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Only Gold!

  • #4,701
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:02pm Mar 25, 2014 11:02pm
Quoting farukh
so many forcasts and analysis were saying if it breaks 1319.. gold will enter downtrend and continue falling to 1280 may be. but i am observing now in this thread that it is getting ready to bounce back from here to 1420. Here almost all are experienced traders so i got a little confused. Is gold still in uptrend? i m on sidelines waiting for buy rally because of having very low equity. Nitsan or can anybody guide me plz? well i really like ClockTrader's Daily Clock Band. it works..
Uhh, I see the site/blog for Daily Clock Band.Is it an indicator? Or do they update a site on it? or what?
Thanks
  • #4,702
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:14pm Mar 25, 2014 11:14pm
Morning fellas. Watch out, head and shoulders on site My vision for short term ===> Buy @ 1312.75, TP @ 1319-22, SL @ 1310.
After short @ 1319-22, SL @ 1326 and then down to 1300 !
Good Luck!
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  • #4,703
  • Mar 25, 2014 11:34pm Mar 25, 2014 11:34pm
Quoting providence10
{quote} Uhh, I see the site/blog for Daily Clock Band.Is it an indicator? Or do they update a site on it? or what? Thanks
Its external side of one of my trading systems. Usually applies to day trading. It can be used like an indicator if you are supplied with the coordinates.
Hello World!
  • #4,704
  • Mar 26, 2014 12:58am Mar 26, 2014 12:58am
I hate trading gold. HATE IT!
  • #4,705
  • Mar 26, 2014 1:11am Mar 26, 2014 1:11am
Quoting zaghloul
I hate trading gold. HATE IT!
what seems to be the problem?
  • #4,706
  • Mar 26, 2014 1:19am Mar 26, 2014 1:19am
Quoting zaghloul
I hate trading gold. HATE IT!
Could you tell me your problem?

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear Nitsan,

your decision to Sell XAU/USD, because there is stronger trend to USD in XAU/USD in D1 (Daily) Candle and H4 Candle.
And, there is support point in 1.300 (based on my indicator "Pivot Lines Timezones"
Is that why you decude to Sell XAU/USD and taking provit at 1.300?
  • #4,707
  • Mar 26, 2014 1:29am Mar 26, 2014 1:29am
Quoting golddigger
{quote} what seems to be the problem?
I'm a fundamental trader and never liked technical analysis (or understood it). I do okay with currency pairs, and I do fantastic with news trading. I got into gold during the Crimea situation and it has been nothing but loss after loss. By end of NY session all the good traders here were saying to short and that it will hit 1300, except the exact opposite thing happened (AGAIN!).

I think I'm going to stick to what I do best, economic news trading. Unfortunately that's what got me into gold in the first place.
  • #4,708
  • Mar 26, 2014 1:35am Mar 26, 2014 1:35am
what EA do you use for news trading ?
  • #4,709
  • Mar 26, 2014 1:38am Mar 26, 2014 1:38am
Quoting zaghloul
{quote} I'm a fundamental trader and never liked technical analysis (or understood it). I do okay with currency pairs, and I do fantastic with news trading. I got into gold during the Crimea situation and it has been nothing but loss after loss. By end of NY session all the good traders here were saying to short and that it will hit 1300, except the exact opposite thing happened (AGAIN!). I think I'm going to stick to what I do best, economic news trading. Unfortunately that's what got me into gold in the first place.
Yeah i know it sucks, i am really not a news guy i trade on my TA mostly but pay attention to FA and News as well. Maybe you just need to ignore all the "noise" here? and follow your own strategy?
  • #4,710
  • Mar 26, 2014 1:50am Mar 26, 2014 1:50am
Quoting eklein
what EA do you use for news trading ?
No EAs. I use Java clicking program that physically clicks buy or sell on my platform. The free program is called Forex News Gun. And before anyone tries to use it and loses a ton of money let me explain briefly how you can be successful with it:

- You have to spend a lot of time looking at the historical releases for each economic event. You have to study what deviation from the forecast moves which pairs by how much. (forexrazor has a calendar with an analyze button on the side, it will show you the historical charts for every release on every currency pair).

- You have to be aware if economic releases are simultaneous. This can complicate matters sometimes. It can also help. If US and Canada both releasing at same time, don't use USDCAD. If US releasing more than one report look at their importance, and widen your deviation trigger. etc....

- You need to use a currency strength meter to enhance your winnings. Always play a strong currency to a weak currency to gain maximum pips.

- You need to forget everything you learned about risk, and get ready to use huge pip values and be thrilled with a 5-10 pip gain.

- You need to just target the initial spike and get ready to close the trade within 30 seconds or so. (although not always, depending on how far off the forecast it is)

- You must only use a true ECN broker with deep liquidity.

- You must understand that slippage will always happen and will reduce your profitability, but overall I still do fantastically well.

- My win rate with news trading is 84%. But this is primarily due to choosing the right deviation trigger. This is the most important thing by far!
  • #4,711
  • Mar 26, 2014 1:51am Mar 26, 2014 1:51am
That's what I felt last November. What works for me now is to trade when everything is quiet. I stay on the sideline when there's big news. I wait when bears and bulls are tired then I come in, the kitty... hehe
  • #4,712
  • Mar 26, 2014 1:52am Mar 26, 2014 1:52am
Quoting zaghloul
{quote} I'm a fundamental trader and never liked technical analysis (or understood it). I do okay with currency pairs, and I do fantastic with news trading. I got into gold during the Crimea situation and it has been nothing but loss after loss. By end of NY session all the good traders here were saying to short and that it will hit 1300, except the exact opposite thing happened (AGAIN!). I think I'm going to stick to what I do best, economic news trading. Unfortunately that's what got me into gold in the first place.
only difference between gold and currencies is that moves in gold are bigger and it rallies. so, you need bigger stop losses. and 1300 is possible as long as 1320/27 is not taken out
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #4,713
  • Mar 26, 2014 1:53am Mar 26, 2014 1:53am
hi evry1,
someone pls guide me , i m holding gold buy from 1355, with no sl . wat shud i do.. pls tell max downside possible..is it possible to get my rates 1355 soon any sl i shud keep ???
  • #4,714
  • Mar 26, 2014 1:58am Mar 26, 2014 1:58am
Quoting golddigger
{quote} Yeah i know it sucks, i am really not a news guy i trade on my TA mostly but pay attention to FA and News as well. Maybe you just need to ignore all the "noise" here? and follow your own strategy?
I can't seem to find much a fundamental link to gold. I tried gold with a couple of US releases last week and I got screwed! Had I used USDJPY I would have done amazingly well. So the link between economic recovery and gold prices don't seem to hold too well. Also risk doesn't move gold as logically as it might seem. When Crimea started, gold went up, as it should. However it started going down at the height of the crisis and subsequently would go lower every time news emerged of a Russian takeover of a Ukrainian base. It completely became a negative correlation with risk all last week.

I will continue tinkering with gold on demo only. I would love to understand what makes this metal move, but I can't afford to lose anymore in the process.
  • #4,715
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:04am Mar 26, 2014 2:04am
Quoting zaghloul
{quote} I'm a fundamental trader and never liked technical analysis (or understood it). I do okay with currency pairs, and I do fantastic with news trading. I got into gold during the Crimea situation and it has been nothing but loss after loss. By end of NY session all the good traders here were saying to short and that it will hit 1300, except the exact opposite thing happened (AGAIN!). I think I'm going to stick to what I do best, economic news trading. Unfortunately that's what got me into gold in the first place.
if u started in january of this year, do u consider "fundamental trader" ?
fundamental analysis vs technical are not enemies, they complement each,

if u know how fundamentals..., everyong knows gold should hit at least 1400 soon, still the price is poisoned with QE reduction + low inflation, yet if u dont know technicals u dont know when to jump the bagoon,
it could go straight to 142x or before go 1.2xx area , and thats true, gold is something no one should try to trade withouth stop loss or even if in the middle term ure right is gonna kill ur account.

how do u trade gold with news, have not heard such thing before
  • #4,716
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:05am Mar 26, 2014 2:05am
Quoting Mave
{quote} only difference between gold and currencies is that moves in gold are bigger and it rallies. so, you need bigger stop losses. and 1300 is possible as long as 1320/27 is not taken out
Yes, that's the very appealing part of trading gold. I love the bigger moves. However, I can't make use of it as a fundamental analyst. I'll keep trying on demo, and will only trade with my live account when a super strong trend is happening.
  • #4,717
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:07am Mar 26, 2014 2:07am
Quoting zaghloul
{quote} I can't seem to find much a fundamental link to gold. I tried gold with a couple of US releases last week and I got screwed! Had I used USDJPY I would have done amazingly well. So the link between economic recovery and gold prices don't seem to hold too well. Also risk doesn't move gold as logically as it might seem. When Crimea started, gold went up, as it should. However it started going down at the height of the crisis and subsequently would go lower every time news emerged of a Russian takeover of a Ukrainian base. It completely became...
If you are a fundamental trader, try to take Gold as long term investment opportunity. Try to use Golden Seasons on top of your technical and see if you can benefit.
Hello World!
  • #4,718
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:12am Mar 26, 2014 2:12am
Quoting acidguy
{quote} if u started in january of this year, do u consider "fundamental trader" ? fundamental analysis vs technical are not enemies, they complement each, if u know how fundamentals..., everyong knows gold should hit at least 1400 soon, still the price is poisoned with QE reduction + low inflation, yet if u dont know technicals u dont know when to jump the bagoon, it could go straight to 142x or before go 1.2xx area , and thats true, gold is something no one should try to trade withouth stop loss or even if in the middle term ure right is gonna...
I started live last September. I consider myself a fundamental trader because of my education as an economist. Fundamentally gold should be going down down down. It should be 1100 or lower. Some fundamentalists even put it down as low as 800. QE reduction should lower gold prices fundamentally as it implies economic recovery. Similarly low inflation (not deflation) should also reduce demand for gold, because thats one of gold's primary uses, as a hedge against inflation.

As for playing the news with gold, well it wasn't a good idea. In theory, better than expected economic news from the US economy should send gold prices lower, and vice versa. But that doesn't seem to hold (at least in the immediate sense which currency pairs move).
  • #4,719
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:15am Mar 26, 2014 2:15am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} If you are a fundamental trader, try to take Gold as long term investment opportunity. Try to use Golden Seasons on top of your technical and see if you can benefit.
Still figuring out what to do with swaps. I can't get myself to trade long term yet.
  • #4,720
  • Mar 26, 2014 2:20am Mar 26, 2014 2:20am
I have absolutely nothing against technical analysis. I just don't understand it. Were always told how massive the forex market it, and how it can not be manipulated by big players like equities. So I can't understand why technical analysis would work. Why would Banks, Institutions, and Individuals care about a fibonacci number, or a resistance, or an sma? Since most are not speculative, and actually have a physical need for the currency transfer, it makes no sense? For those that are speculative, the most overriding concern is interest rate deferentials, which is purely fundamental trading.

I am in no way saying technical analysis is bad or wrong. I just don't understand it, and didn't need to understand it with currency pairs. Gold however is a whole different animal.
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