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  • #7,701
  • Apr 28, 2014 11:11am Apr 28, 2014 11:11am
Quoting ClockTrader
I remained on sidelines today, awaiting a bottom out, would like to go long then. Have a good one you all!
+1. Crowd was selling whole morning. Waiting till asian session opening to decide if I should add longs
  • #7,702
  • Apr 28, 2014 11:32am Apr 28, 2014 11:32am
i think its hold below 1300 till london open tommorow, isnt it?
  • #7,703
  • Apr 28, 2014 11:53am Apr 28, 2014 11:53am
Quoting ppipsHolic
i think its hold below 1300 till london open tommorow, isnt it?
as long as gold does not break and close under previous days low of 1288; the uptrend is still in tact!

Plus the spx500 is also falling and appears bearish on the 4hr and daily charts...which should add to bullish sentiment of gold! I think the thing to watch is the spx500 this week and if it closes below the 50 sma on the daily chart that can lead to a correction which can be buillish for gold!
  • #7,704
  • Apr 28, 2014 11:58am Apr 28, 2014 11:58am
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} as long as gold does not break and close under previous days low of 1288; the uptrend is still in tact! Plus the spx500 is also falling and appears bearish on the 4hr and daily charts...which should add to bullish sentiment of gold! I think the thing to watch is the spx500 this week and if it closes below the 50 sma on the daily chart that can lead to a correction which can be buillish for gold!
You might be right, but for the short term. Gold is at these levels due to concern about Ukraine, as well as the economic impact of sanctions on Russia and Europe.

I've closed shorts for profit and waiting for PA to take us above 1300 again to reload heavy on shorts again. With FED and NFP this week, and a host of other news, we are likely to see a lot of volatility, but a break of 1270 will signal resumption of bearish trend to 1200.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #7,705
  • Apr 28, 2014 12:07pm Apr 28, 2014 12:07pm
Quoting anton.olff
{quote} You might be right, but for the short term. Gold is at these levels due to concern about Ukraine, as well as the economic impact of sanctions on Russia and Europe. I've closed shorts for profit and waiting for PA to take us above 1300 again to reload heavy on shorts again. With FED and NFP this week, and a host of other news, we are likely to see a lot of volatility, but a break of 1270 will signal resumption of bearish trend to 1200.
Agree break of 1270 will definitely send prices lower...

I am very concerned about the spx though; a close below 50 sma might cause panic risk off selling. Indeed NFP is crucial but it seems like something besides the ukraine issue is being priced into the market right now...which makes me very skeptical.

*this is just in from bloomberg* "last week money managers increased net long positions..." Maybe its the Ukraine issue; (buy the rumor; sell the fact) type of trade... but could there be something else on the horizon...?
  • #7,706
  • Apr 28, 2014 12:32pm Apr 28, 2014 12:32pm
Ok, I think it's clear to everyone now that this is second time in last few trading sessions, when they allow prices to drop on good USD news, so crowd is selling heavy and provides liquidity for their fat orders.
  • #7,707
  • Apr 28, 2014 1:02pm Apr 28, 2014 1:02pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} yes looks like the 4 hour is bullish 1294 is the last support, i think, this could be a chance to go long back to 1315 area ,, this is the scenarios i am going to look for
as above plan all actioned as i was out , long now and pp at 1296.3 a break above look 1307,, 1315 i have a tp and sell order at 1296.00 target 1287/30 ..
  • #7,708
  • Apr 28, 2014 3:02pm Apr 28, 2014 3:02pm
possible long term gold forecast............fundamental analysis

Gold Backwardation Like This Has Never Happened in History-James Turk
Gold expert James Turk says the Ukraine crisis can affect the price of gold. Turk says, “Whenever there is global tension, people go to safety, and one of the greatest safe havens of all-time has been gold. It’s been money for 5,000 years, and it’s still money and still a safe haven because it’s money that doesn’t have counter-party risk. . . . Gold does respond to geopolitical tensions, and I must admit the situation in Ukraine is getting more serious. I would not be surprised if the tensions continued to rise.” So, could this be a trigger to cause distress in the global financial community? Turk contends, “Yes, it really could. This could blow out of proportion very quickly, and it would be much more serious than what happened in the Balkans where there was a shooting war. What’s happening here is you are talking about a major economic power and the use of sanctions. In WWII, one of the causes of friction between the United States and Japan was the economic sanctions the U. S. imposed on Japan because of their incursions in China. It is eerily similar to what is happening now with Russia, and I think the stakes are just as high when you are talking about two major powers confronting themselves this way.”
As far as ratcheting up sanctions, Turk worries, “To do it in an environment where economic conditions in both the United States and Europe are very weak is even more worrying. You just do not have the economic base as you would during a period of strong economic activity. You have to remember these sanctions can bite home. People living in glass houses should not throw stones, as the old saying goes. The issue here is there is so much debt and counter-party risk between various players in the global economy that it has a knock-on effect, and we just don’t know how that knock-on effect is going to play out. If you look back to 2008, during the financial collapse then, we saw Bear Stearns get into trouble and then some European banks get into trouble and, ultimately, Lehman . . . fell apart and collapsed, and that had a knock-on effect as well. We just don’t know how it’s going to play out, but it is very worrying to see these threats of economic sanctions and imposition of economic sanctions and this war of words. It is potentially very serious.”
Turk goes on to say, “Back in 1999, gold was $250 per ounce, and the gold price has risen just over five times. Likewise, crude oil was $20 a barrel back then, and it also has risen five times since then. So, an ounce of gold still buys the same amount of crude oil as it did in 1999. So, if you get geopolitical tension and Russia threatens to do something on the energy issue, crude oil will go up and gold will go up as well. . . . The central banks can’t keep the gold price down if the oil price goes up.”
On central banks running out of gold this year, Turk says, “There are two things I am looking at. There are reports of lots of old gold bars coming out of the vaults and going into the refiners being turned into kilo bars for shipments to Asia. The fact that these are old bars that were refined thirty, forty, fifty years ago suggest they are at the back of the vault and not at the front of the vault where the newly refined bars would be. More importantly is the backwardation we are seeing in gold. . . . In other words, the spot price is higher than the future price of gold. . . . The weird thing that has happened and it’s never happened in history, when the gold price was driven down last year to its lows in June 2013, gold went into backwardation, and since then, it has been in backwardation more than 50% of the time. The only other times backwardation occurred were in 1999, with the lows in gold, and 2008, with the lows in gold. After both of those backwardations, the gold price soared. Backwardation is occurring because central banks are emptying out their vaults to try to keep the gold price from rising and to keep inflation looking low and to keep the economic conditions looking good. There is only so much gold that exists in central banks’ vaults. The fact this backwardation has been going on so long suggests to me that we’re pretty close to the point in time where the central banks are going to say ‘no more.’ We are not going to empty our vaults in the West to ship gold to the East. . . . My guess is it’s going to happen this year.”
Turk, who recently co-wrote a book called “The Money Bubble,” goes on to say, “Sooner or later, we are going to go over the cliff as we did in 2008. They saved the system, the system in 2008, but I don’t think this time around they are going to be able to save the system. So, you have to prepare for it. . .
Nothing Is Certain In The Universe
  • #7,709
  • Apr 28, 2014 3:07pm Apr 28, 2014 3:07pm
Quoting XediAnakin
fundamental analysis Gold Backwardation Like This Has Never Happened in History-James Turk
Thanks
  • #7,710
  • Apr 28, 2014 3:35pm Apr 28, 2014 3:35pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} as above plan all actioned as i was out , long now and pp at 1296.3 a break above look 1307,, 1315 i have a tp and sell order at 1296.00 target 1287/30 ..
target 1276.40 now
  • #7,711
  • Apr 28, 2014 8:47pm Apr 28, 2014 8:47pm
Quoting Super_Mario
{quote} +1. Crowd was selling whole morning. Waiting till asian session opening to decide if I should add longs
I would suggest wait for longs.
Hello World!
  • #7,712
  • Apr 28, 2014 9:43pm Apr 28, 2014 9:43pm
wait for london open and may add some long
  • #7,713
  • Apr 28, 2014 10:52pm Apr 28, 2014 10:52pm
Quoting ppipsHolic
wait for london open and may add some long
Yeap. Due to Tokyo holiday, the market is very thin. More volitality is coming till end of the week. Enjoy!!!
  • #7,714
  • Apr 28, 2014 11:06pm Apr 28, 2014 11:06pm
Quoting elbert3
{quote} target 1276.40 now
May the force be with u
row row row your boat
  • #7,715
  • Apr 28, 2014 11:33pm Apr 28, 2014 11:33pm
Quoting waleed.khan
{quote} For this rally... I don't know; I don't like to make predictions on exact price but rather rely on support/resistance levels. Right now key levels are 1307 ,1317, 1330-50, 1400 with the possibility of going further up to maybe 1420... I am judging this purely on a daily/weekly technical basis... So gold price will probably retrace lower 50% etc in this probable run too but technically I think we are in for a rally (plus so many people are still bearish...(usually the opposite happens to the popular demand). Today I think gold will consolidate...
thank u for ur comprehensive analysis. actually i have very low equity so right now i m testing my strategies in intraday trading. i m targeting more on small profits on daily basis. at the same time waiting for some rally so that i can enter n get some good equity to trade long terms. right now situation is very confusing, isn't it? its wondering around an area n not clear where to move longer period of time.
P.S. Trade with the discipline of Money Management and Risk Management.
  • #7,716
  • Apr 29, 2014 12:00am Apr 29, 2014 12:00am
Quoting farukh
{quote} thank u for ur comprehensive analysis. actually i have very low equity so right now i m testing my strategies in intraday trading. i m targeting more on small profits on daily basis. at the same time waiting for some rally so that i can enter n get some good equity to trade long terms. right now situation is very confusing, isn't it? its wondering around an area n not clear where to move longer period of time.
Price need to test current low before fully confident to go up. If price up from current level i will add short at better price, COT number this week show net short.
  • #7,717
  • Apr 29, 2014 12:06am Apr 29, 2014 12:06am
things are getting better in the uSA and here in the UK. If there is no threat of war people will switch to stocks to get div income. Gold will come well below 1000.
  • #7,718
  • Apr 29, 2014 1:09am Apr 29, 2014 1:09am
What is the sentiment for gold today as it is trading at 1295.24. can we build long over here.
  • #7,719
  • Apr 29, 2014 1:13am Apr 29, 2014 1:13am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} target 1276.40 now
short again 1295.2 sl on manage we need to break the 200 on the 30 min chart sitting at 1290.00
  • #7,720
  • Apr 29, 2014 2:46am Apr 29, 2014 2:46am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} short again 1295.2 sl on manage we need to break the 200 on the 30 min chart sitting at 1290.00
ok pp on 2 shorts now 1290.00 and bring down as and when,, target now 1287.5 could retrace a little here then short again ,, target 1282.5 tp this target and i am putting a buy order same place
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