Trading Gold with PA

Like I said, excuse my words.

What you are saying, the logic is perfectly OK.
I am trying to show how this logic can be compacted to where it is already there - the picture.
Like the difference between putting letters together into words, and global reading.
The truth is, you do not need to see every letter in order to read the whole word properly.
Check that out on the web, there are examples.
You can change the order of letters, and you will still read the word, you won't even notice
the difference until you look closely, again.

Same with charts and Price Action.

I draw the Zone, you can read it in detail, if you wish.
Just draw the Zone from a higher Tf and read it out in a lower Tf.
Read it your way, as long as it works.

I, too, would wish for more people to contribute to this thread.

What others have to say, how they see GOLD, have they had success?

Or, maybe it is because of the other thread on GOLD?

On NFP day, trading can be very difficult
What I am seeing on the H1 chart is a series of higher lows from yesterday.
Today has been pretty much sideways, but there was a strong bullish candle, much larger than the previous indecisive candles.
Bears are coming in at the previous high, but they are being quickly soaked up by the Bulls.
Call me suspicious, but maybe the Bulls have advance knowledge of NFP? If the $ falls then Gold becomes cheaper in other currencies and is likely to rise.
I have opened a small long position, I'm quite prepared to accept slippage if I am wrong, but if I am right and the market surges up I am quite comfortable that a return of 3x risk is achievable.

SL is now a little above BE

Not enough thrust, so I am exiting



Happy with 86 pips

The way I see it, the Long was pretty obvious:
1. Knowing what was and is going on on other secureties,
2. Knowing what happened with PA at GOLD, yesterday,
3. Keeping in mind, that this might be only a retrace, a correction,
4. Knowing GOLD Ranges,
5. Seeing the three Red H4 Candles close inside the previous Bullish Candle,
6. And seeing the Breakup Candle

What other decision could there be for today?

Do you guys think this is a strong PA reversal? I think given the retest and rejection of the lower prices we may see higher prices.
Would love to hear your thoughts?

Cheers Pipin

Gumari....your candle by candle simple common sense analysis is brilliant.
You will probably get nothing out of all this because your advanced beyond 99% of the people who read and post on FF message boards including me. Thanks for taking the time to post and share.

According to my visual PA method GOLD may go some higher,
before it returns down, as the Zones show:


Of course, there is always the second scenario, where the Price Breaks all levels and goes up.

But, Price always retraces at some point.

Also, BOJ has a lot of impact as they have some Yen issue - they are weakening their currency.

Hi Pipin, thanks for joining in, would be nice if you put a chart up with some of your thoughts though

Yes, there could well be some bullish follow through, but nothing is set in stone, the market will do what it will do.
All we can do is look for clues and try to make sense of them.
If the Bulls do take control, then I will not be so eager to jump on board, especially all the while that price is below that frustrating 1600 level.
In this situation,because the bulls are likely to enconter multi levels of resistance, I would rather wait for bullish break of resistance and then a retracement to test broken resistance as support. That may mean that price takes off without me, but that happens.

Looking at the weekly chart....

If zoomed out, you will see that there was a very strong uptrend prior to this range. We don't know whether this range is simply a sideways correction before continuation of the uptrend, or consolidation before a major trend reversal. Whatever will happen over the next few months, what we can see with our current charts is that price is near the bottom of a range. Until price breaks convincingly below this range, it is probably best to be cautious if considering short positions.

1. There was a strong bearish move over a 2 week period. The relatively long lower shadow of candle 1 suggests that the bulls attempted to take control towards the candle close. Looking to the left and seeing all those lower shadows, it's not surprising that price found support here.
2. Although a bearish candle, it is almost a doji and was unable to make a new low. The long upper shadow indicates that the bulls were probing, maybe entering small positions at support. Move was not sustained. You have to take into account all the bears that entered during the lower shadow of candle 1 would be holding losing positions. Some of the unsustained bullish move could be due to short covering and not bull pressure. This candle doesn't necessarily indicate an increase in bullish strength, but there is a certain amount of weakening on the bear side.
Candle 3 was a doji, indecision and unable to make a new low. The following 2 candles were bullish, but it was not a strong bull push up.
I would guess that the bears were waiting at the level near the highs of candles 1 and 2, this would also be the area where conservative bulls will look to take some profits.
We had a strong push from the bears that was rejected at support. The long lower shadow at 4 shows that the bulls fought back strongly, but the bears did succeed in hitting a new recent low and the candle did close with a bear body.



This is a lot of mixed signals. It is possible that price will trade in a range between the high of candle 2 and the low of candle 4.
What does my analysis tell me?
That I have no idea where the market is most likely to go from here
I think that we will probably have to wait and see what clues, if any, the market will give us next week.

On the daily chart.
Thursdays candle had a substantial lower shadow
Friday's was a bullish engulfing pattern candle with a near as dammit shaven top. Such a strong bullish push should indicate that there will likely be bullish follow through.
But as the chart stands, if entering long and placing a sensible stop-loss, price is likely to hit resistance before a 1:1 R:R is available.
I will wait and see what next week brings.

Thank you Decades, but I think that you flatter me, I don't consider myself to be advanced.
I was hoping for input in this thread to help me improve at reading PA.
I know that you trade daily charts and stocks using PA.
I hope that if you have the time that you could cast your eyes over the daily gold chart and post your analysis occasionally.
That would be great

Hi Gumrai,

I have very similar charts. You will notice on the Wkly chart price has tested the ~1530 support 6 times now with good bullish price action. That linked with the strong bullish close on friday gives me some confidence on the reversal.

But all of this needs to be confirmed with a break of the WKly. I will look to enter a (very small) long at the 50% retrace of the previous wkly pinbar to get sufficient RR then again at the break.

I agree with your comments that area "2" is very important zone to watch.

Cheers Pipin.

That is the point, Gumrai.
Dacades has the point.

You already have all the ability you need.
There is nothing else to learn about PA.

PA is just that, reading PA from the chart.

The rest is You.

Either you believe what you read, or you don't.

Nobody can tell you more about PA than there is on the chart.

Candle Patterns are the result of reading charts.

Candle Patterns definitions are models of what can be seen on charts.

There is nothing more.

You read, you believe or not, you decide!

Ultimately, it is all about You!

Just this last text, Gumrai, and I will not post any more such things, here.

Like you have experienced, yourself:
It takes you "a split of second" to see PA on charts.
It takes you "eternity" to translate PA to written text.

Now, imagine the less proficient reader who is trying
to translate the written text into the picture on the chart.
This reader has to remember part by part, and identify the part on the picture.
Scrolling up and down.

Now, that is a task in itself!

And, those who can do it, just do it.
They are not looking for understanding why?
They have no opinion to share, they read PA.

The ones with opinion about Price Action are those who do not understand PA.

Thus, the circle completes itself.

GOLD
This picture shows extreme levels which had been set
during the Great Bear Surge of 2011.09.01:


The W1 picture on these levels shows validity of the S/R Zones:


The more recent MN Consolidation at the present levels shows this picture:



Thus, we can optimise the picture to a more recent W1 Consolidation to see the more recent levels:

This picture clearly identifies the Lowest Low, or the floor, which the Price has rejected.

Thus, we can identify potential Breakout/Breakdown levels:

These are the previous D1 Bulls rejection levels:

For sure, I have opinions about PA and I don't pretend to understand PA totally. I wish that I did.

There is nothing to understand.
Just, read it.

Of course there is something to understand.
If you were to make a valid post in Polish, it would be a requirement that I could read and understand Polish for it to mean something to me.
You cannot just read unless you also understand.

The only things I understand is why Price goes Up and why Price goes Down.
I do not understand when it will go Up or Down, and I do not pretend to understand.

I read the Price Action and make decisions based on Higher Probability that the Price
might react this or that way based on similar historical reaction at the same levels.

That is all any Trader can do.

PS.
Graph on chart is picture, it is Universal Language.