Trading Gold with PA

PS.
Notice the Bullish spike just before I closed.
Let's see if the price returns to that level, today?

Nobody is posting...

Thought I'd post something.


What we can see here, has nothing to do with Market Sentiment.
Looks like the Cyprus Factor.
Or Matrix Reset.

However, nobody can say that PA did not signal Short!
It is just the depth of this short we could not have been able to diagnose.

Oh, I forgot - you probably can not see this on your charts.

The Metals Market is open for me, today.

Looking at the M15 chart at the start of the new week
Price opened with a small gap up, a very big range for M15 but closed as a slightly bullish, but mainly indecisive candle
Bears took price down to below the open, 1 bullish bar and then it seemed like the bears took control.
The bearish run finished with a long lower shadow, indicating that the bulls were fighting back, making the day low so far.
The next bullish bar was very strong and this single candle basically covered most of the previous bearish candles.
The bulls managed to push up to make a new day high but since then there has been a series of lower highs.
But the long lower shadows show a lack of conviction from the bears.
The bullish bars are much stronger.
Now price seems to have made a double bottom.
I feel that it is most likely that we are in a bullish trend or a range. A good signal to go long may be worth the risk.
I doubt that I will trade this, just watching out of interest.

This is more like what really happened:

The D1 chart in relation to previous important W1 Zone Candle (the brown-gainsboro background),
which is the W1 Candle with the previous Lowest Low, shows that price wants to go up, but keeps finding
resistance. Though, sudden drops are immediatelly bounced back up.

This can, also be observed on the H4 chart.

The D1 pink boxed Zone Candle which is Friday, shows strong Support.
The price is now Consolidating at Friday Resistance Zone level.

The price is, also in the middle of the W1 Zone Candle Body.

This is, certainly an unknown direction.
Could be either way, Up or Down.

Though, from D1 point of view, rather Down.

But, if I were to say anything about the rest of 2013,
I think that GOLD will be on the way Up.

In about 3 weeks we should see 1612 - 1613.
Then, in 4-5 weeks, some retrace, even down to 1578.

Then up until breaching the upper AP fork,
and when breached, we should be on the UP trend.

The other scenario would require the price to breach the 1554 level Down.
That would be some serious Down.

Following on from my previous post....

There was a reasonable signal to go long off of the double bottom at candle 1, but it was a fairly short lived bullish push.
One of the problems with trading from the lower tf in Gold is that often a move on the charts that appears to give the opportunity to set the SL to BE doesn't because of the spread and the relatively small candles.
If we were looking at an H1 chart instead of M15, with the same pattern, the move would probably have been big enough.
I didn't take the trade because of the holiday, so nothing lost.
As the day moved on failure to make new day high or day low meant that we were in a small trading range ( small for Gold as the day's range was only about 65 pips)
Even with hindsight it's difficult to spot any worthwhile set-ups. Best to step back from trading during the holiday periods.

New day has started with a strong bullish push but hit resistance at candle 3.
Price has dropped, maybe partly because of bulls taking profits and maybe gaining bearish confidence.
The main thing is that price is above that pesky 1600 level and if it can stay above it, we could get another strong push up.
Ideally, I'd like to see some signs of the bulls taking back control near the 1600 level with TP1 at the high of candle 3.
If bulls can push through 3, maybe a good run.
The main thing is that there is an entry that allows a fairly tight stop that would yield R:R of 1:1 at candle 3.

Following up from that conclusion.

GOLD must be looked at from W1, D1 and H4 charts.
It is no use to try and figure out GOLD Price Movement from M15 or M30.

From W1 point of view, the price is inside the last Bearish Candle which made the Local Low.
The Price has not Broken up through the Resistance Zone of that Candle.
The Price is bouncing of down. The previous week Candle is Bearish and is a Break down Candle
in relation to the short Bullish Candle.


D1 - March 28 Candle is Bearish and Breakdown.
Yesterdays Bullish Candle never Broke up, reached ca. 3/4 of the Bearish Candle.


H4 - a series of Breakdown Candles, each lower than the previous one.
And, today, the first Breakdown H4 Candle is signal enough for Short.


M30 - a good Short Entry at the small brown rectangle.

I stated my opinion.

However, as I look at the facts, Price Action, it looks pretty Bearish, still.


I know that people wish for GOLD to reach 2000 - it don't look that way!

It looks more like we can see new, long unseen lows!

Is this where GOLD is heading?

Look very likely...

I think I have found the right refference Candle.
It shows this picture:

Finally Gold has broken away from that pesky 1600 level. Maybe we will see more decent set-ups now?

On the H1 chart..

On 2nd April, price broke above a range. This proved to be a failed break-out. Often a failed break-out results with a much more forceful break in the opposite direction as happened in this case.
There was a period of congestion prior to candle 1. This was at the level of a double bottom from the 11th and 14th of March
Bears re-asserted themselves and took the price lower
Maybe because price was nearing the last major daily swing low, bears were probably scaling out of their positions at the low of candle 1, reducing selling pressure and increasing buying pressure ( When bears exit their shorts, they are effectively buying)
A small range followed and the bulls, sensing bearish weakness pushed price up from the range, but the push quickly ran out of steam as can be see by the 3 indecision candles prior to candle 2.
The high of candle 2 hit the broken support level that could now act as resistance and it seems that the bears were waiting there with a fair amount of strength.
Candle 2 was an engulfing pattern candle and the high and low covered the range of all 3 previous candles. I would prefer to see a shaven bottom, but still a good signal to short.
Bears took the price down below the level of the last significant swing low on the daily chart.
Bulls retaliated and pushed up for 2 candles. This was followed by 2 indecisive candles
Candle 3 formed a small double top and was another engulfing pattern candle and its range covered the previous 2. Near as dammit a shaven bottom another good short signal. But be aware that price is right on support and so wise not to enter with a full position and maybe look to scale in, depending on suggestions from the market.



This is just a bit of hindsight analysis as I didn't take either of these set-ups.
I did actually take a small long position between candle 1 and 2, but I exited that while candle 2 was in progress and it was time for bed, so I wasn't around for these set-ups.

Just as a matter of interest, I will be looking at the M15 chart to see what signals that offered.

So on to M15 chart. The 1,2 and 3 are the same as on the previously posted hourly chart.

Reversals don't always happen at nice solid S/R levels. Following a strong downmove, there going to be retracements and if you always wait for retracements to reach broken support, you can miss out on good moves in the direction of the trend.

Prior to candle A price was in a small trading range above the new recent low.
Candle A broke above this range quite forcefully, but the upper shadow takes about 1 third of the total candle and that suggests that towards the end of the candle the bears were resisting the bullish push.
The following candle was bearish shaven, meaning that it opened on its high and closed on its low. That bullish thrust is not looking so strong now. Considering that candle A was a break-out in the opposite direction of the main trend, we could be seeng a failed break-out. Failed break-outs, especially when against the trend can often lead to the opposite break-out and many times with force.
This time it wouldn't have worked, but at least there was opportunity to move the stop to BE.

The candle before 2 was quite strong bullish with a shaven top that closed at broken support level.
Candle 2 had negligable shadows, formed a double reversal at broken support and closed below the low of the previous candle. A good short signal that would have got you in the trade much earlier than the H1 chart.

Candle 3 was a bearish engulfing pattern candle (almost shaven) at a double top. Maybe a little small for an engulfing pattern, but the following was a larger almost shaven bearish bar which could be considered confirmation. If entering on the low of the candle following 3, you would be entering at the same place as from the hourly chart.

M15 chart again

The candle before B, although a bullish bar, had a relatively long lower shadow and was unable to break the high of the previous candle.
This shows that the Bulls' resolve is weakening. the Bears are probing and this bullish retracement in a bear trend may soon end.
Candle B is bearish with a shaved bottom and long upper shadow that was rejected at the S/R zone and incidently at the low of 21st February to the pip (the last significant swing low on the Daily chart). I'm sure that some would refer to this as a pin bar. A good reversal signal
I took this trade at the break below, but as I was a bit slow, I actually gained a pip or 2
Only a small position with a TP at the previous swing low.
TP was hit with 94 pips profit.
I could have traded more aggressively and put the stop a few pips above the high of candle B, but opted for the proven resistance level at the double top at A

I am going for the Big Picture.
SL is in BE now.

Gumrai,

If you wanted to get a couple of good GOLD Pips out of DT,
wouldn't this be the simplest thing to do, instead of all that,
excuse my words, mumbo-jumbo?


My point is, know your instrument well if want to play it.

When GOLD is on the run, it is on the run.
Look at the D1, Bears slope like hell, as if falling in an abyss.
Bulls just slope mildly, sometimes for a long time, but no power.

GOLD is one of the simplest instruments to play.
Just understand it! Don't fight against it! Don't complicate your life!

I try to write down what I am seeing and thinking when I see a possible trade set-up. It is not so complicated and the thought process takes very little time compared to the time it takes to write it down.
You may think that it is mumbo jumbo, but I hope that others will see it as the reasoning behind taking a trade.
You can post your charts with your zones marked, maybe other readers can understand what you are on about, but I don't know what you are saying;
I don't question you because I have no idea what you are talking about in your other thread on PA. It seems pretty vague to me, but it is obvious that other people do understand. Maybe that is my failing because I am unable to grasp your reasoning.
I don't want an in depth discussion about your methods here, because it would be ridiculous to duplicate what is already in your thread.
I want you to carry on posting as I am sure that some readers of this thread are able to understand your way of trading with PA.

There have been quite a few viewers of this thread, unfortunately apart from myself and Dadas not many contributors.
If you viewers feel that what I say is a lot of mumbo jumbo, please post your opinions. If what I am posting doesn't make sense, then I will allow this thread to die its natural death