Only Gold!

my trade small with low conviction. Just to pass time to next big signal. 2% of my full bet size.

As for the bet size, I try to start low with one position, if my clock supports, I keep adding positions. If you think you are in the right direction & your signals keep supporting your direction, you may wanna buy more. I'm still learning, each time my expertise improves with lessons, I feel adrenaline rush. But, heck! learning is expensive here.

I use biggest size only when market trending other way to what I expect to happen so I am gunning for a bottom or top - trend reversal. If stop not hit and reverses quickly, then double up and tighten stop so total risk is not above my max bet at any point. Adding more later on, increases amount you have to risk or too narrow stop. Then sit tightly and not look at position to minimise andrenaline stuff.

exit with small profit. not reacting well enough to keep.

ClockTrader,

Congrats on your thread and fans! As a fellow gold trader, I have a few questions for you:

1) Year to date, are you actually positive with this strategy? What's your ROI%? (Including open positions).......What is your Sharpe Ratio?

2) It seems like you are trying to take advantage of a relationship between Indian peoples' gold buying habits during holidays, and gold's price. It also looks like you are trading gold priced in US Dollars. If Indian people are buying this gold in their local currency, why would you not trade gold priced in Indian Rupees?

3) How much gold buying actually takes place in India as a result of these holidays? ...as a proportion of total worldwide daily gold trading? Are we talking peanuts or is this Indian gold buying on par with central bank purchasing?

4) How do you quantify the relationship between Indian holidays and changes in gold's price? What is the mathematical correlation between the quantity of Indian gold buying and gold price? Have you done any time series analysis to discover seasonality in the price of gold as a function of Indian Holidays? There are a lot of smart people out there who would exploit any sort of seasonality before you could ever get to it. Here's an example:

A naive trader realizes that people in the northeast part of the USA buy a lot more heating oil in the winter than the summer to heat their homes because of the cold winter temperature; therefore the naive trader would think a smart trade would be to buy heating oil futures in the summer, and then sell them in the winter. In actuality, this strategy by itself would not work. During the summer, the market will already factor in peoples' expected buying in the future because today's price already takes into account all (or almost all) known information and expectations of future buying/selling. Buying heating oil futures in the summer and selling them in the winter could only deliver superior risk-adjusted returns in the long run if you somehow figured out that people would buy more heating oil that winter than the entire market already expected.

I'm definitely not saying the Efficient Market Hypothesis is perfectly true because if it was, I wouldn't be making anywhere near as much money; however, do you really think you picked up on the buying habits of an entire country that the rest of the market missed? If there actually is a seasonality, why do you think other market participants have missed it to the point that this seasonality is not already discounted in today's current price?

5) In my opinion, there are many big events happening in the gold market that you may be missing if you only choose to take these types of "Indian holiday" gold buying trades. Do you think that maybe you are making your job more difficult by ignoring or not acting on other information out there?

6) Many of the fundamental events that affect the market's price of gold, also affect other metals. Have you considered trading the spread between gold and other metals? For example: If you believe that gold price will go up and the price of other metals wouldn't necessarily change, you could buy gold and sell a basket of other metals (Silver, Platinum, etc...) at the same time. You would be hedged against downturns in the metals markets and profit from increased demand in gold.

-Finn

You sign up here at FF & your first post is like 500 words long aiming at my personal info + all the ancient physics we Indians follow. I would be happy to answer most of your ques., however, before that, I would like to know your real identity if I can. I would appreciate if you pm me your real name & complete designation with your office / work phone no.

regards,

Sam

break of 1328 I shorted stoploss now 1317

Closed all of the free shorts I had. All long roots remain hedged. Net Position NULL.

Time to hit bed, have a nice one you all.

Very strong bull candle close on 4HR. I rode that one up and closed at the top opening some new positions along the way looking to make a new high.

You'll find that was a 1HR candle not 4 HR?? Still think another move down likely before resuming up.

Apologies, it was a typo

I meant 1HR candle.

hello everybody, I am newbie here and I'd be thankful for all your information about gold.
I was currency player and few days ago I started to play gold.
I think it will be better if I can find any communities where I can share any ideas each others.
And here I am.

Here I send my greetings for all of you
Hope you all the best

Glad to see that it worked great for you. I just woke up to see it on top of this hill. Completely surprised. However, I won't be surprised if it goes up 1342 later in the Asian or US session. Fingers crossed.

Released (Closed) 4 shorts (hedged positions) for no loss/profit in order to make 4 long roots active. 5 long roots remain hedged.

Where are your long positions dude?

9 long roots avg @ 1206, screenshot posted several times on previous pages.

If we close back into the lower box under previous lows from yesterday, I would be looking at 1300 as support, failing that, it would be back to 1278 IMO however I am potentially looking for a close above the box this week 1336-1337 area and eventually retesting the 1347 area.

Today's news has shaken it a bit retouching the lower TL of the upward channel but has been retracing back ok so far.

Gonna see where it goes on the next hourly candle

any1 knows where dis market gonna lead us from here????????? current price is 1313.50

Up or down ?

U can guide me....