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Macroeconomic Analysis

  • #841
  • Oct 30, 2013 4:35pm Oct 30, 2013 4:35pm

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


Some notes/charts about Renaissance Capital's III/Q 2013 US IPO Review.

Aim of the post.
The aim of this post is to summarize the main charts of the III quarter report of Renaissance IPO studies on US markets.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ mar.2013.

Main graphical elements.
See the charts.

Chart sources.
❖ Renaissance.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 1.1 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg Size: 1.0 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg Size: 219 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg6.jpg Size: 265 KB
  • #842
  • Nov 1, 2013 11:29am Nov 1, 2013 11:29am

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


Some notes/charts about Mean Prices of US Homes.

Aim of the post.
The aim of this post is to summarize some curves of mean prices of US home, divided by census regions.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ aug.2013.

Main graphical elements.
See the charts.

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-01,2013-11-01
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-01,2013-11-01
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-01,2013-11-01
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-01,2013-11-01

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
  • #843
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:38am Nov 7, 2013 9:38am

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


Some notes/charts about ETF on Social Media.

Aim of the post.
The aim of this post is to summarize some short-term structures of the main ETF of Social Media Stocks: SOCL.
Attached chart is in linear & h4 ema-format.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ aug.2012 -- may.2012 -- SOCL review.

Main graphical elements.
See the attached charts.
See also these charts: January Rule -- December Rule -- SOCL vs. main benchmarks.
M/10 or Multiple 10mo. average is a combination of the following curves (yellow-lines): sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma, Envelope-ema.

Chart sources.
❖ TradingView.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 568 KB
  • #844
  • Edited Nov 9, 2013 9:11am Nov 8, 2013 10:39am | Edited Nov 9, 2013 9:11am

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


Some notes/charts about Financial Curves for measure of U.S. recessions.

Aim of the post.
The probability of U.S. recessions are measured using some financial curves.
In this post there is the probability curve of N.Y.Fed.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ 2011: nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011.
❖ 2012: nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012.

Main graphical elements.
The N.Y. FED model uses the difference between 10y vs. 3mo. Treasury rates, to calculate the probability of a U.S. recession, twelve months ahead.
According to this spread measure we can see that the actual values of indicator are well below to the critical historical (dark-red) levels.
Moreover the short-term slope shows a descending-array of curve (see yellow arrow).
This indicator do not shows financial stress.

Chart sources.
❖ New York FED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 619 KB
  • #845
  • Edited 9:11am Nov 9, 2013 8:34am | Edited 9:11am

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


Some notes/charts about Financial Curves for measure of U.S. recessions.

Aim of the post.
The probability of U.S. recessions are measured using some financial curves.
In this post there is the simple average of OECD & NBER curves for the measure of U.S. recession probability.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ 2011: nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011.
❖ 2012: nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012.

Main graphical elements.

The average curve do not shows graphical stress, with values on the 0-line !!!


Chart sources.
❖ St.Louis FED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-09_2013-11-09
  • #846
  • Nov 9, 2013 9:09am Nov 9, 2013 9:09am

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


Some notes/charts about Financial Curves for measure of U.S. recessions.

Aim of the post.
The probability of U.S. recessions are measured using some financial curves.
In this post there is the Piger curves for the measure of U.S. recession probability.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ 2011: nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011.
❖ 2012: nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012.

Main graphical elements.

This indicators (from University of Oregon economist Jeremy Piger) is based on the measure of the probability of recession in the United States (from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model) from 4 variables:
non-farm payroll employment;

the index of industrial production;

real personal income excluding transfer payments;

real manufacturing and trade sales.
This indicator is about '' contrarian'' vs. underlyings or ''in-phase'' vs. probability of U.S. recession.
The curve shows values & main trend without financial stress behaviours (important ascending phases), but there is a recent & local sign of ascending structure, very similar to some structures of the previous phases of curve (see red squares). These local structures were often anticipatory of recessive events.

Chart sources.
❖ St.Louis FED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2013-11-09
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 330 KB
  • #847
  • Edited 2:53pm Nov 17, 2013 2:43pm | Edited 2:53pm

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


Some notes/charts about Financial Curves for measure of U.S. recessions.

Aim of the post.
The probability of U.S. recessions are measured using some financial curves.
In this post there is a complex model based on nine elements in 12mo. frame.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ 2011: nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011.
❖ 2012: nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012.
❖ 2013: nov.2013 -- nov.2013 -- nov.2013.

Main graphical elements.

This indicator is based on these variables, in annual or 12mo. frames, and two algorithm (with or without Gold):
Currency exchange rate;
Trade balance/GDP;
Foreign liabilities/foreign assets;
Ratio of M1 to trend;
Dollar/yen exchange rate;
World oil price;
Foreign reserves;
Stock price index;
Government consumption/GDP.
This indicator is about '' contrarian'' vs. underlyings or ''in-phase'' vs. probability of U.S. recession.
The curve shows values & main trend without financial stress behaviours (important ascending phases), both in long and in short term charts. The financial system appear totally stress-less; infact we are in bottom zone from ''70 years, both without Gold and with Gold !!!

Chart sources.
❖ Now&Futures.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 1,018 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 934 KB
  • #848
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:19pm Nov 25, 2013 12:19pm

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


Some notes/charts about Financial Curves for the measure of U.S. recessions.

Aim of the post.
The probability of U.S. recessions are measured using some financial curves.
In this post there are three models based on yield spreads of some U.S. Gov.Bonds.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ 2011: nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011.
❖ 2012: nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012.
❖ 2013: nov.2013 -- nov.2013 -- nov.2013 -- nov.2013.

Main graphical elements.

These indicators are based on the simple yield spread (as difference) between some pairs of U.S. Gov.Bond, in order to measure the probability of a next recession phase of U.S. economy.
The yields involved in these models are the followings: 10y, 5y, 2y, 3mo.
For the specific spread components, see the attached charts.
The main graphical element is the anticipatory behaviour of the curves in the phase pre-recession, with an important low (see yellow circles) well below the 0-line !!!
Now (2012-2013) there are not signs of this behaviour !!! The financial-economic system appear stress-less.

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 783 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 516 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 522 KB
  • #849
  • Nov 25, 2013 4:45pm Nov 25, 2013 4:45pm

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


Some notes/charts about Financial Curves for the measure of U.S. recessions.

Aim of the post.
The probability of U.S. recessions are measured using some financial curves.
In this post there is a complex and personal model based on some yield spreads of U.S. Gov.Bonds.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ 2011: nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011 -- nov.2011.
❖ 2012: nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012 -- nov.2012.
❖ 2013: nov.2013 -- nov.2013 -- nov.2013 -- nov.2013 -- nov.2013.

Main graphical elements.

This personal indicator is based on spreads (or differences) among some U.S. Gov.Bond yields, according to a simple algorithm, in order to measure the probability of a next recession phase of U.S. economy.
The yields involved in this algorithm are the followings: 30y, 10y, 2y, 1y, 6mo., 3mo.
The main graphical element is the same of the previous post: an important anticipatory behaviour of the curve in the phase pre-recession, with key low (see yellow circles) well below the 0-line !!!
Now (2012-2013) there are not signs of this behaviour !!! The financial-economic system appear stress-less.

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 408 KB
  • #850
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:32am Nov 27, 2013 4:32am

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


MACRO-ECONOMY LAB.: Delinquency Data.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some curves about the delinquency rates of U.S.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ Sep.2011

Main graphical elements.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2011-09-16
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...ate=2011-09-16
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...-16,2011-09-16

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
  • #851
  • Dec 4, 2013 12:40pm Dec 4, 2013 12:40pm

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


Some notes about FITCH: an European rating company ???

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some info on the rating company Fitch, in order to shows its structure.

Previous posts.

❖ jan.2012.


http://www.fitchratings.com/multimed...tchRatings.gif
Dual-headquartered in New York and London with 51 offices worldwide, Fitch Ratings is a global rating agency dedicated to providing value beyond the rating through independent and prospective credit opinions, research and data. Offering a world of knowledge and experience behind every opinion, we transform information to deliver meaning and utility to investors, issuers and other market participants. Fitch Ratings’ global expertise draws on local market knowledge and spans across the fixed-income universe. The additional context, perspective and insights we provide help investors make important credit judgments with confidence.
Fitch Solutions is committed to delivering value beyond the rating by providing a range of fixed-income products and professional development services to the global financial community. In addition to offering proprietary content, the firm also distributes the ratings, research, financial data and analytical tools of Fitch Ratings. With innovation and experience behind every product and service, Fitch Solutions' flexible offerings are designed to meet the diverse needs of the credit markets.
Fitch Ratings and Fitch Solutions are part of the Fitch Group, a majority-owned subsidiary of Fimalac, S.A., headquartered in Paris, France.
Fitch Ratings was founded as the Fitch Publishing Company on December 24, 1913 by John Knowles Fitch. Located in the heart of the Financial District in New York City, the Fitch Publishing Company began as a publisher of financial statistics. In 1924, the Fitch Publishing Company first introduced (see Fitch Ratings Definitions) the now familiar “AAA” to “D” ratings scale to meet the growing demand for independent analysis of financial securities (actual leadership).
Fitch Ratings was one of the three ratings agencies first recognized by the Securities and Exchange Commission as a nationally recognized statistical rating organization (NRSRO) in 1975.
http://www.fimalac.com/layouts/site/...go-fimalac.gif
Fimalac, a holding company set up and led by Marc Ladreit de Lacharrière (see Board), currently operates in three business areas (see history):
Fitch Group, which is 60%-owned by Fimalac alongside the Hearst Group, is a major financial services player with a strong presence in the ratings market (Fitch Ratings). With operations in over fifty countries, in fiscal 2010/2011 Fitch Group reported revenue of €545.0 million with an average of 2,337 employees.
Fimalac is present in the real estate sector, mainly through North Colonnade Ltd, owner of an office building in the prestigious Canary Wharf district of London that is in the process of being fitted out. Part of the building will be let to Fitch Group, which has been transfered its London headquarters there at the end of 2010, and the remaining floors will be let to outside tenants. Once completed, this asset will generate recurring revenues for Fimalac over a long period.
Fimalac is developing diversified investments, mainly through its Fimalac Développement subsidiary, acquiring stakes in competitive companies with strong growth potential. Fimalac invests in these companies alongside their managers and plays an active role in helping to run the business with the goal of to driving future growth.
Fimalac is listed on the first market of Euronext Paris (ISIN code: FR0000037947 - Reuters code : FIM). The stock is part of the CAC ALL SHARES index [see the charts below: intraday & daily one year].

Chart sources.
❖ Bloomberg, Fimalac; Fitch.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...M%3AFP&img=png
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...M%3AFP&img=png
http://www.fimalac.com/medias/le-gro...i-vertical.jpg
http://www.fimalac.com/medias/histor...historique.jpg
  • #852
  • Dec 13, 2013 7:41am Dec 13, 2013 7:41am

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


MACRO-ECONOMY LAB.: some charts about U.S. debt.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some curves about the historical situations of debt (and its components) of U.S.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ Oct.2012.

Main graphical elements.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2013-12-13
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...graph_id=94524
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...graph_id=94523
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...graph_id=94525


Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
  • #853
  • Dec 13, 2013 10:06am Dec 13, 2013 10:06am

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


MACRO-ECONOMY LAB.: some charts about global government debts.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some curves about the historical situations of debt (and its components) of some contries.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ Global Projection of General Gov.Gross Debts.

Main graphical elements.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...-15,2011-12-15
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...-15,2011-12-15
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...-15,2011-12-15
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...-15,2011-12-15
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...-15,2011-12-15

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
  • #854
  • Dec 16, 2013 2:19am Dec 16, 2013 2:19am

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


MACRO-ECONOMY LAB.: some charts about U.S. debt (part II).

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some curves about the historical situations of debt (and its components) of U.S. (part II).

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ U.S. Debt -- Global Government Debts -- Global Projections of General Gov.Gross Debts.

Main graphical elements.
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshor...x-brackets.gif
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshor...-gdp-ratio.gif
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshor...dp-history.gif
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshor...p-politics.gif
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshor...-1831-2011.png
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshor...ns-to-2022.gif
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshor...ns-to-2022.gif

Chart sources.
❖ AdvisorPerspectives.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
  • #855
  • Dec 21, 2013 8:49am Dec 21, 2013 8:49am

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


Some notes/charts about U.S. Securities Foreign Allocations.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts about the mid-term curves of US securities, according to geographical allocation of foreign holders. There are two chart-formats: net values (US Total Securities; US Treasury Bonds; US Corporate Stocks); holders total values.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ July.2012.

Main graphical elements.


The following clusters are presents in the group ''All Securities''.
Total - SellOff from the top of 2007 & 2010; now the net level is at zero level and it is in descending status.
Euro-area, UK, Switzerland - SellOff from the top of 2007 & 2010 or 2011; short term trend in ascending status.
Latin America, Australia - Important ascending trend.
Canada, Hong Kong - SellOff from the top of 2010; short term trend in descending status.
Asia, Japan - Violent SellOff in 2009-2012; now in descending status.
China, Taiwan - SkyRocket from 2011 lows.
The global trend (see net chart of Total curve) is negative. Canada, Hong Kong, Asia and Japan shows a very negative net charts, but Euro-area and UK shows an attempt of reversal after the recents SellOff.
Positive trend in net charts are showed by Latin America, China & Taiwan, and Australia. The trend of China is very explosive from the III quarter of 2012 !!!
Only China, and then UK & Latin America, shows important sizes of net values.

The following clusters are presents in the group ''Treasury Bond''.
Total, Canada - SellOff from the top of 2010, with a key low in 2012 !!!
Euro-area, UK, Germany - SellOff from the top of 2010; short term trend in descending status.
Switzerland - Violent SellOff from the tops of 2010 and 2011; short term trend in descending status.
Asia, Japan - SellOff from the 2009 top; short-term in side-trend.
Australia - Behaviour of curve similar to Asia, with a violent low in 2011 and actual short-term trend in ascending status.
China - SkyRocket from 2011 lows.
The global trend (see net chart of Total Treasury curve) is negative. Canada, Euro-area, Germany, Switzerland and UK shows negative trends of net charts.
Positive trend in net charts are showed by Asia, Japan, China, and Australia. The trend of China is very explosive from the III quarter of 2012 !!!
Only China shows important sizes of net values.

The following clusters are presents in the group ''Corporate Stocks''.
Total - Main SellOff in 2007; secondary sell-point in 2009; short-term trend in descending status.
Euro-area - Main trend in ascending status but with an important SellOff from the top of 2010.
Germany, Asia - SellOff from the 2007-2008 tops; short-term trend in ascending status.
Switzerland, Japan - First SellOff from the top of 2009, with important low in 2012 or in progress !!!
UK, Australia - Behaviour of curves are trend-less, and near to net zero-level.
Canada - Important ascending trend.
China - SellOff from the 2007 and 2012 tops; short-term level at zero.
The global trend (see net chart of Total Stocks curve) is negative. Canada curve is the only in positive trend. Short-term positive trend are showed by Germany and Asia. Net global level is positive but very low.

The following clusters are presents in the group ''Holders''.
Total - from 2008 to 2013 the curve show a progress of ~ 2.2X, without important bearish phases.
Australia - from 2009 to 2013 the curve show a progress of ~ 6.0X, with a secondary bearish phase in 2010-2011.
Brazil - from 2008 to 2013 the curve show a progress of ~ 2.0X, with a secondary bearish phase in 2008-2009.
Canada - from 2008 to 2013 the curve show a progress of ~ 6.5X, with a big bearish phase from the top of 2010.
Cina - from 2008 to 2013 the curve show a progress of ~ 2.4X, without bearish phases.
France - from 2008 to 2013 the curve show a progress from zero to ~ 65bil US$, with a secondary bearish phase in 2009-2011.
Germany - from 2008 to 2013 the curve show a progress of ~ 1.62X, with a secondary bearish phase in 2009-2011.
Japan - from 2008 to 2013 the curve show a progress of ~ 1.9X, without important bearish phases.
Russia - from 2008 to 2009/2013 the curve show a progress of ~ 3.75/4.00X, with a secondary bearish phase in 2009-2012.
Switzerland - from 2008 to 2013 the curve show a progress of ~ 4.0X, without important bearish phases.
Turkey - from 2008 to 2013 the curve show a progress of ~ 2.2X, with a secondary bearish phase in 2011-2012.
UK - from 2008 to 2013 the curve show a progress of ~ same level; this curve is in an important bearish trend toward the lows of 10y.
The UK is the only country with negative progress from the start of the recent crisis (caused by UK Q.E. ???). The size of holders ranged from 1.62X to 6.5X, with the incredible level of France from sero to 65 bil US$.
Key contries by size, are China & Japan !!!

Note.
The global status of net curves of US securities are in negative trend until to 2013 start !!! Is this caused by FED Q.E ???
From the net curve behaviours, the main sponsor of FED is China (see Treasury) from 2012 !!!
China & Japan are the main foreign store of US securities, without reversal attempts of this trend !!!

Chart sources.
❖ StatsWeeper.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 1.2 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 1.2 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 1.1 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 1.4 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg Size: 1.4 MB
  • #856
  • Dec 30, 2013 4:04am Dec 30, 2013 4:04am

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


Some notes/charts about Russia macroeconomy.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts about the macroeconomy of Russia, from 1990 until now (when it is possible), in order to shows and compare the evolution of curves vs. Europe or Euro-zone.
When it is possible, the benchmark-year is 1999.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Main graphical elements.

From 1990 to 1999, the chairman of the Russia was B. Yeltsin.
From 1999 until now, the chairman of the Russia is V. Putin.


The following data can be obtained from the attached charts, from 1999 to 2013 about.
Stocks market show a progress of ~ 10X.
Ruble devaluation ~ 3X.
GDP/capita & GDP/capita PPP ~ 2X.
Employed, 60 to 72 mil.. Unemployed, 10 to 4 mil.. Unempl.%, 14% to 5%.
Productivity ~ 2.5X.
Inflation rate ~ 0.2X.
Exports (~ 9X) > Imports (~ 10X).
Debt/GDP ~ 0.1X.

For the following data there are not the complete periods (from 1999).
Governative bonds 10y yield shows an impressive decrease in 2001-2007 & 2009-2012.
GDP growth rate below the tops of 2007-2008.
Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Business & Retal Confidences below the tops of 2007-2008 (see also the top of 2010).
Capacity of Utilization from 54 to 64 (2009-2013) but below the top of 2007-2008.
Tax rate decreasing for companies (from 24% to 20% in 2006-2013) and stable for persons (13% in 2006-2013).

Chart sources.
❖ TradingEconomics.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 963 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 751 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg Size: 705 KB
  • #857
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:07pm Dec 30, 2013 3:07pm
very nice thread, its a shame I didnt notice it before
  • #858
  • Dec 31, 2013 9:12am Dec 31, 2013 9:12am

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


Some notes/charts about Russia macroeconomy. II.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts about the macroeconomy of Russia, particularly related to life quality, from 1990 until now (when it is possible), in order to shows and compare the evolution of curves vs. Europe or Euro-zone.
When it is possible, the benchmark-year is 1999.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ Russia macroeconomy curves.

Main graphical elements.
from 1990 to 1999 the chairman of the Russia was B. Yeltsin; from 1999 until now the chairman of the Russia is V. Putin (see Russia macroeconomy curves).
The GINI index or ratio shows a little variation between 1999 to 2009 (38 to 40 pts), but an important decrease from 1992 to 2009 (48 to 40 pts) (see also the following resources for GINI index: Cia.gov; Princeton.edu; WorldBank.org).
The Mortality rates (infants and Maternal) and inequality of incomes shows important decreases.
NOx and PM10 shows a continuous decreases.
Other green house emissions shows an impressive SkyRocket.
CO2/capita shows important increase (9.7/12.0) from 1999 but with the PPP-correction it shows an important decrease (1.43 to 0.59).

Chart sources.
❖ TradingEconomics.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 509 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 982 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 973 KB
  • #859
  • Edited 5:43pm Jan 4, 2014 5:30pm | Edited 5:43pm

►FINANCIAL MARKETS OBSERVATORY LAB.◀


Some notes/charts about the possible evolution of US stocks market in 2014.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts of S&P500 and DJ Composite Average in order to obtain possible indications about (qualitative only) the evolution of the US stocks market in this year.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ITOT; IWB; IWV; IYY; THRK);
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ Analogy search for2005.
❖ Moore pattern of analogy.
❖ IOO monthly evolutions.

Main graphical elements.
The key graphical elements are marked on the charts with white squares.
The key years are the followings: 1942; 1978; 1984; 2002; 2004; 2007.
See also the Moore pattern.

Chart sources.
❖ St.LouisFED.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 297 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 344 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 369 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg Size: 311 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: ZXY-KeSaddaPhaPeKampa0320.jpg Size: 364 KB
  • #860
  • Edited Jan 7, 2014 9:24am Jan 6, 2014 2:33pm | Edited Jan 7, 2014 9:24am

►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀


Some notes/charts about Euro-zone macroeconomy, with a qualitative comparation vs. Russia data.

Aim of the post.
In this post there are some charts about the macroeconomy of Euro-zone, in order to compare (qualitative only) the evolution of same curves of Russia.
For some data there are not curves; in these cases have been used the main countries of Euro-zone.
When it is possible, the benchmark-year is 1999.

General stocks-benchmarks usefull for this post.
► Global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Previous posts.
❖ Russia macroeconomy curves I & II.

Main graphical elements.

The simbols ''<'' & ''>'' have been used in order to shows the better graphics situation (R>E or Russia better than Eu).
The following data can be obtained from the comparation of the attached charts vs. Russia charts (previous posts).
Stocks market: R>E.
Currencies devaluation: R>E.
Governative bonds 10y yield: R<E.
GDP growth rate: R<E.
GDP/capita & GDP/capita PPP (curve slopes): R>E.
Unemployed: R>>E. Unempl.%: R>>E.

Balance of Trade: R<E.
Retail Sales: R>EConfidence (Business: R<E. Consumers: R>E).

Debt/GDP: R>>E.
Industrial Production: R=E.
Capacity of Utilization: R<E.
Tax rate (Companies & Persons: R>E).
Mortality rates (Neonatal, Infants, Maternal): R<E.
CH4 & CO2 emissions: R<E.
CO2 (ppp/GDP): R with the same trend of E.
PM10: R>E.
Other green house emissions shows the same impressive SkyRocket.
Russia shows an impressive increase (from 2000 about) in macroeconomy curves and quality of life data, compared to Euro-Zone.


Chart sources.
❖ TradingEconomics.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
☻/♪ ❖ EARTH.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
I.M.O. by Sa!Vi ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
K€$ADDhAPhA'pe'KAMPA': Bunda-Bunda €MP¥R€ ❣!!!❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 986 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 897 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 1.0 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg Size: 1.1 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg Size: 483 KB
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