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Ollio's Gold - Supply and Demand

  • #141
  • Edited 12:30pm Apr 24, 2014 12:19pm | Edited 12:30pm
Quoting tripr
yes, I had the same question as price never hit any of your #'s. I've seen this a lot which has left me somewhat confused as how to interpret things as they are happening.
Hi tripr,

You are right the market did not respect any of the Retracement Levels on the lower timeframes.

That's simply because the market had broken a key Demand Level on a Higher timeframe (i.e the Week).

In which case, the Retracement Level to watch was the one indicated on the Week (i.e. the higher timeframe), not the retracement levels on the lower timeframes.

Cheers.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #142
  • Apr 24, 2014 12:27pm Apr 24, 2014 12:27pm
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Hi mausaroli, You have an excellent question! But first, let me say that I am glad to hear you appreciate my thread. Now to answer your question. You may recall that in one of my previous posts I mentioned that the application only calculates Retracement Levels when one of the two following situations occur: 1) Supply overcomes Demand, we have a Retracement Level, 2) Demand overcomes Supply, we also have a Retracement Level. Now what happened this morning is precisely why the application calculates these Retracement Levels. The reason is...
Thanks Jacke for the explanation.
This is the type of information, i guess, that will be covered more in depth during your webinar?
  • #143
  • Apr 24, 2014 12:36pm Apr 24, 2014 12:36pm
Quoting mausaroli
{quote} Thanks Jacke for the explanation. This is the type of information, i guess, that will be covered more in depth during your webinar?
Correct.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #144
  • Edited 12:22pm Apr 25, 2014 5:37am | Edited 12:22pm
Friday April 25, 2014

Chart #1

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bullish above 1292.65, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1292.65.
On the 8 Hour, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1315.22.
On the Day, the market is Bullish above 1284.52 with Supply @1298.37.

The Week is unchanged from yesterday. On the Week, (1) the market is Bearish below 1296.35, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1296.35. The market becomes Neutral above 1296.35 and Bullish above 1300.44.

Chart #2

On the 4 Hour, the Retracement Level now reads 1298.45.
On the 8 Hour, the Lower Boundary of the Passive Consolidation Zone reads 1297.52 and the Unfilled Gap Indicator (i.e. Yellow Bar) indicates 61%.
On the Day, (1) the market is Bullish above 1288.13, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1288.13.
On the Week, the market is Neutral and the Upper Boundary now reads 1300.90. The market becomes Bullish above 1300.90 and Bearish below 1296.35.

Chart #3

On the 4 Hour, the market holds a Bearish Bias below 1303.16. The market becomes Bearish below 1300.96 and Bullish above 1303.16.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above 1301.11 with Supply @1302.88.
The Day remains unchanged.
On the Week, (1) the market is Bullish above 1300.90, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1300.90. Below 1300.90 the market returns to Neutral while below 1296.35 the market returns to Bearish.

Chart #4

On the 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1301.81, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1301.81.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bearish below 1299.76, (2) Supply has overcome Demand such that we have a High, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1299.76.
On the Day, the Retracement Level now reads 1288.96.
On the Week, the market is Neutral between 1301.73 and 1296.35. The Upper Boundary of the Passive Consolidation Zone now reads 1301.73.

Chart #5

On 4 Hour, (1) the market is Bullish above 1302.40, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1302.40.
On the 8 Hour, (1) the market is Bullish above 1301.00, (2) Demand has overcome Supply such that we have a Low, (3) we have a Retracement Level @1301.00.
The Day remains unchanged.
On the Week, the Retracement Level now reads 1301.73.

Chart #6

On the 4 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1304.45 and 1301.81. The market becomes Bullish above 1304.45 and Bearish below 1301.81.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Bullish above the new Retracement Level @1303.05.
On the Day, the market is Bullish above the new Retracement Level @1291.01.
On the Week, the market is Bullish above the new Retracement Level @1303.78.

Chart #7 (Last)

On the 4 Hour, the market is Bearish below 1301.57.
On the 8 Hour, the market is Neutral between 1303.05 and 1299.76. The market becomes Bullish above 1303.05 and Bearish below 1299.76.
The Day remains unchanged.
On the Week, the market is Neutral between 1303.78 and 1296.35. The market becomes Bullish above 1303.79 and Bearish below 1296.35.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 25-04-2014 (47-1).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 25-04-2014 (47-2).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 25-04-2014 (47-4).PNG Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 25-04-2014 (47-6).PNG Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 25-04-2014 (47-7).PNG Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 25-04-2014 (47-8).PNG Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIA - Gold 25-04-2014 (47-9).PNG Size: 26 KB
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #145
  • Apr 25, 2014 7:31am Apr 25, 2014 7:31am
Sorry Jack but without a strategy to enter and exit with these calculations , we are driving a good and powerful car in the night without lights
  • #146
  • Apr 25, 2014 7:38am Apr 25, 2014 7:38am
Quoting shaban010
Sorry Jack but without a strategy to enter and exit with these calculations , we are driving a good and powerful car in the night without lights
Excellent point ! You are absolutely right !

The purpose of these postings is to demonstrate that the application (i.e. tool) is capable of calculating all the key levels you need to trade. Basically what it means to traders is that they do not need to perform technical analysis.

The application works on any instrument and on all available timeframes.

The Entry and Exit strategies are covered in the webinars.

So in essence, I purposely use this thread only to demonstrate what the application does as opposed to how it can be used to trade.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #147
  • Apr 25, 2014 7:46am Apr 25, 2014 7:46am
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Excellent point ! You are absolutely right ! The purpose of these postings is to demonstrate that the application (i.e. tool) is capable of calculating all the key levels you need to trade. Basically what it means to traders is that they do not need to perform technical analysis. The application works on any instrument and on all available timeframes. The Entry and Exit strategies are covered in the webinars. So in essence, I use this thread only to demonstrate what the application does as opposed to how you can use it to trade.

WHEN ??????
  • #148
  • Apr 25, 2014 7:50am Apr 25, 2014 7:50am
Quoting shaban010
{quote} WHEN ??????
So far, I have scheduled 4 webinars between May 1st and May 15th.

But it looks like I may have to schedule a few more.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #149
  • Apr 25, 2014 8:01am Apr 25, 2014 8:01am
If you have any questions about how to use the information to trade, feel free to ask.

That being said, this morning you need to be careful going Long because there is a Supply Level @1302.88 on the 8 Hour. Also notice that the 4 Hour chart holds a Bearish Bias which has now become Bearish below 1302.40.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #150
  • Apr 25, 2014 9:08am Apr 25, 2014 9:08am
Surely ( how to use the information to trade ?) is the main question here but i dont know if i will have an answer now ?

Or i should wait the webinars.
  • #151
  • Apr 25, 2014 9:10am Apr 25, 2014 9:10am
Quoting shaban010
Surely ( how to use the information to trade ?) is the main question here but i dont know if i will have an answer now ? Or i should wait the webinars.
You sure will get an answer if you have any question to ask.

In fact, it would be very good if you did ask questions about how to use the information.

It would allow me to start the discussion and I think it would help the other traders who may have the same questions but don't know if they should be asking.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #152
  • Apr 25, 2014 9:20am Apr 25, 2014 9:20am
so I guess now we should be long ?
  • #153
  • Apr 25, 2014 9:22am Apr 25, 2014 9:22am
What now see, is the market has taken out all Supply levels on all 4 timeframes.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #154
  • Edited 9:36am Apr 25, 2014 9:24am | Edited 9:36am
Quoting tripr
so I guess now we should be long ?
Correct.

In fact you would have been Long (or Pending Long) above 1302.40 on the 4 Hour (see Chart #3 above) which is the highest level on the 4 timeframes that the market needed to clear.

Also what you could do, is put your Stop Loss at any one of the Retracement Levels identified on the timeframes at the time of Entry which in this case were the following (as per Chart #4 above);

1) 1302.40 on the 4 Hour or 1301.81 (i.e. Lower Boundary), or

2) 1301.00 on the 8 Hour, or

3) 1288.96 on the Day, or

4) 1301.73 on the Week.

Having done that, you can choose to move your Stop Loss (i.e. trail your Stop Loss) as these levels change and as you will see on my next chart.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #155
  • Apr 25, 2014 9:39am Apr 25, 2014 9:39am
is there a target or new supply area on a higher time frame we should be looking for, or just stay long until further notice ? thanks jack !
  • #156
  • Edited 4:49pm Apr 25, 2014 9:41am | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting tripr
is there a target or new supply area on a higher time frame we should be looking for, or just stay long until further notice ? thanks jack !
Notice that we do not have any Supply Levels on any of the timeframes available but we now have new Retracement Levels.

Also notice, the following:

1) the 4 Hour is Neutral between 1304.45 and 1301.81,

2) the Retracement Levels on the 8 Hour and the Week closely match @ around 1303.00.

So, technically at this point you have a number of options to plan your Exit:

1) since we do not have any Supply Levels on any of the 4 timeframes, depending if you are a short term or long term trader, we need to :
i) look at lower timeframes to see the Supply Levels, or
ii) look at higher timeframes to see the Supply Levels

2) if you were in a short term trade (say only for today) then your options are as follows (see Chart #6 above):
i) exit the market on the Upper Boundary of the timeframe which indicates Neutral, in this particular instance on the 4 Hour @1304.45,
ii) move your Stop Loss to the highest Retracement Level indicated on the available timeframes, @1303.78 on the Week.

The exit strategies when you have no Supply Levels are either the Upper Boundary or the Lower Boundary of the Neutral timeframe (usually the first one to indicate Neutral offers the best exit - most profitable) or any one of the Retracement Levels.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #157
  • Apr 25, 2014 10:14am Apr 25, 2014 10:14am
didn't know if the monthly would figure in but I guess that supply level is too far out. thanks for your response jack.
  • #158
  • Edited 10:29am Apr 25, 2014 10:19am | Edited 10:29am
Quoting tripr
didn't know if the monthly would figure in but I guess that supply level is too far out. thanks for your response jack.
I have posted the Monthly timeframe yesterday (see Chart #3 - Thursday April 24, 2014).

Notice that the Month does not indicate Supply or Demand levels.

That is because the market has not moved enough during the course of the month for the application to calculate the corresponding values.

The Supply and Demand Levels are in fact implicit and correspond respectively to the High and the Low of the current candlestick.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #159
  • Apr 25, 2014 4:09pm Apr 25, 2014 4:09pm
Quoting jackeollio
{quote} Notice that we do not have any Supply Levels on any of the timeframes available but we now have new Retracement Levels. Also notice, the following: 1) the 4 Hour is Neutral between 1304.45 and 1301.81, 2) the Retracement Levels on the 8 Hour and the Week closely match @ around 1303.00. So, technically at this point you have a number of options to plan your Exit: 1) since we do not have any Supply Levels on any of the 4 timeframes, depending if you are a short term or long term trader, we need to : i) look at lower timeframes to see the Supply...


Hi Jacke,
I was a bit skeptical at first but the market proved you right...
In your reply at 2)i above, which chart were you referring to for the Exit?
Also what was the retracement level you had in mind at 2)ii ?
Thanks
  • #160
  • Edited 7:09pm Apr 25, 2014 4:47pm | Edited 7:09pm
Quoting mausaroli
{quote} Hi Jacke, I was a bit skeptical at first but the market proved you right... In your reply at 2)i above, which chart were you referring to for the Exit? Also what was the retracement level you had in mind at 2)ii ? Thanks
In my reply, I was referring to Chart #6 for both my answers in 2) i) and 2) ii) above.

What I was saying is that had you entered a Long today, your proper Exit would have been @1304.45 which is the Upper Boundary of the 4 Hour timeframe.

You could have also used the Retracement Level @1303.78 on the Week as an alternative Exit for your Long trade.

Thanks for bringing it to my attention, I will update my previous post accordingly.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
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