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Only Gold!

  • #1,801
  • Dec 17, 2013 11:20am Dec 17, 2013 11:20am
Quoting ClockTrader
My current floating P/L is over -27K pips, yea, quite negative, looks dirty & this why I hate to see Gold falling, Grrrrr!
I'm long around 2 full lots with average price ~1290.
Target (dream) is 5 full lots with average 1200 or (miracle) 10 full lots with average 1000.
Longterm T/Ps starting from 1500 and above. Timeline - still unknown.
  • #1,802
  • Dec 17, 2013 11:35am Dec 17, 2013 11:35am
Quoting Super_Mario
{quote} I'm long around 2 full lots with average price ~1290. Target (dream) is 5 full lots with average 1200 or (miracle) 10 full lots with average 1000. Longterm T/Ps starting from 1500 and above. Timeline - still unknown.
My balance is tilting towards shorts now. The spike UP I was expecting yesterday turned out to be Dwarf type :-(

I thought you & Rambo been selling hard. I closed the green longs, left with 15 longs, hedged slowly & steadily, .

If it shoots above 1250-1260 range, hedges will close triggering longs in action, which I doubt very much.

Expecting a bad phase for investors going forward, particularly around X-Mas & New Year :-(
Hello World!
  • #1,803
  • Dec 17, 2013 11:47am Dec 17, 2013 11:47am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} My balance is tilting towards shorts now. The spike UP I was expecting yesterday turned out to be Dwarf type :-( I thought you & Rambo been selling hard. I closed the green longs, left with 15 longs, hedged slowly & steadily, . If it shoots above 1250-1260 range, hedges will close triggering longs in action, which I doubt very much. Expecting a bad phase for investors going forward, particularly around X-Mas & New Year :-(
Me? Selling Gold? OMG, no. Not even for short term speculations.
My rules and strategy are simple (almost everything needed is written in YOUR signature) and most headache is usually related with broker greed control.
Using strategy/rules where I am not really caring where it goes, but still making speculations and guesses on it's future short term movements, isn't that fabulous ?
  • #1,804
  • Dec 17, 2013 11:59am Dec 17, 2013 11:59am
Regarding Xmas & New Year - the drop should start tomorrow with FED announcing decrease in QE3 volumes (since economy in US getting better). US$ should go up and thus in XAUUSD we should expect major red candle. Only one, but big BUT - that's what everyone was expecting few months ago, that's what everyone expects now, BUT things seem to go not exactly as expected these last months. Best is not to care. Pick strategy, calculate risks and observe rules. No headache, just pure philosophy about lunar cycles and/or what FED will decide and how markets will react
  • #1,805
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:12pm Dec 17, 2013 12:12pm
Hey Clock Trader or other ones
Do you believe on Elliot wave theory? if yes what wave you see gold is? I already have weekly data from 1970 and still don't sure where we are?
  • #1,806
  • Dec 17, 2013 12:39pm Dec 17, 2013 12:39pm
Quoting Super_Mario
Regarding Xmas & New Year - the drop should start tomorrow with FED announcing decrease in QE3 volumes (since economy in US getting better). US$ should go up and thus in XAUUSD we should expect major red candle. Only one, but big BUT - that's what everyone was expecting few months ago, that's what everyone expects now, BUT things seem to go not exactly as expected these last months. Best is not to care. Pick strategy, calculate risks and observe rules. No headache, just pure philosophy about lunar cycles and/or what FED will decide and how markets...
I never rely on news for my moves. Who knows? Maybe it'll go up tomorrow? Apparently, only time can tell better.

Quoting Super_Mario
{quote} Me? Selling Gold? OMG, no. Not even for short term speculations. My rules and strategy are simple (almost everything needed is written in YOUR signature) and most headache is usually related with broker greed control. Using strategy/rules where I am not really caring where it goes, but still making speculations and guesses on it's future short term movements, isn't that fabulous ?
I honestly admire investing for loooong term. This is what I have always done. But, then, waiting for the waves to bottom out & then waiting for Bulls to get in action can be tiring. Got to make money whether its going up or down.

PS: As for long term longs, I'll follow my Golden Seasons formula, very hopeful of getting a decent entry in June-2014.
Hello World!
  • #1,807
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:03pm Dec 17, 2013 1:03pm
I'm going to chime in here again...but if you don't want to read what many may interpret as negative, please skip this comment.

First I want to say that I truly admire Clock Trader's dedication to his craft and his discipline. I find this attitude toward trading inspiring. Clock...you are obviously very intelligent and observant in your market study. If you will permit me, I have a couple of criticisms that are not meant in any way as a disparagement of you or your method.

I have mentioned this before, I think (believe) that prognosticating price movement into the distant future is rather academic. While I'm confident you have carefully measured, calculated, and correlated your findings, there is a gaping hole in your theory. I congratulate you on observing the correlation between cultural celebrations, lunar cycles, and price movements, but correlation is not causation.

Often times I fall under the same spell. I see a pattern, a correlation and check it...calculate it...test it...and then promptly lose money. Why? Because in all this analysis we tend to lose sight of one important and immutable fact. No calculation in the world can deal with the variable of PEOPLE.

People are what cause the price movements and people are extremely UNpredictable. Most of us cannot accurately predict the next few ticks much less a movement 6 or more months away. I am intrigued by your theory sir, but cannot see that is has much more probability than just random chance.

Why does price rise...simply put...because more people are buying than are selling? Why are people buying? We will NEVER know. But it really doesn't matter... A large segment of buyers may be buying to celebrate a religious holiday, and that may or may not have an effect on the price movement...but we must remember we are dealing with the WORLD gold market, not just one segment.

It is easy to say that the world is literally waiting with baited breath on what the FOMC will do, but that is not all of it. As humans we like the "comfort" of being able to correlate and find a "cause" for something we don't understand. That is the basis of religion, (in my opinion), but the truth is when it comes to price movement, I don't really know, neither does anyone.

Accuracy in this game is relative. We live in a world of probabilities and those probabilities are NEVER 100%. However if you have an exploitable edge that gives you greater than chance, then you can make money...I hesitate to say that edge can predict...it can only react.

I continue to watch with great interest your method, but remain faithful to my method...(which BTW, has me getting whipped around over the past three weeks)...such is trading. I doubt I will ever be able to predict what will happen in the next few minutes, much less the next few months, but I am confident that if price rises (within certain parameters) I will be long, and if price falls (within certain parameters), I will be short.

I am trading both the loooong term and the short...my short term hedges my long term (physical) positions and so I am happy to say the value of my total gold position loses only slightly in a down market and recovers quickly. During a bull market...watch out.
  • #1,808
  • Dec 17, 2013 1:54pm Dec 17, 2013 1:54pm
I am going to take a risky buy around 1220-14 with strict SL 1208 . Tomorrow before FOMC meeting ..anyhow I will update again .good luck all
  • #1,809
  • Dec 17, 2013 9:54pm Dec 17, 2013 9:54pm
Quoting amir2011
Hey Clock Trader or other ones Do you believe on Elliot wave theory? if yes what wave you see gold is? I already have weekly data from 1970 and still don't sure where we are?
Not really, I've heard about it though. Secondly, the important thing, I wonder if you can share your data with me? pm me if you can.

Quoting Super_Mario
Regarding Xmas & New Year - the drop should start tomorrow with FED announcing decrease in QE3 volumes (since economy in US getting better). US$ should go up and thus in XAUUSD we should expect major red candle.
How about making money? Which I believe is the most important. There are people who invested at 1800, 1700, 1600, 1500 levels, they are still invested & hopefully will remain invested, play one direction, right? I have done that too, I still intend to, but, using my Golden Seasons Theory only.

Guys, whatever you do, just make sure you play safe. One may be long, other may be short, both may close with profits & both may end up hitting SLs, this is Forex guys, just play safe & make sure you make money by the end of day/month/year.
Hello World!
  • #1,810
  • Dec 17, 2013 10:17pm Dec 17, 2013 10:17pm
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Not really, I've heard about it though. Secondly, the important thing, I wonder if you can share your data with me? pm me if you can. {quote} How about making money? Which I believe is the most important. There are people who invested at 1800, 1700, 1600, 1500 levels, they are still invested & hopefully will remain invested, play one direction, right? I have done that too, I still intend to, but, using my Golden Seasons Theory only. Guys, whatever you do, just make sure you play safe. One may be long, other may be short, both may close with...
very nice words, for long term yes, but sadly we have to remember gold is being driven heavily by some foreign investors and banks which want quick profit,
so they go jumping from one to another instrument like rabbits, gold was heavily bought last year as stocks were very choppy, the japaneses had to do something with the yen, as the stocks markets rised gold was dumped heavily this year.

its also curious to say, if morgan and many other big bank were bullish on USD and big bearish on Gold and most of them this week changed positions for longing euro and shorting usd.

do they still remain bearish gold 2014 ?
in my humble opinion i think we are in support or very close in the 11xx for a resume of the uptrend,
countries like China and many others are sure watching very closely prices, they will dump happily dollars for Gold very soon as the downtrend lose action like is happening right now.

.. and tomorrow.... will be a great day for entries as Fed talks QE.
  • #1,811
  • Dec 18, 2013 4:53am Dec 18, 2013 4:53am
Quoting Super_Mario
{quote} My rules and strategy are simple (almost everything needed is written in YOUR signature)
I just changed it, so that it looks more scientific & meaningful. If one really tends to build longs for long term, I would suggest start in June.
Hello World!
  • #1,812
  • Dec 18, 2013 1:27pm Dec 18, 2013 1:27pm
OK, symbolic taper as was consensus. Clearly, the trend is down towards 1,000 over the next 6 months.

Had closed my shorts before the news and took a small loss...which I made up for on short scalps. Now short from 1239 with first target at 1188.
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"
  • #1,813
  • Dec 18, 2013 8:07pm Dec 18, 2013 8:07pm
STORMY is the word to describe what happened as soon as I hit bed last night. Nevertheless, it was in line with my view. Lets see where this takes us from here.
Hello World!
  • #1,814
  • Dec 18, 2013 8:26pm Dec 18, 2013 8:26pm
Quoting rambo12
I am going to take a risky buy around 1220-14 with strict SL 1208 . Tomorrow before FOMC meeting ..anyhow I will update again .good luck all
Don't mean to be pricky, but wonder about your view here?

CMP 1221 after touching 1215
Hello World!
  • #1,815
  • Dec 19, 2013 3:00am Dec 19, 2013 3:00am
RAMBO......target hit hit hit 1200 first ...boom boom
  • #1,816
  • Dec 19, 2013 3:02am Dec 19, 2013 3:02am
Dear Clock Trader
Are you still have your long? in better word are you still optimistic about buying Gold? as I rememberd your breack out time for price passed last week.

Thanks
  • #1,817
  • Dec 19, 2013 3:38am Dec 19, 2013 3:38am
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Don't mean to be pricky, but wonder about your view here? CMP 1221 after touching 1215

Sir that was my call before FOMC meeting . we have not seen 1220-14 before meeting so I did not take any buy position
  • #1,818
  • Dec 19, 2013 3:38am Dec 19, 2013 3:38am
Managed to get my long order triggered at 1200. This price is just perfect for me long term. TP set at 1468.

Will hedge in between where I see decent opportunities but this trade is staying put.
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #1,819
  • Dec 19, 2013 3:50am Dec 19, 2013 3:50am
g'day 2 all...

warm greeting from me.
i wanna share my small view about gold :
too fast to get long this time at least 1.180 still on target for gold

my self try to get away from gold except i get good point to get in.

peace.
  • #1,820
  • Dec 19, 2013 5:59am Dec 19, 2013 5:59am
Quoting amir2011
Dear Clock Trader Are you still have your long? in better word are you still optimistic about buying Gold? as I rememberd your breack out time for price passed last week. Thanks
Yes, dear, I was, I am & I always will be long for loooong term.

However, in order to play right, I hedged all my longs yesterday & on top of that even added shorts.

You might wanna read below:

Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} Not really, I've heard about it though. Secondly, the important thing, I wonder if you can share your data with me? pm me if you can. {quote} How about making money? Which I believe is the most important. There are people who invested at 1800, 1700, 1600, 1500 levels, they are still invested & hopefully will remain invested, play one direction, right? I have done that too, I still intend to, but, using my Golden Seasons Theory only. Guys, whatever you do, just make sure you play safe. One may be long, other may be short, both may close with...
Quoting ClockTrader
{quote} My balance is tilting towards shorts now. The spike UP I was expecting yesterday turned out to be Dwarf type :-( I thought you & Rambo been selling hard. I closed the green longs, left with 15 longs, hedged slowly & steadily, . If it shoots above 1250-1260 range, hedges will close triggering longs in action, which I doubt very much. Expecting a bad phase for investors going forward, particularly around X-Mas & New Year :-(
I'm good with shorts right now, will hedge some shorts below, if it shoots beyond 1245, my shorts will break making longs active. Hedged shorts will turn longs.
Hello World!
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