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  • #8,301
  • May 7, 2014 2:12pm May 7, 2014 2:12pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Well she said lower interest rates fora considerable amount of time; and housing market still not good....
Ah, so she just confirmed last month's numbers and expectations. These are already included in price.
  • #8,302
  • May 7, 2014 2:14pm May 7, 2014 2:14pm
i guess will find out tomorrow after ecb
if they dont introduce measures to cope with inflation eu will target 1.4 and higher and maybe gold will follow...who knows
  • #8,303
  • May 7, 2014 2:17pm May 7, 2014 2:17pm
even if they are included in the price, why did it still continue down? not asking for a shoot up but the news had the total opposite reaction to what it should?? no??
Or it had no impact at all and Gold just followed its trend and now shooting back up?? (extremely slowly - making me doubt this is the case)
  • #8,304
  • May 7, 2014 2:18pm May 7, 2014 2:18pm
Quoting Super_Mario
{quote} Ah, so she just confirmed last month's numbers and expectations. These are already included in price.
Last few meetings she didn't indicate lower interest rates for a "considerable" amount of time... The mood was bearish! Plus the housing data is off concern to her... There is more happening here...The ukraine issue is just making the picture murky... but people will wake to this soon.. Just look at the usd index..it looks hopeless on the daily (and perhaps it was pricing this in already) it has much more downside left!
  • #8,305
  • May 7, 2014 2:26pm May 7, 2014 2:26pm
Quoting Super_Mario
{quote} what she said? all i see is that ETFs are still butthurting and selling off, almost in panic. however, what they sell is very welcome by buyers : {image}
Which etf's are you talking about? Look at the indexes they all have rebounded...nasdaq is the only one which is down and there are different reasons for that!

Todays fall was because of russias announcement of deescalation...and in the midst yellen said zero rates for long long time... the markets are still looking things through a tunnel vision...
  • #8,306
  • May 7, 2014 2:29pm May 7, 2014 2:29pm
what are the expected short term and long term targets for you waleed?
  • #8,307
  • May 7, 2014 2:38pm May 7, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Which etf's are you talking about? Look at the indexes they all have rebounded...nasdaq is the only one which is down and there are different reasons for that!
If you are monitoring this subject you should already know...
If not - this one as example :
www.spdrgoldshares.com/assets/dynamic/GLD/GLD_US_archive_EN.csv - 782 tonnes and dropping
And you can find rest figures for other major ETFs


Quoting waleed.khan
Todays fall was because of russias announcement of deescalation...and in the midst yellen said zero rates for long long time... the markets are still looking things through a tunnel vision...
You still trying to find reasons for things already happened...
  • #8,308
  • May 7, 2014 2:41pm May 7, 2014 2:41pm
Quoting Yus191
what are the expected short term and long term targets for you waleed?
I don't like to call targets and that even on a daily basis! I`m more of a swing-momemtum trader... I only use major support resistance levels as cues for my broader bias! Right now as long as we stay above 1260 I will remain bullish and enter long! If below I will be think of going short (and that even very hesitantly because it defies logic...)

For me technicals must align with fundamentals in order to take the trade...even though traders can trade solely on technicals; I personally cannot do that! I need confluence for a major trend change!

For the upside the near term upside target is 1318-1330 and 1344-48 level...these are all past support resistance levels!
  • #8,309
  • May 7, 2014 2:53pm May 7, 2014 2:53pm
Quoting Super_Mario
{quote} If you are monitoring this subject you should already know... If not - this one as example : www.spdrgoldshares.com/assets/dynamic/GLD/GLD_US_archive_EN.csv - 782 tonnes and dropping And you can find rest figures for other major ETFs {quote} You still trying to find reasons for things already happened...
I`m sorry but please help me understand why are you using ETF like SPDR as a gauge... for future price direction and sentiment...

have you read their disclaimer:
SPDR Gold Shares does not represent that this information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. SPDR Gold Shares is not responsible for any loss, damage, expense or claim, howsoever arising, suffered as a result of reliance on the data contained within this file.

*Volume is a lagging indicator*
  • #8,310
  • May 7, 2014 3:20pm May 7, 2014 3:20pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} I`m sorry but please help me understand why are you using ETF like SPDR as a gauge... for future price direction and sentiment... have you read their disclaimer: SPDR Gold Shares does not represent that this information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. SPDR Gold Shares is not responsible for any loss, damage, expense or claim, howsoever arising, suffered as a result of reliance on the data contained within this file.
I've already explained in this topic my own view of Gold market, you can search for my older posts but in few lines
1. Gold market on this planet is totally manipulated by few families (I call them puppeteers for ease of use). Real demand/offer for metal has no longer primary role. They have virtually infinite liquidity and able to do anything with price and FOR price.
2. Manipulations are well structured in several levels/stages. During some stages puppeteers cannot physically hide their "preparations". Because of volume and because of very small time they have to implement these stages. As example - you will NEVER "see" neither WHEN they are accumulating their main position nor the DIRECTION of this position. But there are some parts of "play" which must be done very quick and with quite big volume. For example "trend direction change".
3. All my trading is limited to finding these situations ("patterns" if you want) and trading them. It's set of information gathered from different sources (two or three of them I already revealed in favor of possible finding of person who's got same/similar approach to Gold trading). Of course my methods are far away from being perfect but any trading assumes some losses. Of course this way of trading is not quite scalable and assumes quite small volumes (the problem of scalability is the one that actually makes me write on forums searching for people who I could discuss this problem with and possibly find solution).

Anyway, sorry for adding channel to your graph and invoking this useless dialog - it's really pity that all you wanted to see is that stupid disclaimer which you can find on almost any web site because mistakes happen and butts should be covered. Wish you profits !
  • #8,311
  • May 7, 2014 3:24pm May 7, 2014 3:24pm
lol ty for the explanation mario.... so in ur opinion Gold is going down? bearish ?
  • #8,312
  • May 7, 2014 3:29pm May 7, 2014 3:29pm
Quoting waleed.khan
*Volume is a lagging indicator*
If you talk about cumulative delta I post in some of my graphs :
1. It's not an indicator (i always add "" when call it indicator)
2. It's not used as volume itself, but as DIFFERENCE of volumes
3. Even 1 minute lag is fine to give me the information I want and to act.
4. Talking about indicators - it's the ONLY information (except price itself) that is "produced by exchange" and not "calculated by terminal"

If you talk about SPDR net volume of metal - a week's lag is still enough for me.
This information has low importance for me.
I just said that they are selling but you automatically concluded that i am using it "as a gauge... for future price direction and sentiment..."
It's very rare case for me to mention something like "future price direction and sentiment" in public. Money likes silence.
  • #8,313
  • May 7, 2014 3:34pm May 7, 2014 3:34pm
No bulls reaction at all

seems this beast is heavily bearish
Don't give up
  • #8,314
  • May 7, 2014 3:36pm May 7, 2014 3:36pm
Quoting Super_Mario
{quote} I've already explained in this topic my own view of Gold market, you can search for my older posts but in few lines 1. Gold market on this planet is totally manipulated by few families (I call them puppeteers for ease of use). Real demand/offer for metal has no longer primary role. They have virtually infinite liquidity and able to do anything with price and FOR price. 2. Manipulations are well structured in several levels/stages. During some stages puppeteers cannot physically hide their "preparations". Because of volume and because of...
Hey man! No need to apologize... I like opposing debate as long as it has some structure of logic! As long as no one takes offence; something good always comes out of it! No worries...The reason why I asked for your opinion in the first place was because I remember that you only go long gold... so I thought this news might change your mind...

Anyway in your point 2... you suggested that puppeteers do this very quickly and with high volume...well what do you think of the volume on the day gold went down to 1268 and rebounded....wasnt that a puppeteer playÉ. Secondly and by no means do I intend to bash you here but if your whole strategy revolves around finding that sudden scale in volume which happens unexpectedly; why are you tracking the daily SPDR volumes...after all once these puppeteers do make their play the price will be on a different tangent and you will only find these volumes later on in the day...I mean would these volumes not be obvious in PA alone... Just curious
  • #8,315
  • May 7, 2014 3:39pm May 7, 2014 3:39pm
Quoting Super_Mario
{quote} If you talk about cumulative delta I post in some of my graphs : 1. It's not an indicator (i always add "" when call it indicator) 2. It's not used as volume itself, but as DIFFERENCE of volumes 3. Even 1 minute lag is fine to give me the information I want and to act. 4. Talking about indicators - it's the ONLY information (except price itself) that is "produced by exchange" and not "calculated by terminal" If you talk about SPDR net volume of metal - a week's lag is still enough for me. This information has low importance for me. I just...
It sounds a lot like the MACD...except for Volume as opposed to price!
  • #8,316
  • May 7, 2014 3:42pm May 7, 2014 3:42pm
Quoting geomink
No bulls reaction at all seems this beast is heavily bearish
Im thinking the same Geo but the thing ive noticed with Gold it will randomly for no reason all of a sudden at time swing without warning, so watch out
  • #8,317
  • May 7, 2014 3:47pm May 7, 2014 3:47pm
Quoting Yus191
{quote} Im thinking the same Geo but the thing ive noticed with Gold it will randomly for no reason all of a sudden at time swing without warning, so watch out
right now it seems like a doji is being formed on the 4hr chart... Wait for it to form...and once and (if) price clears on its upside..there might be room for the upside... During asian hours price usually does retrace a little bit! but by no means are these good levels for entry as risk is still there for either side! wait atleast for price to go above 1300 if you want to enter long!
  • #8,318
  • May 7, 2014 4:04pm May 7, 2014 4:04pm
Quoting bonnzi
i guess will find out tomorrow after ecb if they dont introduce measures to cope with inflation eu will target 1.4 and higher and maybe gold will follow...who knows
Nice... a forward looking thought!
  • #8,319
  • May 7, 2014 4:07pm May 7, 2014 4:07pm
Quoting waleed.khan
I remember that you only go long gold... so I thought this news might change your mind...
I am still only playing long and only long term. And this is not "news", it's just another confirmation that YET nothing changed


Quoting waleed.khan
Anyway in your point 2... you suggested that puppeteers do this very quickly and with high volume...well what do you think of the volume on the day gold went down to 1268 and rebounded....wasnt that a puppeteer playÉ.
I think I posted screenshot that day as a call for some brainstorming.
It was not one of the "patterns" I am waiting/scanning for, but it was worth discussion. Pity none was interested.
However what happened is good answer why I am never short on Gold - I don't have "virtually unlimited liquidity". Unlike most of sell offs which are well planned (as example currently to push investors out of real metal), most of north spikes are panic buys, related with fear of people that want "safe heaven" for some reason. I cannot afford them because I cannot "see" few minutes before the spike. So I prefer to be in the same direction with panickers.


Quoting waleed.khan
Secondly and by no means do I intend to bash you here but if your whole strategy revolves around finding that sudden scale in volume which happens unexpectedly; why are you tracking the daily SPDR volumes...after all once these puppeteers do make their play the price will be on a different tangent and you will only find these volumes later on in the day...I mean would these volumes not be obvious in PA alone... Just curious
I cannot physically monitor the market all the time and I am too old (and lazy) to write code which will be doing this monitoring.
So I use these inputs (SPDR, Comex reports etc are just some of them) to see that something CHANGING, something out of "usual", so I am prepared to monitor lower timeframes and if THERE is also something "unusual" I will be monitoring DOM and ticks to jump in the train, wait for spike, set my stop to zero-loss area and go to sleep. Usually bottoms happen on low liquidity asian sessions
  • #8,320
  • May 7, 2014 4:42pm May 7, 2014 4:42pm
Quoting Super_Mario
{quote} I am still only playing long and only long term. And this is not "news", it's just another confirmation that YET nothing changed {quote} I think I posted screenshot that day as a call for some brainstorming. It was not one of the "patterns" I am waiting/scanning for, but it was worth discussion. Pity none was interested. However what happened is good answer why I am never short on Gold - I don't have "virtually unlimited liquidity". Unlike most of sell offs which are well planned (as example currently to push investors out of real metal),...
Thanks for sharing and clearing that out!

It sounds like you are a momemtum trader whenever there are panic long spikes... but over all you rely on supply demand fundamentals for a long view..!

Personally I think this is a trend changer...as yellen never said this before... Markets are irrational especially when they are panicking. Gold off late has only been functioning on news from ukraine... otherwise the popular sentiment is down in an environment where us economy is improving etc and the thought of interest rates going down soon...so when the news came that ukraine issue is deescalating gold went down...but pretty soon people are going to digest the fundamental story of lower interest rates for a long time... and this could perhaps happen any time maybe even when or if gold hits $1200...

But the fact is lower interest rates for a long time to come are going to get the bulls back in the market...the entire world needs a low us dollar...it will help america with getting to inflation targets, it will help china in exports and thus in terms of growth...and this will get the gold bugs back into play! You see everyone is fixated on the idea of a better u.s economy...but the fact is it is going to be at the cost of the u.s dollar! This only means now the play of gold is coming back...

You say this was already priced in...well i dont think so... simply because in a panic situation the underlying fundamentals are not priced in... prior to today everyone was spooked about interest rates hikes in the next 6 months to 2 years... but after today It seems it could take 5 to 10 years also!

to think after the amazing job numbers yellen would be over the moon about the economy! but she isnt and that is because of the week housing data which is and will be a concern for a few years to come! (the entire financial crisis was based on housing and yet the disease still lies over there...)

*edit* plus look at the usd index... It is close to a major support level and after it breaks it will only go down!
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