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  • #8,321
  • May 7, 2014 5:59pm May 7, 2014 5:59pm
Based on looking at what happened last time when we had a similar drop, we could drop again to mid 1270's before seeing a bounce back again unless of course Gold started its bearish run. Gold is forecasted to see a drop in the near future and is currently just above forecasted price for May at 1286 so buying calls for price fighter then forecasted calls would be risky now or a gamble.


http://forecasts.org/gold.htm
  • #8,322
  • May 7, 2014 6:00pm May 7, 2014 6:00pm
Previous drop
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  • #8,323
  • May 7, 2014 6:18pm May 7, 2014 6:18pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} I would be careful with a long right now... let price consolidate a bit... the 4 hr candles are long in length..wait for a bullish candle for an entry or if the the price starts to spike up wait for atleast a close above 1302 on the day for a long entry tomorrow (200 sma)
Agreed, where I previously said I would be looking for a long today, I'm not convinced we have hit the low for this movement yet.

Though this is a gold only forum, I don't always enduldge in the yellow metal, however I use its PA to help determine my Silver entries.

While Silver is now sitting at 19.3 (support), Gold still has room to leg down, which will pull silver through to its next support 19.1.. that is now my target, and Gold I would be hesitant to open a long until we test the 127x - 126x areas.
  • #8,324
  • May 7, 2014 6:27pm May 7, 2014 6:27pm
Quoting Mitchoss
{quote} Agreed, where I previously said I would be looking for a long today, I'm not convinced we have hit the low for this movement yet. Though this is a gold only forum, I don't always enduldge in the yellow metal, however I use its PA to help determine my Silver entries. While Silver is now sitting at 19.3 (support), Gold still has room to leg down, which will pull silver through to its next support 19.1.. that is now my target, and Gold I would be hesitant to open a long until we test the 127x - 126x areas.
That is what I was thinking.
  • #8,325
  • May 7, 2014 6:39pm May 7, 2014 6:39pm
Quoting Mitchoss
{quote} Agreed, where I previously said I would be looking for a long today, I'm not convinced we have hit the low for this movement yet. Though this is a gold only forum, I don't always enduldge in the yellow metal, however I use its PA to help determine my Silver entries. While Silver is now sitting at 19.3 (support), Gold still has room to leg down, which will pull silver through to its next support 19.1.. that is now my target, and Gold I would be hesitant to open a long until we test the 127x - 126x areas.
hmm..yes maybe.. It looks like there is hidden bullish divergence on the verge of forming on golds 4hr chart; still a little early to say as the cross has not taken place; so maybe it can retrace lower!

but if we get the hidden divergence; plus the daily candle rebounded on the 100 daily sma could mean a rebound today... Perhaps a full blown reversal candle! (who knows...)

Good luck..as it one should wait for confirmation! Cheers!
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  • #8,326
  • May 7, 2014 7:55pm May 7, 2014 7:55pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} hmm..yes maybe.. It looks like there is hidden bullish divergence on the verge of forming on golds 4hr chart; still a little early to say as the cross has not taken place; so maybe it can retrace lower! but if we get the hidden divergence; plus the daily candle rebounded on the 100 daily sma could mean a rebound today... Perhaps a full blown reversal candle! (who knows...) Good luck..as it one should wait for confirmation! Cheers! {image}
Agreed, I think the two metals have the ability to make some serious movement to the upside, however one thing I've learnt in my years is; just when you think you've seen the last of a leg down/up, there is always one last move to knock out the weak hands. THOSE are the moves to wait for, because the retracement is usually hard and fast.

Example happened last week, all signals were buy, friday night had one last push down but then we flipped to the upside and smoked the shorts shooting over $1300.
Though we moved -$18 yesterday in gold, don't think its over until we take out 1295/1300 again.

I do expect to touch 1295, and then straight back down. If not, expect us to re-visit 1300+ pretty damn quick, and I would be closing all my shorts.

Mitch
  • #8,327
  • May 7, 2014 7:56pm May 7, 2014 7:56pm
Quoting greenblue
{quote} and this what i call an amazing "quote"
  • #8,328
  • May 7, 2014 8:00pm May 7, 2014 8:00pm
Quoting Mitchoss
{quote} Agreed, I think the two metals have the ability to make some serious movement to the upside, however one thing I've learnt in my years is; just when you think you've seen the last of a leg down/up, there is always one last move to knock out the weak hands. THOSE are the moves to wait for, because the retracement is usually hard and fast. Example happened last week, all signals were buy, friday night had one last push down but then we flipped to the upside and smoked the shorts shooting over $1300. Though we moved -$18 yesterday...
They come in like an earthquake for some tree shaking to get them loose apples to drop. Usually purposely done when either they see that everyone is either all in bullish or bearish.
  • #8,329
  • May 7, 2014 8:11pm May 7, 2014 8:11pm
Quoting Mitchoss
{quote} Example happened last week, all signals were buy, friday night had one last push down but then we flipped to the upside and smoked the shorts shooting over $1300.
haha! Yeah that was a crazy day! I dont know if you read the business insider link i posted for that day...Even people like Paul Tudor Jones were dumbfounded on that NFP movement!

But yeah I agree it can easily retrace to 1295-1300 and then go crashing...! Better wait for beaking above 1302 or then finding support in the 1260-70 areas!

I still hold the view that shorting is not a good idea until price breaks out the bottom $1268 level.
  • #8,330
  • May 7, 2014 8:15pm May 7, 2014 8:15pm
Gold always gets pounded like clockwork anytime Yellen is testifying in front of Congress, or whenever the FOMC makes a statement regarding monetary policy and the overall health of the economy; gold also gets beaten down right after the release of the NFP report.

If your bullish gold, and are long, pay attention to the calendar (there's one here, and Barron's has one as well), and if any of the aforementioned dates are looming, exit your position beforehand, then reenter it afterwards.

This will save you a lot of money and a lot of pain.
  • #8,331
  • May 7, 2014 8:22pm May 7, 2014 8:22pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} haha! Yeah that was a crazy day! I dont know if you read the business insider link i posted for that day...Even people like Paul Tudor Jones were dumbfounded on that NFP movement! But yeah I agree it can easily retrace to 1295-1300 and then go crashing...! Better wait for beaking above 1302 or then finding support in the 1260-70 areas! I still hold the view that shorting is not a good idea until price breaks out the bottom $1268 level.
I didn't see that one, where might I read that?
  • #8,332
  • May 7, 2014 8:29pm May 7, 2014 8:29pm
Quoting Jason W
Gold always gets pounded like clockwork anytime Yellen is testifying in front of Congress, or whenever the FOMC makes a statement regarding monetary policy and the overall health of the economy; gold also gets beaten down right after the release of the NFP report. If your bullish gold, and are long, pay attention to the calendar (there's one here, and Barron's has one as well), and if any of the aforementioned dates are looming, exit your position beforehand, then reenter it afterwards. This will save you a lot of money and a lot of pain.
Another source that some people tend to neglect is how much impact Options/Futures expiration can affect the PA in the closing days of the contracts.

I encourage anyone here who trades these metals to understand what you are dealing with. My ritual on a weekend while the market is down is to read the COT reports (commitment of traders). Compare movements from week to week basis. When I first got into these metals I started graphing all the way back from 6months prior to the crash in 2008, to see how managed money, commercials etc were distributing there funds (long/short).

ie. commercials add shorts, yet price rises for the week. why? then start formuating a justifcation that satisfies YOU. Looking at world events, USDX, technical analysis of charts (are we overbought/undersold), news, interviews.

Research, research, research. This is serious business
  • #8,333
  • May 7, 2014 8:39pm May 7, 2014 8:39pm
Quoting Mitchoss
{quote} I didn't see that one, where might I read that?
http://www.businessinsider.com/ptj-o...-number-2014-5
  • #8,334
  • May 7, 2014 8:39pm May 7, 2014 8:39pm
Quote
Another source that some people tend to neglect is how much impact Options/Futures expiration can affect the PA in the closing days of the contracts

Yeah, forgot to mention expiry. VERY important. Bullion banks love to push ITM calls OTM.

As far as the COT, only casually paid attention to it. Never to a degree that it actually influenced a trading decision though.
  • #8,335
  • May 7, 2014 8:43pm May 7, 2014 8:43pm
Quoting Mitchoss
{quote} Another source that some people tend to neglect is how much impact Options/Futures expiration can affect the PA in the closing days of the contracts. I encourage anyone here who trades these metals to understand what you are dealing with. My ritual on a weekend while the market is down is to read the COT reports (commitment of traders). Compare movements from week to week basis. When I first got into these metals I started graphing all the way back from 6months prior to the crash in 2008, to see how managed money, commercials etc were distributing...
Yes anything that can give you an edge...

But I do want to digress here a bit that sometimes people can even overly complicate things... everyone is different and so is their approach. Some people can stick to a simple strategy and end up with results. Others need a little more things to get them moving...
  • #8,336
  • May 7, 2014 8:51pm May 7, 2014 8:51pm
You mentioned a very good point on option expiry and even future contract expiries on the comex are important!
  • #8,337
  • May 7, 2014 8:52pm May 7, 2014 8:52pm
A simple strategy is best.

For me, I look for buys and sells at support and resistance; and I use Andrew's Pitchfork with sliding parallel lines in addition to traditional support and resistance.

I also have an indicator which highlights inside bars, which are quite useful when looking for a continuation of trade or a reversal at a key area of S/R.
  • #8,338
  • May 7, 2014 8:56pm May 7, 2014 8:56pm
hello guys. i'm new here.
just started trading gold and having a really hard time studying behaviour of gold..
my demo and live account have win and lose ratio of 1:1. not so good for me.

i'm just trying to get a simple indicator to match gold behaviour. is that anyone here using murrey math line for gold chart? is it relevant enough?

been trying so many indicator to get SR lines right and how the trend goes..but nothing hold more than a week for me..next week of gold will show very different behaviour and i'm trading short term,,mostly entry/exit in 15M and following trend in H1 or H4. mostly close the trade after 300-500 pips.

please advice. thanks before guys.
  • #8,339
  • May 7, 2014 9:00pm May 7, 2014 9:00pm
Quoting Jason W
I also have an indicator which highlights inside bars, which are quite useful when looking for a continuation of trade or a reversal at a key area of S/R.
Is this like a scanner for inside bars on mt4...can you please share it with us

*sorry my question mark for some odd reason has stopped working*
  • #8,340
  • May 7, 2014 9:41pm May 7, 2014 9:41pm
Quoting Mitchoss
{quote} Another source that some people tend to neglect is how much impact Options/Futures expiration can affect the PA in the closing days of the contracts. I encourage anyone here who trades these metals to understand what you are dealing with. My ritual on a weekend while the market is down is to read the COT reports (commitment of traders). Compare movements from week to week basis. When I first got into these metals I started graphing all the way back from 6months prior to the crash in 2008, to see how managed money, commercials etc were distributing...
i agree.

You can see COT Index (%) to ensure it's oversold or overbought weekly. it's up to you to decide how percent overbought or oversold The Large/Non Commercial (who follow the trend) is. The Data release every friday, but in www.timingcharts.com come every tuesday.

Hope this useful.
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