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Only Gold!

  • #2,261
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:27am Feb 7, 2014 8:27am
can someone please tell me why gold can be bearish even with such a bad NFP
  • #2,262
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:49am Feb 7, 2014 8:49am
In search of True Tail. The future direction of Gold has to leave a footprint back. One of my PA strategies is to lookup for a tail in the form of spike. This is when I'm in search of reversal on daily chart. My inclination remains towards SHORT & yea, I'm quite tired of this range lately, but, I suppose its there for a reason. I've been trying shorts & longs lately as you all know. Yea, I've been hit sometimes, had fun, made some and its ok, just fine, but, not content until it breaks out.

I would be patient for one more week. If this creates a new high after a week, that would be disgusting, beyond my scope & understanding. This is how I like to think & plan - out of the box. Any ideas out of the box are most welcome.
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  • #2,263
  • Feb 7, 2014 8:51am Feb 7, 2014 8:51am
Quoting chuna1985
can someone please tell me why gold can be bearish even with such a bad NFP
Because hanging over the market is tapering, and deflation. Even if the real inflation rate is much higher than official rates due to the way the figure is calculated now, there is less reason for many to hold gold as a hedge. Moreover, the EU does not seem to be bouncing from crisis to crisis on a daily basis. Sure, the underlying fundamentals are quite bad, and there is a lot of market manipulation by the major players (central banks), but we there will be less seasonal demand now that Chinese New Year is over coupled with longer term trends.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #2,264
  • Feb 7, 2014 9:11am Feb 7, 2014 9:11am
Here comes the daily 10:00am (EST) move....
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #2,265
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:07am Feb 7, 2014 10:07am
Quoting anton.olff
Here comes the daily 10:00am (EST) move....

There could be more volatility on Monday & Tuesday, huge PA.
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  • #2,266
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:36am Feb 7, 2014 10:36am
I'm not really understanding all the bearish sentiment on this thread. Other than the fact that is what the "golden seasons" say it should do. Since the start of this year, gold has been in an upward channel off the December lows. In fact it GAPED up at the beginning of the year. Since then we have been an entire month without filling that gap. Yes there are sellers at this years highs...there are ALWAYS sellers at any yearly high.

Of note is that each time it is sold, it is bought right back again...each time the sell off occurs the buyers answer at higher and higher levels. The basics of order flow would seem to say (at this point anyway) that the buyers are absorbing all the sell orders and sooner or later the sellers are going to give in...when that happens you will hear a "giant sucking sound" as prices rocket higher.

I have been holding long since the beginning of the year. I've been whipped a bit but that happens frequently in a trend following method. Price keeps banging its head on the ceiling and sooner or later will break through.

Of course the exact opposite could happen and the buyers give up, but from a technical standpoint I'm not seeing that. I couldn't say what is going to happen in the next 5 min, much less in the next 2 weeks...But for now my trade is long and has been that way all through this whipsaw.

this is very typical of what happens at major tops and bottoms...since we are coming off a major bottom my bet is reversal-Long
  • #2,267
  • Feb 7, 2014 10:53am Feb 7, 2014 10:53am
Quoting gspajon
I'm not really understanding all the bearish sentiment on this thread. Other than the fact that is what the "golden seasons" say it should do. Since the start of this year, gold has been in an upward channel off the December lows.

  1. Lets say you Buy 1 lot around June
  2. Sell this 1 lot in profit after a few months OR in Jan

Period.


It doesn't say anywhere to start selling in Jan, then buy in June or any such tweaks.

This has worked for the last 10 yrs+, since ages as per inputs from my forefathers.
What is so hard in understanding this simple chart? I suppose even a student from 5 std. could get this easy.

As for bearish sentiment in this thread, there are two guys who contribute other than me, Anton & Eatpips, one is long other is short. So what makes you think this thread is about sellers? You are free to trade in your way, I'm only sharing my conclusions. Feel & play like a free bird.

Wish you all a Happy Weekend!

PS: Arrow-Up is June & Arrow-Down is Jan.

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  • #2,268
  • Feb 7, 2014 11:07am Feb 7, 2014 11:07am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Lets say you Buy 1 lot around June Sell this 1 lot in profit after a few months OR in Jan Period. It doesn't say anywhere to start selling in Jan, then buy in June or any such tweaks. This has worked for the last 10 yrs+, since ages as per inputs from my forefathers. What is so hard in understanding this simple chart? I suppose even a student from 5 std. could get this easy. As for bearish sentiment in this thread, there are two guys who contribute other than me, Anton & Eatpips, one is long other is short. So what makes you think this thread...
Nicely said
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #2,269
  • Feb 7, 2014 11:28am Feb 7, 2014 11:28am
Quoting ClockTrader
...So what makes you think this thread is about sellers? You are free to trade in your way..
I meant no offense...each time I read the thread I read that the majority of opinions seem bearish. it is only my impression anecdotal at best...I'm not keeping score. Again my method of trading is to anticipate and follow...not to predict...

Quoting ClockTrader
...I'm only sharing my conclusions. ..
As am I. Obviously our conclusions differ...of such is made the markets.
  • #2,270
  • Feb 9, 2014 10:04pm Feb 9, 2014 10:04pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} I meant no offense...each time I read the thread I read that the majority of opinions seem bearish. it is only my impression anecdotal at best...I'm not keeping score. Again my method of trading is to anticipate and follow...not to predict... {quote} As am I. Obviously our conclusions differ...of such is made the markets.
You know what, I've never seen you selling. You like to buy & even buy physical, great job, awesome! I love people who buy physical Gold. I may sound bearish, you always sound bullish, so its just fine dude.

I believe in democracy, you are free to share your view, act on your will, just go free buddy.

PS: I would continue to play both Long/ Short on intraday for a while, BUT my view on broad level remains SHORT for now.
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  • #2,271
  • Feb 10, 2014 4:55am Feb 10, 2014 4:55am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} You know what, I've never seen you selling. You like to buy & even buy physical, great job, awesome! I love people who buy physical Gold. I may sound bearish, you always sound bullish, so its just fine dude. I believe in democracy, you are free to share your view, act on your will, just go free buddy. PS: I would continue to play both Long/ Short on intraday for a while, BUT my view on broad level remains SHORT for now.
Hi Clock. Just wanna say gold can't be predicted just by your strategy. Sure you know it's depending on many other facts. When going against your prediction you just insist on the opposite wave. It has a negative impact on others trades. Hope you still hold on democracy. Regards
  • #2,272
  • Feb 10, 2014 5:28am Feb 10, 2014 5:28am
Double top 4HR - could see a retrace here possibly before continuing north.

I've moved my SL below current support zone at 1266. If hit I will be reloading longs at around 1260.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #2,273
  • Feb 10, 2014 6:07am Feb 10, 2014 6:07am
Quoting EatPIPs
Double top 4HR - could see a retrace here possibly before continuing north. I've moved my SL below current support zone at 1266. If hit I will be reloading longs at around 1260.
If I were to test longs today I would buy at ~1260, SL @ 1256-58, but you know what, it may not fall yet & might just keep climbing until mid of US session ahead.

Quoting pouyanv
{quote} Hi Clock. Just wanna say gold can't be predicted just by your strategy. Sure you know it's depending on many other facts. When going against your prediction you just insist on the opposite wave. It has a negative impact on others trades. Hope you still hold on democracy. Regards
I come from World's largest democracy, I have never ever ever ever taken critics as offenders. Nobody is perfect here. Having said that apparently its needless to say that everyone has right to opine regardless of what others think. The problem area now I see is that now I count among the top 2% of members here in this forum & yea, whatever I say will have impact on other members. That would mean, I would should think twice before I opine, right?

I'm not here to make money from intraday calls or scalps, I play by seasons, I got a theory to follow & a chart here att. to support ifs & buts for many. Do I need to say again that Arrow-up is June & Arrow-Down is Jan? Do I need to wait for another decade before I start following my Golden Seasons theory? I thought one decade of trend was sufficient.
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  • #2,274
  • Feb 10, 2014 6:22am Feb 10, 2014 6:22am
Am still keeping my long to achieve 1289.7 where i believe this break out is headed , anyway if i smell a reversal am out .
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  • #2,275
  • Feb 10, 2014 6:29am Feb 10, 2014 6:29am
1273 needs to be cleared and used as new support for continuation. Which IMO will occur shortly.
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To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #2,276
  • Feb 10, 2014 7:23am Feb 10, 2014 7:23am
Well that's one of my trades TP done today.

Lets see if it breaks the previous high. Not so far off from making this more interesting.
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To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #2,277
  • Feb 10, 2014 7:56am Feb 10, 2014 7:56am
At this point, I'm scalping shorts until Thursday. My stops on my longer term shorts are laddered above 1317. Indeed, think the market could reach 1330-1335 before reversing.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #2,278
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:07am Feb 10, 2014 8:07am
Quoting anton.olff
At this point, I'm scalping shorts until Thursday. My stops on my longer term shorts are laddered above 1317. Indeed, think the market could reach 1330-1335 before reversing.

As soon as I see a nice opp.. to enter short on intraday-session level, I would love to do it, possibly hoping those seed tests evolve into nice rally/swing. I advise you to do same too. Sow test seeds of your choice to see if they can grow into nice plants.

Quoting EatPIPs
Well that's one of my trades TP done today. Lets see if it breaks the previous high. Not so far off from making this more interesting. {image}
Like always, I'm glad to see you making money
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  • #2,279
  • Edited 7:57pm Feb 10, 2014 11:02am | Edited 7:57pm
this is my current take on gold looking at price action on the daily chart,

since Nov there has been almost no follow thru after any large down movement each green arrow the price has stalled and gone up. the only exception to this is the red arrow which shows the ONLY strong follow thru on good volume but not huge enough to indicate there is alot of supply and since that down move it has gone into a weak up trend looking like absorption(big players buying from smaller ones)

the resistance/support line at 1266 goes back to 2010 and it looks like it will be holding above that today and unless there is a extremely large short covering i would think it is likely to go up to 1300ish and then come back and test the 1266 line
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  • #2,280
  • Feb 10, 2014 8:55pm Feb 10, 2014 8:55pm
Quoting evil pip
this is my current take on gold looking at price action on the daily chart, since Nov there has been almost no follow thru after any large down movement each green arrow the price has stalled and gone up. the only exception to this is the red arrow which shows the ONLY strong follow thru on good volume but not huge enough to indicate there is alot of supply and since that down move it has gone into a weak up trend looking like absorption(big players buying from smaller ones) the resistance/support line at 1266 goes back to 2010 and it looks like...
As for intra-day ahead, my clock-patterns show bullish behavior ahead, however, my volume indicators show a reversal (intraday). While I won't be surprised if it touches 1300 today, I will like to scalp play ultra-light with test seeds only OR better sit on sidelines.
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