I'll start with the usual disclaimer: I'm sharing stuff and starting threads with pure intention to help my fellow traders. But it is only an offer, not a duress, not a threat. So if you don't like it, or you don't like me, absolutely no one is asking you to read it.
So, price is told to be random per conventional wisdom. There is no way you'll be able to tell where the future direction will be they say.
Let's start with the foolish argument against that statement.
ran·dom
/ˈrandəm/
Adjective
- Made, done, happening, or chosen without method or conscious decision: "a random sample of 100 households".
- Governed by or involving equal chances for each item.
If price is really random then for one second EU can be at 1.3000, and the next at 0.8000, the next at 25.9786. That's random. And stupid way to interpret it.
Some gambling retail traders often gamble their money away because they know price is random, but technical indicators somehow give comfort, and they trade away.
For real retail traders you CANNOT afford to think that price is random. No. There is order, there is cycle, there is pattern in any financial market.
If price is random, would banks and large institutions gamble their billions?
Would big boys say "Let's put our real money worth about $1 billion (which is about 20% of our profit this year) into this currency pair, and just see what happens. We might get lucky. We might lose it all. Randomness is exciting isn't it?"
No. No matter how many books, textbooks, academic journals, articles by gurus and experts, who enforce the belief that price is moving in random fashion, price is a consciously controlled mechanism, used by the powerful, to benefit the few.
I'll talk more about this as this thread develops.