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  • #8,041
  • May 5, 2014 8:40am May 5, 2014 8:40am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} I had initiated test shorts @ 1300 - 1305, who knows PA takes a U turn and it goes down, nevertheless these were to test the waters.
just hedged and trading some key hrs to mitigate test risk.
Hello World!
  • #8,042
  • May 5, 2014 8:43am May 5, 2014 8:43am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} I had initiated test shorts @ 1300 - 1305, who knows PA takes a U turn and it goes down, nevertheless these were to test the waters.
I see..you must have done this towards fridays close (as it kinda made sense then...) <but i do also remember you saying that you wouldn't be surprised if price gaps up on monday> (which in a way it did - as price hasn't retraced once since the asia open)

well as long as they are just tests...
  • #8,043
  • May 5, 2014 8:53am May 5, 2014 8:53am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} I see..you must have done this towards fridays close (as it kinda made sense then...) <but i do also remember you saying that you wouldn't be surprised if price gaps up on monday> (which in a way it did - as price hasn't retraced once since the asia open) well as long as they are just tests...
Through out entire weekend, I've been saying this here, upside is pending and that I am expecting this to peak out by 12 pm NY. Nonetheless, the volatility encouraged me to test shorts. These were tests anyways, and I don't mind any direction PA takes from here.
Hello World!
  • #8,044
  • May 5, 2014 9:01am May 5, 2014 9:01am
DEMARK says that they're might be a S&p correction of $11% starting this week... (source bloomberg)

This might be the trigger of panic and could lead to gold heading much higher!
  • #8,045
  • May 5, 2014 9:07am May 5, 2014 9:07am
Quoting waleed.khan
DEMARK says that they're might be a S&p correction of $11% starting this week... (source bloomberg) This might be the trigger of panic and could lead to gold heading much higher!
He predicted the same thing in 2011 and was wrong.

http://thecrux.com/top-market-timer-...bout-to-begin/
  • #8,046
  • May 5, 2014 9:11am May 5, 2014 9:11am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} He predicted the same thing in 2011 and was wrong. http://thecrux.com/top-market-timer-...bout-to-begin/
Quoting waleed.khan
DEMARK says that they're might be a S&p correction of $11% starting this week... (source bloomberg) This might be the trigger of panic and could lead to gold heading much higher!
Warren Buffet says people who invested in Gold are stupids, OK, his angle maybe fine if he came across people who were investing in Gold like dumbs and not following systems like Golden Seasons.

I know who Warren Buffet is, yet, I can teach him a few lessons about how to invest in Gold and yet not take any major loss. Having said that, I always wonder why do people get carried away by those names? Why don't you use your own analysis? Show the courage and patience to practice with pocket money or use demo accounts.
Hello World!
  • #8,047
  • May 5, 2014 9:13am May 5, 2014 9:13am
Though I think the short bias is long to about 1330, I am short gold from 1315 to 1288. With Ukraine still in the backround, gold could range at these levels till the 25 May elections in Ukraine and/or to the NFP in June.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #8,048
  • May 5, 2014 9:14am May 5, 2014 9:14am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} {quote} Warren Buffet says people who invested in Gold are stupids, OK, his angle maybe fine if he came across people who were investing in Gold like dumbs and not following systems like Golden Seasons. I know who Warren Buffet is, yet, I can teach him a few lessons about how to invest in Gold and yet not take any major loss. Having said that, I always wonder why do people get carried away by those names? Why don't you use your own analysis? Show the courage and patience to practice with pocket money or use demo accounts.
Nothing Is Certain In The Universe
  • #8,049
  • May 5, 2014 9:17am May 5, 2014 9:17am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} He predicted the same thing in 2011 and was wrong. http://thecrux.com/top-market-timer-...bout-to-begin/
Probability might be on his side then... (good timers can't be wrong all the time)

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...ntil-september

*i am not saying I believe him 100% - but I can understand the bias and likelihood of that happening*
  • #8,050
  • May 5, 2014 9:23am May 5, 2014 9:23am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} {quote} Warren Buffet says people who invested in Gold are stupids, OK, his angle maybe fine if he came across people who were investing in Gold like dumbs and not following systems like Golden Seasons. I know who Warren Buffet is, yet, I can teach him a few lessons about how to invest in Gold and yet not take any major loss. Having said that, I always wonder why do people get carried away by those names? Why don't you use your own analysis? Show the courage and patience to practice with pocket money or use demo accounts.
Independent analysis is key but there is no harm in listening to others opinions and then forming your own bias also... infact this is embeded in human psychology whether one likes it or not...one gets influenced by others even if they intend to or not!

buffet is a value investor; hence it is logical that gold doesn't appeal to him as much as equities

demark is a technical analyst...and relies solely on technicals (and there is a real good case that the s&p needs a correction
  • #8,051
  • May 5, 2014 9:38am May 5, 2014 9:38am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Independent analysis is key but there is no harm in listening to others opinions and then forming your own bias also... infact this is embeded in human psychology whether one likes it or not...one gets influenced by others even if they intend to or not! buffet is a value investor; hence it is logical that gold doesn't appeal to him as much as equities demark is a technical analyst...and relies solely on technicals (and there is a real good case that the s&p needs a correction
This is very true. Eventually they or us get a call right once in a while.
  • #8,052
  • May 5, 2014 9:39am May 5, 2014 9:39am
Quoting greenblue
{quote} i agree with you 1298 even 1240. but, did your stoploss hit on that chart? i hope not, cause now price look move down a little.
No my stop loss didn't get hit on that one. I am looking for the 1306 area first. A close below that I guess verifies down move. But I am actually pretty new to all this and somehow trying to get along. So please do keep your own analysis above mine before taking risks. Cheers !!!

If it doesn't close below 1306 and somehow gives a bullish combination I guess that should be something to think about.
  • #8,053
  • May 5, 2014 9:42am May 5, 2014 9:42am
You may be right mate, for instance, after I started posting Golden Seasons here, few fellas posted a German Analyst's conclusive theory which was pretty identical to my Golden Seasons. I did 10 yr research on the basis of ancient Indian Festivals and apparently he (German) relied only on science and maths and he had researched last 30 yrs. Either way, we both fell on same page. So you could say, its fine to listen to others. People here kept asking if I was following him, after all he is much senior and world renowned analyst and I am a small fella here, anyways, that was funny for me.

I did further research and fine tuned Golden Seasons using ancient festivals, never posted it anywhere and kept it with myself. Actually, even fine tuned Golden Seasons are only tip of the iceberg.

Now back to Buffet and Gates, they think that investing in Gold is purely psychological. The best use of Gold can only be in ornaments, I assume they are referring to rings, necklaces etc worn by people. They think investing in Gold sounds purely psychological, OK, fair and square, I agree with that. Buffet likes to invest in Coke, GE, food products etc if I'm not wrong. BUT, just because he came across people who do not know how to invest in Gold does not mean that investing in Gold is a stupid idea.

My point is that these bigwigs could be misleading the world with their lack of knowledge about Gold. Hence, I tend to prove that following a big fella could be absolutely wrong.



Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Independent analysis is key but there is no harm in listening to others opinions and then forming your own bias also... infact this is embeded in human psychology whether one likes it or not...one gets influenced by others even if they intend to or not! buffet is a value investor; hence it is logical that gold doesn't appeal to him as much as equities demark is a technical analyst...and relies solely on technicals (and there is a real good case that the s&p needs a correction
Hello World!
  • #8,054
  • May 5, 2014 9:57am May 5, 2014 9:57am
Quoting ClockTrader
Now back to Buffet and Gates, they think that investing in Gold is purely psychological. The best use of Gold can only be in ornaments, I assume they are referring to rings, necklaces etc worn by people. They think investing in Gold sounds purely psychological, OK, fair and square, I agree with that. Buffet likes to invest in Coke, GE, food products etc if I'm not wrong. BUT, just because he came across people who do not know how to invest in Gold does not mean that investing in Gold is a stupid idea. My point is that these bigwigs could be misleading...
Well its not their lack of knowledge of gold...You see Bufet has a broader perspective on things and he focuses more on equties than anything else; and he has 30 plus years of data to support that argument. (heck he is amongst the worlds richest men) so what he says does matter...infact his actions can move markets..think back 2011 when he bought bofa and saved it from bankruptcy! but now with that being said "should you go and take your scope on gold from him"...(for instance I would not go ask roger federer what he thinks about who will win the soccer world cup...) You don't have too! you can go find gold bugs like jim rogers and marc faber who will give you a counter arguement (based on the austrian economic philosophy)

But i think he is right about gold being 'psychogical"! the price of gold is primarily based on sentiments, traditions and is deeply embedded in the psyche of man (almost all religious books in the world refer to it) & there is nothing wrong with it being a psychological gauge either!
  • #8,055
  • May 5, 2014 10:07am May 5, 2014 10:07am
Dude, I don't have to go to anyone as long as I have my systems working for me. If they like, they can come to me. Anyways, lets move on from this. Been scalping the range on H1 and feels good so far :-)

Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Well its not their lack of knowledge of gold...You see Bufet has a broader perspective on things and he focuses more on equties than anything else; and he has 30 plus years of data to support that argument. (heck he is amongst the worlds richest men) so what he says does matter...infact his actions can move markets..think back 2011 when he bought bofa and saved it from bankruptcy! but now with that being said "should you go and take your scope on gold from him"...(for instance I would not go ask roger federer what he thinks about who will...
Hello World!
  • #8,056
  • May 5, 2014 10:09am May 5, 2014 10:09am
Quoting ClockTrader
You may be right mate, for instance, after I started posting Golden Seasons here, few fellas posted a German Analyst's conclusive theory which was pretty identical to my Golden Seasons. I did 10 yr research on the basis of ancient Indian Festivals and apparently he (German) relied only on science and maths and he had researched last 30 yrs. Either way, we both fell on same page. So you could say, its fine to listen to others. People here kept asking if I was following him, after all he is much senior and world renowned analyst and I am a small fella...
well if there was confluence between your research and their research then that just leads to your arguement being validated and more right!
  • #8,057
  • May 5, 2014 10:13am May 5, 2014 10:13am
Quoting ClockTrader
Dude, I don't have to go to anyone as long as I have my systems working for me. If they like, they can come to me. Anyways, lets move on from this. Been scalping the range on H1 and feels good so far :-) {quote}
speaking of scalping the 1 hr charts and shorter time frames... I am curious what system you use.. I am not really a scalper and whenever i try i get it more wrong then right! hence I am very curious what your system is...

the other day; I read about a 5 minute scalping system using the 1hr moving averages for entry point here on forex factory! i found it interesting...has anyone tried it for gold?
  • #8,058
  • May 5, 2014 10:31am May 5, 2014 10:31am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} speaking of scalping the 1 hr charts and shorter time frames... I am curious what system you use.. I am not really a scalper and whenever i try i get it more wrong then right! hence I am very curious what your system is... the other day; I read about a 5 minute scalping system using the 1hr moving averages for entry point here on forex factory! i found it interesting...has anyone tried it for gold?
There is a paid indicator "smart VSA", old free versions are there too for practice, Google it and you'll find something. Do some back-study and I'm sure you'll find something useful.

Whatever system you follow or develop, keep in mind that it takes 3 - 6 months at least to get to a good level.
Hello World!
  • #8,059
  • May 5, 2014 10:32am May 5, 2014 10:32am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} Well its not their lack of knowledge of gold...You see Bufet has a broader perspective on things and he focuses more on equties than anything else; and he has 30 plus years of data to support that argument. (heck he is amongst the worlds richest men) so what he says does matter...infact his actions can move markets..think back 2011 when he bought bofa and saved it from bankruptcy! but now with that being said "should you go and take your scope on gold from him"...(for instance I would not go ask roger federer what he thinks about who will...

One question ones needs to ask himself is this, ' Is Warren or Gates a day-trader?Of course not! These guys have motherloads of money to invest for the long term so if I were you I would not listen to the likes of them I would be asking is there any trader out there who trades Gold profitably? If there is, and I am sure there are a lot, then those are the ones to listen to not some investor tycoon who has never daytraded his whole life.
Less is more...
  • #8,060
  • May 5, 2014 10:37am May 5, 2014 10:37am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} There is a paid indicator "smart VSA", old free versions are there too for practice, Google it and you'll find something. Do some back-study and I'm sure you'll find something useful. Whatever system you follow or develop, keep in mind that it takes 3 - 6 months at least to get to a good level.
I have a very good swing trading system that has been giving me decent returns...but it is conservative and only works in trending markets! I've personally back-tested it with 5 yrs of gold data & it returns a meager sum 55% a year.

But i am looking for something more like scalping and in ranging markets!
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