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Does the martingale system really work?

  • #381
  • Dec 6, 2013 3:05pm Dec 6, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting Mikkk01
EDIT: only thing I can add is that by withdrawing money I DON'T increase the probability of a failure. Won't explain why - was already done before me - not on the example of withdrawing, anyway, if can't find google a little.
That is the point.I didnt mean literal increase of probability but if you have a longer path to 1m$ then by having to trade more by martingale you expose yourself more to the risk, therefore your chances of failure increase.
It is a relative probability, the more times you do something the bigger the chances that they will happen.

If you can achieve another 500k from the 500k in 50 trades,by withdrawing 250k and leaving only 250k in your account you have to take 75 steps.

Therefore increasing your exposure to the risk.So chances are higher that you`ll lose that 250k than you win another 750k.
But if you'd have 500k you have a bigger chance of getting another 500k than from the previous example 750k its logical.

Of course in the first way you'd have 250k secured. And lost the other 250k, that would be still a 250% growth starting from 100k
But in the second example youd have 1000000, from the initial 100k that would be 1000% growth.
Choose!
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #382
  • Dec 6, 2013 3:47pm Dec 6, 2013 3:47pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} That is the point.I didnt mean literal increase of probability but if you have a longer path to 1m$ then by having to trade more by martingale you expose yourself more to the risk, therefore your chances of failure increase. It is a relative probability, the more times you do something the bigger the chances that they will happen. If you can achieve another 500k from the 500k in 50 trades,by withdrawing 250k and leaving only 250k in your account you have to take 75 steps. Therefore increasing your exposure to the risk.So chances are higher...
You are missing several pretty basic points - make some research you'll probably find answers, I'm sure a couple of competent guys will give you some advice - sorry, but it won't be me cause I'm against martingales as you put it and not really into explaining the basics - maybe if it was about psychology I would elaborate a little - definitely not about martingale - not my favourite topic, especially in the way you see it.
Good luck.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #383
  • Dec 6, 2013 3:56pm Dec 6, 2013 3:56pm
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} You are missing several pretty basic points - make some research you'll probably find answers, I'm sure a couple of competent guys will give you some advice - sorry, but it won't be me cause I'm against martingales as you put it and not really into explaining the basics - maybe if i was about psychology I would elaborate a little - definitely not about martingale - not my favourite topic, especially in the way you see it. Good luck.

I`m neither into martingale, i never used it in forex, and i never will because i know it's disadvantages.I was just disproving your point.If the market is statistically independent or if it's not, in either cases it won't work.I believe its the last one, since the candlesticks will follow a path (fundamental factors) or else there would be no edge present.I would be only a coin toss game.

If it were independent then yes you might have a point there,worth for a debate alteast.And BTW why are you posting in a martingale thread if you are not into it?
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #384
  • Dec 6, 2013 4:16pm Dec 6, 2013 4:16pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote}I was just disproving your point.
What exactly were you trying to disprove? As far as I can see you've just tried to say that it's even worse that usual martingale [which you didn't manage to prove by the way]...
Quoting Proximus
{quote}And BTW why are you posting in a martingale thread if you are not into it?
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} I'm against martingales as you put it
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} not really into explaining the basics
I just know it works the way I put it [as I explained]. If in doubt - you can try demo for that matter [what I wrote was just general overview - many other variables to consider]. Results won't be amazing, still... I know system that gives some results - I shared it. Feel free to say it's crap [if you can prove that] or point out pitfalls or use it or just not... whatever
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #385
  • Dec 6, 2013 4:30pm Dec 6, 2013 4:30pm
Quoting Mikkk01
Results won't be amazing, still... I know system that gives some results - I shared it. Feel free to say it's crap [if you can prove that] or point out pitfalls or use it or just not... whatever
I`m sorry i missed that system.Can you link it or send it to me in PM, i will analyse it.As for its validity i didnt analysed martingale so profound but i know a few stuff about it but i don't know any certain 100% working way to win with it, which you are stating that you have.I said that by using the ^20 doubling method you might have a good chance, but it's not practical,yet not impossible.

As for your system, i dont know "managing" it what difference does it make.It's like those systems which are sold on the internet for roulette, where they show you a "special" or "unusual" keyworded method to bet on roulette numbers when in fact everyone knows that in roulette the max chance you have is 47.3 or so, in some casinos maybe a bit higher but still not enough.So you can try as hard as you want if the odds are agains you, the only thing you have is luck, wether you have or not it's irrelevant, in long term you will lose anyway.

So you might martingale youself 1m $ in roulette (starting from its minimum bet size of 100$ as you said), if you are very lucky (almost as lucky have to be as to win the lottery),since you dont have enough money to reach ^20, you have to stop doubling much earlier, and so the chances of falure will increase.

But i never saw anyone being a full time roulette player ,and doing that "full time job" for more than a week until he loses all his money
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #386
  • Dec 6, 2013 4:41pm Dec 6, 2013 4:41pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} I`m sorry i missed that system.Can you link it or send it to me in PM, i will analyse it.As for its validity i didnt analysed martingale so profound but i know a few stuff about it but i don't know any certain 100% working way to win with it, which you are stating that you have.I said that by using the ^20 doubling method you might have a good chance, but it's not practical,yet not impossible. As for your system, i dont know "managing" it what difference does it make.It's like those systems which are sold on the internet for roulette, where...
I can put a bunch of EAs here which are using martingale and do work, if you need them. They work just as I explained: you'll need to withdraw money on a regular basis. Although I won't give any instructions or explanations on them - if you wanna delve into it - go ahead...
I did saw people profitable on this stuff...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #387
  • Dec 6, 2013 4:50pm Dec 6, 2013 4:50pm
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} I can put a bunch of EAs here which are using martingale and do work, if you need them. They work just as I explained: you'll need to withdraw money on a regular basis. Although I won't give any instructions or explanations on them - if you wanna delve into it - go ahead... I did saw people profitable on this stuff...

No thanks then.I though you have a real system which combines martingale, but this is just the stuff that i said 4-5 pages ago and many of the guys disproved me, so i think you are wrong too.

I have much better systems than martingale.And if you say its so good why dont you use it?

Quoting Mikkk01
{quote}I did saw people profitable on this stuff...
Yes you may saw 10-20 people profitable with it, but you didnt saw the other 999999999 people who were not profitable with it.

It is called luck , and it has no statistical meaning or advantage
Don't let yourself fooled with all those internet advertising stuff.Many of the guys on this thread actually disproved that it would NOT work on short rows.The only way it can work is to double it for a long time to decrease the chance of losing the row.But increasing this relative winrate you need to increase to risk too, and a guy pointed out that although the winrate increases linearly the risk increases exponentially, so its a bad gambling method.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #388
  • Edited 5:45pm Dec 6, 2013 5:01pm | Edited 5:45pm
Quoting Proximus
{quote} No thanks then.I though you have a real system which combines martingale, but this is just the stuff that i said 4-5 pages ago and many of the guys disproved me, so i think you are wrong too.
EAs ARE real systems, the DO work [at least some]. You can think whatever you want - I don't really give a damn - you'd better show some proof.
EDIT: what 'guys' explained to you has NOTHING to do with what I was talking about.
Quoting Proximus
{quote} And if you say its so good why dont you use it?
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Wouldn't recommend it to anybody at all as I consider this strategy to be inferior [although working] and less profitable [you CAN'T use compounding in the true sense of the word] to standard [let it be even 5-10% risk per trade] rigid risk exposure MM.
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Yes you may saw 10-20 people profitable with it, but you didnt saw the other 999999999 people who were not profitable with it.
Well, you don't know that for sure anyway! I doubt you'll believe me on that so won't continue...
Quoting Proximus
{quote} It is called luck , and it has no statistical meaning or advantage
No, it's not and actually it has.
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Don't let yourself fooled with all those internet advertising stuff.
That's just funny
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #389
  • Dec 6, 2013 5:10pm Dec 6, 2013 5:10pm
If you're really that interested I can try to find real accounts of those 'people' with myfxbook monitoring. Won't promise, though...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #390
  • Dec 6, 2013 6:42pm Dec 6, 2013 6:42pm
Quoting Mikkk01
If you're really that interested I can try to find real accounts of those 'people' with myfxbook monitoring. Won't promise, though...
Found three accounts:

http://www.myfxbook.com/ru/members/p...eaproru/543916

http://www.myfxbook.com/ru/members/p...eaproru/367881

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Jaym...-martin/195905

That's more than enough - tell them it doesn't work...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #391
  • Dec 6, 2013 7:30pm Dec 6, 2013 7:30pm
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Found three accounts: http://www.myfxbook.com/ru/members/p...eaproru/543916 http://www.myfxbook.com/ru/members/p...eaproru/367881 http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Jaym...-martin/195905 That's more than enough - tell them it doesn't work...
Track record not verified

Track record not verified

Trading privileges not verified
....

It can be easily falsified without any verification.But even if they are true, those accounts are ticking bombs, they will blow up soon.And even if they did cash out and made serious profits with this tehnique, i bet that if we all on this forum would try the same, maybe 10-20 of us would get lucky and repeat the same stuff, i`m sure the other guys would all lose cash.

Thats my opinion.But this our conversation was a dialogue, i`m curious what other people's opinions are, because i could talk here hours and i cant convince you i`m hoping other guys can.I`m just sorry that i have so poor influence skills
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #392
  • Edited 10:25pm Dec 6, 2013 8:07pm | Edited 10:25pm
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Found three accounts: http://www.myfxbook.com/ru/members/p...eaproru/543916 http://www.myfxbook.com/ru/members/p...eaproru/367881 http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Jaym...-martin/195905 That's more than enough - tell them it doesn't work...
These are typical martingale equity curves. Sure they "work". I've seen martingales that "work" for more than 2 years.

No offense, but you apparently don't understand the nature of martingale. It "works" because it delivers continuous guaranteed recovery — doubling will always return equity to breakeven+1 — but at the cost of increasing risk of ruin exponentially. Hence these myfxbook accounts will continue to make consistent gains until one day they suddenly and unexpectedly implode. Look at the dips in the yellow lines. One of them will eventually (and probably sooner rather than later) dip low enough to blow the account. Each dip increases exponentially — at the rate of 2^x — because the position size is being doubled. Just ONE 'death sequence' is all that it takes to undo several months' worth of continuous winning. And then everything is gone.

As for withdrawing money, that merely increases risk of ruin. The less money in the account, the less doubles the account can survive. And if your trade sizes are in some way proportional to account size, smaller account size = smaller positions = smaller returns. And smaller returns means the longer it will take to reach your personal financial target; and the longer it takes to reach your target, the greater the probability that the death sequence will occur before that. The longer you expose yourself to unlimited risk, the greater the likelihood that disaster will happen.

Martingale is for people who can't find a way of trading like the professionals do — an 'edge' that makes money over time. Hence they resort to high risk gambling. It is the antithesis of prudent money management. No serious professional trader uses uncapped progressive staking.

I won't be replying again, as I've already made the points I wanted to earlier in this thread. Bottom line is, you either believe in statistics and probability, or you don't.
  • #393
  • Dec 7, 2013 2:52am Dec 7, 2013 2:52am
Quoting Proximus
{quote} Track record not verified Track record not verified Trading privileges not verified .... It can be easily falsified without any verification.But even if they are true, those accounts are ticking bombs, they will blow up soon.And even if they did cash out and made serious profits with this tehnique, i bet that if we all on this forum would try the same, maybe 10-20 of us would get lucky and repeat the same stuff, i`m sure the other guys would all lose cash. Thats my opinion.But this our conversation was a dialogue, i`m curious what other...
You write crap.
Do you even know what these 'track record' and 'trading privileges' mean? click this http://data3.floomby.com/files/share...uCTyNdkp3g.png
'10-20' thing... I don't give a damn how many people lose if they're so dumb that can't use the system right.
I don't need to be convinced cause I know it works. You can say: 'bullshit' - good on you, this won't work any worse...
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #394
  • Edited 7:16am Dec 7, 2013 3:07am | Edited 7:16am
hanover
No offense but you didn't read my posts
At least didn't get what you read... as I agree with most of your affirmations.
I never said martingale user's account will live forever, I said otherwise.
Neither I ranked this system as any 'good':
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Wouldn't recommend it to anybody at all as I consider this strategy to be inferior [although working] and less profitable [you CAN'T use compounding in the true sense of the word] to standard [let it be even 5-10% risk per trade] rigid risk exposure MM. {quote}
And you can say whatever you want but it just works this way [poorly but works]... Surely, accounts will blow up - but that's an expected outcome, same as a usual loss in trading.
You guys won't use martingale either way [neither will I] for those crazy ones who can't see there're better options - this [what I proposed] will work.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #395
  • Dec 7, 2013 3:24am Dec 7, 2013 3:24am
Martingale can make you very wealthy, if and only if you happen to be a broker, or a casino.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #396
  • Dec 7, 2013 7:40am Dec 7, 2013 7:40am
Quoting vox dei
Martingale can make you very wealthy, if and only if you happen to be a broker, or a casino.
Surely, it won't make you very wealthy.
I doubt it'll make you any wealthy at all as majority of people don't know how to use martingale so that it's even low-profitable [but still]. Thus that belief that it can't be profitable [it can] which is based on people who are gamblers, come and say: here it is - we'll never lose and thinking they'll surpass Soros by Christmas, then get
Quoting Mikkk01
that 2$ thing with 96,... % loss
Furthermore, if even you know how to use it right, still, it's not such a good idea anyway! [as I explained]
So, for those who managed to understand my concept obvious option is: go look for something else as it [martingale in whatever form] is simply worse than standard MM and will never give you any advantage over it.
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #397
  • Edited 8:09am Dec 7, 2013 7:57am | Edited 8:09am
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} Found three accounts: http://www.myfxbook.com/ru/members/p...eaproru/543916 http://www.myfxbook.com/ru/members/p...eaproru/367881 http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Jaym...-martin/195905 That's more than enough - tell them it doesn't work...
For those crazy people who still want to use martingale I've attached 2 EAs. First EA is monitored on the second link, on first an third links second EA is monitored. Although, I won't give ANY recommendations or explanations. If you're so mad that couldn't get it's not a good idea - go learn how to play with them on your own.
Attached File(s)
File Type: rar 1.rar   5 KB | 575 downloads

Attached File(s)
File Type: rar 2.rar   17 KB | 557 downloads
The single most important factor is having control of your own life.
  • #398
  • Dec 7, 2013 9:15am Dec 7, 2013 9:15am
everything works if you know how to make it work!!!! -- that is why even things that don't work for 99% of us work for 1% of us
DON'T TRADE THE DIRECTION, TRADE THE MOVE
  • #399
  • Dec 7, 2013 3:29pm Dec 7, 2013 3:29pm
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} You write crap. Do you even know what these 'track record' and 'trading privileges' mean? click this {image} '10-20' thing... I don't give a damn how many people lose if they're so dumb that can't use the system right. I don't need to be convinced cause I know it works. You can say: 'bullshit' - good on you, this won't work any worse...

I have a good feeling that you are insulting me, and trolling in this thread.

Trading privilege is that of when you validate that your account is yours or not.Ok we dont care who's account is only that it is possible or not.And since you claim that its possible to trade like that, ok lets put that aside.

But track record means that if its not veriied than that track record could have come from elsewhere.

For example suppose i make a demo account at alpari starting with 1000$ (demo), then i blow it up by using martingale, but just before blowing up, when i see that the equity curve gets very low (lets say from 1500$ to 200$)i close the FXBOOK recording EA, and quickly make another demo account at FXCM or whatever, starting with 1500$, and put the FXBOOK recording EA on that, so that way even if I blow up the first account that doesnt get recorded and the new account will start with 1500$ like if nothing happened in between.And the EA doesnt even detect that the information is from an another broker and account number.It's just easy as that to create false data.And that will fool many people.

And even if they pull out to create a valid and legitimate real account to test martingale with it, they still going to fail, because it was pointed out like 9999x times on this thread.So why not read some earlier posts and stop trolling here.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
  • #400
  • Dec 7, 2013 3:41pm Dec 7, 2013 3:41pm
Quoting Mikkk01
{quote} For those crazy people who still want to use martingale I've attached 2 EAs. First EA is monitored on the second link, on first an third links second EA is monitored. Although, I won't give ANY recommendations or explanations. If you're so mad that couldn't get it's not a good idea - go learn how to play with them on your own. {file} {file}
Ok just for your very insisting arguments i will write a program which will simulate a martingale system, with withdrawal of money, and see if you do get to put something aside.

I`m tired of explaining stuff to you, so why not do an experiment if the theory is not so convincing?

I will use a huge set of random 0,1`s marking win and losses in a 50-50% enviroment, which will be totally random, not pseudorandom, which i will get from random.org

0-s will mean a losing trade and 1's will mean a winner trade.

It will be just like a trading session - the slippage and spread (but consider the results better than expected) and still it will fail.

To prove once and for all that the martingale will fail no matter what, you might be lucky but other 9999999 people wont be, thats the point

I hope that after this experiment we can close this thread once and for all, it has been a too long discussion.
"There's a sucker born every minute" - P.T. Barnum
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