Martingale always work, you only need infinity money, when you don't have it - the game is more difficulty.
Martingale, Anti-martingale, and Compounding 40 replies
Martingale, Reverse Martingale, Modified Martingale, Maths 1 reply
How to change this Martingale to Reverse Martingale ? 3 replies
Martingale vs. Non Martingale (Simplified RoR vs Profit) 1 reply
Does this simple system by Richard Donchian really work? 134 replies
DislikedIn principle the more money you have and the lower your starting lot size, the more succesful it will be, it also depends on your trading systems win/loss. If your max losing streak for your system is 10 straight loses and you have enough money to double up 20 or 30 times, then I would say that is a pretty minimal risk. Then again, sooner or later you will run into that 1 long streak that could wipe ur account, be it 1 month or 100 years.Ignored
DislikedMartingale only works on certain pairs, definitely not for EUR/USD since it can travel up down 1000-2000 pips at any crazy period within 1-3 months and may take 1 whole year to return. If EUR/USD was at 1.4 and u buy it until it drop 1.2 will martingale work? obviously no, martingale is a form of money management betting.
...[snip]....
a simple review of martingale failure would be in pairs like eur/usd, eur/aud, gbp/aud or even jpy pairs which can move from north to south. Accumulation of negative pips will end up in more damage and emotions...Ignored
DislikedMartingale works but only if you take very low risk and do not use a x2 factor. The EA i'm using allready made 26% in less than 3 months with a limited risk (live account) and on demo it made an accout go from 20k to 85k in 18 months with only one occasion where a potential -30% loss could have occured (which did not) With 80k and low risk it just cannot burnIgnored
DislikedAnd that right there is the problem with Martingale: The longer it works, the more distant your fear of the account blowing up becomes.. then when it finally does, you never would have expected it.
True blow out; losing more than you ever expected to lose.
Anyone can turn a profit doubling down, but it's what's lost when things don't work out that matter most.
In your demo, you saw it grow from 20k to 85k, but that doesn't do anything but give you 2 more levels of martingale to bet before the account vanishes.. only two. The nature of the betting...Ignored
DislikedThat last statement basically removes most of your currency pairs, as all pairs have their tsunami moments. It largely depends on what range you want the grid to survive.
Prices don't move straight up or straight down. They go in "waves" up and down. Often times with bar charts, we forget all the movement within the bars. That is what counts the most.
Don't see why you could not use martingale on other pairs. But it is best to use smaller lot sizes and restrict how many levels you use.Ignored
DislikedPast history are not an indication of the future results, i have done martingale before and i know its deadly point, being in negative drawdown is really unhealthy.
The biggest mistake of martingale will be not willing to be a loser early and tries to protect profits accumulation which later endangers the account.
Like i said it should be work on some pairs only, most major pairs or even exotic pairs are actually trend pairs, they do move one point to another, depends what timeframe u are looking at.
Like jack pointed out, martingale system...Ignored
DislikedIt is true that the unknown variable is how far prices will go. We use the past to get ideas of the typical ranges. We can prepare with a best effort for tsunamis that occur once in a while, but we must still enter the market in order to have the opportunity to earn profits.
Martingale, position sized 'correctly' (within reasonable expected ranges) can produce massive returns in a short period of time.
I've seen that all strategies, particularly aggressive strategies usually you want to have real profit target and then use the betting strategy...Ignored
DislikedMartingale works but only if you take very low risk and do not use a x2 factor. The EA i'm using allready made 26% in less than 3 months with a limited risk (live account) and on demo it made an accout go from 20k to 85k in 18 months with only one occasion where a potential -30% loss could have occured (which did not) With 80k and low risk it just cannot burnIgnored
DislikedAnd that right there is the problem with Martingale: The longer it works, the more distant your fear of the account blowing up becomes.. then when it finally does, you never would have expected it. .......Ignored
DislikedGood post (as always).
Folks, ignore Jack's wisdom and experience at your peril.
I've posted on Martingale many times before (see myth #12 here, for example); no point in repeating myself.
There's a great video here on building a risk model. As the presenter says at one point "Martingale is beyond retarded". Harsh but true.
Bottom line is that you can't argue with the underlying math....Ignored
DislikedDon't know why so many people insist that something is not possible. It's all how you apply it. I explained a few post earlier how you can take advantage of more aggressive risk models in a structured format. Then you can test different ranges and position sizing to see what is most likely to be successful instead of just taking someone's word for it.
Careless martingale-ing (or any risk management technique) will ultimately fail.Ignored
DislikedDon't know why so many people insist that something is not possible. It's all how you apply it. I explained a few post earlier how you can take advantage of more aggressive risk models in a structured format.Ignored
DislikedAbout MM not being able to alter expectancy: it's not impossible because of people's insistence. It's impossible because of the underlying math. The XLS attached to this post demonstrates that no matter what MM is employed, overall expectancy remains unaffected.
A more aggressive risk model increases both trade return and risk in like proportion. It also increases risk of ruin exponentially. This can easily be demonstrated mathematically, just like 2+2=4.
There are a number...Ignored