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  • #4,721
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:21am Mar 26, 2014 2:21am
Thanks for the info Zag,cheers
  • #4,722
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:39am Mar 26, 2014 2:39am
Quoting zaghloul
{quote} I started live last September. I consider myself a fundamental trader because of my education as an economist. Fundamentally gold should be going down down down. It should be 1100 or lower. Some fundamentalists even put it down as low as 800. QE reduction should lower gold prices fundamentally as it implies economic recovery. Similarly low inflation (not deflation) should also reduce demand for gold, because thats one of gold's primary uses, as a hedge against inflation. As for playing the news with gold, well it wasn't a good idea. In theory,...
great answer, but this is when "fundamental" views diverge, the only fundamental value in human history is the price of gold.
according to united states economists gold is expensive, according to China and Russia authorities, the price of gold has been tried to be "suppresed" by some central banks to keep the value of the dollar.

weve been in one of the most aggressive QE periods ever, this is why stocks always rise and rise, same with gold, u say $800 many also agree the price of gold should be around $2000 now.
  • #4,723
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:50am Mar 26, 2014 2:50am
i think Gold will be touch 1359 and go down 1280 and next target is 1637
One Day U Will Miss me!
  • #4,724
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:54am Mar 26, 2014 2:54am
Quoting zaghloul
I have absolutely nothing against technical analysis. I just don't understand it. Were always told how massive the forex market it, and how it can not be manipulated by big players like equities. So I can't understand why technical analysis would work. Why would Banks, Institutions, and Individuals care about a fibonacci number, or a resistance, or an sma? Since most are not speculative, and actually have a physical need for the currency transfer, it makes no sense? For those that are speculative, the most overriding concern is interest rate deferentials,...
I agree. The biggest players in forex are not speculators, they are central banks and businesses, I'm sure none of them refer to their charts when they buy/sell a currency pair.

Gold is an entirely different animal, more than half of the directional positions are speculative, even the producers themselves sometimes speculate on gold prices. Chart patterns, breakouts and S/R work pretty well on gold, you just need to know how to look at them.
"Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading.
  • #4,725
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:55am Mar 26, 2014 2:55am
FUTURE order flow is what you want to predict.

Fundamentals is one way. But if too many people know the fundamentals will act in anticipation and actual feedback on fundamentals will appear illogical. See many number releases, extremely bullish yet market moves down, etc.

TA is another

Sentiment is another

combination of all is the best

and this can be done:
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  • #4,726
  • Mar 26, 2014 3:11am Mar 26, 2014 3:11am
The way I see it: Gold will have to take out yesterdays high (set during London) to continue down, between 1317-1320. But if there is a lot of momentum, gold can go higher and the uptrend may continue. So today might be a slow day for gold (under 150pips range), and Thursday will be a volatile day.
  • #4,727
  • Mar 26, 2014 3:41am Mar 26, 2014 3:41am
Quoting zaghloul
I have absolutely nothing against technical analysis. I just don't understand it. Were always told how massive the forex market it, and how it can not be manipulated by big players like equities. So I can't understand why technical analysis would work. Why would Banks, Institutions, and Individuals care about a fibonacci number, or a resistance, or an sma? Since most are not speculative, and actually have a physical need for the currency transfer, it makes no sense? For those that are speculative, the most overriding concern is interest rate deferentials,...
all those indicators, candles, chart formations work because many follows them. in short they are self fullfiling prophecy.
fibonnacci works not because it has some magical numbers to it, its because many people trade the retracement, etc.

so my goal is to find these technical points to open trades.
  • #4,728
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:01am Mar 26, 2014 4:01am
Hey all

See this pic
It reminds you of something?


Let's see if you learned what to do here
Long or short?
Where to put stop?
Where to put the take profit?

Bonus Question
Why I dont inside this trade?
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  • #4,729
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:10am Mar 26, 2014 4:10am
Quoting Nitsan_Levi
Hey all See this pic It reminds you of something? Let's see if you learned what to do here Long or short? Where to put stop? Where to put the take profit? Bonus Question Why I dont inside this trade? {image}
Long from SMA200 to SMA300
tp1: SMA300
tp2: SMA400
sl: 0.88500

If you do not know who you are, the Forex is the worst place to find you
  • #4,730
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:11am Mar 26, 2014 4:11am
Quoting Nitsan_Levi
Hey all See this pic It reminds you of something? Let's see if you learned what to do here Long or short? Where to put stop? Where to put the take profit? Bonus Question Why I dont inside this trade?
Hi Nitsan,

Yes it looks primed for long as per your system.

stop at 0.9, take1 90% at sma300 0.95, take2 10% at sma400 0.97

So why are you not in the trade?
  • #4,731
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:12am Mar 26, 2014 4:12am
Quoting Nitsan_Levi
Hey all See this pic It reminds you of something? Let's see if you learned what to do here Long or short? Where to put stop? Where to put the take profit? Bonus Question Why I dont inside this trade? {image}
Trendline 3rd touch...if the two SMA above is close to the price, will be good to short because its probably a false break. In this case the two lines are far away. Thus it is not good to be in the trade.Personally i will take long and TP at the next sma. SL tight below the current sma. Is that right?
  • #4,732
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:12am Mar 26, 2014 4:12am
stop at 300 sma tp at.9034 approx completion of ab=cd pattern, cheers NL
  • #4,733
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:21am Mar 26, 2014 4:21am
Quoting skassacomput
{quote} Long from SMA200 to SMA300 tp1: SMA300 tp2: SMA400 sl: 0.88500
Sorry, I dont understand.
Could you teach me why?
What is AB = CD that almost everyone talking about?

@Nisan.
Is XAU/USD Still going to 1300?
  • #4,734
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:23am Mar 26, 2014 4:23am
Quoting wangsit
{quote} Sorry, I dont understand. Could you teach me why? What is AB = CD that almost everyone talking about? @Nisan. Is XAU/USD Still going to 1300?
Take a weekend and browse through all Nitsan's posts. You will learn a lot. Worth 7 years of knowledge and experience, tested and proven Cheers
  • #4,735
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:28am Mar 26, 2014 4:28am
Quoting Polaris4dy
{quote} Take a weekend and browse through all Nitsan's posts. You will learn a lot. Worth 7 years of knowledge and experience, tested and proven Cheers
Ok, I think Monday is the best day to learn...
I am not working at that time.

Which post should I read?
Nitsan and Clock trader?
And Where I should read it? From page 1????
  • #4,736
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:28am Mar 26, 2014 4:28am
Quoting Nitsan_Levi
Hey all See this pic It reminds you of something? Let's see if you learned what to do here Long or short? Where to put stop? Where to put the take profit? Bonus Question Why I dont inside this trade? {image}
not in the trade because its a daily chart and wait for the close !
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #4,737
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:30am Mar 26, 2014 4:30am
Not in trade as no sma at pattern completion or other tools to support direction of trade
  • #4,738
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:41am Mar 26, 2014 4:41am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} You sound like a very interesting person, can you tell us about yourself fella? Like your experience or any such thing that describes your skillsets?
Hi ClockTrader,

Well, my background is in Pure and Applied Mathematics, Computer Science and Finance and I've been a trader for just about 7 years.

I have designed an application which enables me to trade gaps in Supply and Demand, referred to as the Spread.

My application accurately calculates Supply and Demand zones on as many timeframes as I wish.

For Gold, I use it to calculate Supply and Demand on 18 timeframes, once every minute.

That's about it.

Cheers to all.
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #4,739
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:42am Mar 26, 2014 4:42am
Quoting skassacomput
{quote} Long from SMA200 to SMA300 tp1: SMA300 tp2: SMA400 sl: 0.88500
Nice , very nice.

Quoting Northintel
{quote} Hi Nitsan, Yes it looks primed for long as per your system. stop at 0.9, take1 90% at sma300 0.95, take2 10% at sma400 0.97 So why are you not in the trade?
Also nice!

Quoting Polaris4dy
{quote} Trendline 3rd touch...if the two SMA above is close to the price, will be good to short because its probably a false break. In this case the two lines are far away. Thus it is not good to be in the trade.Personally i will take long and TP at the next sma. SL tight below the current sma. Is that right?
Nice 1 of the reason I am not in is the trend line


Quoting eklein
stop at 300 sma tp at.9034 approx completion of ab=cd pattern, cheers NL
I will not take short here But very nice you see the AB=CD! its 1 of the reason I am not in.



Ok


So first of all its look like price in the way to sma300...so I see this and think long.
But
First of all price close above sma200...and not fall to touch him and let a easy entery.
More reason is that I see AB=CD + Fibo 127.2+fibo161.8 +trendline in the 3touch.
Now I just wait for good entery point....Like back to sma 200 and start to turn up
Like Gartley patterm in small time frame
Or close above the trend line and back to touch him and start turn up
By the way the bigest stop is the distance between sma 200 to sma 300....but the stop you say is fine.
About small time frame...every trade I take I will leave 10-20% of profit to daily sma 300


GL HF all
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  • #4,740
  • Mar 26, 2014 4:58am Mar 26, 2014 4:58am
Quoting Nitsan_Levi
Hey all See this pic It reminds you of something? Let's see if you learned what to do here Long or short? Where to put stop? Where to put the take profit? Bonus Question Why I dont inside this trade? {image}
According to my analysis of this pair on the daily chart (my preferred t/f incidentally). I anticipate a high likelihood of a retracement back to the .9150 kind of level, before resuming the current up trend. Regarding specific figures for me therefore depends when I see a new buy signal after the expected price retracement, as I am only ususually interested in trading with the trend. All that being the case, I'd expect to be back in a buy trade in 2-3 days time or so, depending how price was reacting after the retracement I mentioned.
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