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  • #8,841
  • May 19, 2014 8:11am May 19, 2014 8:11am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Tax evasion and smuggling...hmm... Is it because with the restrictions a few high ups can control the supply side of the market?? Yes the new govt does seem extremely business friendly; look at the rupeee and the nifty they have just taken off.. ( I really hope they will be able to deliver to the expectations...
It won't help the gold any way. RBI need cheaper gold. They are waiting. At the moment rupee is in control so they won't even think about a new purchase at least for an year. New Govt want to control price hikes for essentials and crude.
Thathwamasi
  • #8,842
  • May 19, 2014 8:15am May 19, 2014 8:15am
Greetings CT

Quoting ClockTrader
I am awaiting a peak out, that should happen within a day or two.
does this mean that the bearish days are ending?
  • #8,843
  • May 19, 2014 8:17am May 19, 2014 8:17am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Yea, Indians are one of the top spenders as tourists after Singaporeans according to one study (in Asia), on top of this each time they (we) go abroad, they would come back wearing loads of Golden ornaments, on the contrary more than half of the population here lives below poverty line. Gujarat is the place where this new head of India comes from, if he can propel India's GDP like Gujarat, India would easily outperform China, Malaysia, Singapore or any fast growing economy in the world.
I've heard since the gold importation ban; the gold jeweller's of Dubai are doing really well... as loads of indians go and do their gold shopping there now... Is this true?

I have no doubt that India can outperform any other economy... After all back in the start of 1900 it was the largest economy in the world! A counter argument to this would be of perhaps Jim Rogers who is not that optimistic about the indian economy (he thinks that India is going to break into further smaller states) Are there any indications of this... North/south divide etc...?

Anyway the convo is kind of shifting away from Gold; so i better stop..!
  • #8,844
  • May 19, 2014 8:27am May 19, 2014 8:27am
Quoting Karpa
Greetings CT {quote} does this mean that the bearish days are ending?
It should stop climbing within a day or two, I will share here if / when I see that. If its volatile peak out, its very easy to catch. Silent peak outs are hard to trace.

Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} I've heard since the gold importation ban; the gold jeweller's of Dubai are doing really well... as loads of indians go and do their gold shopping there now... Is this true? I have no doubt that India can outperform any other economy... After all back in the start of 1900 it was the largest economy in the world! A counter argument to this would be of perhaps Jim Rogers who is not that optimistic about the indian economy (he thinks that India is going to break into further smaller states) Are there any indications of this... North/south divide...
Yea, thats true, Indians go to Dubai and other neighboring nations to buy Gold where there is no VAT and other such incentives. Most of the West is media driven and being an Indian, I love to educate people about the inside stories. With the new head in place, the possibility of India's breakup look nil. Majority of Indians have united for the first time in last 20 yrs or lot more. The biggest challenge for India is its poverty. The richest here are rich enough to build world's most expensive homes, Antilla in Mumbai for example. Top 3 richest in UK are of Indian origin, 100% Indian background.
Hello World!
  • #8,845
  • May 19, 2014 9:14am May 19, 2014 9:14am
Still moving sideways, but the range is getting narrower, perhaps a breakout is possible soon. Of course, this could move in either direction...
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #8,846
  • May 19, 2014 9:22am May 19, 2014 9:22am
Quoting Spec_And
Still moving sideways, but the range is getting narrower, perhaps a breakout is possible soon. Of course, this could move in either direction...
wave completed, now were heading down south $1283 .
  • #8,847
  • May 19, 2014 9:28am May 19, 2014 9:28am
Quoting acidguy
{quote} wave completed, now were heading down south $1283 .
1263....
Thathwamasi
  • #8,848
  • May 19, 2014 9:32am May 19, 2014 9:32am
Quoting acidguy
{quote} wave completed, now were heading down south $1283 .
That would be the bottom of the range...
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #8,849
  • May 19, 2014 10:22am May 19, 2014 10:22am
Quoting Dafonz
I am wondering how much if any effect the Chinese military build up on the Vietnamese border is having on the small uprun happening right now. We all know that Gold loves Geo-military tensions. http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/6829...ietnam-border/
China Goverment is very greedy!
Vietnamese people loves peace!the war can not happen except China invade Vietnam
I don't know why china bring the oil rig to invade the Vietnam's sea!may be because of the Vietnam east sea is very important for transport between EU,Midle east,Indian to China and Japan!So china want to invade Vietnam to have the Vietnam east sea!
  • #8,850
  • May 19, 2014 10:40am May 19, 2014 10:40am
Hello ClockTrader, have been reading your analysis since you started the thread. Even though it is different way of analysing, but I respect the way you trade especially your discipline. A trader might lose the battle but still winning the war

Anyway here is my take on Gold:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We have been consolidating for the past few weeks, but now it is more and more resembling a bearish pennant. However since no breakout yet, there is no trade based on this pattern yet.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On hourly, 1305 supply area did its job, we may have a bear run to 1290 area, after that we shall see the price action (bounce or break). If we break the range, next possible target would be 1270ish, which might extend further down.
  • #8,851
  • May 19, 2014 10:47am May 19, 2014 10:47am
Gold/Euro

http://www.earnfromfx.com/uploads/im.../gold-euro.jpg
Thathwamasi
  • #8,852
  • May 19, 2014 11:07am May 19, 2014 11:07am
Quoting barefx
Hello ClockTrader, have been reading your analysis since you started the thread. Even though it is different way of analysing, but I respect the way you trade especially your discipline. A trader might lose the battle but still winning the war Anyway here is my take on Gold: {image} We have been consolidating for the past few weeks, but now it is more and more resembling a bearish pennant. However since no breakout yet, there is no trade based on this pattern yet. {image} On hourly, 1305 supply area did its job, we may have a bear run to 1290...
Thanks for being around mate. 1297-98 could not hold, the PA is purely erratic the way I see. Its haywire the way I have been seeing it whole day long. Thank the lords for I've not been trading lately, not even practice, but only one trade on paper lately.

Its about 12 pm, time to call it a day. I hope the peak is clear within a day or two. I shall continue to remain on sidelines until June, this month-end or next month-end, we'll see.

Trade light, trade safe, Wish you all good luck!
Hello World!
  • #8,853
  • May 19, 2014 11:35am May 19, 2014 11:35am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Thanks for being around mate. 1297-98 could not hold, the PA is purely erratic the way I see. Its haywire the way I have been seeing it whole day long. Thank the lords for I've not been trading lately, not even practice, but only one trade on paper lately. Its about 12 pm, time to call it a day. I hope the peak is clear within a day or two. I shall continue to remain on sidelines until June, this month-end or next month-end, we'll see. Trade light, trade safe, Wish you all good luck!
Yeah, waiting for direction in a ranging market is seriously no fun.

I think that's all we have for today's market, trade safe and green pips
  • #8,854
  • May 19, 2014 11:50am May 19, 2014 11:50am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} It should stop climbing within a day or two, I will share here if / when I see that. If its volatile peak out, its very easy to catch. Silent peak outs are hard to trace. {quote} Yea, thats true, Indians go to Dubai and other neighboring nations to buy Gold where there is no VAT and other such incentives. Most of the West is media driven and being an Indian, I love to educate people about the inside stories. With the new head in place, the possibility of India's breakup look nil. Majority of Indians have united for the first time in last...
Looks like Bloomberg was thinking the same thing: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...trictions.html

* I find it funny how Bloomberg or any news channel tries to give meaning to a change in prices*
  • #8,855
  • May 19, 2014 12:25pm May 19, 2014 12:25pm
If gold holds 1294 level for the next couple of hours; hidden bullish divergence might push prices back up again...

Even though the usd dollar index has bounced back up again... It probably will meet a lot of resistance on the upside and will retreat lower again....
  • #8,856
  • May 19, 2014 12:31pm May 19, 2014 12:31pm
Quoting waleed.khan
If gold holds 1294 level for the next couple of hours; hidden bullish divergence might push prices back up again... Even though the usd dollar index has bounced back up again... It probably will meet a lot of resistance on the upside and will retreat lower again....
I think you already know about FOMC minute release on Wednesday. Hidden bullish divergence will not help sentiments.
Thathwamasi
  • #8,857
  • May 19, 2014 12:40pm May 19, 2014 12:40pm
Bearish potential .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: download1.png Size: 167 KB
Find your passion and work hard
  • #8,858
  • May 19, 2014 12:55pm May 19, 2014 12:55pm
Quoting vrshaiju
{quote} I think you already know about FOMC minute release on Wednesday. Hidden bullish divergence will not help sentiments.
FOMC mintues are not going to affect the market much...as they will have nothing new to say...Everything is already priced in right now...but that being said there could be $10 dollar spikes in either direction...

Ukraine war is still in the backdrop (the market has retraced perhaps because of the earlier news that was out which said that Russia has withdrawn troops from the border...which now is being said that isn't true; hence the confusion which will loom until something decisive on Ukraine doesn't manifest)

This only means that price will be stuck in this range for longer... but that being said a lot of the technicals especially the ones on the daily and weekly are suggesting that a solid base (bottom) is being formed... Just notice the candles on the daily chart since april 22nd; We have a greater number of larger bullish candles and the wicks seem to be larger on the bottom too; which suggests that (as in 1268 to 1283) has become a major value area...

In my opinion Gold should only be considered a short after a close below 1265 and likewise a long with a close above 1315.... Anything in between is really risky and one is gonna get it wrong more than they get it right!
  • #8,859
  • May 19, 2014 1:06pm May 19, 2014 1:06pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} FOMC mintues are not going to affect the market much...as they will have nothing new to say...Everything is already priced in right now...but that being said there could be $10 dollar spikes in either direction... Ukraine war is still in the backdrop (the market has retraced perhaps because of the earlier news that was out which said that Russia has withdrawn troops from the border...which now is being said that isn't true; hence the confusion which will loom until something decisive on Ukraine doesn't manifest) This only means that price...
According to me Ukraine news consumed as correction spikes. This spikes wasted a lot of time which need to reach the bottom target. My trade strategy based on price over time. I consider to bull Gold from the range between 1260-1240 towards 1st target 1360 and second is 1448-60 which yearly pivot level. I am bearish on Gold for next 10 more years. I believe that this swing ends like falling wedge before moving higher..!
Thathwamasi
  • #8,860
  • Edited 1:43pm May 19, 2014 1:18pm | Edited 1:43pm
Quoting vrshaiju
{quote} I believe that this swing ends like falling wedge before moving higher..!
Do you mean a bearish pennant (or even a converging triangle)? A wedge would need to have lower lows...? Either way in most patterns like this one should notice volumes and how they exhaust towards the break out...

In this case the volumes have increased in the recent 10 to 15 days....so I really don't know. Well that being said market can go either way...hehe

$1240-60 so that is your downward target in the medium term and then you see price go to 1400 and then down for the next 10 years? I wish I could be more optimistic about the world
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