DGCX INR www.dgcx.ae DGCX INR OPEN HIGH LOW PD CLOSE Monday, March 25, 2013 184.08 184.04 184.95 184
54.3242 54.3360 54.0687 54.3478 MARKET PULSE
EURO- ZONE: Cyprus agreed to an international aid package.
EURO- ZONE The troika representing international lenders, ratified by finance ministers from the 17-nation EZ, will pave the way for 10 billion Euros ($13 billion) of loans to Cyprus.
US: The USD Index, fell for a 4th day, losing 0.2 %.
GOLD: ETP products fell for a sixth week and were at 2,454.35 MT (Lowest since August 2009).
INDIA : All restrictions for purchases of government and corporate notes will be removed from April 1.
INDIA : Foreign Investor cap at $25 billion for sovereign debt and $51 billion for corporate bonds.
COMMODITIES
WTI Oil Gains on Cyprus Deal; Brent Premium Narrowest Since July.
Hedge Funds Most Bearish Ever on Copper, Favor Gold.
Gold Advances as Accord for Cyprus , Weakens USD.
Industrial Metals Advance as Cyprus Deal Wins Approval .
Technical : INR breaches resistance at 54.2599 and 54.1787, next resistance at 54.0187; pivot point at 54.3387; support at 54.4199, 54.4987, 54.6587. INR between 100 DMA at 54.3768 and 50 DMA at 54.0674
Government's share offer in Steel Authority of India is now completed.
All restrictions for purchases of government and corporate notes will be removed from April 1.
Foreign Investor cap at $25 billion for sovereign debt and $51 billion for corporate bonds.
India current account deficit forecast at $75 billion 2013-2014.
GOLD MARKETS
Gold Spot up 0.3 % at $1,613.76 and was trading at $1,611.43 in Asia . Gold June rose 0.3 % to $1,612.20 after declining 0.3 % in the previous session. Silver spot rose 0.6 % to $28.92 .
FACTORS
Cyprus agreed to an international aid package.
The troika representing international lenders, ratified by finance ministers from the 17-nation euro area, will pave the way for 10 billion Euros ($13 billion) of loans to Cyprus.
The USD Index, fell for a 4th day, losing 0.2 %.
Cyprus is the 5th country to request for aid, since the crisis broke out in Greece in 2009.
Gold ETP products fell for a sixth week and were at 2,454.35 MT (Lowest since August 2009).
. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS Euro rose broadly on Monday. EUR rose 0.4 % to $1.3043,having traded at roughly $1.2985 before news of the Cyprus Aid . EUR-JPY up 0.8% to 123.75. FACTORS
Euro Rises Versus Peers as Cyprus Aid Approved.
Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades agreed to shut the country's second-largest bank .
AUD reaches 2-month high on Cyprus aid agreement.
Japan Household Assets Rose 3.1% in 4th Quarter, as declared by BOJ.
COPPER Copper rose on Monday after Cyprus reached an outline deal with international lenders for a 10 billion euro loan, which boosted appetite for high yielding assets and soothing concerns over the impact of a euro zone default on demand for metals. 3-month copper up 0.50 % to $7,693.25. It had risen 1 % in the previous session. OIL Brent crude futures fell on Thursday on concerns of worries about the outlook for petroleum demand in Europe. Brent May crude fell $1.25, or 1.15 %, to settle at $107.47 a barrel, having traded from $107.08 to $108.75.
INDIAN INR MARKETS
There were no trades in India's bond and currency markets today as banks closed their accounts for the financial year ended March 31. INR gained 0.2 % on March 28, taking the 1st quarter's advance to 1.3 %. 10 Year Benchmark at 7.95%. INR, ended last quarter at 54.28 and may trade between 54 and 55 in the coming weeks. FACTORS
Overseas funds added $1.9 in equities March adding to f $4.1 billion in February.
Corporate appetite for offshore loans will be intact as long as the currency is at current levels.
GOLD MARKETS
Gold spot at $1,598.58 versus $1,598.75.The price dropped 4.6 % in the 1st quarter to complete the 1st two consecutive quarterly declines since 2001. Silver declined 1 % to $28.165 - the weakest since March 27, extending two quarterly drops FACTORS
U.S. recovery and stronger USD may cut gold demand.
FORECAST : U.S. payrolls grew in March, according to the median forecast of 58 economists
FORECAST : Euro-Zone unemployment climbed to a record in February.
ETP fell 6.9 % this year as the USD Index gained 4.2 %.
Platinum ETP rose to a record of 52.3814 MT on March 28,
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS The euro traded at $1.2801, down about 0.1 % from late Asian trade on Friday and near a 4-month low of $1.2750 hit on Wednesday. FACTORS
Euro Declines After Monthly Drop on Weakening Economic Recovery
China's March manufacturing PMI at 50.9 vs estimate of 51.2 .
China's yuan rose to a 19-year high .
China manufacturing expanded in March at the fastest pace in 11 months.
COPPER Copper fell to its lowest level in more than 8 months on Monday, pressured by a weak euro and new measures to cool down China's property sector. July copper contract fell 1.9 % to $8,700 lowest since July 25
OIL Crude oil prices rose on Wednesday in choppy trading as U.S. heating oil rallied on falling distillate inventories, while rising crude oil stockpiles in the United States and the stronger USD limited gains. Brent May crude rose 33 cents to settle at $109.69, after reaching $109.98, testing resistance near its 200-day moving average of $109.90. The session low was $108.85. U.S. May crude rose 24 cents to settle at $96.58, having traded from $95.58 to $96.84, which was the highest intra day price in five weeks.
US: The ISM factory index fell to 51.3 from an almost two-year high of 54.2 in February.
EURO ZONE: FORECAST: Unemployment in the euro area climbed to a record 12 %.
EURO ZONE: ECB to announce the interest-rate decision on Thursday 4th April 2013.
EURO ZONE Cyprus seeks more time to meet targets in talks with Troika.
EURO ZONE Barclays FORECAST Sees slow-down taking Euro to $1.23.
EURO ZONE German inflation at 2- Year low ( 1.7 % from 1.8 % in February)
INDIA: Current-account deficit record $32.6 billion in Q1 (previous quarter's $22.6 billion)
INDIA: Needs $75 billion of foreign capital in the year through March 2014 to fund the deficit.
COMMODITIES
WTI Drops for a Second Day; U.S. Crude Stockpiles Seen Rising
Copper Tumbles to Seven-Month Low as Metals Fall on Factory Data
Gold Climbs for Third Day as Silver Rebounds Following U.S. Data
Copper Below March Low Signaling More Losses:
MARKETS DJIA 14572.85 -5.7 EUR 1.2864 0.0 DINR1M 182.95 0.26 NSE1M 54.67 -0.005 NASDAQ 3239.173 -28.3 GBP 1.5238 0.0 DINR2M 181.89 0.19 NSE2M 54.985 -0.005 FTSE 6411.74 24.0 JPY 92.81 -0.4 INR-Spot 54.3288 0.0488 MCX1M 54.67 -0.0025 NIKKEI 12051.2 -83.8 GOLD 1602.28 2.8 NDF1M 54.74 0.05 MCX2M 54.9875 0.0025 HANG-S 22317.97 18.3 SILVER 28.055 0.0 NDF2M 55.04 0 WTI 96.69 -0.38 NIFTY 5695.6 -8.8 3MCU 7455.25 -84.8 SENSEX 18854.14 -10.61 BRENT 110.77 -0.31 INDIAN INR MARKETS INR declines 0.1% to 54.3325; 1-month volatility slides 6 BP to 8.0375%. 3 Month INR forwards traded at 55.39 Vs. 55.33. 3M NDF at 55.35 vs. 55.53 . 10 Year Benchmark at 7.985 , 1-year IRS at 7.4750%; 5-year IRS at 7.2300% FACTORS
Technical: INR approaching 100 DMA at 54.3887.
Current-account at a record $32.6 billion in Q1( previous quarter's $22.6 billion).
Needs $75 billion of foreign capital in the year through March 2014 to fund the deficit.
INR strengthened 1.3 % last quarter.
USD Index fell 0.2 % today after data yesterday showed U.S. manufacturing slid in March.
GOLD MARKETS Gold Spot up 0.3 % to $1,603.88. Silver gained 0.6 % to $28.1925 Vs. $28.0375. It was the lowest settlement since Aug. 15,and 19.9 % below the closing high on Oct. 4. FACTORS
US: The ISM factory index fell to 51.3 from an almost two-year high of 54.2 in February,
Gold ETP increased to 2,449.95 MT from 2449.839 tons last week.
FORECAST: Unemployment in the euro area climbed to a record 12 %.
European Central Bank to announce the interest-rate decision on Thursday 4th April 2013
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS JPY at 1-month high. USD fell 0.3 % to 93.04 yen, having fallen as far as 92.96, the USD's lowest level against the JPY since early March. FACTORS
CAD at 5-Week High on Job Forecast .
Cyprus Seeks More Time to Meet Targets in Talks With Troika .
Barclays FORECAST Sees slow-down taking Euro to $1.23.
German inflation at 2- Year low ( 1.7 % from 1.8 % in February).
OIL Brent crude rose above $111 a barrel in choppy trading on Monday as a weaker USD provided support, while U.S. crude prices fell as a pipeline leak in Arkansas threatened to increase the glut of oil in the U.S. Midwest. Brent May crude rose $1.20 to $111.22 having risen above the 200-day moving average of $110.05. U.S. May crude was down 28 cents at $96.95 after hitting a six-week high of $97.80 during the session.
US: New Factory Orders rose the most in five months .
US : S&P 500 Index closed higher to a new record (Up 10 % in 2013).
US : USD Index up 4 %.in 2013.
GOLD : SG : Gold at $1,375 by December , Average $1,500 2013 , and $1400 in 2014.
GOLD : SPDR Gold Trust, worlds biggest ETF fell to 1,208.92 MT (Lowest since July 2011) .
AUSTRALIA : AUD rose on a smaller-than-estimated trade deficit.
CENTRAL BANKS reserves up $30.1 billion in CAD and AUD (Q4 2012) versus $31.5 billion in USD.
UK: Inflation: Retail prices rose 1.4 % Year on Year versus 1.1 % in February.
INDIA : Global funds bought $ 459 m of local bonds on April 1st, biggest 1-day inflow.
COMMODITIES
WTI Crude Drops as U.S. Oil Stockpiles Gain Most in Four Weeks
Gold Declines to Three-Week Low as Investors Reduce Holdings
Gold Futures Decline the Most in Five Weeks
MARKETS DJIA 14662.01 90.0 EUR 1.2805 0.0 DINR1M 182.86 0.19 NSE1M 54.685 0.0775 NASDAQ 3254.862 15.7 GBP 1.5087 0.0 DINR2M 181.76 0.16 NSE2M 55.015 0.0775 FTSE 6490.66 79.0 JPY 93.53 0.1 INR-Spot 54.3712 0.1024 MCX1M 54.6825 0.075 NIKKEI 12314 310.6 GOLD 1567.69 -8.2 NDF1M 54.77 -0.09 MCX2M 55.015 0.0775 HANG-S 22330.89 -36.9 SILVER 27.0825 -0.2 NDF2M 55.07 -0.1 WTI 96.69 -0.5 NIFTY 5724.45 -23.7 3MCU 7480 15.0 SENSEX 18984.86 -56.09 BRENT 110.34 -0.35 INDIAN INR MARKETS INR declines for first time in 3 trading days, falling 0.3% to 54.4050. 1-month volatility at 7.9925%. 3-month forwards at 55.44 versus 55.35. 3-Month NDF at 55.37 versus 55.28. 10 year benchmark at 7.993%.1-year IRS at 7.4600%, 5-year IRS at 7.2350%. FACTORS
Technical :Support at 54.3451; next support at 54.4213, 54.5488; pivot point at 54.2938; resistance at 54.2176, 54.1663, 54.0388.
Global funds bought $ 459 m of local bonds more than they sold on April 1, biggest 1-day inflow.
Trade Deficit at $32.6 on imports of oil and gold , export growth slows.
USD Index fell 0.2 % on 3rd April.
GOLD MARKETS Gold spot fell 0.8 % to $1,563.68 (Lowest since March 8 ). Gold June fell 0.5 % to $1,568. Cash silver, fell 0.9 % to $27.025,( lowest since Aug. 2, 2012). FACTORS
SPDR Gold Trust, worlds biggest ETF fell to 1,208.92 MT (Lowest since July 2011)
US : New Factory Orders rose the most in five months
S&P 500 Index closed higher to a new record (Up 10 % in 2013)
USD Index up 4 %.in 2013
Societe Generale : Gold at $1,375 by December , Average $1,500 2013 , and $1400 in 2014
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS The yen retreated from a 1-month high , while the euro was lower too. JPY at 93.37 (1-month low of 92.57 on Tuesday) . It was still some way off a 3-1/2 year high of 96.71 set last month. FACTORS
EUR weaker on opinion of stimulus from ECB tomorrow.
BoJ 2-day meeting. Opinion may increase monthly bond purchases due to deflation.
AUD rose on a smaller-than-estimated trade deficit.
Central Banks reserves up $30.1 billion in CAD and AUD (Q4 2012) versus $31.5 billion in USD.
UK: Inflation: Retail prices rose 1.4 % Year on Year versus 1.1 % in February.
OIL Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as concerns about supply and the pace of growth in the United States and the Euro Zone economy tempered optimism about stronger demand in Asia.
Brent May crude fell 44 cents to $110.64 , after hitting an early high of $111.79. The low for the session of $110 a barrel saw Brent below the 200-day moving average at $110.17.
U.S. May crude was up 14 cents at $ 97.21 , after earlier falling to a low of $ 95.91.
The Brent/U.S. crude spread narrowed to around $13.60 after widening to $14.66 earlier in the session.
INDIAN RUPEE MARKETS INR declines for 2nd day, fell 0.2% to 54.5550. 1-Month volatility down 8 bps to 7.7800%. 3-month forwards at 55.71 versus 55.49, NDF at 55.69 versus 55.43.. 10 Year benchmark at 7.95% . 1-year IRS at 7.4050%; 5-year IRS at 7.2100% FACTORS
Technical : INR broke support at 54.4904, 54.5408; next support at 54.6620; pivot point at 54.4196; resistance at 54.3692, 54.2984, 54.1772.
Indian exporters to get 30 billion INR of additional incentives
GDP in the U.S. rose at a 0.4 % annual rate in the fourth quarter, up from a 0.1 % estimate.
GOLD MARKETS Gold Spot lost 1 % to $1,541.82 (lowest l since May 30), Gold June down 0.8 % to $1,541.20 . Spot silver fell 1 % to $26.73 (lowest since July 24) . FACTORS
Gold down 18.7% from its record close of $1,900.23 in September 2011, nearing the 20 % that defines a bear market.
ETP stood at 2,437.38 MT yesterday, 7.4 % below the high reached on Dec. 20, 2012
US companies added fewer jobs than projected.
U.S. Labor Department is scheduled to report non-farm payrolls data for March tomorrow.
Fed President J. Bullard "no hurry to reduce bond buying with inflation below its 2 % target."
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS The yen held near one-month highs against the USD , JPY at 93.05 down from a session high of 93.69 on Wednesday. It has lost nearly 4 % from a 3-1/2 year peak of 96.71 . Initial support is seen around 92.55, the 23.6 % retracement of its Nov-March rally. FACTORS
CAD Falls From 6-Week High as Crude Oil, Stocks Drop
Draghi Considers Plan B as Sentiment Dims After Cyprus .
FORECAST UK will hold its target for asset purchases at 375 billion pounds ($568 billion) today.
AUD up after Retail Sales exceeds forecasts.
COPPER Copper slipped to its lowest in eight months on Thursday after weak jobs data suggested that the U.S.labor market recovery may not be sustained, hurting demand expectations for metals in a thin market with China out for a two-day break. 3-month copper fell to its lowest since August 3 at $7,356.25 before paring loses to $7, still down 0.24 % . OIL Oil prices fell more than 2 % on Wednesday as U.S. crude oil inventories grew to their highest level since 1990 and weak economic data stoked worries about U.S. energy demand. Brent crude was down $2.72 at $107.97 having fallen as low as $107.78. U.S. crude was down $2.19 at $95 a barrel, having fallen to $94.89, just above the 50-day moving average at $94.64.
INDIAN INR MARKETS INR climbs for 3rd day, rising 0.2% to 54.4762. 1-month volatility drops 1 bp to 7.7650% . 1-year IRS at 7.4275%; 5-year IRS at 7.2050% , 10 Year Benchmark at 7.913% . FACTORS
Technical: Pivot point at 54.64; resistance at 54.44, 54.305, 53.97; support at 54.775, 54.975, 55.31. rises above 200-DMA at 54.6327.
Goldman Sachs recommends staying long USD/INR.
Barclays: March trade deficit to improve to $ 13 b, from $15 on positive impact of INR fall .
GOLD MARKETS Gold spot at $1,575.16 up from $1,573.64 yesterday. Low of 0.2 % down to $1,570.67. Gold for June flat at $1,573.50. Spot silver flat at $27.345. FACTORS
Fed's. Bernanke "economy stronger now than 4 years ago, but far from where he would like ".
ETF fell for a fifth day to 2,433.125 MT, the lowest level since Aug.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS The JPY at multi-year lows versus the USD and EUR on Tuesday . USD up 99.60 with a 4 year high of 99.65 ( near 100) , EUR-JPY at 129.69 (Highest since January 2010.) . FACTORS
USD falls on Fed Bernanke's comment .
U.S. economy's overall net worth is about 550 % of GDP in 2011.
U.S. 1Q earnings Alcoa, 1Q adj. EPS of 11 c vs estimate 8 c, rev. $5.83 b vs est. $5.88 b.
CHINA : Exports exceeded forecasts by at least 7.5 % in December, January and February.
COPPER Copper climbed on Tuesday after signs of growth revival in Germany pushed up the EUR and buttressed the demand outlook for metals, while buying from top consumer China extended a steady albeit modest seasonal recovery. 3-month copper up 1.04 % to $7,527.50, extending gains of 0.6 % from the previous session. OIL Oil prices edged higher on Monday, lifted by gains in gasoline futures and strong selling of the spread between Brent crude and U.S. crude. Brent's premium to U.S. WTI futures settled at $11.30 , after narrowing to over $11 in afternoon trade, the lowest level since June.
INDIAN INR MARKETS INR strengthens 0.3% to 54.4250 , 1-Month at 7.8375% . 1-year IRS at 7.4150%; 5-year IRS at 7.1800% . 10 Year Benchmark at 7.875% . FACTORS
TECHNICAL: Breached pivot point at 54.5496 and first resistance at 54.4405, with next two resistances at 54.2959,54.0422; support at 54.6942, 54.8033, 55.057. INR is pulling away from lower Bollinger band at 54.7832
Morgan Stanley expects CPI inflation to reach 10.9% to around 7% by March 2014
RBS: Economy is currently working its way out of this debt accumulation.
Government to sell 50b INR of 91-day T-bills and 50b INR of 182- day T- bills today.
GOLD MARKETS Gold spot at $1,587.48 vs. $1,585.35 yesterday. It rose as high as $1,590.46, (Highest since April 2). The session saw a high of $1,588.64 . Gold June flat at $1,586.20. Cash silver dropped 0.2 % to $27.94, paring yesterday's 2.5 % rally that was the biggest since November. FACTORS
Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust dropped to 1,200.37 MT yesterday ( Low since June 2011.)
Gold ETF Holdings have lost 11 % in 2013 as prices fell 5.3 %.
China unexpectedly posted a trade deficit in March.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS JPY at 4-year low with strategists expecting JPY to break below the 100-yen level. JPY was steady at 99.05 after seeing a low of 99.67 , its weakest level since May 2009. FACTORS
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at a Yomiuri newspaper event on April 12.
CHF-EUR Cap in Sight as Options Signal Strength.
Gold priced in yen will reach a 33- year high.
UK: GDP rose 0.1 % in the first quarter after falling 0.3 % in the last three months of 2012.
FXCM biggest " Retail Currency Broker " With "Gain Capital Holding " purchase.
Chinese imports grew more than estimated.
HSBC starts direct trading between the yuan and AUD today.
COPPER Copper fell on Wednesday from near 2-week highs hit in the previous session, while markets eyed China trade data for signs of a recovery in demand in the top metals consumer. 3- Month copper slipped 0.34 % to $7,598.75 after gaining 2.4 % in the previous session. OIL Brent crude oil futures rose on Tuesday, posting their biggest gain since late December as a weak USD and tame Chinese inflation data drew investors to commodities. U.S. crude oil prices also rose, reaching $94.48 during the session and briefly exceeding the 50-day moving average of $94.44.
INDIAN INR MARKETS INR strengthens 0.1% to 54.56. 1-Month volatility drops 9 bps to 7.7475% . 1-year IRS at 7.4025%; 5-year IRS at 7.1800%. 10 Year benchmark at 7.95. FACTORS
Morgan Stanley CPI inflation to moderate from 10.9% currently to around 7% by March 2014,
Market shut for local holiday tomorrow
GOLD MARKETS Gold up 0.1 % to $1,560.75 after dropping 0.3 % to $1,553.65, (April 5 Low). Gold June at $1,560.30 after losing 1.8 % yesterday. Silver dropped 0.2 % to $27.58, following yesterday's 1.3 % decline. FACTORS
FOMC Minutes: US should begin tapering its QE later this year and stop it by year end
Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, fell to 1,183.53 MT (May 2010 Low)
Gold has dropped has dropped 6.8% 2013 as SPDR holdings shrank 12 %. 2013
Cyprus was told "keep commitments to sell excess gold"
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. yesterday cut forecasts for gold through 2014
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS JPY near 100, JPY at 99.79, having fallen to a low of 99.88. It has lost more than 7 % since the BOJ's radical stimulus program, which is bigger than the US QE. FACTORS
Yen Halts Decline Toward 100 as Japanese Sold Offshore Bonds.
CAD and AUD gain as banks turn to High Yield Currencies.
BOE's Miles Says 'Troubling' U.K. Outlook Justifies Stimulus.
Australia: Unemployment rate climbs to 3-Year High.
Kuroda Says BOJ Has Made All Possible Monetary Moves for Now.
COPPER Copper was steady on Thursday, supported by growing optimism over China's economic revival after lending surged in March, but consumers were reluctant to chase prices that hit two-week highs earlier in the week given global oversupply. 3- Month copper flat at $7, after closing down 0.66 % the session before. OIL Brent crude oil prices fell on Wednesday dragged down by a steep sell-off in U.S. gasoline futures after a U.S.government report showed an unexpected build in domestic gasoline inventories. Brent May crude settled down 44 cents at $105.79 , having retreated from a session high of $106.47. Brent's May contract expires on Monday. U.S. May crude settled up 44 cents at $94.64 having swung from $93.40 to $94.82.
INDIAN INR MARKETS INR weakens 0.3%, (April 4 low) to 54.6862. 1-month volatility increases 11 bps to 7.64%. 12-month NDFs drop 0.2% to 58.19. 1-year IRS at 7.3600%, 5-year IRS at 7.1350%. 10 Year Benchmark at 7.854%. FACTORS
Technical: Pivot at 54.5088; support 54.6525, 54.7800; 55.0514; resistance 53.9662, 54.2375, 54.3812; Touches 200-DMA 54.6170
FORECAST: WPI (inflation) at 6.27% in March (3 Year Low)
GOLD MARKETS Gold spot down 3.9 % to $1,425.75 and was trading at $1,444.07 in Asian hours . Prices fell 5 % on April 12, taking losses to more than 20 % since the lifetime high in September 2011. Gold June down 5.3 % to $1,422.20. The contract had fallen 4.1 % on April 12. Silver fell 6.8 % to $24.24 (November 2010 Low) FACTORS
Cyprus may sell its gold holdings to cover possible losses from emergency loans.
Gold ETF fell to 2,406.16 MT on April 12 down 6.9% in Quarter 1 , 2013
Goldman cut its three-month target to $1,530 from $1,615
Gold fell in spite of the USD Index, falling 0.3 %.
George Soros cut his stake in the SPDR gold fund by 55 %
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS The USD bought 98.36 yen, above Friday's session low of 98.08 yen, though still well shy of a four-year peak of 99.95 yen struck on trading platform EBS on Thursday. FACTORS
United States they would ensure Japan's policies were not aimed at weakening its currency.
Chinese GDP growth unexpectedly slows.
UK : Ernst & Young-GDP will rise 0.6 %, compared with a January forecast of 0.9 %.
Cyprus Issues 8th Decree on Capital Controls, Eases Some Rules.
COPPER Copper edged up on Monday on technical buying, but was within reach of 8-month lows after poor data spurred fears the U.S. recovery may be slowing and dragging on the global economy, with attention turning to a raft of Chinese data later in the day. 3-month copper had risen to $7,435.50- paring losses from the previous session. OIL Brent crude oil fell to a 9-month low near $101 on Friday as a broad investor sell-off in commodities triggered a fall as much as $3 , but pared losses in afternoon New York trade . Brent May fell more than $3 to hit a $101.09, the lowest prices since July. It recovered by more than $2 by the close, settling at $103.11 down $1.16 on the day. Brent has fallen by around 13 % since February as uncertainty about the strength of global demand has mounted. U.S. crude for May delivery lost $2.22 to settle at $91.29 , up from an earlier low of $90.27. The May contract closed below its 200-day moving average of $91.51, a key technical indicator watched by traders.
INDIAN INR MARKETS INR falls 0.1% to 54.0440. 1-month volatility rises 4 bps to 8.6175% . 12-month NDF at 57.223, 3-month forwards at 55.03 vs. 54.93 , 3-Month NDF at 54.78 vs. 54.74. 10Y Benchmark at 7.774% . 1-yr IRS at 7.2650% while 5-yr IRS at 7.0150%. FACTORS
Technical: INR 0.3% above 50 DMA at 54.2149.
Global funds increased holdings of debt by $247.1 m, to $34.62 b.
India's current-account deficit eased after Brent slipped 9 % and gold fell 11 %.
GOLD MARKETS Gold spot up 1.4 % to $1,423.10. Gold June up 1.8 % to $1,420, gaining for a 3rd day . Silver up 1.1 % to $23.504 rising for the first time in four days FACTORS
U.S. Mint has sold 167,500 ounces in April, vs. 62,000 ounces in March
Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society in Hong Kong, has run out of physical gold
India, gold imports may jump by 36 % in the 3-months through June .
GOLD ETF fell for the 14th day to 2,340.618 MT (Nov. 11 Low)
GOLD Funds increased net-long positions in gold by 9.8 % to 61,579 futures
One ounce of gold bought 60.8278 ounces of silver today (Sep. 2010 High)
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS USD climbed 0.3 % to 99.83 yen, having risen as high as 99.90 in early Asian trade on Monday. FACTORS
FORECAST : US GDP Q1 2013- 3.1 % vs. 0.4 % in Q4 2012.
Bank of Canada Governor said interest-rate increases depends on growth more than 2 %.
ECB's Knot Says Economic Data Show Risks 'On the Downside'.
Bank of England to buy another 80 billion pounds ($122 billion) of bonds.
PBOC's Zhou Says China Must Sacrifice Growth to Reform.
COPPER Copper retreated towards 18-month lows below $7,000 on Monday, as sluggish global growth tempers industrial demand and erodes investor appetite for metals. 3-month copper fell by 0.93 % to $6,935 extending losses from the previous session. OIL Brent crude near $100 on Monday, finding some support from bargain hunters after 3 straight weeks of lower prices . June Brent rose 28 cents to $99.93 up from the lowest level since July 2012 on Wednesday. U.S. crude for June delivery was up 29 cents to $88.30 a barrel after a 3.6 % loss last week.
INDIAN INR MARKETS INR falls for 2nd day by 0.4% to 54.35 . 1-month volatility at 8.65% . 3-month forwards at 55.33 USD, vs. 55.15. 3-Month NDF at 55.12 vs. 54.93. 10 Year Benchmark at 7.750%. 1-year IRS at 7.25% . 5 year IRS at 7.00%. FACTORS
Technical: Breaking pivot support at 54.2858 with next 2 supports at 54.4254, 54.7454; pivot point at 54.1054; resistance at 53.9658, 53.7854, 53.4654. Pulling away from 50 DMA at 54.2379.
Global funds increased holdings of debt by $630 m, to $35.25 b .
China PMI fell to 50.5 in April from 51.6 in March, holding above the dividing line of 50.
Purchases of existing homes in the U.S. fell to 4.92 m annual rate vs. 4.95 m in Feb.
Markets will be shut tomorrow for the Mahavir Jayanti celebrations.
Oil trade (all-time high ) 6.3 % of GDP in 2012,
Gold trade (all -time high) 3 % of GDP.
GOLD MARKETS Gold rose 0.3 % to $1,430.52 . Gold rose for 5 days with a high of 1,439.30. Prices are 8.4 % below the $1,561.45 close on April 11, before a 2-day, 14 % drop through April 15. Gold June rose 0.5 % to $1,428.30, gaining for a 4th day. Cash silver dropped 0.5 % to $23.324. FACTORS
Gold has fallen 15 % in 2013
Gold touched a 2-year low of $1,321.95 on April 16
U.S. Mint has sold 175,000 ounces in April, Vs. 62,000 ounces sold in March.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS USD did not reach 100 yen due to option positions . USD at 99.35 yen, down from Monday's high near 99.90.Traders said there is demand to buy dollar/yen on dips and a clear break above 100 will pave the way for a retest of the April 2009 high around 101.45. FACTORS
Yen Gains as China Manufacturing Growth Slows.
CAD Gains Versus Most Major Peers as Crude Oil Rises.
U.K. refuses Pound for Independent Scotland Citing Euro Lessons.
GBP gains vs. Euro on opinion that U.K. avoided another "Recession".
Yuan Advances to Near 19-Year High as PBOC Raises Reference Rate.
COPPER Copper slipped on Tuesday and was near a 18-month low on sluggish prospects for global growth, with traders waiting for China's first economic report for the second quarter for clues on demand . 3-month had slipped 0.36 % to $6,910 extending losses from the previous session when it closed down 0.8 %
OIL Brent crude rose for a 3rd session to top $100 on Monday, lifted by gains in the U.S. stock market. Brent June rose 74 cents to close at $100.39 , down from a high of $101.04. WTI May was up 75 cents to $88.76 after reaching a high of $89.13.
INDIAN INR MARKETS INR falls for 2nd day by 0.4% to 54.35 . 1-month volatility at 8.65% . 3-month forwards at 55.33 USD, vs. 55.15. 3-Month NDF at 55.12 vs. 54.93. 10 Year Benchmark at 7.750%. 1-year IRS at 7.25% . 5 year IRS at 7.00%. FACTORS Technical: Breaking pivot support at 54.2858 with next 2 supports at 54.4254, 54.7454; pivot point at 54.1054; resistance at 53.9658, 53.7854, 53.4654. Pulling away from 50 DMA at 54.2379. Global funds increased holdings of debt by $630 m, to $35.25 b . China PMI fell to 50.5 in April from 51.6 in March,...
INDIAN INR MARKETS INR advanced 0.2 % to 55.03 ,it had touched 55.1350 yesterday. 1-month volatility, fell 5 BP to 8.43 %. 3-month forwards at 55.95 vs. 56.04. 3-Month NDF were at 55.82 vs. 55.88. FACTORS
Inflation eased to a 41-month low (4.89 % in April)
Global funds bought $883 million of shares last week
Global holdings of ll debt rose to a record $38 Bln on May 17.
Auction of $1 Bln of sovereign debt-purchase permits was oversubscribed yesterday.
Current account deficit rose to 5% of GDP (Record High)
Bernanke : 22nd May : U.S. economic outlook for a Joint Economic Committee of Congress.
GOLD MARKETS Gold fell on Tuesday for the 8th of 9 sessions. Gold had fallen 0.3 % to $1,388.36 in Asian hours . Gold gained 2.6 % on Monday after a seven-session slide to cross the 1400$ mark .Gold futures gained 0.2 % to $1,386.90. Silver was down 1.4 % at $22.61. It hit a session low of $22.41, not far off the 2-1/2 year low of $20.84 on Monday, when it eventually closed 3 % higher. FACTORS
Gold fell as the USD appreciated
Opinion: Fed may soon stop its monthly $85-Bln bond purchases.
Holdings of the largest ETF, the iShares Silver Trust have fallen to their lifetime low
SPDR Gold Trust holdings down to 1,031.50 MT (4 year low)
Physical demand in India, down after a rise of 138 % in April.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS USD rose 0.2 % to 102.69 JPY after economics minister Akira Amari said he hoped the JPY settles at a level justified by fundamentals and where the impact on imports and exports is balanced. GBP rose 0.1 % to $1.5289, paring gains after earlier climbing to as high as $1.5368 FACTORS JPY Falls Versus Peers After Amari Remarks U.S. Faces Downgrade in 2013 Without Budget Deal, Moody's Warns Pound Gains From Six-Week Low Versus USD; Gilts Decline COPPER MARKETS 3-month copper slipped 0.41 % to $7,369, reversing gains of more than 1 % from the previous session. FACTORS
Opinion of slowing demand growth in China
Key factory figures this week from US .
OIL MARKETS WTI June at $96.89 up 18 cents, . The contract expires today. The volume of all contracts traded was 18 % below the 100-day average. The more active July future rose 20 cents to $97.13. Front-month prices increased 69 cents yesterday, or 0.7 %, to $96.71, the highest close since April 2. Brent July up 23 cents to $105.03. Brent was at a premium of $7.90 to WTI futures. FACTORS
Forecast to show the first back-to-back decrease in stockpiles this year. (800,000 barrels)
U.S. Memorial Day on May 27 marks the start of the nation's peak driving period.
U.S. refineries operated at 88.4 % of capacity in the week of May 17, up 0.4 %.
Syrian government forces started an offensive against rebels.
Middle East accounted for 33 % of global oil output in 2011.
[justify]INR weakened 0.6 % to 55.8100 and reached 55.8787, the lowest level since Nov. 26. 1-month volatility, rose 16 BP to 8.63 %. 3-month forwards at 56.80 Vs. 56.53 yesterday. NDF 3-Month were at 56.76 vs. 56.46. 10 year benchmark at 7.41 % .[/justify]
FACTORS
INR fell to a 6-month low after the Fed signaled a reduction in stimulus
Global Funds net at $14.2 Bln. into Indian shares.
PM 's Economic Council estimates : current-account deficit at to 5.1 % of GDP.
INR dropped 2.4 % this quarter, after gaining 1.3 % in the prior 3 months.
GOLD
MARKETS
[justify]Gold spot at $1,387.99 after rising 0.8 %. The price reached a more than 2-year low of $1,321.95 on April 16.[/justify]
FACTORS
Global ETP assets fell 10.27 MT to 2,177.12 (Down 454.8 MT in 2013 )
Contraction more than the combined inflows in 2011 and 2012, ( 446.67 MT)
ETP holdings have fallen 17 % in 2013
Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, fell to 1,023.08 tons yesterday (Feb 2009 low)
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
MARKETS
[justify]USD at a 3-year high against a basket of majors on Thursday. USD index at 84.381 after gaining more than 0.5 % on Wednesday to reach a peak of 84.422, ( July 2010 high) . Against the yen, it rose 0.1 %to 103.23, near a 4-1/2 year high of 103.74.[/justify]
FACTORS
USD Index Touches Almost 3-Year High Before Jobs, Home Data
Bernanke said yesterday: The Fed may taper monthly bond purchases
Chinese manufacturing is contracting PMI goes below 50
CAD Falls to 1-Year Low as Bernanke Hints at Tapering
BOJ Prepared to Adjust Bond Purchases After Yield Jump:
BOJ Governor Kuroda -"central bank will conduct its debt purchases in a flexible manner"
COPPER
MARKETS
Copper declined the most in a week , it fell 1.8 % to $7,340. Relative strength index 51.
FACTORS
Metals sank on disappointing Chinese manufacturing data.
The USD rose against most of its major peers
OIL
MARKETS
[justify]WTI Futures fell 0.8 % losing 2 % yesterday, ( May 1 low) . WTI July fell 76 cents to $93.52 . The volume of all contracts traded was 7 % below the 100-day average. Brent July fell 75 cents, to $101.85. Brent was at a premium of $8.31 to WTI.[/justify]
FACTORS
Gasoline inventories rose 3 million barrels last week,
China's PMI dropped to 49.6 for May, the lowest since October
INDIAN INR MARKETS
[justify] INR drops 0.2% to 55.7350, heading for 8th day of losses, longest stretch since November 2011. 1-month volatility slides 11 bps at 8.9925% (2013 Average 9.0126%) . 1-month NDF climbs 0.2% to 59.05; 12-month NDF rises 0.2% to 59.07. Overnight inter-bank rate at 7.30% . 10 Year benchmark At 7.11[/justify] FACTORS
Technical: Pivot point at 55.6200; support at 55.7875, 55.9300, 56.2400; resistance at 55.4775, 55.3100, and 55.0000. USD/INR's 14-day RSI climbs to 75.7, above overbought level, and upper Bollinger band is at 55.9487
5% withholding tax on interest accrued on Indian debt for global investors
GOLD MARKETS
[justify]Spot gold had dropped 0.03 percent, or 36 cents, to $1,385.19 a not far from two-year lows of $1,321.35 seen in mid-April. Gold is headed for its fifth straight monthly drop. [/justify] FACTORS
Italy failed to meet its maximum target at a debt sale.
Greek poll showed gains for parties opposed to austerity.
Japan's industrial production rose less than forecast in April.
Correlation: Gold and the USD at - 0.301, compared with - 0.169 in October.
Russia and Kazakhstan expanded their gold reserves for a 7th month.
Russian holdings, ( 7th-largest) at 990 MT up 3.4 % in 2013 and up 8.5 % in 2012.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS
[justify]The USD dipped against the JPY in early Asian trade. USD at 101.13 falling 0.1% from Friday (low of of 100.68) down 1.9 % in the week. [/justify] FACTORS
BOJ Governor Kuroda "nation could cope with rising interest rates." . JPY rises
Yuan at a 19-year high. PBOC fixing up 0.09 % : 6.1811 CNY / USD.
Nobel Prize economist Joseph Stiglitz said premature for the Fed to reduce stimulus .
FORECAST: US Consumer Spend no change in April (0.2% rise in March)
U.K. House Prices Rise Most in 6 Years on London Demand (0.4%)
COPPER MARKETS
[justify]Copper 3M fell 0.01 % to $7,299 . Copper July was flat at $3.2945 a pound. Copper September fell as 1.3 % to $8,523 a MT.[/justify] FACTORS
US: Orders for durable goods increased more than forecast in April
EZ: German business confidence increased in May for the first time in 3 months
China's President Xi Jinping said "won't sacrifice the environment to ensure short-term growth"
Profits of nonferrous metals mining and smelting companies declined 3.5 % and 8.3 % in 2013
OIL MARKETS
[justify] WTI July fell 92 cents and was at $93.23. The volume of all contracts traded was 23 % below the 100-day average. Brent July fell 54 cents to $102.10 . Brent was at a premium of $8.81 to WTI .[/justify] FACTORS
OPEC, to keep its output target unchanged .
OPEC's production at 30.5 million barrels a day in April.
Hedge funds raised bullish bets on WTI to the highest level in more than a year
Net -long positions, at 231,794 futures and options (March 2012 High)
INDIAN INR MARKETS
[justify]INR fell 0.2 % to 55.675 (Low of 56.0150 May 23). INR has declined 3.4 % in May. 1-month volatility, fell 15 BP. to 8.99 %. 3-month forwards at 56.50 Vs. 56.46 . 3-Month NDF at 56.56 Vs. 56.45.[/justify] FACTORS
US: Forecast: consumer sentiment highest level since Nov.
US: S&P/Case-Shiller Index property values in 20 cities rose most since April 2006
RBI: Lenders cannot make loans using units of gold exchange-traded funds as collateral.
RBI: May 13: Imports of Gold by banks on a consignment basis to only for exporters.
Global funds bought a net $14.5 Bln. of Indian shares in 2013
GOLD MARKETS
[justify]Spot gold fell 0.5 % to $1,387.18 trading at $1,389.97 in Asia. Gold down 17 % in 2013 . Gold August at $1,389.30 vs. $1,387.50 on May 24. Silver declined 0.9 % to $22.4805, heading for a 4th monthly decline.[/justify] FACTORS
USD Index up 0.1 %.
Shanghai Gold Exchange: Cash Gold at a 2-week low of 10,094 kg yesterday.
Hong Kong, delivery premiums down to $3 vs. $5 to $6 last week.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS
[justify]USD rose 0.9 % to 101.86 /JPY and rose 0.2 % to $1.2904 /EUR. JPY fell 0.7 % to 131.42 /EUR . USD Index rose 0.2 % to 83.889. Markets in the U.S. and U.K. were closed yesterday for public holidays.[/justify] FACTOR
U.S. FORECAST: consumer sentiment up to 71 (May) vs. 68.1 in April (Nov. 2012 High)
S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in U.S. up 10.2 % March ( April 2006 High)
BOJ deposits for financial companies will rise to a record 72.4 trillion yen ($711 Bln.)
BoJ to buy 7 trillion yen of Gov.t bonds every month to end 15 years of deflation.
FX OTC trading rose 30%, in May vs. previous month.
COPPER MARKETS
[justify]Copper 3- months fell 1.1 % to $7,220 and was trading at $7,237 in Asia . Copper July fell 0.7 % to $3.2730 a pound. Copper September declined 1 % to $8,491 per ton.[/justify] FACTORS
China GDP was 7.7 % in Q1 vs. 7.9 % in Q4 2012 , POBC target at 7.5 %.
Copper up 2.6 % in May (1st gain in since January).
McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.'s Grasberg mine stopped mining after a tunnel collapse.
OIL MARKETS
[justify]WTI July fell 92 cents to $93.23 ,was trading at $93.55 in Asia . Brent July rose 2 cents to $102.64. Brent at a premium of $9.09 to WTI. The spread was $8.85 yesterday.[/justify]
[justify]FACTORS[/justify]
UAE said global demand will stay "relatively weak."
OPEC is forecast to keep its supply target unchanged on May 31.
Current prices are "suitable and fair," said Al Mazrouei, the U.A.E.'s energy minister.
Global consumption about 800,000 barrels a day more than in 2012 : UAE Energy Minister.
Crude at $100 a barrel is a "reasonable" price :Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi
Hedge funds long on Brent by 16,460 contracts in the week ended May 21.
INDIAN INR MARKETS
[justify]INR weakened 0.3 % to 56.155 . It touched 56.1850 earlier, the weakest level since Aug. 3, and has dropped 4.2 % this month. 1-month volatility raised 2 BP and was at 8.80 %. 3-month forwards traded at 57.06 compared with 56.87 yesterday. USD Index , gained 0.7 % this week.[/justify] FACTORS
Global funds investments in debt at a record of $38.5 Bln on May 21
Current account deficit was at an all time high of 5 % of GDP (official estimates.)
GOLD MARKETS
[justify]Gold climbed 0.7 % to $1,390.30 and was at $1,387 in Asian hours, down 6.1 % in May. Gold fell 1.5 % yesterday, touching $1,373.63. Gold August was up 0.5 % to $1,386. It is down 5.8 % in May for a second monthly decline. Silver was little changed at $22.36, 26 % lower this year.[/justify] FACTORS
Assets in ETPs dropped 0.2 % to 2,154.2 MT yesterday.
Shanghai Gold Exchange's spot volumes rose to 15,641 kilograms.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS USD Index, rose 0.3 % to 84.349. USD flat at $1.2845 /EUR after rising 0.6 % yesterday. The yen traded at 131.57 per euro from 131.59 and was little changed at 102.42 per USD. The Aussie fell 0.8 % to 95.40 U.S. cents, after dropping to 95.36, the weakest since Oct. 5, 2011. FACTORS
US: 1st Quarter GDP Tomorrow (ESTIMATE 2.5%)
ESTIMATE: 2013 GDP GROWTH: U.S. - 2 %, Japan 1.4 %, Euro-Zone minus 0.6%
CAD Falls to 1-Year Low on opinion that Fed will slow down QE3
Swiss Franc Falls as Investors Pursue Risky Assets
COPPER MARKETS
[justify]Copper fell, paring its first monthly gain in four months as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. said it can start open-pit production at Indonesia's Grasberg mine after an accident halted operations. Copper 3 Months fell 0.2 % to $7,306. Relative strength index 50.[/justify] FACTORS
Asian stocks rose for a second day after improving U.S. Data
China's steel output rose by 20.09 million tons in the first 4 months of 2013
Japan's output of copper and copper- alloy fabricated products rose 2.9 % in April
OIL MARKETS
[justify]WTI July at $94.77 down 24 cents,. The volume of all futures traded was 39 % below the 100-day average.. Prices are up 1.4 % this month after a 3.9 % loss in April. Brent July down 16 cents at $104.07. Brent at a premium of $9.30 to WTI[/justify] FACTORS
FORECAST: Crude supplies slid for a 3rd week, the longest run of declines this year. (750,000)
OPEC will maintain its production quota at 30 million barrels a day.
