Gold futures & XAU

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
[justify]INR rose for the first time in 3 days as some investors judged its decline to a 10-month low yesterday to be excessive. The INR strengthened 0.1 % to 56.1400. 1-month volatility, rose 1 BP , or 0.01 % point, to 8.99 %. 3-month forwards traded at 57.07 Vs. 57.14 . 3-Month NDF was at 57.02 vs.57.13.[/justify]
FACTORS

1. Technical: The 14-day RSI is 77.6, above the 70 threshold
2. Global funds bought $14.8 Bln. of Stocks and $38.5 Bln of Debt (new high)

GOLD
MARKETS
[justify]Gold rose 0.4 % to $1,397.96 traded at $1,396.30 in Asia . Prices are down 5.4 % in May . Gold August rose 0.2 % to $1,394.90. Silver was little changed at $22.495, set for a fourth monthly drop.[/justify]
FACTORS

1. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, expanded yesterday for the first time since May 9,
2. Holdings in ETP (June 2011 Low) fell 5.4 % in May.
3. Shanghai Gold cash contract volume at 19,599 kg. from 15,641 kg on May 28.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
[justify] USD was at 101.04 JPY having risen 3.7 % since the end of April. The JPY was little changed at 130.94 per EUR after earlier gaining as much as 0.4 %. EUR fell 0.1 % to $1.2959, /USD trimming its monthly slide to 1.6 %. USD Index slid 0.2 % to 83.519.[/justify]
FACTORS

1. JP Morgan Chase & Co.'s G-7 Volatility Index, rose to 10.14 %, (Feb. 27 high).
2. Japanese investors sold a net of $11 Bln of foreign bonds in the week ended May 24.
3. JPY 10-year bond yields at a 1-year high of 1 % last week from 0.55 % on April 3.
4. Central bank will increase currency sales to combat a "significantly over-valued" NZD.
5. CAD Advances as central bank signals rate hikes, but leaves rates unchanged.
6. EU Warns of 'Huge' Uncertainty If CFTC Won't Delay Swaps Rule.
7. AUD gains as building approvals grew more than estimated.

COPPER
MARKETS
3-Month Copper dropped 0.5 % to $7,226. Relative strength index at 47.
FACTORS

1. Copper stockpiles rising to a 10 year high.
2. Steel Rebar futures traded near the lowest level in 8 months.
3. Freeport-McMoRan has restarted some operations at its Grasberg Mine in Indonesia .

OIL
MARKETS
[justify]WTI July at $93.09 down 4 cents, . The volume of all futures traded was 42 % below the 100-day average. WTI July fell $1.88 to $93.13 yesterday, the lowest close since May 1. Brent July up 26 cents at $102.69. Brent at a premium of $9.60 to WTI.[/justify]
FACTORS

1. U.S. stockpiles rose the most in a month (4.4 million Barrels May-24 week).

"Oil may stay around $100 in the short-term", Karim Djoudi, the Algerian finance minister.

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
[justify]INR little changed at 56.4950. 1-month volatility rises 19 bps to 9.4175%; this year's average 9.0131%. NDF 1-month up 0.3% to 56.85, 12-month rose 0.3% to 59.91. 10 Year Benchmark at 7.242%. Overnight Inter-bank raised 70 BP to 7.30%[/justify]
FACTORS

1. Technical: Support at 56.7112, 56.9175, 57.2813; resistance at 56.3474, 56.1899, 55.8261. USD's 14-day is at 81.5, above overbought threshold. USD/INR upper Bollinger band is at 56.7529.
2. RBI to clarify licensing for new banks on June 3.
3. Standard Chartered Bank cuts FY14 GDP growth to 5.5% from 6.0%.

GOLD
MARKETS
[justify]Gold gained 0.7 % to $1,397.88 and was trading at $1,395.60 in Asia. Prices fell 6 % last month, including a 1.9 % decline on May 31. Gold August was flat at $1,394.30. Silver climbed 1.1 % to reach $22.395.[/justify]
FACTORS

1. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, unchanged for a 2nd day on May 31.
2. USD Index, dropped 0.2 %.
3. Funds raised their net- longs by 35 % to 48,096 Contracts Week of May 28.
4. Assets in silver-backed ETPs fell by 2.4 % in May, (2 years high)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
[justify]The euro flat at $1.3012 . It fell 1.3 % in May . Euro gained 0.2 % to 130.87 yen. The USD added 0.1 % to 100.58 yen. AUD advanced 0.6 % to 96.28 U.S. cents, after dropping to 95.28 on May 29, the lowest since October 2011.[/justify]
FACTORS

1. EU Manufacturing contracted for a 22nd month
2. Opinion: ECB will hold its interest rate at a record low of 0.5 % .
3. FORECAST: EU PMI at 47.8 in May.
4. China's non-manufacturing PMI was at 54.3 in May from 54.5 (April).
5. Yen shorts increase to 99,769, versus 95,186 a week earlier.
6. Draghi Sees Signs of Stabilization in 'Challenging' Economy.
7. ECB's Coeure Says BOJ Policy Not Yet Negative for Global Economy.

COPPER
MARKETS
[justify]Copper 3 months gained up 1 % to $7,380 . Prices advanced in May for the first time in four months, gaining 3.6 %. Copper July rose 1.2 % to $3.3315 a pound[/justify]
FACTORS

1. China President Xi Jinping said expansion is on a "more stable footing,".
2. China PMI at 50.8 in May from 50.6 in April, after a separate gauge last week signaled a contraction.
3. China's State Reserve Bureau bought about 30,000 tons of nickel, 1/6th of stocks in LME.
4. Copper stocks fell to 608,450 tons on May 31.

OIL
MARKETS
[justify]Brent, fell 0.6 % to $99.75 , before rising again to 100. Brent July at $100.32 down 7 cents. Prices slid 2.2 % last week and 1.9 % in May. WTI July at $91.94 down 3 cents. Prices dropped 2.3 % last week and 1.6 % in May. Brent was at a premium of $8.38 to WTI .[/justify]
FACTORS

1. OPEC kept its production target unchanged( 30 million barrels a day).
2. US: Stocks rose to 398 million barrels in the week ended May 24, the most since 1931.
3. U.S. crude output rose 34,000 barrels to 7.29 million a day in the week ended May 24.

Hedge fund cut longs on Crude by 6.2 % (May 28).

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
[justify]INR rose 0.1 % to 56.3590 . It advanced 0.6 % yesterday, the biggest gain since April 30. 1-month volatility fell 11 bp to 8.85 %. 3-month forwards at 57.32 Vs. 57.31. 3- Month NDF were at 57.26 vs. 57.32.[/justify]
FACTORS

1. RBI curbs on gold imports, (Gold is 80 % of the nation's current-account deficit.)
2. Fed Dallas President Fisher called for a reduction in the Fed's $85 Bln.QE3
3. USD index declined.

GOLD
MARKETS
[justify]Gold rose 0.6 % to $1,408.20 and was at $1,407.30 in Asia . Prices fell 0.9 % yesterday. Gold August was up 0.6 % to $1,406. It had fallen 1 % yesterday. Cash silver advanced 0.3 % at $22.62 . Gold dropped 16 % in 2013.[/justify]
FACTORS

1. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust fell to 1,010.45 MT down for the first time in a week.
2. India, the world's biggest consumer, widened curbs on imports.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
[justify]USD was flat at 99.84 JPY . It had risen 0.5 % yesterday. The euro flat at $1.3087 from $1.3081. EUR lost 0.1 % to trade at 130.66 vs. the JPY. The USD Index, was flat at 82.708. 3-month volatility of the G7 even currencies was near the highest in more than 3 months. The measure was at 10.12 % after touching 10.24 % yesterday, the highest since Feb. 26.[/justify]
FACTORS

1. Kansas Fed President Esther urged a reduction in the QE3
2. JAPAN: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe vowed that his nation will end deflation with policies.
3. FORECAST: U.S. Jobs rose by 46,000 jobs to 165,000 in May vs. April
4. USD Set to Rise 10% as Deutsche Bank Cites Yield
5. AUSTRALIA: Central bank rate at 2.75% (lowest ever) hints at rate cuts
6. CAD Declines as Wider Trade Deficit Undercuts Growth
7. US Trade deficit up 8.5 % to $40.3 Bln. from $37.1 Bln in March
8. UK: Increase in PMI of construction, retail sales also improved.

COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3 months fell 0.6 % to $7,410. Copper July lost 0.2 % at $3.3615 a pound. Copper October up 0.4 % to $8,697 a ton.
FACTORS

1. Freeport's output in Indonesia is shut for a government probe.
2. Closing the mine for the entire period would remove about 140,000 tons of supply.

OIL
MARKETS
[justify]WTI July delivery was up 67 cents to $93.98. The volume of all futures traded was 39 % below the 100-day average. Prices slid 14 cents to $93.31 yesterday. Brent July was up 25 cents, , to $103.49. Brent at a premium of $9.60 to WTI.[/justify]
FACTORS

FOREX WARS 2013: USD up 6.3 % ,EUR up 5.1 %, JPY falls 8.9 %, AUD falls 7.4 %.

QUOTE: In prosperity our friends know us; in adversity we know our friends.

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forumdisplay.php?37-DGCX-Academy-Analyses

MARKET PULSE

1. US: FORECAST Factory orders up by the most in 3 months.(2% in May. vs 1% Apr)
2. US: Private Jobs up 160,000 June vs. 135,000 in May
3. US: FORECAST: Joblessness at 7.5 % June vs. 7.6 % May.
4. U.S PMI 3-month high of 50.9 from 49 in May
5. EURO-ZONE: ECB Meeting: FORECAST Central Bank rate at 0.5 %.
6. FX: USD up 6.3 % 2013 followed by EUR up 5.1 %, JPY falls 8.9 % AUD falls 7.4 %.
7. AUSTRALIA: RBA benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75 %
8. GOLD: Short up 5 % to 77,027 (Jun 25, the 2nd highest).
9. GOLD: Spot volumes in Shanghai Gold 3 times last year's daily average.
10. GOLD: Fell 23 % in Q2, 2013.
11. GOLD: SPDR Gold Trust, assets fell to 968.3 MT (Feb 2009 low)
12. CHINA: FORECAST: GDP growth may fall to 7.5 % Q2 2013
13. CHINA: Bank stocks sink to lows on inter-bank funding crisis

COMMODITIES

1. LME Woos China's Traders as Shanghai Vies for Global Stake
2. Gold Positions Slump as $54 Bln. Erased From Funds
3. Gold Swings After Tumbling to Lowest Since 2010 as Silver Drops
4. WTI Trades Near 2-Week Low on Concern China Recovery May Slow
5. Gold Miner Writedowns at $17 Bln after Newcrest Fallout
6. Hedge Fund Boost Bullish Oil Bets

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
[justify]INR up 0.4 % to 59.275. INR touched 58.9650 yesterday, past 59 for the 1st time since June 19. 1-month volatility rose 25 bp to 12.34 %. 3-month forwards rose 0.1 % to 60.28 . 3-month NDF flat at 60.43.[/justify]
FACTORS

1. INR rebounded 2.5 % from a record low touched June 26
2. Global funds bought $188 million of stocks on June 28, ending 13 days of outflows.
3. Technical: INR could rally toward 58.2250 after strengthening beyond 59.0894

GOLD
MARKETS
[justify]Gold up 0.7 % to $1,260.90 and was trading at $1,257.64 in Asia . Prices fell to $1,180.50 on June 28, the lowest since August 2010, before rising 2.8 % and 1.5 % in two days. Gold August flat at $1,257.40. Silver gained 0.3 % to $19.69 .[/justify]
FACTORS

1. Shorts up 5 % to 77,027 (Jun 25, 2nd highest). Longs reduced by 20 % (Jun 2007 low)
2. Spot volumes in Shanghai Gold 3 times last year's daily average.
3. Gold plunged 23 % in Q2 , 2013
4. SPDR Gold Trust, assets fell to 968.3 MT ( Feb 2009 low)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
[justify]EURUSD was at $1.3058 vs. $1.3064 . It touched $1.2985 on June 26. USDJPY was at 99.71 vs. 99.66 . It had touched 99.86 (June 5 high). EURJPY was at 130.21 vs. 130.27. USDAUD lost 0.7 % and was at 91.78. EURUSD was 0.6 % away from the monthly low.[/justify]
FACTORS

1. US: FORECAST Factory orders up to a 3 M high (2% in May. vs 1% Apr)
2. US: Private Jobs up 160,000 June vs. 135,000 in May
3. US: FORECAST: Joblessness at 7.5 % June vs. 7.6 % May.
4. U.S PMI 3-month high of 50.9 from 49 in May
5. EURO-ZONE: ECB Meeting: FORECAST Central Bank rate at 0.5 %.
6. FX: USD up 6.3 % 2013 followed by EUR up 5.1 %, JPY falls 8.9 % AUD falls 7.4 %.
7. AUSTRALIA: RBA benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75 %

COPPER
MARKETS
[justify] Copper 3 months fell 0.9 % to $6,919 a MT trading at $6,937.75 in Asia . Copper September fell 0.4 % to $3.146 a pound.[/justify]
FACTORS

1. CHINA: FORECAST: GDP growth may fall to 7.5 % Q2 2013
2. CHINA: Bank stocks sink to lows on interbank funding crisis

OIL
MARKETS
[justify]WTI August at $97.97, down 2 cents. . The volume of all futures traded was 54 % below the 100-day average. WTI rose $1.43 to $97.99 yesterday ( June 19 High) . Brent August up 11 cents to $103.11. Brent was at a premium of $5.14 to WTI. The spread was $5.01 yesterday (Jan 2013 Low)[/justify]
FACTORS

1. U.S. crude stockpiles shrank for the first time in a month (down 2.63 mln barrels).
2. Unrest in Egypt may spread and disrupt Middle East oil supplies.
3. U.S. accounted for 21 % of global oil demand last year.

Egypt's army gave President Mursi 48 hours to respond to the demands of protesters.

OFF VITAMINS: US Services, Jobs, Factories gain, Will Stimulus stop?

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum...ademy-Analyses

QUOTE: Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity.

MARKET PULSE
• U.S. : Factory orders rose in may
• US: ISM non-manufacturing index up 54 June vs. 53.7 in May
• U.S. : FORECAST : Service Sector rose the fastest pace since March.
• US: New York Fed President "economic growth will probably quicken in 2014"
• EURO -ZONE: ECB Says Debt Crisis Weighed on Role of Euro in Global Markets
• GOLD: Global ETP holdings have contracted 22 % in 2013
• CRUDE: Middle East accounted for 33 % of global crude output last year

COMMODITIES
• Gold Swings as Investors Weigh Physical Demand Against Stimulus
• S&P GSCI Commodities Index Gains for Third Day as Oil Rallies
• Gold at About $1,200 a 'Good Entry Point,' Coutts' Dugan Says
• Copper Futures Rise as Inventories Fall, Spread Spot Price Grows
• WTI Surges Above $100 on Egypt Unrest, U.S. Stockpile Decline

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR fell 0.5 % to 59.9350 . It fell to a lifetime low of 60.7650 on June 26. 1-month volatility fell 3 bp, to 12.22 %. 3-month forwards fell 0.6 % to 60.94. 3-month NDF fell 0.6 % to 61.11.
FACTORS
• US: jobless claims and payrolls data due this week
• Global Funds sold $7.1 Bln of assets in June
• RBI :draft guidelines on banks risk management for customers with unhedged FX exposure
• INDIA: FM: $75 Bln to fund the current account deficit by March 2014

GOLD
MARKETS
Gold was at $1,245.10 vs. $1,243.50 yesterday, after rising and falling at least 0.2 %. Gold August was flat at $1,245 after falling 1 %. Silver rose 0.4 % to $19.4811 after falling 1.2 % yesterday
FACTORS
• Gold fell 0.7 % yesterday as the USD strengthened.
• U.S. : Factory orders rose in may
• Global ETP holdings have contracted 22 % in 2013


FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD Index, flat at 83.581 after rising to 83.622 ( May 30 High) . EUR-USD fell 0.1 % to $1.2972 vs yesterday, when it saw a low of $1.2964 (June 3 Low) . USD-JPY was flat at 100.66 after earlier rising to 100.86. EUR-JPY at 130.58 vs. 130.61 with a high of 131.12. AUD fell to 90.94 U.S. cents, the lowest since September 2010, before trading at 91.10, down 0.4 % from yesterday.
FACTORS
• U.S. : FORECAST : Service Sector rose the fastest pace since March.
• AUSTRALIA: RBA: Transition from a resource boom could be aided by a weaker currency
• US: ISM non-manufacturing index up 54 June vs. 53.7 in May
• New York Fed President W. C. Dudley "economic growth will probably quicken in 2014"
• ECB Says Debt Crisis Weighed on Role of Euro in Global Markets
COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3 months up 1 % to $6,976 a MT trading at $6,944.75 in Asia . It rose to $6,982 yesterday, ( June 19 High). Copper October flat at $8,167 a ton. Copper September up 0.3 % to $3.151 a pound.
FACTORS
• Inventories declined for a 6th day to 659,200 tons yesterday
• Shanghai inventories fell for the 1st time in 5 weeks to 182,493 tons last week.
• Copper Cash at a premium of $18 a ton to the 3-month contract
OIL
MARKETS
WTI August up $2.58, or 2.6 %, to $102.18. The volume of all futures traded was almost seven times the 100-day average. The contract increased $1.61, or 1.6 %, to $99.60 yesterday, the highest close since May 2012. Brent August up $1.61, or 1.6 %, to $105.61. Brent was at a premium of $3.16 to WTI
FACTORS
• Egypt's political showdown escalated
• U.S. stockpiles shrank the most this year.
• U.S. crude inventories fell by 9.4 million barrels last week, American Petroleum Institute
• The Middle East accounted for 33 % of global crude output last year

RISK RETURNS: Egypt Ouster, China Manufacturing, Portugal Yields, Greece Default
QUOTE: Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion

DGCX Academy Analyses
MARKET PULSE
EURO-ZONE: ECB President Draghi:" Monetary policy will stay accommodative."
EURO -ZONE: Portugal's 10Y yield above 8% after Foreign and Finance Minister resigned.
EURO -ZONE: Portuguese Prime Minister Passos Coelho "trying to hold his government together"
EGYPT: Army removed Mohamed Mursi from power
EGYPT: Defense Minister Abdelfatah al-Seesi drew cheers from thousands in Cairo's Tahrir Square
EGYPT: U.S. President Obama said he's "deeply concerned"
EGYPT: U.S. President Obama urged the Egyptian military to return to an elected civilian government
CHINA: may not grow at 7.5 %": Fan Jianping, Chief Economist State Information Cente
CHINA: 2 gauges of s manufacturing fell in June
US: Forecast: nonfarm payrolls up 165,000 in June
CANADA: CAD Rises from 21-Month Low as Oil Surges above $100
INDIA: Unilever to bring inflow of 5.4$ Bln ( raise stake from 52.5% to 75%)
UK: BOE Governor Mike Carney seen resisting QE

COMMODITIES
Gold Sales Slump at Australia's Perth Mint as Rout Deters Buyers
WTI Trades Near 14-Month High as Supply Drops Amid Egypt Unrest
Copper Falls on China Slowdown Concern Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data
World Copper Reserves Seen Lasting 100 Years and Far From Peak 1

INDIAN INR

MARKETS
INR rose 0.3 % to 60.0575 . 1-month volatility, rose 25 bp to 13.17 %. Forwards rose 0.5 % to
60.99 . 3-month NDF contracts gained 0.4 % to 61.09.
FACTORS
• Unilever Plc will bring in capital to complete a $5.4 Bln open offer
• Unilever open offer to raise its stake in Hindustan Unilever to 75 % from 52.5% approved
GOLD
MARKETS
Gold rose 0.4 % to $1,258.35. Prices rose 0.8 % yesterday . Prices slumped to $1,180.50 last week (Aug 2010 low) . Gold August rose 0.1 % to $1,253.60, extending yesterday's 0.7 % gain. Silver rose and fell 0.5 %, before trading 0.5 % lower at $19.6784 .
FACTORS
• 2 ministers in Portugal resigned over the handling of government debt
• Egypt's army ousted President Mohamed Mursi in what he called a coup.
• Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust were unchanged yesterday
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
EUR fell 0.1 % to $1.2999 as vs. $1.3009 and saw a low of $1.2923 (May 29 low) . EUR declined 0.1 % to 129.81 JPY after yesterday dropping 0.5 % to 129.97. JPY was at 99.85, 0.1 % higher than yesterday, when it rose 0.7 % to 99.91. USD Index flat at 83.252. It dropped 0.4 % yesterday after earlier touching 83.717, the most since May 29. AUD up 0.4 % to 91.26 U.S. cents after yesterday touching 90.37 (Sep 2010 low) .
FACTORS
• European Central Bank meets today
• ECB President Draghi:" Monetary policy will stay accommodating."
• Portugal's 10Y yield above 8% after Foreign and Finance Minister resigned.
• Portuguese Prime Minister Passos Coelho "trying to hold his government together"
• US: Forecast: Nonfarm payrolls up 165,000 in June
• CAD Rises From 21-Month Low as Oil Surges Above $100
• BOE Governor Mike Carney seen resisting QE

COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3 months fell 0.7 % to $6,947 a MT . It rose to $7,005 yesterday (June 19 high). Copper declined 7.7 % in June. Copper October fell 0.9 % to $8,180 a ton. Copper September fell 0.7 % to $3.1525 a pound.
FACTORS
• CHINA: may not grow at 7.5 %": Fan Jianping, Chief Economist State Information Cente
• CHINA: 2 gauges of s manufacturing fell in June
OIL
MARKETS
WTI August at $101.37 up 13 cents. The volume of all futures traded was 48 % below the 100-day average. WTI rose $1.64, or 1.7 %, to $101.24 yesterday (May 3, 2012 high) . Brent August fell 17 cents $105.59. Brent was at a premium of $4.22 to WTI
FACTORS
• Egypt's army forced Mohamed Mursi from power
• Egypt's turmoil May disrupt oil via Suez Canal / Oil pipeline
• Defense Minister Abdelfatah al-Seesi drew cheers from thousands in Cairo's Tahrir Square
• U.S. President Obama said he's "deeply concerned" about Egypt
• U.S. President Obama urged the Egyptian military to return to an elected civilian government
• U.S. gasoline inventories slid by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended June 28
• Refineries operated at 92.2 % of capacity last week, up 2 % from the prior period

STIMULUS BLUES: US Jobs zoom: Pundits say Gold at 1,150, Indian Rupee lowest ever

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum...ademy-Analyses

QUOTE:Hope is much like a cat in the Dark - you only know it's there by the reflection of its eyes - which means there is Light nearby.
MARKET PULSE
• US. payrolls rose by 195,000 for a 2nd month in June, vs. 165,000 forecast.
• US USD Index rose to the highest level since July 2010.
• US: Jobless rate held at 7.6 %, near a four-year low
• US FED:. Bought $2.3 trillion of assets from 2008 to 2011 in the QE1 and QE2
• GOLD: Societe Generale, Goldman Sachs, and Credit Suisse: Gold will reach $1,150
• INDIA: INR sees a LIFETIME low of 61.1550
• EURO ZONE: FORECAST : IIP in Germany fell 0.5 % in May vs. gain of 1.8 %. April
• JAPAN: current account surplus narrowed: May was at $5.3 Bln
• EGYPT: BP Plc withdrew workers as supporters and opponents clash.

COMMODITIES
• Tanaka's Gold Sales May Exceed Buying for First Time in 9 Years
• Gold Bear-Market History Signals Second-Half Hope for Faithful
• Copper in London Climbs, Reversing Earlier Decline



INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR fell 1.5 % to 61.1475. It saw low of 61.1550, passing the previous record of 60.7650 on June 26. 1-month volatility, up 55 bp to 13.35 % and touched 13.48 %, the highest level since June last year. 3-month forwards rose 0.5 % to 61.10 per USD. 3M NDF dropped 0.3 % to 61.57.
FACTORS
• U.S. payrolls rose by 195,000 for a 2nd month in June, vs. 165,000 forecast.
• USD Index, rose to the highest level since July 2010.
• Global funds sold $7.6 Bln in Debt since May
• US : Jobless rate held at 7.6 %, near a four-year low.

GOLD
MARKETS
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,219.31 after a 2% decline on Friday. Gold slid 23 % Q2 2013
FACTORS
• Societe Generale SA: Gold will average $1,150 in 2014.
• Goldman Sachs : Gold will l reach $1,050 by the end of 2014
• Credit Suisse Group AG : Gold will reach $1,150 in about 12 months.
• Gold ETF Assets declined 622.3 MT as of July 5 in 2013

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD Index, touched 84.588, the highest since July 2010, before trading at 84.538 in Asia 0.1 % above its New York close when it jumped 1.5 %. USD flat at 101.20 yen with a high of 101.53, (May 30.) EUR slid 0.1 % to $1.2816, having declined 1.4 % in the previous 2 sessions. The euro slid 0.1 % to 129.70 yen.
FACTORS
• Bernanke said "begin slowing bond purchases this year"
• The euro held a 2-day decline before ECB President Draghi speaks in Brussels today .
• Germany releases data on industrial production.
• US FED:. Bought $2.3 trillion of assets from 2008 to 2011 in the QE1 and QE2
• EURO ZONE : FORECAST: IIP in Germany fell 0.5 % in May vs. gain of 1.8 %. April
• Japan's current account surplus narrowed : May surplus at $5.3 Bln

COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3-Months 0.2 % higher at $6,800 a ton. Industrial metals rebounded after slumping by the most in 2 months Copper October fell 0.7 % to $7,962 a ton. Copper September gained 0.4 % to $3.078 per pound.
FACTORS
• Stockpiles in China fell raised hope that demand will increase.

OIL
MARKETS
WTI August rose 90 cents to $104.12 and was trading at $103.68 in Asia . The volume of all futures traded was almost double the 100-day average. WTI rose $1.98, or 2 %, to $103.22 on July 5, the highest settlement since May 2012. Prices increased 6.9 % last week. Brent August up as 32 cents, or 0.3 %, to $108.04. Brent was at a premium of $4.17 to WTI
FACTORS
• Protests in Egypt fanned concern that Middle East oil supply may be disrupted.
• BP Plc withdrew workers from Egypt as supporters and opponents rallied.
• Interim leader Adly Mansour sought to pull together a government to restore order
• The 14-day relative strength index is above 73 today, the highest since Jan. 30.

RUPEE RUMBLE: Indian Central Bank and Regulators step in to stop the currency slide

QUOTE: Hope is faith holding out its hand in the dark.

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum...ademy-Analyses

MARKET PULSE

1. INDIA: Central Bank barred banks from trading in exchange F&O (effective immediately)
2. INDIA: SEBI will raise margin requirements and curtail open positions from July 11.
3. INDIA: Turnover in F&O in INR climbed 47 % to a daily average of $6.4 Bln
4. INDIA: Indian companies dollar debt repayments at $20 Bln in 2014
5. US: Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks /FOMC minutes for June (Tomorrow)
6. US Net longs on USD Index at 15,672 vs. 12,281 in the previous week
7. JAPAN: BoJ to increase money supply from 60 trillion ($593 Bln) to 70 trillion yen
8. JAPAN: Gold ETF expanded 10 % this year by volume.
9. CHINA: Consumer price index rose 2.7 % in June YoY Vs 2.5 % forecast
10. EURO ZONE : ECB agreed to release $3.9 Bln of aid for Greece
11. EGYPT: Army shot dead at least 51 supporters of deposed President d Mursi.

COMMODITIES

1. Gold Bulls Defy Price Slump as Paulson Loss Widens:
2. Spot Gold Extends Advance as Silver Climbs With Platinum
3. WTI Fluctuates Amid Indication Price Gains Were Unsustainable
4. Copper in Shanghai Gains 0.5% to 48,860 Yuan a Ton
5. Crude Stockpiles Expected to Drop to Lowest Level Since February

INDIAN INR

MARKETS

[justify]INR advanced 0.9 % to 60.0950 , the biggest gain since June 28,. It touched a high of 59.715, the strongest level since July 2. 1-month volatility fell 14 bp 13.42 %.3-month forwards rose 1.9 % to 60.63 .3-Month NDF rose 1.4 % to 61.1.[/justify]

FACTORS

1. Central Bank barred banks from trading in exchange F&O ( effective immediately)
2. SEBI will raise margin requirements and curtail open positions from July 11.
3. Commonwealth Bank is looking to sell the Indian currency on bouts of strength
4. Turnover in F&O i climbed 47 % to a daily average of $6.4 Bln
5. RBI : Global Funds can only use INR F&O to protect their shares and debt.
6. RBI and state-owned Oil Cos. are discussing ways to manage USD exposures
7. Indian companies dollar debt repayments at $20 Bln in 2014

GOLD

MARKETS

Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,258.20 in Asian Hours

FACTORS

1. Japan's Gold ETF expanded 10 % this year by volume.
2. Global ETF in Gold are down 24 % this year to 1,993.76 MT
3. JAPAN FORECAST: Inflation at 3 % for Q2 2013
4. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to Credit Suisse Group AG cut their price forecasts

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

[justify]USD was little changed at $1.2868 per euro .USD rose 0.2 % to 101.15 yen after touching 101.53 yesterday, the strongest since May 30. The yen lost 0.2 % to 130.16 per euro after falling 0.1 % yesterday. USD Index, rose 0.1 % to 84.244 after touching 84.588 yesterday, the highest since July 2010. The AUD lost 0.1 % to 91.27 U.S. cents. It reached 90.37 on July 3, the lowest since September 2010.[/justify]

FACTORS

1. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks tomorrow as well as the FOMC minutes for June
2. Net longs on USD Index at 15,672 vs. 12,281 in the previous week
3. BoJ to increase money supply from 60 trillion yen ($593 Bln) to 70 trillion yen per year.
4. CHINA : consumer price index rose 2.7 % in June YoY Vs 2.5 % forecast
5. GBP Rises From Near 4-Month Low on a forecast that industrial growth may be positive in June

COPPER

MARKETS

Copper rose 0.4 % to $6,855.25 a MT . Relative strength index at 44.

MARKETS

1. China decline in factory-gate prices extended its longest losing streak in a decade
2. ECB agreed to release 3 Bln euros ($3.9 Bln) of aid for Greece

OIL

MARKETS

[justify] WTI August delivery was at $103.10 down 4 cents. The volume of all futures traded was 36 % below the 100-day average. WTI slid 8 cents yesterday after closing at $103.22 on July 5, the highest since May 2, 2012. Prices increased 6.9 % last week, the most since February 2011. Brent August down 31 cents at $107.12. Brent at a premium of $4.02 to WTI contracts.[/justify]

MARKETS

1. U.S. crude inventories are forecast to fall for a 2nd week
2. The RSI showed prices have advanced too quickly.
3. FORECAST : Crude stockpiles dropped by 3.1 million barrels last week
4. Egypt's army shot dead at least 51 supporters of deposed President d Mursi.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc temporarily relocated some workers and dependent from Egypt

CONTINENTAL CONCERNS: Italy BBB-10Y 3.1%, UK GBP 3Y Low, France Industries reverse

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forumdisplay.php?37-DGCX-Academy-Analyses

QUOTE: Hope never abandons you, you abandon it.

MARKET PULSE

1. EZ: ECB Joerg Asmussen " interest rates holding at record lows beyond 12 months "
2. EZ: S&P's downgraded Italy to 'BBB' on weakening economic prospects.
3. EZ: FORECAST IIP in France fell 0.8 % in May vs 2.2% increase in June
4. EZ: Italy's 10-year yield rose 3 bp, , to 4.41 % yesterday.
5. UK: Manufacturing unexpectedly shrank in May GBP at 3Y low
6. IMF: Global growth at 3.1 % vs. 3.3 % estimated in April.
7. CHINA: Exports 3.1% fell in June ( YoY ) vs. 3.7% growth forecast.

COMMODITIES

1. Asian Stocks Pare Gains as Aussie Declines With Metals on China
2. Copper Drops After China Exports, Imports Fall Unexpectedly
3. Copper Triangle Break Means Further 10% Drop: Technical Analysis

INDIAN INR

MARKETS

[justify]INR flat vs. yesterday at 60.1450 . 1-month volatility, , fell 16 bp to 13.06 %. . 3-month forwards advanced 0.2 % to 61.15 vs a 0.9 % rise yesterday, the most this month, after touching an all-time low of 62.09 on July 8. 3-Month NDF rose 0.3 % to 61.24.[/justify]

FACTORS

1. US : FOMC minutes and Fed chairman Bernanke's speech today.
2. RBI : Oil companies will purchase USD only from the State Bank of India.
3. Global funds were net buyers of INR debt on July 8 for the first time in 14 days,
4. Global funds have cut holdings of local bonds by $7.9 Bln since May 22.

GOLD

MARKETS

[justify]Gold lost 0.6 % to 1,244.03 and was trading at $1,247.93 in Asia after rising 2.3 % in the past 2 days. Gold August was flat at $1,246 . Prices slumped 26 % this year, set for the biggest annual drop since 1981. Silver fell 1.4 % to $19.0352[/justify]

FACTORS

1. CHINA: Exports 3.1% fell in June YoY vs. 3.7% growth forecast.
2. GOLD : IMF - prices have developed a positive correlation with emerging market assets
3. IMF : Global growth at 3.1 % vs. 3.3 % estimated in April.
4. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, fell to 939.75 MT (Feb 2009 low)

SENSEX

MARKETS

S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.2 % to 19,485.55 in the opening hour . The Sensex has dropped 2.9 % since May 22.

FACTORS

1. State Bank of India and ICICI Bank Ltd., Rose 0.7 %.
2. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., India's largest software exporter, climbed 0.9 %.
3. INR climbed for the 2ns day after regulatory measures
4. Foreign funds sold a net $1.76 Bln of Indian shares in June. ( Augt 2011 high)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

[justify]JPY rose 0.7 % to 100.44. It touched a high of 101.53 on July 8. The JPY strengthened 0.7 % to 128.42 per euro from yesterday, after reaching 128.22, the strongest since June 28. EUR was little changed at $1.2786 from yesterday, when it dropped to $1.2755, the lowest since April 4. The USD Index was flat at 84.504 from yesterday, when it reached 84.753, the highest since July 2010. GBP fell to a 3-year low of 1.4814.[/justify]

FACTORS

1. ECB Joerg Asmussen " interest rates holding at record lows beyond 12 months "
2. S&P's downgraded Italy to 'BBB' on weakening economic prospects.
3. Manufacturing in the U.K. unexpectedly shrank in May
4. FORECAST IIP in France fell 0.8 % in May vs 2.2% increase in June
5. Italy's 10-year yield rose 3 bp, , to 4.41 % yesterday.
6. CAD rises as housing statistics exceeded analysts' estimates.

COPPER

MARKETS

3 Month Copper fell 0.4 % to $6,703 a MT. Relative strength index 38.

FACTORS

1. China's exports and imports unexpectedly declined in June
2. European Central Bank may add to stimulus while the Federal Reserve tightens policy.
3. Copper futures, down 16 % this year, may fall by next month to the lowest since mid-2010

OIL

MARKETS

[justify]WTI August up $1.26 to $104.79. The volume of all futures traded was more than double the 100-day average. WTI rose 39 cents to $103.53 yesterday, the highest close since May 2, 2012. Brent August up 31 cents, to $108.12 .Brent at a premium of $3.43 to WTI .[/justify]

FACTORS

1. U.S. crude stockpiles decrease indicate increased demand
2. Crude inventories fell by 9 million barrels last week
3. U.S. gasoline stockpiles shrank by 3.5 million barrels
4. Supplies are forecast to rise by 1 million barrels

Egypt's interim premier President Adly Mansour will begin talks on forming a cabinet

gold


http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/showt...=2345#post2345


http://pcmbrokers.org/pcmfileupload/...3522827191.gif

GIVE ME WORK: US Fed's Ben Says accommodating Policy till jobs improve, markets ZOOM

QUOTE: The sudden disappointment of a hope leaves a scar which the ultimate fulfillment of that hope never entirely removes

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum...ademy-Analyses

MARKET PULSE

1. US: Fed Bernanke "A highly accommodating policy would be needed for the foreseeable future"
2. US: FOMC minutes show need for more signs of employment before cutting QE3
3. US: USD Index down 1.5 % today.
4. US: FORECAST Jobless benefits rose to 2.96 million (June 29) vs 2.93 previous week.
5. OIL: Brent and WTI converge from $28 to $1.41
6. GOLD: Spot gold rose 2.4 % to $1,289.80
7. JAPAN : IMF upgraded growth forecast this year to 2 % from a 1.6 %

COMMODITIES

1. WTI Oil Trades Near 15-Month High as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Drop
2. Gold Heads for Best Run Since April as Bernanke Backs Stimulus

INDIAN INR

MARKETS

[justify]INR at 59.7175 after touching a high of 59.3200 earlier, the strongest level since July 2. 1-month volatility declines 39 bps to 12.5225%; this year's avg. is 9.9608%. 1-month NDFs rose 0.4% to 60.06; 12-month NDFs rose 0.4% to 63.44[/justify]

FACTORS

1. Technical: Pivot point at 59.8329; resistance at 59.4608, 59.2666, 58.7003; support at 60.0271, 60.3992, 60.9655 USD/INR's 14-day stochastics oscillator is around 58, near oversold threshold
2. Options premium declines ( 25-RR) , It rose to a high Z-score of 1.6 %,
3. JPMorgan Global FX Volatility Index, rose to 10.73 % after reaching a high o 11.96% (June 24)

GOLD

MARKETS

[justify]Spot gold rose 2.4 % to $1,289.80, the highest level since June 25, and traded at $1,284.02 in Asian hours . A 4th day of gains would be the longest winning streak since the five days to April 22. Silver climbed as much as 3.1 % to $19.9925, the highest since July 1. [/justify]

FACTORS

1. Fed's. Bernanke backed sustained stimulus for the foreseeable future.
2. FOMC released yesterday showed need for more signs of employment before cutting QE3
3. USD Index down 1.5 % today.

SENSEX

MARKETS

SENSEX a t 19697 opened up with a 400 + gap up and rallied to a 1-month high . The Sensex is up more than 2 % after hitting its highest mark since June 7. The Nifty is up 2.12 %, after marking its highest intraday level since June 10.

FACTORS

1. Fed Bernanke "A highly accommodating policy would be needed for the foreseeable future"
2. INR rallied to more than a week high
3. ITC Ltd up 2.1 % and HDFC Bank Ltd rising 3.3 %.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

[justify]EUR rose 1.1 % to $1.3116 after earlier touching $1.3207, the best since June 21. USD reached 98.27 yen, the least since June 27, before trading at 98.73 yen, 1 % lower than yesterday. JPY lost 0.1 % to 129.51 per euro. USD Index, fell 1.7 % to 82.623 after earlier touching 82.418, the lowest since June 25.[/justify]

FACTORS

1. The USD Index tumbled before a report today that may show continuing jobless claims rose.
2. AUD at 4 1/2-year low versus its New Zealand peer after unemployment climbed.
3. US: FORECAST Jobless benefits rose to 2.96 million (June 29) vs 2.93 previous weeks.
4. IMF upgraded Japan's growth forecast this year to 2 % from a 1.6 %

COPPER

MARKETS

[justify]Copper 3 months rose 2.5 % to $6,994 a MT , the highest since July 4, before trading at $6,957.75 in Asia . Copper November advanced 3.2 % to $8,178 a ton. Copper September rose 2.1 % to $3.1555 a pound.[/justify]

FACTORS

Fed Bernanke "A highly accommodating policy would be needed for the foreseeable future"

OIL

MARKETS

[justify]WTI August up 93 cents to $107.45 . The volume of all futures traded was more than double the 100-day average. WTI advanced $2.99 to $106.52 yesterday, the highest close since March 27, 2012. Brent August up 33 cents, to $108.84. Brent at a premium to $1.41 to WTI.[/justify]

FACTORS

1. U.S. stockpiles fell for a second week. (9.87 million barrels)
2. Brent's premium to WTI shrank to the narrowest since November 2010.
3. U.S. gasoline stockpiles fell by 2.6 million barrels last week,
4. Egyptian police sought Mohammed Badie, and 9 others of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Hamza Zawba, of Brotherhood's political arm" won't engage until Mursi is reinstated."

Middle-Earth 15th July:FULL CIRCLE: China GDP/Industries fall , US Stimulus to stay , Gold returns after going astray

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum...ademy-Analyses

FULL CIRCLE: China GDP/Industries fall , US Stimulus to stay , Gold returns after going astray

QUOTE: Sanity may be madness but the maddest of all is to see life as it is and not as it should be

MARKET PULSE
• INDIA: trade deficit narrowed to $12.2 Bln in June from $20.1 Bln in May
• INDIA: Gold and silver imports fell to $2.45 Bln from $8.39
• GOLD: Longs up by 4.1 % to 35,691 futures last week
• GOLD: Shorts reached 80,147 last week, the highest since 2006.
• U.S. data on retail sales today, FORECAST up 0.8%
• CHINA: GDP grew 7.5 % in the April-June period vs. 7.7 GDP in Q1
• CHINA: Industries rose 8.9 % in June (YoY) vs. 9.1 % forecast and a 9.2 % gain in May.
COMMODITIES
• WTI Trades Near 2-Day High as China Growth Boosts Demand Bets
• Hedge Funds Bought Gold in Biggest Rally Since 2011
• Gold Extends Best Week Since 2011 as Stimulus Seen Sustained
• Copper Rises as China GDP Meets Forecast
• Crude longs Jump to 2-Year High as Demand Soars


INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR fell 0.6 % to 60.0050 the biggest drop since July 8. INR fell to a record 61.2125 on July 8. 1-month volatility, rose 4 bp, to 12.51 %. 3-month onshore forwards fell 0.3 % from July 12 to 61.02 . 3-month NDF dropped 0.2 % to 61.02.
FACTORS
• Forecast: inflation accelerated, limiting the central bank's scope to adjust policy.
• Consumer price-inflation at 9.87 % Vs 9.31 %,
• Industrial output unexpectedly contracted in May
• India is considering selling sovereign bonds overseas
• India's trade deficit narrowed to $12.2 Bln in June from $20.1 Bln in May
• Gold and silver imports fell to $2.45 Bln from $8.39

GOLD
MARKETS
Gold Spot at 1289.2 $ rose 3.7$ , Gold futures gained 5.4 % to $1,277.60 last week, the most since October 2011. Gold August traded at $1,289.20
FACTORS
• Hedge funds raised bets on higher gold prices for a second week
• Longs up by 4.1 % to 35,691 futures
• Short contracts reached 80,147 last week, the highest since 2006.
• S&P GSCI Spot Index of 24 commodities added 1.7 % last week (3-month high)

SENSEX
MARKETS
SENSEX up 49 points 20,005 breaking the 20000 barrier
FACTORS
• Infosys Ltd falls 1.9 % on profit-taking after surging 10.9 % on Friday
• Banks fall ahead of the release of June Inflation Data
• HDFC Bank Ltd is down 1.3 %, while ICICI Bank Ltd is down 0.7 %.


FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD added 0.1 % to 99.27 JPY following a 0.3 % gain on July 12. It was at $1.3073 per euro after rising 0.2 % to $1.3067 at the end of last week. The euro rose 0.1 % to 129.77 JPY. Financial markets in Japan are closed today for a national holiday. AUD up 0.6 % to 90.99 U.S. cents
FACTORS
• U.S. data on retail sales today, FORECAST up 0.8%
• GBP at a 4-month low versus the euro before the BoE England releases minutes on July 17
• Longs on USD more than shorts by 80,305 on July 9
• CHINA: GDP grew 7.5 % in the April-June period vs. 7.7 GDP in Q1

COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3 months gained as much as 0.5 % to $6,985 MT . Copper November rose 1 % to $8,176 a ton. Copper September rose 0.2 % to $3.1595 a pound.
FACTORS
• Copper climbed after China's GDP met ' estimates.
• CHINA: Industries rose 8.9 % in June (YoY) vs. 9.1 % forecast and a 9.2 % gain in May.

OIL
MARKETS
WTI at $105.97 up 2 cents. The volume of all futures traded was 8 % below the 100-day average. WTI raised $1.04 to $105.95 on July 12. Brent up 3 cents at $108.84. Brent September was up 2 cents to $107.95. Brent was at a premium of $2.87 to WTI.
FACTORS
• Hedge funds increased their bullish bets on WTI to the highest level since May 2011
• Longs on WTI, rose to 281,918 last week
• CHINA: Oil consumption rose 11 % from a year ago (10 million barrels /day)
• CHINA: Accounted for 11 % of global demand last year, compared with 21 % for the U.S.

Middle-Earth 16th July:SAVING R: Indian CB Hikes Interest Rates to Make Cost of Carry of USD expensive

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum...ademy-Analyses

SAVING R: Indian CB Hikes Interest Rates to Make Cost of Carry of USD expensive
QUOTE: He who has a thousand friends has not a friend to spare, and he who has one enemy will meet him everywhere.
MARKET PULSE
• FX: Global currency volatility at 10.56 %, after dropping to 10.47 % (June 18th low) .
• US: FORECAST IIP rose 0.3 % in June vs May (Feb 2013 high)
• US: FORECAST-: Consumer Prices up 1.6 % Vs 1.4 % in May.
• EZ: German index of investor confidence rose to 40 this month from 38.5 in June
• UK: Carney to hold easing of at $566 Bln and not expand it
• INDIA: Central bank raised 2 interest rates to support the currency
• INDIA: Marginal Standing Facility at 10.25 % from 8.25 yesterday
• INDIA: OMO Sales in bonds to a tune of $2 Bln USD
• INDIA: Repo capped at 750 Bln INRs vs. Avg. 872 Bln INR 2013
• INDIA: 10Y Yield rose up 42 bp, to 8.1 %.
• INDIA: The factors will make the cost of carry to short the INR expensive

COMMODITIES
• WTI Trades Near 3-Day High as Oil Stockpiles Seen Shrinking
• Gold Drops for Third Day as Investors Await Bernanke Testimony
• Gold Longest Below 200-Day Average Since '01
• Crude Supply Drops to Five-Month Low in Survey
• U.K. Regulator Weighs Criminal Probe Into Oil-Price Fixing



INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR strengthened 0.8 % to 59.4225 touched a high of 59.1250, the strongest level since July 1. 1 year forwards premium rose 75 bp to 7.1 % . One Year forwards have risen 133 bp this year. 3-month forwards rose 0.7 % to 60.61. 3-month NDF rose 0.6 % to 60.67. The spread between the 1-month and 12-month NDFs rose to 4.04 %, the highest level since 2008.
FACTORS
• Central bank raised 2 interest rates to support the currency
• Marginal Standing Facility at 10.25 % from 8.25 yesterday
• OMO Sales in bonds to a tune of $2 Bln USD
• Repo amount capped at 750 Bln INRs vs. average 872 Bln INR 2013
• 10Y Yield rose up 42 bp, to 8.1 %,
• The factors will make the cost of carry to short the INR expensive

GOLD
MARKETS
Gold fell 0.6 % to $1,277.29 and was trading at $1,279.78 in Asia. Gold rose to $1,298.73 on July 11, the highest since June 24. Gold declined for a 3RD day . Gold August fell 0.4 % to $1,278.30 after rising 0.5 % yesterday . Silver Spot fell 1.3 % to $19.7124 and was trading at $19.7845 in Asia
FACTORS
• Shanghai's benchmark spot fell to 12,788 kg from 17,036 kg on July 12.
• Bernanke, scheduled to testify before a congressional committee tomorrow,
• SPDR Gold Trust, (ETF) at 939.07 MT unchanged for a 3rd day.

SENSEX
MARKETS
The S&P BSE Sensex slid 1.3 % to 19,771.18 at 9:30 a.m. in Mumbai, ending 3 days of gains. S&P BSE Bankex, an Index of 13 banks, sank 4.4 %, the most since July 2009.
FACTORS
• Central Bank raised 2 interest rates yesterday, stepping up efforts to aid the INR
• The INR has weakened 8.2 % against the USD in 2013
• India wholesale Inflation rose to 4.86 % (June) vs 4.7 % in May
• CPI rose to 9.87 % in June from 9.31 %, in May
• Factory output unexpectedly contracted in May
• Global funds sold $220 million of local shares on July 11 ( inflows now stand at 13.3 Bln)
• Global l funds sold $1.8 Bln of stocks in June

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
JPY traded at 99.76 Vs. 99.86 yesterday, having weakened 0.9 % in the past 2 sessions. JPY flat at 130.54 per euro from yesterday, when it lost 0.6 %. The euro rose 0.2 % to $1.3085. AUD gained 1 % to 91.84 U.S. cents.
FACTORS
• BoJ may signal extended easing in Japan this week
• AUD gained on opinion that the Central Bank will cut interest rates
• JPMorgan Chase's option index near a 1-month low.
• Global currency volatility at 10.56 %, after dropping to 10.47 % (June 18th low) .
• US: FORECAST IIP rose 0.3 % in June vs May (Feb 2013 high)
• US : FORECAST :Consumer Prices up 1.6 % Vs 1.4 % in May.
• EZ : German index of investor confidence rose to 40 this month from 38.5 in June
• UK : Carney to hold easing of at $566 Bln and not expand it


COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3 months up 0.6 % to $6,958 /MT. Copper September rose 0.2 % to $3.15 a pound. Copper November up 0.3 % to $8,151 a MT
FACTORS
• Copper rose as stockpiles on the LME had the longest run of declines since September.
• LME copper inventories declined for a seventh day to 637,850 tons
• SHFE stockpiles fell for a third week to 168,376 tons

OIL
MARKETS
WTI f August at $106.06 down 26 cents. . The volume of all futures traded was about 7 % above the 100-day average. WTI gained 37 cents yesterday to $106.32. Brent August which expires today, was down 28 cents at $108.81. Brent September slid 24 cents to $107.84. Brent was at a premium of $2.77 to WTI.
FACTORS
• U.S. crude inventories declined for a 3rd week.
• Inventories dropped by 1.88 million barrels to a 5 month low
• Goldman Sachs : Brent prices have shifted "to the upside" amid political tensions in OPEC.

Middle-Earth 17th July: QE AT WORK: US Ben's testimony to Congress, amid rise in Housing & Manufacturing

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum...ademy-Analyses

QE AT WORK: US Ben's testimony to Congress, amid rise in Housing & Manufacturing
QUOTE: History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it.
MARKET PULSE
• US: Fed's Bernanke is due to testify to Congress today.
• US: FORECAST -Housing starts climbed 5 % in June vs May to 960,000 annualized rates.
• U.S. manufacturing rose by the most in four months.
• U.S. factories, mines and utilities output up 0.3 % in June,( Feb 2013 High)
• US: Homebuilders confidence at 7 years high
• CHINA: Government-Retail sales will accelerate in the 2nd half of this year
• JAPAN: BoJ-" Central bank "period of its stimulus at 2 years and then review"
• CANADA: CB Governor Poloz will keep the benchmark interest rate at 1 %
• INDIA Proposed - 100% FDI in phone carriers, and hike from 26% in defense

COMMODITIES
• Gold Imports by India Seen Shrinking as State Curbs Boost Costs
• Gold Slump Revives Hedges Scrapped During Bull Run
• Gold Near 3-Week High as Investors Await Bernanke Testimony
• Copper Rises 0.3% to $7,016.25 a MT in London
• WTI Falls for a Second Day as Chart Shows Unsustainable Gains

INDIAN INR
MARKETS
INR gained 0.2 % to 59.2250 . It saw a monthly high of 59.0450, after the best recovery yesterday .
1-month volatility, up 4 bp to 12.53 %. The INR fell to a lifetime low of 61.2125 on July 8 . 3-month forwards fell 0.05 % to 60.46. 3-Month NDF fell 0.2 % to 60.49.
FACTORS
• RBI measures to stay in place till September or clarity on the Fed stance on Stimulus
• Short-end of the YC likely to rise to 10.25 %
• 10Y Yields rose by 52 to 8.20%, the biggest increase since January 2009.
• RBI will conduct a special 3-day repo of 250 Bln INRs at 10.25 %
• Government is planning to ease foreign-direct investment (FDI) in some industries.
• Proposed - 100% FDI in phone carriers, and hike from 26% in defense production

GOLD
MARKETS
Gold traded at $1,291.46 vs. $1,292.22 yesterday, when prices climbed to $1,295.73. Gold for August d at $1,292.60 vs. $1,292 yesterday, when futures gained 0.5 %. Silver fell for the first time in 3 days, falling 0.9 % to $19.8365
FACTORS
• Assets in Gold ETFs resumed a decline.
• U.S. data that may show housing starts increased for a second month.

SENSEX
MARKETS
The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.4 % to 19,926.55 at 9:29 a.m. in Mumbai, after falling the most since July 3 yesterday. Indian stocks rebounded from the biggest decline in 2 weeks.
FACTORS
• Government approved plans to liberalize foreign investment rules to boost growth.
• Larsen & Toubro Ltd. rose 1.3 %. ITC Ltd.-New lifetime high
• Global investors sold $29.5 million of domestic shares on July 15 (annual at $12.4 Bln)

FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
USD rose 0.3 % to 99.35 JPY after losing 0.8 % yesterday. It strengthened 0.2 % to $1.3142 per euro. EUR rose 0.1 % to 130.55 JPY. The GBP slid 0.1 % to 86.93 pence per euro after touching 87.07 yesterday, the weakest since March 13. CAD fell 0.2 % to 1.0388 per USD after gaining 0.6 % yesterday
FACTORS
• US: Fed's Bernanke is due to testify to Congress today.
• US: FORECAST -Housing starts climbed 5 % in June vs May to 960,000 annualized rates.
• BoJ :" Central bank to limit the period of its stimulus to about 2 years and then review"
• Bank of Canada Governor Poloz will keep the benchmark interest rate at 1 %


COPPER
MARKETS
Copper 3 months rose 0.7 % to $7,046 a MT , after falling to $6,967.75. Copper September rose 0.3 % to $3.1965 a pound. Copper for November up 0.9 % to $8,268 a ton.
FACTORS
• U.S. manufacturing rose by the most in four months.
• CHINA: Government-Retail sales will accelerate in the 2nd half of this year
• U.S. factories, mines and utilities output up 0.3 % in June,( Feb 2013 High)
• US: Homebuilders confidence at 7 years high

OIL
MARKETS
WTI August fell 54 cents to $105.46 . The volume of all futures traded was 28 % below the 100-day average.WTI fell 32 cents yesterday to $106, the lowest closing price since July 12. Brent September fell 34 cents to $107.80. Brent August expired at $109.40. Brent at a premium of $2.48 to WTI
FACTORS
• Technical indicators show that recent gains may be unsustainable.
• WTI's 14-day RSI closed above 70 for an 8th day yesterday
• U.S. Stockpiles fell by 2.6 million barrels last week- American Petroleum Institute
• U.S. gasoline stockpiles rose by 2.6 million barrels last week.
• EGYPT : Muslim Brotherhood's -New Cabinet "illegitimate" formed "over the blood of martyrs,"

Middle-Earth 18th July: ANTIDOTES: US 85$ B , Japan $70 B Per Month, Greek Austerity may cost jobs

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum...ademy-Analyses

ANTIDOTES: US 85$ B , Japan $70 B Per Month, Greek Austerity may cost jobs

QUOTE: The choices we make are often driven by our insecurities, than our abilities

MARKET PULSE

1. US: Fed's Bernanke said "asset purchases are by no means on a preset course and could even be expanded if economic indicators don't meet its expectations."
2. US: Fed: If inflation rose back "toward the 2 % target, the pace QE could be reduced
3. US: FORECAST Jobless benefits fell by 15,000 to 345,000
4. JAPAN: G20 finance ministers will endorse the BoJ easing
5. JAPAN: BOJ doubled monthly bond purchases to $70 bln +
6. JAPAN: US Fed: Japan's easing isn't an attempt to manipulate its exchange rate.
7. EZ : Greek lawmakers approved austerity measures that clear the next batch of loans.
8. EZ : The Greek bill puts thousands of state workers on notice for possible dismissal.
9. EZ: Greece's passage of the austerity bill may halt a decline in the euro in the near term
10. SENSEX: up 2.7 % this year,vs a 9.6 % drop in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
11. SENSEX: trades at 13.4 PE higher than Brazil, Russia and China.

COMMODITIES

1. WTI Oil Trades Near 1-Week High as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Drop
2. Gold Trades Little Changed as Investors Weigh Bernanke Comments
3. Currency to Oil Rates Targeted for Tougher Rules After Libor
4. Copper Swings Between Gains, Losses on Bernanke Testimony, China

INDIAN INR

MARKETS

INR declined 0.7 % to 59.7680 . 1-month volatility, fell 11 BP, to 12.41 %. 3-month forwards fell 0.4 % to 60.96. 3-Month NDF slid 0.5 % to 61.02. 10Y Yield at 7 months high

FACTORS

1. USD Index, , rose for a 2nd day.
2. RBI, rejected all bids at a T-bills sale.
3. Fed's Bernanke said "asset purchases are by no means on a preset course and could even be expanded if economic indicators don't meet its expectations."

GOLD

MARKETS

[justify]Gold traded at $1,276.54 vs $1,276.11 when prices retreated 1.3 %, the most since July 5. Gold August traded at $1,277.20 vs $1,278.80 yesterday, when futures slid 1 %. Silver gained 0.3 % to $19.3984 after a 3.4 % drop yesterday, the most since June 26.[/justify]

FACTORS

1. Demand in India and China, , is expected to exceed last year's levels: World Gold Council.
2. SPDR Gold Trust, fell to 936.07 MT ( Feb 2009 low)

SENSEX

MARKETS

S&P BSE Sensex added 48 pts to 19,997 after falling the most since July 3 day before yesterday

FACTORS

1. HUL rose 9.9 %, pacing a rally among consumer stocks.
2. Funds are shifting to low-debt consumer stocks from sectors with higher leverage
3. SENSEX up 2.7 % this year,vs a 9.6 % drop in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.
4. SENSEX trades at 13.4 PE higher than Brazil, Russia and China.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

[justify]JPY fell 0.5 % to 100.11 per USD from yesterday, when it lost 0.5 %. The USD advanced 0.2 % to $1.3095 per euro. EUR rose 0.3 % to 131.09 JPY after touching 131.36 yesterday, the strongest since June 5.[/justify]

FACTORS

1. G20 finance ministers will endorse the BoJ easing
2. Greek lawmakers approved austerity measures that clear the next batch of loans.
3. BOJ doubled monthly bond purchases to $70 bln +
4. JAPAN: US Fed: Japan's easing isn't an attempt to manipulate its exchange rate.
5. Fed: If inflation rose back "toward the 2 % target, the pace QE could be reduced
6. US: FORECAST Jobless benefits fell by 15,000 to 345,000
7. The Greek bill puts thousands of state workers on notice for possible dismissal,
8. Greece's passage of the austerity bill may halt a decline in the euro in the near term

COPPER

MARKETS

Copper 3 months flat at $6,882.75 after trading between a 0.4 % gain and 0.4 % loss. Copper September lost 0.3 % to $3.1185 a pound. Copper November declined 0.9 % to $8,054 a ton.

FACTORS

1. IMF: China's economic growth this year may trail forecast.

OIL

MARKETS

[justify]WTI August delivery at $106.36 down 12 cents. The volume of all futures traded was 14 % below the 100-day average. The contract climbed 48 cents to $106.48 yesterday, the highest close since July 10. Brent September slid 11 cents to $108.50. Brent at a premium of $2.36 to WTI .[/justify]

FACTORS

1. U.S. inventories dropped to the lowest level since January.
2. Stockpiles fell by 6.9 million barrels to 367 million: Energy Information Administration
3. Supplies shrank for a third week, the longest run of declines this year.
4. Plants operated at an average 92.8 % of capacity last week, the highest rate in a year,

Saudi Arabia, shipped 7.79 million barrels/ day in May, (June 2012 High)

nzd jpy

http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum...?10-Currencies
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Middle-Earth 12th August: GDP: Japan 2.6% Q2 vs 3.8% Q1 , Singapore up 15.5% , Germany est. 0.75%


http://pcm-fx.com/englishforum/forum.php

GDP: Japan 2.6% Q2 vs 3.8% Q1 , Singapore up 15.5% , Germany est. 0.75%

QUOTE: "Children must be taught how to think, not what to think."

MARKET PULSE

1. US: Forecast: Retail sales rose 4th month.
2. US: Retail sales up 0.3 % in July after a 0.4 % advance in June
3. US: Fed's Lockhart- "first cuts in Fed bond purchases may come as early as September"
4. JAPAN: GDP expanded an annualized 2.6 % (2nd Q ) vs 3.8 % in Q1
5. EUR: Net longs were 6,061 on Aug. 6, versus net shorts of 8,504 a week earlier.
6. EUR: euro-zone GDP has contracted six quarters in a row,"
7. EUR: German Second-Quarter GDP Growth Said to Be Estimated at 0.75%
8. SINGAPORE: 2Q GDP expanded 15.5% Q/q vs est. 14.2%
9. GOLD: Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust increased 1.8 MT to 911.13 tons on Aug. 9
10. GOLD: China gold consumption rose 54 % to 706.36 tons (YoY) in 1st 6 months
11. GOLD: ANZ: Forecast $1,400 in 2014 and $1,500 in 2015.

COMMODITIES

1. Gold Advances to Highest Level This Month as SPDR Assets Expand
2. Hedge Funds Trim Gold Bets on Stimulus Speculation
3. WTI Crude Fluctuates as Brent Declines Sixth Time in Seven Days
4. Gold Premiums in India Seen Extending Climb to Record on Curbs
5. Oil Traders Sell Seeing End to Fed's QE3
6. Copper Declines as Japan's Economy Expands Less Than Estimated
7. China Gold, Silver Jewelry Sales Surged 42% in July

INDIAN INR

MARKETS

[justify]INR rose to a 1-week high. INR advanced 0.4 % to 60.60 at opening and saw a high of 60.45 . It saw a low of 61.8050 on Aug. 6 and has lost 8.7 % in the past year. 1-month volatility, fell 20 bp to 12.32 %. 3-month forwards rose 0.4 % to 62.09. 3-month NDF fell 0.3 % to 62.06[/justify]

FACTORS

1. CB to further tighten cash supply to support INR
2. RBI will auction $3.6 Bln of cash-management bills every Monday.
3. FORECAST: CPI rose 9.7 % in July (YoY) Vs. 9.87 % in June
4. RBI has barred banks from proprietary trading in currency futures.

GOLD

MARKETS

[justify]Gold spot up as 1.5 % to $1,333.94 (July 31 High) and was trading at $1,329.92 in Asia . Gold December up 1.6 % to $1,333 . Silver up 3.5 % to $21.285 (June 20 High). Silver advanced 3.3 % last week, the biggest gain since the period to July 12.[/justify]

FACTORS

1. Holdings in the biggest ETF expanded for the first time since June.
2. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust increased 1.8 MT to 911.13 tons on Aug. 9
3. China gold consumption rose 54 % to 706.36 tons (YoY) in 1st 6 months
4. ANZ: Forecast $1,400 in 2014 and $1,500 in 2015.

SENSEX

MARKETS

The S&P BSE Sensex rose 0.6 % to 18,905.34 at opening ( 1 week high)

FACTORS

1. Drug-makers rallied on higher earnings,
2. Sun Pharm posted a 56 % gain in net income
3. Cipla Ltd. surged 4.1 % after first-quarter profit beat estimates.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

MARKETS

[justify]USD Index, advanced 0.1 % to 81.234. USD rose 0.3 % to 96.48 JPY, with a low of 95.81 on Aug. 8.[/justify]
[justify],USD rose 0.1 % vs the EUR , EURUSD at $1.3325 . EUR rose 0.1 % to 128.56 JPY after earlier reaching 127.98, the weakest since June 27[/justify]

FACTORS

1. US : Forecast : Retail sales rose 4th month.
2. US : Retail sales up 0.3 % in July after a 0.4 % advance in June
3. US : Fed'sLockhart- " first cuts in Fed bond purchases may come as early as September"
4. Japan, GDP expanded an annualized 2.6 % (2nd Q ) vs 3.8 % in Q1
5. EUR: Net longs were 6,061 contracts on Aug. 6, versus net shorts of 8,504 a week earlier.
6. EUR: euro-zne GDP has contracted six quarters in a row,"
7. German Second-Quarter GDP Growth Said to Be Estimated at 0.75%
8. Singapore's 2Q GDP expanded 15.5% Q/q vs est. 14.2%

COPPER

MARKETS

[justify]Copper 3 months dropped as much as 0.8 % to $7,220 a MT and was at $7,229 in Asia , Copper is down 8.9 % this year. Copper September fell 0.5 % at $3.29 a pound[/justify]

FACTORS

1. Japan's economy grew less than expected.
2. China industrial output turns positive

OIL

MARKETS

[justify]WTI September at $106.14 up 17 cents. It advanced $2.57 to settle at $105.97 on Aug. 9. The volume of all futures traded was 9.5 % below the 100-day average. Prices fell 0.9 % last week. Brent September slid 3 cents to $108.19. Brent at a premium of $2.05 to WTI .[/justify]

FACTORS

1. Money managers reduced their net- long positions on crude for a 2nd week
2. U.S. crude stockpiles declined for the 5th time in 6 weeks

Iranian oil minister "first action will be to bring the country's oil production capacity back to 2005"

Hi Alex,

I am from Chennai, Tamilnadu, India.

I would like to trade XAUUSD (Spot Gold) through a proper of Member of any Exchange in MT4 platform. At chennai, a broker called HARVEST INTERNATIONAL CONSORTIUM having their branch. Their website is

http://www.hicfx.com/

They say, they are the member of JAKARTA FUTURES EXCHANGE and their name is appearing in the memberlist in Exchange website. Pls have a look at the below link.

http://bbj-jfx.com/en/list-brokers.html

Please suggest whether I can open an account with them as I need to trade with a safe & proper member of a recognized Exchange.

Tnanks in advance for your valuable suggestions

Hi guys. I am a bit confused about gold futures contracts.
Why did GC1! opened today(30/07/24) with a huge gap. And why GCQ2024(AUG) suddenly lost volume and started making weird candlesticks. At first i thougt it was because the contract is near its ending, but then i cheked the next contract GCU2024(SEP) and it has even worst volume.