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  • #8,741
  • May 15, 2014 2:57pm May 15, 2014 2:57pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} DXY below 200 sma XAU above 200 sma Direction ?
Judging within only that context..direction is not

Ofcourse other things have to be taken into consideration too...hence the confusion (but there is a slight bullish tilt right now)
  • #8,742
  • May 15, 2014 3:28pm May 15, 2014 3:28pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} I did agree with you guys too 100% before Yellens last speech... Ever since then... and through her tone it has become apparent that interest rate hikes are not gonna come until 2016 or even 2017. There is a lot of problem in housing still and that is the main concern. NFP numbres, according to yellen now have less weight because they don't take into account the participation rate...(hence it is not a solid barometer anymore) Gold can certainly fall...but I don't see it fall below its 1 year lows... There will be a lot of physical demand...

You make good points here. Labor participation rate is a bad sign, and housing is weakening. However, Yellen already leaked interest rate hikes in her first speech. She is only backtracking to keep markets calm. Moreover, PPI numbers could very well determine direction (or limit downside) and the Fed is aware that it could be causing another bubble by keeping rates so low out to 2016 and beyond. My guess is that the Fed will start hinting at rate hikes early in 2015 though they may not happen till later next year. Nonetheless, I believe gold just might make it down to 1200 within the next 3-5 months.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #8,743
  • May 15, 2014 3:32pm May 15, 2014 3:32pm
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  • #8,744
  • May 15, 2014 3:34pm May 15, 2014 3:34pm
Quoting JimmyC
Note the Daily Review the DXY Daily and note price is above the 200 sma Then decide... Which side will this break? Symmetrical Triangle... {image}
I like it to go up up up
  • #8,745
  • May 15, 2014 3:46pm May 15, 2014 3:46pm
Quoting acidguy
{quote} if u see just 30% of the picture look like in a little uptrend if you see the whole picture look like is about to collapse to new lows in the next 2 weeks. i bet the short term investors are scalping right now or in the sidelines as there is not clear trend defined. the long term investors are watching whats happening closely and the thing is failing to make new highs, if 1266 support is damaged, watch gold collapse to $1220 quickly.
i like the thinking on that one,regardsE
  • #8,746
  • May 15, 2014 5:00pm May 15, 2014 5:00pm
Quoting anton.olff
{quote} You make good points here. Labor participation rate is a bad sign, and housing is weakening. However, Yellen already leaked interest rate hikes in her first speech. She is only backtracking to keep markets calm. Moreover, PPI numbers could very well determine direction (or limit downside) and the Fed is aware that it could be causing another bubble by keeping rates so low out to 2016 and beyond. My guess is that the Fed will start hinting at rate hikes early in 2015 though they may not happen till later next year. Nonetheless, I believe...
You see it is that assumption she leaked interest rate hikes that is causing all of this bearish bias... but at the time she said that was weakness in housing obvious or was it played down due bad weather...? Secondly we are assuming that she is 100% in control...it was her first public appearance as Fed chair; she could have also made a genuine mistake by saying that and in her latest meeting correcting herself.

But yeah you are right...Otherwise it does seem that things are improving & gold can definitely go down to 1200 in the short or medium term... Do you see it go lower than 1200 though? Plus do you think Ukraine issue will be resolve my May 25th?
  • #8,747
  • May 15, 2014 5:05pm May 15, 2014 5:05pm
Quoting waleed.khan
At this moment... The USD index look like its going to post a shooting star pinbar at the daily close. This comes after yesterdays hanging man and touching the 50 ema. This means that we are going to see a bearish leg in the days to come... This can be further confirmed by the bullish pin bar being made by the euro! The stocks are continuing to post declines and look that they might further too... still have to wait and see what happens at todays close... All this should be bullish for gold in the days to come. As of right now Gold is on 1295; but...
Gold did not close above 100 sma...we must be careful now as pa could easily spike down and up from its recent lows...

also the USD index did not close as a pinbar...so it becomes less obvious
  • #8,748
  • May 15, 2014 5:45pm May 15, 2014 5:45pm
Damn thing is if the xau price skyfalls id want to catch a good entry, but maybe so many traders will have the same idea and all place SL just below 1200, so price may push 1150s to clear and then swing up.. i just dont know where to buy below 1240, id have to wait for my indys to give their go ahead, this is the only product i have bias for.. to go long, so my plan is only to buy based on my indys
trade paper or sift for the real thing?
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  • #8,749
  • May 15, 2014 8:28pm May 15, 2014 8:28pm
Quoting bernbeach
{quote} Well, I think you truly had your socks match here... Excellent
Thanks champ..
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #8,750
  • May 15, 2014 8:57pm May 15, 2014 8:57pm
Quoting Verve
Damn thing is if the xau price skyfalls id want to catch a good entry, but maybe so many traders will have the same idea and all place SL just below 1200, so price may push 1150s to clear and then swing up.. i just dont know where to buy below 1240, id have to wait for my indys to give their go ahead, this is the only product i have bias for.. to go long, so my plan is only to buy based on my indys trade paper or sift for the real thing? {image}
charts is not good for gold, if your are holding longs, take care of it, just a kind reminder.
if price down 1293, 1280 will be next target.
  • #8,751
  • May 15, 2014 10:25pm May 15, 2014 10:25pm
I'm waiting break 1307-1302 (if later) level to go up to 133x (perhaps 134x-135x (if later) and then go down (and then again up to 13Xx++)
(my opinion)
where are we? we are here. where are we going? ...
  • #8,752
  • May 15, 2014 10:59pm May 15, 2014 10:59pm
Quoting SameulQi
{quote} charts is not good for gold, if your are holding longs, take care of it, just a kind reminder. if price down 1293, 1280 will be next target.
yep, weekly confirms with the ichi indicator that we may see a 1284.31 next week and then a 1267.99 the week after.
However most of my smaller time frame charts bar the D1 are just ranging.

Fundamentals could blow all this out of the water as per usual.
But I have placed a short on the current M1 spike we just saw.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #8,753
  • May 15, 2014 11:08pm May 15, 2014 11:08pm
I am starting to agree with CT Trader... I will start buying up dips like nobodies business, hell may even mortgage the house and buy gold (it will keep me warm and safe from weather, won't it)... Why, read this..

http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/ar...-us-dollar-era

So two scenarios...

1. China actually do slow down and cause a panic in the market and a major rally to gold occurs.
2. US does in fact spark another GFC or a very jittery market and as above everybody rallies to safe havens.

So I will be looking for positions around these marks, in reverse order, so will try to get the bottom and then work up adding positions as the bull party rages on. Prices below will not be seen for another couple of weeks so be patient and don't jump on a long just yet.. hell even better don't do what I am about to do.

1.0 lot @ 1284.xx
1.0 lot @ 1270.xx
1.0 lot @ 1260.xx
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #8,754
  • May 15, 2014 11:23pm May 15, 2014 11:23pm
Quoting whackdiddy
I am starting to agree with CT Trader... I will start buying up dips like nobodies business, hell may even mortgage the house and buy gold (it will keep me warm and safe from weather, won't it)... Why, read this.. http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/ar...-us-dollar-era So two scenarios... 1. China actually do slow down and cause a panic in the market and a major rally to gold occurs. 2. US does in fact spark another GFC or a very jittery market and as above everybody rallies to safe havens. So I will be...
If there is a panic in China with some Housing Bubble collapse or credit crisis Gold will plunge as the demand will be reduced deeply,
the chinese has been the No.1 factor of current High Gold Prices.
in this scenario China will stick to fiat Euro, Dollar forex reserves to try to revive the economy

for Gold to rally has to be the other way Around, USA in economical trouble so foreign investors fly out of USA assets and refuge into precious metals like gold.

or the main Catalyst, emerging Inflation Pressures in the World and low growth.
  • #8,755
  • May 15, 2014 11:44pm May 15, 2014 11:44pm
Quoting acidguy
{quote} If there is a panic in China with some Housing Bubble collapse or credit crisis Gold will plunge as the demand will be reduced deeply, the chinese has been the No.1 factor of current High Gold Prices. in this scenario China will stick to fiat Euro, Dollar forex reserves to try to revive the economy for Gold to rally has to be the other way Around, USA in economical trouble so foreign investors fly out of USA assets and refuge into precious metals like gold. or the main Catalyst, emerging Inflation Pressures in the World and low growth.
Will take that onboard, thanks acid..
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #8,756
  • May 15, 2014 11:48pm May 15, 2014 11:48pm
Quoting acidguy
{quote} If there is a panic in China with some Housing Bubble collapse or credit crisis Gold will plunge as the demand will be reduced deeply, the chinese has been the No.1 factor of current High Gold Prices. in this scenario China will stick to fiat Euro, Dollar forex reserves to try to revive the economy for Gold to rally has to be the other way Around, USA in economical trouble so foreign investors fly out of USA assets and refuge into precious metals like gold. or the main Catalyst, emerging Inflation Pressures in the World and low growth.
And yes, I had forgotten that China is / was buying gold like crazy. So yes if they get in trouble they will try to offload large amounts, so yes and yes you are 100% correct.

Thanks..
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #8,757
  • May 16, 2014 12:34am May 16, 2014 12:34am
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} And yes, I had forgotten that China is / was buying gold like crazy. So yes if they get in trouble they will try to offload large amounts, so yes and yes you are 100% correct. Thanks..
From my understanding it is almost impossible to export Gold bullion out of China. Even exporting simple Gold jewelry involves numerous hoops to jump through.

http://www.novexcn.com/carry_gold_silver.html

So if the Chinese aunties may wish to liquidate their Gold en-mass at some point in time, it wont be going back into Western Vaults and supply chain.
It will be interesting to see in such a scenario who sets the price with artificial supply restrictions and imbalances

Also the Chinese have long memories and they haven't forgotten the injustice at the hands of the British who pillaged and pilfered their mass reserves of precious silver during the Opium wars, so i cant ever see them relaxing those restrictions.
  • #8,758
  • May 16, 2014 12:39am May 16, 2014 12:39am
Quoting whackdiddy
{quote} yep, weekly confirms with the ichi indicator that we may see a 1284.31 next week and then a 1267.99 the week after. However most of my smaller time frame charts bar the D1 are just ranging. Fundamentals could blow all this out of the water as per usual. But I have placed a short on the current M1 spike we just saw.
You trade on M1?
  • #8,759
  • May 16, 2014 1:11am May 16, 2014 1:11am
Quoting whackdiddy
I am starting to agree with CT Trader... I will start buying up dips like nobodies business, hell may even mortgage the house and buy gold (it will keep me warm and safe from weather, won't it)... Why, read this.. http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/ar...-us-dollar-era So two scenarios... 1. China actually do slow down and cause a panic in the market and a major rally to gold occurs. 2. US does in fact spark another GFC or a very jittery market and as above everybody rallies to safe havens. So I will be...

Do you still stick to this plan?
  • #8,760
  • May 16, 2014 1:18am May 16, 2014 1:18am
Quoting Dafonz
{quote} From my understanding it is almost impossible to export Gold bullion out of China. Even exporting simple Gold jewelry involves numerous hoops to jump through. http://www.novexcn.com/carry_gold_silver.html So if the Chinese aunties may wish to liquidate their Gold en-mass at some point in time, it wont be going back into Western Vaults and supply chain. It will be interesting to see in such a scenario who sets the price with artificial supply restrictions and imbalances Also the Chinese have long memories and they haven't forgotten...
Interesting...
I don't really see China going downhill anytime soon, personally I think it is hype and scare mongering.
But the US is seeming too hot right now, with everything up and so quickly..
As always will be interesting to see what plays out.
A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
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