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  • #1,941
  • Dec 28, 2013 7:07pm Dec 28, 2013 7:07pm
Sometimes it helps to look at Xag.

We could be turning around soon.

daily chart
http://i.imgur.com/OhubeHH.jpg

we will have to see how next year starts.
  • #1,942
  • Edited 7:27pm Dec 28, 2013 7:08pm | Edited 7:27pm
Thanks for your reply

I had a monsterous message written out, but to sum it up.

GOLD
Personally my feel is we will see 1320 before we'd ever see 1050. I will eat my words if I am wrong. Yes there will be plenty of battles taking place as the bears want to protect 1250 and 1267 as previously proven. Likewise the bulls are not willing to give up the 1200 handle so easily. I have read a number of articles stating we are operating under the cost of production at $1200.. so what, I work in the Mining Industry and can tell you now the majority of mines are NOT making money in almost all regions. Is this sustainable? absolutely not, and when a mine closure happens it ripples through the industry and scares people. share prices drop, and townships vacate.. On the production side of things, most mines are ramping up and increasing production to counterweigh the price decline, but this is also unsustainable as the markets are being literally flooded and we know that an oversupply can lead to lower prices if it outweighs the demand. For now the demand is there. for now.

INTERESTING STUFF!


Silver
IMO has shown everyone it is not willing to forfeit the $19 handle and I have a positioned myself accordingly, IF we can get above the 20.20 + 20.50 resistance and flip them as support, I would look to hold my longs a little longer.

In closing, profits are made on the long and short side of this market so I do not care what the long term trend does, no trader should. I will ride it either way. I am neutral on the current trend but if the bears want to breach these strong technical supports, they dont have the fundamentals to do it. The US tapering is hillarious, we are still printing $75 billion of digital funds.. 75 BILLION!

Quoting RitalinFX
{quote} Weekly chart. if I see a break around 1180 I will be looking for a short to 1050 (the TL from 2007 - 2008), looks like the next strong support level. http://i.imgur.com/kTgg5U3.jpg a closer look. H4 http://i.imgur.com/pnXP6vg.jpg still havnt broken the downtrend line. Once we break that line I will look for a long, until then I'm looking for shorts.
  • #1,943
  • Dec 28, 2013 9:21pm Dec 28, 2013 9:21pm
Quoting Mitchoss
Thanks for your reply I had a monsterous message written out, but to sum it up. GOLD Personally my feel is we will see 1320 before we'd ever see 1050. I will eat my words if I am wrong. Yes there will be plenty of battles taking place as the bears want to protect 1250 and 1267 as previously proven. Likewise the bulls are not willing to give up the 1200 handle so easily. I have read a number of articles stating we are operating under the cost of production at $1200.. so what, I work in the Mining Industry and can tell you now the majority of mines...

I agree with Mitchoss's views about gold hitting up first 13xx area. In my humble opinion, the low of 1180 is holding up pretty well even though in this quiet market gold still manage to hold above 1200. Near term resistance in my opinion is the 1251~1264 area, once this flip 13xx is possible.
  • #1,944
  • Dec 29, 2013 7:01am Dec 29, 2013 7:01am
Keeping longs. Would like to buy more @1162-1165
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  • #1,945
  • Dec 29, 2013 7:18am Dec 29, 2013 7:18am
Short term view - gold don't allow to buy, shows that it seems to big raise soon
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  • #1,946
  • Dec 29, 2013 9:07am Dec 29, 2013 9:07am
Quoting Mitchoss
I work in the Mining Industry and can tell you now the majority of mines are NOT making money in almost all regions. Is this sustainable? absolutely not, and when a mine closure happens it ripples through the industry and scares people. share prices drop, and townships vacate.. On the production side of things, most mines are ramping up and increasing production to counterweigh the price decline, but this is also unsustainable as the markets are being literally flooded and we know that an oversupply can lead to lower prices if it outweighs the demand.{quote}...
The way I see, SEC would try its best to keep the Gold prices higher & higher so that mines & other such related Gold businesses can sustain & flourish. However, in the long run, its about survival of the fittest. Times are changing & so should the Gold Mine owners.

I'm not sure what the OLD Gold Mine Owners should do at this point (depending if they been sitting like ducks so far), however, if a Gold mine owner buys/leases a Gold mine in today's date. I would assume his cost (after each expense) is like CMP - 20% or so, he should immediately hedge & thus lock his profits.

BOTTOMLINE FOR GOLD MINE OWNERS: LEARN TO HEDGE, if you got 50 tons of Gold yield coming in 2 years & you making profit @ CMP, sell 25 - 50 tons immediately.

If the Gold mine owner is GREEDY & sits on assumption that Gold prices will rise, now that would depend on how lucky he gets.

As for townships closing, this world doesn't care if some do, who cares when thousands of people die of starvation in Africa? This is real & ruthless world.
Hello World!
  • #1,947
  • Dec 29, 2013 10:27am Dec 29, 2013 10:27am
My vision of gold
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  • #1,948
  • Dec 29, 2013 7:11pm Dec 29, 2013 7:11pm
What you have said about selling immediately is exactly what bullion banks and commercials want. The picture is being painted that prices are only going to get worse and to sell NOW, rather than at spot.

I would like to add that when we talk 'mining' we are talking about all resources. The coal industry is struggling big time, at a certain point you can only cut the guts out of budgets so much, the operating costs to run machinery etc is always going to be there. Wages/Salaries are not even close to the biggest expense to a mining company. Every 24hrs just 1!! of our excavators can consume 8,000 - 10,000 L of fuel.. Running underneath every excavator can be a range from 4-7 dumpies also consuming 2,000 - 4,000L each. Now, in most cases the mining companies will not 'OWN' that gear, and to park it can be more costly than running it in the long term (lost production etc). Most mines will operate with a certain amount of its own gear/employees while also emplying contractor fleets. These contractor fleets in most instances are already GONE, let go.

Companies are now cutting the guts out of staff and labour hire just to hang on.

Hedging is an excellent way to protect yourself from downturns like this however some small mining companies are not diversified into various minerals/metals and are feeling the pain, to me this is why the minor mining shares having accelerated just yet. They are still waiting for a catalyst, something to ensure they will survive.

Thats my view on it, I can always appreciate healthy discussion about mining, Clocktrader

Mitch

Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} The way I see, SEC would try its best to keep the Gold prices higher & higher so that mines & other such related Gold businesses can sustain & flourish. However, in the long run, its about survival of the fittest. Times are changing & so should the Gold Mine owners. I'm not sure what the OLD Gold Mine Owners should do at this point (depending if they been sitting like ducks so far), however, if a Gold mine owner buys/leases a Gold mine in today's date. I would assume his cost (after each expense) is like CMP - 20% or so, he should immediately...
  • #1,949
  • Dec 29, 2013 8:05pm Dec 29, 2013 8:05pm
Quoting Mitchoss
Hedging is an excellent way to protect yourself from downturns like this however some small mining companies are not diversified into various minerals/metals and are feeling the pain, to me this is why the minor mining shares having accelerated just yet. They are still waiting for a catalyst, something to ensure they will survive. Thats my view on it, I can always appreciate healthy discussion about mining, Clocktrader Mitch {quote}
Well, I got advise for small Gold mining companies too if they are not good at hedging. They can follow my Golden seasons, proven & tested on last 10+ years. My ancestors say this is how it has always worked and I believe its been working ever since.

Start Investing in June, Sell by/in Jan, Retain some if you can!

Apparently, this applies to investors, not traders.

Average skillsets would be required.
Hello World!
  • #1,950
  • Dec 29, 2013 8:15pm Dec 29, 2013 8:15pm
Gold does not seem that it wants to fly in the Start of the asian session. The bears are hungry.
  • #1,951
  • Dec 29, 2013 8:45pm Dec 29, 2013 8:45pm
Quoting Typhoan
Gold does not seem that it wants to fly in the Start of the asian session. The bears are hungry.
My Clock timings say its struggling hard to climb, but failing badly. Trying to climb hard in order to tempt people to buy so it can come down easily without any major load of sellers.

If there were too many sellers (a lot more than buyers), apparently, it would be climbing indeed, not sure how you concluded the bears are hungry, nonetheless, I second your thought. Things should be more clear by the time US wakes up.
Hello World!
  • #1,952
  • Dec 29, 2013 8:55pm Dec 29, 2013 8:55pm
Quoting Typhoan
Gold does not seem that it wants to fly in the Start of the asian session. The bears are hungry.
I think Japan is on holiday today, but likely there will be some movement by US Pending Home Sales release. I'm still heavy in shorts, but I would not be surprised if the news pushed gold prices higher before any drop. If past trends are any indication...and often they are not...January could be a pivotal month with big candlesticks.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #1,953
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:01am Dec 30, 2013 12:01am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} My view remains same, SHORT for now. I don't think its gonna breach 1225 level until it has gone down & I have loaded some longs.
It may be too early to say, but I think I can say that my SLs have not been hit so far.

CMP @ 1207
SL @ 1225

Fingers crossed & watching carefully.
Hello World!
  • #1,954
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:09am Dec 30, 2013 12:09am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} It may be too early to say, but I think I can say that my SLs have not been hit so far. CMP @ 1207 SL @ 1225 Fingers crossed & watching carefully.

What do you mean by CMP?
  • #1,955
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:21am Dec 30, 2013 12:21am
Quoting Typhoan
{quote} What do you mean by CMP?
Current Market Price
Hello World!
  • #1,956
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:45am Dec 30, 2013 12:45am
everyone is looking at the bottom of gold, we may had hit the bottom of gold already,
look like is going to repeat again, when the price is very low but news, banks, everyone agrees it will keep going lower the market
will zig zag for awhile and them boom... 1300 and to the sky.

then everyone question why didnt they went long.

like oil, hardly gold market will keep for much time close production price $1200.
  • #1,957
  • Dec 30, 2013 12:55am Dec 30, 2013 12:55am
Quoting acidguy
everyone is looking at the bottom of gold, we may had hit the bottom of gold already, look like is going to repeat again, when the price is very low but news, banks, everyone agrees it will keep going lower the market will zig zag for awhile and them boom... 1300 and to the sky. then everyone question why didnt they went long. like oil, hardly gold market will keep for much time close production price $1200.
There is no logic of production price, already discussed. Gold Mines can make profit even if Gold is @ 11xx or lower like $1000 (for abstract view)

Secondly, this ain't going up yet, rest assured, I'll let you know when its time.
Hello World!
  • #1,958
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:49am Dec 30, 2013 2:49am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} It may be too early to say, but I think I can say that my SLs have not been hit so far. CMP @ 1207 SL @ 1225 Fingers crossed & watching carefully.
Lower shorts closed with tiny / intraday profit, placing SL below BE.

I'd like to test some longs now above / around 1200 with SL @ 1290-95
Hello World!
  • #1,959
  • Dec 30, 2013 2:59am Dec 30, 2013 2:59am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Lower shorts closed with tiny / intraday profit, placing SL below BE. I'd like to test some longs now above / around 1200 with SL @ 1290-95
See a MAX 5 - 10 $ upside from 1202, tomorrow appears STORMY starting EURO session.

Playing SAFE, top shorts with SL below BE, testing longs from $1202 now.
Hello World!
  • #1,960
  • Dec 30, 2013 3:06am Dec 30, 2013 3:06am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Lower shorts closed with tiny / intraday profit, placing SL below BE. I'd like to test some longs now above / around 1200 with SL @ 1290-95
Hi, ClockTrader

I've been reading your opinions on Gold... and really appreciate it~

And in the post above, you said you're gonna test some longs from now on at around 1200 with SL @ 1290-95... but I think you meant 1190-95... right?

Thanks, mate~
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