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Macroeconomic Analysis

  • #661
  • Oct 23, 2012 2:07am Oct 23, 2012 2:07am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about F.D.I.C. Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Failures and Assistance Transactions of all Institutions by Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) for the United States and Other Areas
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2012-10-23

Assistance Transactions of all Institutions for the United States and Other Areas & Failures of all Institutions for the United States and Other Areas
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...-23,2012-10-23

Failures and Assistance Transactions of all Institutions for the United States and Other Areas
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2012-10-23

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
  • #662
  • Oct 25, 2012 4:29am Oct 25, 2012 4:29am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about Venture Capitalist Confidence Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖Previous july 2011 study.

These indicators (about in phase vs. underlyings) have been proposed by Dr. Mark V. Cannice in order to study the opinions of professional venture capitalists, in their estimation of the highgrowth venture entrepreneurial environment in the geographical or industrial area of interest, over the next 6-18 months.

The Silicon (= U.S.) Indicator shows the following graphical elements:
◀ curve above the main & dark-red descending rectangle in 2010;
◀ full-ascending test of the key horizontal binary-levels (lows of 2004/2005/2006);
◀ prices inside an ascending dark-blue rectangle, 2009-start, now in definitive down breaks (first signal in 2011; second signal in 2012);
◀ top of 2007 (I quarter) shows an important anticipatory behaviour vs. underlyings tops (IV quarter).
The indicator shows a new (secondary ???) phase in bearish status, from the descending double tops of 2011 & 2012.
A continuation-bear below the binary horizontal levels is a very dangerous sign, for a possible full test of the descending red rectangle (indicator SellOff below the lows of 2010).
Only well above the binary levels of 2004/2005/2006 lows, there will be an important reversal in bullish status of this curve.
This indicator shows anticipatory behaviour vs. underlyings both on tops and on lows.

The Chinese Indicator shows the following graphical elements:
◀ curve shows a side-array, with an important double-tops 2006/2010, and an imperfect double-(descending)-lows in 2008/2012;
◀ curve shows also a descending rectangle 2005/2008, with up-break;
◀ in 2011/2012 prices are in full-descending test of the previous descending rectangle;
◀ lows of 2008 shows an interesting anticipatory behavior vs. lows of underlyings;
Indicator is in continuation-side status and is in full ascending test of the lows of 2007.
If prices go above the lows of 2007, there will be a continuation-bull of indicator toward the new descending line from 2010 top.
If prices remain below the lows of 2007, there will be an high probability of a new test of 2008-lows.
This indicator shows anticipatory behaviour vs. underlying key-lows.

It is very interesting to compare the arrows between U.S. & China indicators, in order to recognize the next reversal.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣


1Y spot view of Silicon & China Venture Capitalist Sentiment Indicators.
Complete view of Silicon and China Venture Capitalist Confidence Indicators
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #663
  • Oct 28, 2012 2:52pm Oct 28, 2012 2:52pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about U.S. Federal Debt Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖Global Projection of General Gov.Gross Debts.
❖Global Debts.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...graph_id=94524

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...graph_id=94523

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...graph_id=94525

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
  • #664
  • Oct 29, 2012 11:53am Oct 29, 2012 11:53am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about € vs. Au$.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Notes on the chart (linear & daily ema-format).
Pink area as possible GraphicalƉetonator.
Multiple 10mo. average as yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #665
  • Oct 29, 2012 12:21pm Oct 29, 2012 12:21pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about € vs. Nz$.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Notes on the chart (linear & daily ema-format).
Pink area as possible first GraphicalƉetonator (second as horizontal level at 1.722 about (2007-lows).
Multiple 10mo. average as yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #666
  • Edited Oct 30, 2012 12:12pm Oct 29, 2012 1:11pm | Edited Oct 30, 2012 12:12pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about € vs. ZAR.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Notes on the chart (linear & daily ema-format).
GraphicalContest between bullish C&H vs. bearish MultiTops (see possible targets).
Pink area as local GraphicalƉetonator.
Multiple 10mo. average as yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 921 KB
  • #667
  • Oct 30, 2012 12:08pm Oct 30, 2012 12:08pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about € vs. Cd$.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Notes on the chart (linear & daily ema-format).
Multiple 10mo. average as yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg Size: 1.0 MB
  • #668
  • Oct 30, 2012 12:10pm Oct 30, 2012 12:10pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about € vs. GBP.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Notes on the chart (linear & daily ema-format).
Multiple 10mo. average as yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg5.jpg Size: 977 KB
  • #669
  • Oct 30, 2012 5:00pm Oct 30, 2012 5:00pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about € vs. ￥.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

Notes on the chart (linear & daily ema-format).
Multiple 10mo. average as yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 792 KB
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  • #670
  • Oct 31, 2012 11:39am Oct 31, 2012 11:39am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about € vs. SwF.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖Previous chart of 2011.

Notes on the chart (linear & daily ema-format).
Multiple 10mo. average as yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma.
Giant multiple-tops (gray area: 1996-2011 about) with a completed target.
Alert on the III rectangle, because of preliminar bearish evolution. Rectangles I & II in full descending test !!!

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 887 KB
  • #671
  • Nov 2, 2012 11:44am Nov 2, 2012 11:44am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about € vs. US$ & €-Index.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖Previous studies: july 2012 -- may 2012 -- july 2011 -- may 2010.
❖Previous Forex pairs: € / SwF -- € / ￥ -- € / GBP -- € / Cd$ -- € / ZAR -- € / Nz$ -- € / Au$.

Notes on the chart (linear & daily ema-format).
Multiple 10mo. average as yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma.

Some oscillators about €-ETF FXE:
x) RSI, MACD, RoC;
x) OBV, Ult.Osc., DMI;
x) Slow Volat., Slow Stock.,
x) Monthly.
x) January Rule & December Rule.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

http://www.finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?...74568832055000
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=099741&p=w1
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #672
  • Nov 2, 2012 12:43pm Nov 2, 2012 12:43pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about CISS Indicator & Global Risk Aversion Indicator.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖ Other complex financial stress indicators.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #673
  • Nov 4, 2012 5:25am Nov 4, 2012 5:25am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about % of stocks avove its 200 simp.mov.aver. & Bullish% Indicator.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖Previous studies: july.2012 -- sep.2012.

In this post there are some breadth indicators (for S&P100, Nyse Comp., Nd/Comp.) as follows: A) % of stocks avove its 200 simp.mov.aver. & B) Bullish% Indicator.
These indicators are about ''in phase'' vs. underlyings. Charts are in daily & linear long-term ema-format.

S&P100.
A). A1) Key lows & tops of chart are in 2009 & 2010 (trend-less). A2) Divergent action on tops & lows from 2010. A3) Main trend from 2009 is bullish, with the curve-action from 2010 like a flag post-SkyRocket 2009 !!! A4) Short term shows bullish array of main ema, and values well above 50-level and in continuation-test of 70-level !!
B). B1) Key lows & tops of chart are in 2004 & 2009 (side-bearish trend). B2) Divergent action on tops & lows from 2009. B3) Main trend from 2009 is bullish, with the curve-action from 2010 like a flag post-SkyRocket 2009 !!! B4) Short term shows bullish array of main ema, and values well above 50-level and in continuation-test of 70-level !!

NYSE Comp.
A). A1) Key lows & tops of chart are in 2004 & 2009 (side-bearish trend). A2) Divergent action on tops & lows from 2010. A3) Main trend from 2009 is bullish, with the curve-action from 2010 like a ZigZag A/B/C/ post-SkyRocket 2009, with very deep low in 2011 !!! A4) Short term shows bullish array of main ema, and values well above 50-level but below the 70-level !!
B). B1) Key lows & tops of chart are in 2008 & 2010 (trend-less), but there is a long term ascending channel (dottod-blue) with two important breaks at the base level (yellow circles). B2) Divergent action on tops & lows from 2009. B3) Main trend from 2008 is bullish, with the curve-action from 2010 like a ZigZag A/B/C/ post-SkyRocket 2009 !!! B4) Short term shows bullish array of main ema, and values well above 50-level and in continuation-test of 70-level !!

Nd/Comp.
A). A1) Key lows & tops of chart are in 2003 & 2009 (side-bearish trend). A2) Divergent action on tops & lows from 2009. A3) Main trend from 2009 is bullish, with the curve-action from 2009/2010 like a ZigZag A/B/C/ post-SkyRocket 2009, with very deep low in 2011 !!! A4) Short term shows bullish array of main ema in continuation-test of 50-level !!
B). B1) Key lows & tops of chart are in 2004 & 2008 (side-bearish trend). B2) Divergent action on tops & lows from 2009. B3) Main trend from 2008 is bullish, with the curve-action from 2009/2010 like a ZigZag A/B/C/ post-SkyRocket 2009, with very deep low in 2011 !!! B4) Short term shows bullish array of main ema in side-array a little above 50-level !!

These indicators shows a similar pattern.
Only with curves above the bold red descending line (top-divergences 2009/2010-2012; see green dot) there will be an important bullish leg for underlyings.
A first important alert for a possible bearish evolution of indicators is the loss of thin red descending line with direction toward the 50-level (see some set-up).
The indicators of Nd/Comp. shows the structure with an increased risk of bearish evolution. A possible bearish ema-knot of Nd/Comp. A-indicator is a very dangerous sign.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #674
  • Nov 4, 2012 6:15am Nov 4, 2012 6:15am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about ⒶⒶⓅⓁ.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...L%3AUS&img=pnghttp://i1-news.softpedia-static.com/...ttsburgh-2.jpg
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

► REUT-Fin.Data -- Fin.Data -- FINVIZ-Fin.Data -- BARCH-Fin.Data -- GOOG Fin.Data -- ZACK Fin.Data -- Y-Fin.Data -- SEC -- Owners -- Insiders -- Short-data -- Options -- Analysts -- NEWSbyGOOG.

► Previous charts/studies: 2011; apr.2012; apr.2012; apr.2012 (long-term waves); mag.2012; sep.2012; oct.2012.
► RSI, MACD, RoC -- Slow Stock., DMI, Slow Volat. -- Monthly candles-format -- Monthly ema-format.

The previous alert of september has a gain of more 120$. There are some important alerts:
a) according to post of september, the hyperbolic stock has showed a full-ascending test of some main & hard ascending lines;
b) in september there was the near test of the 720$-level (a critical target for the company);
c) important & hard divergences on some (attached) indicators/oscillators;
d) descending full-test of 10mo. moving averages;
e) triple 10X-target from 1985 (see the long-term wave structure);
f) first time (from 2003) of correction well below the previous top (see attached chart of prices).

Next key-levels are:
Up) apr.2012 tops;
Dw) 10mo. mov.aver.; lows of may-2012

See also this interesting chart.
Watch also the January Rule and the December Rule for AAPL.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #675
  • Nov 7, 2012 4:19am Nov 7, 2012 4:19am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about the models for evaluation of US probability of recession.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖Previous 2011 studies/charts: A -- B -- C.

In this post there are some indicators about models for evaluation of US probability of recession.
These indicators are about '' contrarian'' vs. underlyings or ''in-phase'' vs. probability of US recession.
Charts are the followings:
A.) complex evaluation of US financial crisis probability, by US Gov.Bond yield spread, Gold [Au], and CPI (two frames);
B.) N.Y. FED. model for the evaluation of US probability of recession, based on the spread between 10y vs. 3mo. Gov.Bond Yeld;
C.) simple average of US evaluation of recession by indicators of OECD & NBER.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 947 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 1.1 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 355 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 532 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg Size: 291 KB
  • #676
  • Nov 7, 2012 6:19am Nov 7, 2012 6:19am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about the models for evaluation of US probability of recession.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there is the Piger indicator about models for evaluation of US probability of recession.
This indicators (from University of Oregon economist Jeremy Piger) is based on the measure of the probability of recession in the United States (from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model) from 4 variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales.
This indicator is about '' contrarian'' vs. underlyings or ''in-phase'' vs. probability of US recession.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=95657

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
  • #677
  • Edited 4:40am Nov 8, 2012 4:39am | Edited 4:40am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about the models for evaluation of US probability of recession.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖Previous 2011 averaged curve & triple curve.

In this post there are the curves of Gov.Bond Yield spread (see notes below) for evaluation of US probability of recession.
These indicators are about '' contrarian '' vs. underlyings or '' in-phase '' vs. probability of US recession, with interesting anticipatory behaviours.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠™║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 803 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 574 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 707 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 551 KB
  • #678
  • Edited Nov 9, 2012 2:57am Nov 8, 2012 10:52am | Edited Nov 9, 2012 2:57am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about the models for evaluation of US probability of recession.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖Previous 2011 study.

In this post there is a complex, personal, and experimental evaluation of some components of US recession probability, by means of one-curve (d & r -spread format; d-spread in linear; r-spread in eBase.Log; frame in long & mid-short terms from 1995) derived from 10y, 2y and 3mo. US Gov.Bond yields.
These indicators are about '' contrarian '' vs. underlyings or '' in-phase '' vs. probability of US recession, with interesting anticipatory behaviours (see markers).

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 549 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 462 KB
  • #679
  • Nov 9, 2012 3:26am Nov 9, 2012 3:26am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about the models for evaluation of US probability of recession.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
❖Previous 2011 studies: A -- B -- C -- D -- E -- F.
❖Previous 2012 studies: A -- B -- C -- D.

In this post there is a complex, personal, and experimental evaluation of some components of US recession probability, by means of one-curve (d & r -spread format; d-spread in linear; r-spread in eBase.Log; frame in long & mid-short terms from 2000) derived from 30y, 10y, 2y, 1y and 6&3mo. US Gov.Bond yields.
These indicators are about '' contrarian '' vs. underlyings or '' in-phase '' vs. probability of US recession.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣

NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 516 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 364 KB
  • #680
  • Edited 1:37pm Nov 9, 2012 1:22pm | Edited 1:37pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about Personal Misery Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some sincretic curves in order to obtain an evaluation of the Misery Indicator for the US population.
The curves are the followings (some notes on the charts):
A.1. & A.2.) Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers of All Items (two format), Civilian Unemployment Rate, Mean Duration of Unemployment;
B.1 & B.2.1.) Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers of All Items, Civilian Unemployment Rate, Mean Duration of Unemployment, Real Personal Income, Industrial Production Index;
B.2.2.) Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers of All Items, Civilian Unemployment Rate, Mean Duration of Unemployment, Real Personal Income, Industrial Production Index, Real Retail and Food Services Sales;
C.) Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers of All Items, Civilian Unemployment Rate, Mean Duration of Unemployment, Median Number of Months on Sales Market for Newly Completed Homes.

Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/♪ ❖ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ❖
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ►►♥█║▌│││█║℠║▌║▌▌║█❤◀◀
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-ℬunda €MP¥R€ ❣❣❣
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 401 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 322 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 394 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 276 KB
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