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  • #2,101
  • Jan 19, 2014 8:26pm Jan 19, 2014 8:26pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} {quote} Personally I have no @#$%^ idea which way Gold is going to go. I repeat that using a bias, or "predicting" which way gold (or any instrument) is going to go is a waste of time. Just follow which way its going NOW...move your stops and stay with it until it changes direction...yes you may miss the very bottom or the very top...and yes you may get whipped around some. But I don't need to know, nor do I care which way gold is headed in June, or even at the end of January...all I care about is which way is it going RIGHT NOW...and am...
I try to trade without a bias as well, just trading what I see. I trade with probabilities in mind and attempt to measure them objectively. My strategy is just be profitable in the longer term and not lose money. At this point, I think the data is mixed and there are good arguments for going LONG, as well as going short. However, I think there are more "arguments" for going short in the intermediate term (3-6 months).
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #2,102
  • Jan 19, 2014 10:01pm Jan 19, 2014 10:01pm
Quoting FutureRates
{quote} This is what I belive also. Agree to the fulliest. Personally I´m hoping the pair is opening lower so I can buy cheap Good luck
Quoting mehr
{quote} Gold is expected to move to 1269-1272 or 1282-1286. I strongly feel that your SELL in January theory is likely to disprove.
Mehr, Very soon, I'm going to write a BIG article on a BLOG to explain the Golden Seasons Theory in detail. I say: "BUY IN JUNE, SELL BY/IN JAN, Retain some if you can" Now what does that mean? Does that say anywhere that you start selling in Jan & then buy in June OR start bare selling in Jan, actually that may work this year. I'd suggest, wait for the article.

Quoting anton.olff
{quote} Depending on CNY GDP later, we could see gold hit 1270...and 1288 before end of month. Longer term trend is still south with tapering.
Lets watch & see how it goes, my inclination remains towards SHORTs on a broad level for NOW.

PS: I'm also working on setting up multiple Trade Explorer accounts by mid of this year, so I can explain my stuff with clear numbers.
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  • #2,103
  • Jan 19, 2014 10:10pm Jan 19, 2014 10:10pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} {quote} Personally I have no @#$%^ idea which way Gold is going to go. I repeat that using a bias, or "predicting" which way gold (or any instrument) is going to go is a waste of time. Just follow which way its going NOW...move your stops and stay with it until it changes direction...yes you may miss the very bottom or the very top...and yes you may get whipped around some. But I don't need to know, nor do I care which way gold is headed in June, or even at the end of January...all I care about is which way is it going RIGHT NOW...and am...
I totally agree with you. Trade what you see not what you wish (Although sometimes it is tempting). What you want is a clear movement. The trap is being set up when little or no movement is happening, you think there is a movement , you take a position and suddenly moves the other way. You may not catch the perfect wave if you wait a bit you'll be able to surf it without putting yourself in trouble. But it is difficult sometimes to wait as you want to get into the action. Trading seems to magnify our self -inflicted difficulties.

Happy trading
  • #2,104
  • Jan 19, 2014 11:58pm Jan 19, 2014 11:58pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} {quote} Personally I have no @#$%^ idea which way Gold is going to go. I repeat that using a bias, or "predicting" which way gold (or any instrument) is going to go is a waste of time. Just follow which way its going NOW...move your stops and stay with it until it changes direction...yes you may miss the very bottom or the very top...and yes you may get whipped around some. But I don't need to know, nor do I care which way gold is headed in June, or even at the end of January...all I care about is which way is it going RIGHT NOW...and am...
As long as you are targeting few hundred pips here and there in Gold, you certainly need not foresee future. However, I would be startled if you make few hundred thousand pips from a rally, actually, even few thousands would startle me.

Now lets take a look at the att. screenshot (SS), after hedging that's over 10K pips in profit & heck this is nothing but chiller. I'm dead bored with the recent range.
Attached Image
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  • #2,105
  • Jan 21, 2014 8:53am Jan 21, 2014 8:53am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} As long as you are targeting few hundred pips here and there in Gold, you certainly need not foresee future. However, I would be startled if you make few hundred thousand pips from a rally, actually, even few thousands would startle me. Now lets take a look at the att. screenshot (SS), after hedging that's over 10K pips in profit & heck this is nothing but chiller. I'm dead bored with the recent range. {image}
Most of my LONGS* (edited) blew in profits as it came down, added a couple of longs @ 1240 (in order to hedge profits), I would not rule out a small bounce from 1236 up to 1245-50 range. My positions look much cleaner now. These look like 20K+ pips in profit.

If it keeps going down, I'll have lesser profit, but good sleep tonight. If the bounce from 1236 continues tomorrow too, I hope to get a nice peak to short from.
Attached Image
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  • #2,106
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:10am Jan 21, 2014 9:10am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Most of my LONGS* (edited) blew in profits as it came down, added a couple of longs @ 1240 (in order to hedge profits), I would not rule out a small bounce from 1236 up to 1245-50 range. My positions look much cleaner now. These look like 20K+ pips in profit. If it keeps going down, I'll have lesser profit, but good sleep tonight. If the bounce from 1236 continues tomorrow too, I hope to get a nice peak to short from. {image}
Good trading strategy!! I took out shorts at 1236, 1238 but I wish I had gone long as I think we are likely to see bounce to area you pointed to. Will have to wait for bounce before adding shorts...
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #2,107
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:40am Jan 21, 2014 9:40am
Quoting anton.olff
{quote} Good trading strategy!! I took out shorts at 1236, 1238 but I wish I had gone long as I think we are likely to see bounce to area you pointed to. Will have to wait for bounce before adding shorts...
Hedged (profit) a little more, removed SLs from most & trying to play safe as much, need good sleep after all. It was quite a day, learnt a lot.

Have a nice one you all!
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  • #2,108
  • Jan 21, 2014 9:50am Jan 21, 2014 9:50am
Added another long run @ 1237 targetting 1267 for this one.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #2,109
  • Jan 21, 2014 6:01pm Jan 21, 2014 6:01pm
I'm seeing decreased buying momentum from each swing high. Can't guarantee this is turning point, but it's starting to stall.
  • #2,110
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:08am Jan 22, 2014 8:08am
Quoting Orientxpress
I'm seeing decreased buying momentum from each swing high. Can't guarantee this is turning point, but it's starting to stall.
Indeed, that's what it appears, which is why I added another short at 1240. Looks less likely to hit 1265-1270, which is where I would really like to add shorts.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #2,111
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:24pm Jan 22, 2014 2:24pm
Quoting rambo12
OK almost target hit 1251 .. could hit 1251-53 on Monday in Asian. session ....short at 1248 n pending sale at 1251-55 ..SL 1263 TP open ..still I am looking for 1165 at least ..good luck and happy weekend to all of you

I hope top formed at 1261..now upside could be limited to 1248-45 and .. let's get down all the way ..!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #2,112
  • Jan 22, 2014 2:28pm Jan 22, 2014 2:28pm
Quoting anton.olff
{quote} Indeed, that's what it appears, which is why I added another short at 1240. Looks less likely to hit 1265-1270, which is where I would really like to add shorts.
If it breaks 1267 more fire towards 1310++ again. Anyhow let's see ..good luck sir
  • #2,113
  • Jan 22, 2014 5:02pm Jan 22, 2014 5:02pm
Embrace for the possibility of 1220. looks to be heading in that direction.
  • #2,114
  • Jan 22, 2014 10:53pm Jan 22, 2014 10:53pm
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Most of my LONGS* (edited) blew in profits as it came down, added a couple of longs @ 1240 (in order to hedge profits), I would not rule out a small bounce from 1236 up to 1245-50 range. My positions look much cleaner now. These look like 20K+ pips in profit. If it keeps going down, I'll have lesser profit, but good sleep tonight. If the bounce from 1236 continues tomorrow too, I hope to get a nice peak to short from. {image}
Most of my Longs blew up in small loss. Good part: each short was not hedged. Nevertheless my equity swelled with profits, yet I closed like half of shorts around 1232 - 34 , will sell again when/if it gets close to 1238 - 41 range.
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  • #2,115
  • Jan 23, 2014 12:29am Jan 23, 2014 12:29am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Most of my Longs blew up in small loss. Good part: each short was not hedged. Nevertheless my equity swelled with profits, yet I closed like half of shorts around 1232 - 34 , will sell again when/if it gets close to 1238 - 41 range.
yeah possible 1248-51 again .and that's it ..Anyhow let's see good luck sir
  • #2,116
  • Jan 23, 2014 12:47am Jan 23, 2014 12:47am
Quoting rambo12
{quote} yeah possible 1248-51 again .and that's it ..Anyhow let's see good luck sir
I'm sorry to say, but, none of your last 4-5 calls have made any sense.

Throw a chart or analysis OR AT LEAST timeframe, OK, it will reach 1248-51, but when?

Where is TP?

where is SL?
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  • #2,117
  • Jan 23, 2014 3:31am Jan 23, 2014 3:31am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} I'm sorry to say, but, none of your last 4-5 calls have made any sense. Throw a chart or analysis OR AT LEAST timeframe, OK, it will reach 1248-51, but when? Where is TP? where is SL?
1262 then was the upper edge of the rising wedge which is now broken,A broken rising wedge is generally followed by retracement to the lower edge of the wedge for a test of follow through selling.......once 1250 is done, we will commence a down wave .... in a falling wedge formation.. unless we encounter a tricky triangle. on 5H n D1 chart .BTW you can check UJ still strong ..once it hits108 ..gold will go under 1180 min.I don't follow technicals blindly you know why because the yellow metal is very very manipulated by big guys ..I do some analysis based on technicals n fundamentals .. such things I cannot post . Does not matter how you call it .. money is the only matter( TP hit or not ) ..for TP n SL you can check my previous posts .good luck
  • #2,118
  • Jan 23, 2014 6:07am Jan 23, 2014 6:07am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Most of my Longs blew up in small loss. Good part: each short was not hedged. Nevertheless my equity swelled with profits, yet I closed like half of shorts around 1232 - 34 , will sell again when/if it gets close to 1238 - 41 range.
Closed remainder shorts (most floating profit already wiped by the upswing). I'll wait for another 4 hrs or maybe until Asian session to re-asses the situation.

Quoting rambo12
{quote} 1262 then was the upper edge of the rising wedge which is now broken,A broken rising wedge is generally followed by retracement to the lower edge of the wedge for a test of follow through selling.......once 1250 is done, we will commence a down wave .... in a falling wedge formation.. unless we encounter a tricky triangle. on 5H n D1 chart .BTW you can check UJ still strong ..once it hits108 ..gold will go under 1180 min.I don't follow technicals blindly you know why because the yellow metal is very very manipulated by big guys ..I do some...
Your rock dude! You were right!
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  • #2,119
  • Jan 23, 2014 6:38am Jan 23, 2014 6:38am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Closed remainder shorts (most floating profit already wiped by the upswing). I'll wait for another 4 hrs or maybe until Asian session to re-asses the situation. {quote} Your rock dude! You were right!
I had a clean slate a while back, but, not anymore, just fired one short @ 1248, SL @ 1265

Just restarted the Game!
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  • #2,120
  • Jan 23, 2014 8:33am Jan 23, 2014 8:33am
1267 breaks n hold more fire ..let's see where it goes
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