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Macroeconomic Analysis

  • #521
  • May 14, 2012 12:51pm May 14, 2012 12:51pm

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Some notes/charts about CBOE Nd/100 BuyWrite Indicator.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
http://www.cboe.idmanagedsolutions.c...END=0&SPLITS=0
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...045&mocktick=1
  • #522
  • May 14, 2012 1:02pm May 14, 2012 1:02pm

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Some notes/charts about CBOE D.J. BuyWrite Indicator.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
http://www.cboe.idmanagedsolutions.c...END=0&SPLITS=0
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...045&mocktick=1
  • #523
  • May 14, 2012 1:06pm May 14, 2012 1:06pm

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Some notes/charts about CBOE Rx-2K BuyWrite Indicator.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
http://www.cboe.idmanagedsolutions.c...END=0&SPLITS=0
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...045&mocktick=1
  • #524
  • May 14, 2012 1:10pm May 14, 2012 1:10pm

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Some notes/charts about CBOE S&P500 PutWrite Indicator.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
http://www.cboe.idmanagedsolutions.c...END=0&SPLITS=0
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaa...045&mocktick=1
  • #525
  • May 14, 2012 1:15pm May 14, 2012 1:15pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about CBOE S&P500 BuyWrite O.o.t.M. Indicator.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
http://www.cboe.idmanagedsolutions.c...END=0&SPLITS=0
http://www.marketwatch.com/charts/in...rand=153606593
  • #526
  • May 16, 2012 2:34am May 16, 2012 2:34am

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Some notes/charts about Personal Spread Indicators about US Stocks-Market.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► previous studie/charts: 2X & 3X ETF on QQQ, 2010-charts -- Rydex H.I. 2010-study -- FAZ/FAS 2010-study -- FAZ/FAS charts.

These personal spread indicators (or H.I.) are about contrarian to main trend of the underlyings (see notes below).
The yellow charts (4h ema-format) shows a short term graphical knot (red thunderbolt) as marker of important increase of financial stress.
With red * there is the major marker for a mid-term important increase (spreads > *level).
On black chart (weekly & 10Base-semilog. ema-format) there is the long term chart of Rydex Funds (2X )based on Nd/100. The set-up between two blue descending lines (dotted vs. continuous) is the short term marker for important increase of financial stress (for mid & long term, see: gray area and red*).
Lows of 2007 are well above actual 2011/2012 lows and this is an important sign of confirmation of bullish status (in long-term) of underlyings main trend for QQQ. Moreover, there are not divergence between price-evolution of H.I. vs. QQQ in short term.
RSI & MACD on Rydex H.I. shows important divengences on lows, but without operating signals (MACD < 0-level; RSI < 50-level).
US stocks-market shows a short term risk of short increase in ETF funds (red thunderbolt).


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
NOTE on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 1.7 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 799 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 763 KB
  • #527
  • May 17, 2012 5:12pm May 17, 2012 5:12pm

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Some notes/charts about Spain Risk Data.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► European benchmarks (general; single countries);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In these charts there are some curves about the risk evaluation of Spain.
In the first 4 charts there are the comparative curves of Gov.Bond yield Spain vs. Germany.
From 2010 we can see a Pyroclastic increase of d-spreads.
The n.5 chart shows the SkyRocket of CDS Ind. of Spain at 5y (2010 start), with a triple cups completed in bullish status (n.1 & n.2) or in continuation-bull (see n.3).
The EWP ETF in linear & yearly candle-format, shows an important inside structure (2009 > 2010 & 2011; sell sign in 2012), with a possible MeltDown (target as 11$ about) of benchmarks, if prices remain well below 2009 mid-point (see diamond on candle).
The r-spread EWP/EWG shows from 2010, a monstre MeltDown of indicator, with an hard slope toward 1992/1993/2000 binary-levels !!!


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
Some data, studies & curves.
► Deut. Risk Data.
► European (2011) Gov.Bond Yield-Spreads & CDS Ind.
► PIIGS & G6 (2011) CDS Ind.
► German Gov Bond Yields (1y chart-frame): 2y -- 5y -- 10y -- 30y.
► Spain Gov Bond Yields (1y chart-frame): 2y -- 5y -- 10y -- 30y.
► Spain CDS Ind.: 5y (1y chart-frame).
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 533 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 397 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 1.3 MB
  • #528
  • Edited 1:49am May 18, 2012 1:45am | Edited 1:49am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about some CBOE Personal Volatility (Spread) Indicators about US Stocks-Market.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous studies/charts: post n.167 & n.169; post n.266 & n.268.
► Some ETF & ETN on Volatility.

These personal r-spread indicators (or H.I.) are about contrarian to main trend of the underlyings (see notes below and on the attached charts; see also the previous 526-post), and are based on CBOE Volatility Indicators or some ETN related (see the charts attached).
With red * there are the major marker for a short-mid term important increase (spreads > *level) of financial stress of underlyings.
US stocks-market shows a short-mid term signs of actual increase of financial stress.
There is an alert for a continuation-bull of these indicators (see also the previous 526-post).


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
NOTE on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 1.5 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg4.jpg Size: 1.6 MB
  • #529
  • May 19, 2012 7:17am May 19, 2012 7:17am

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Some megalithic charts.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

https://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net...23744624_n.jpg



Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
  • #530
  • May 20, 2012 4:23pm May 20, 2012 4:23pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about CBOE Volatility Indicator of VIX.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Some ETF & ETN on Volatility.

The VVIX Index is an indicator of the expected volatility of the 30-day forward price of the VIX., calculated from a portfolio of VIX options (VVIX portfolio) using the same algorithm used to calculate the VIX.
Approximate fair values of VIX futures prices and their standard deviations are derived from the VVIX term structure.
The following charts are the historical & comparative curve, the 5y curve and 1y curve.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg0.jpg Size: 571 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 485 KB
  • #531
  • May 21, 2012 1:25am May 21, 2012 1:25am

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Some notes/charts about QQQ ETF.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► previous studies/charts: 26/04/2011; 03/01/2012 -- 29/01/2012 (the first and second charts of list) -- 09/03/2012 -- 12/04/2012.

A short up-date of QQQ graphical situation.
The GraphicalContest structure under construction in 2011, and formalized in the 4h & daily charts of Jan.2012, has been completed as a bullish H&S, toward the target of structure (see pink line on 67.7$ level) !!!
This short-mid term structure has an important impact (Pyroclastic???) on other long-term structures of the Nd/100: ⓆⓆⓆ yearly inside (78$ target); big-H&S and ascending channel (see the attached chart n.IV or the following chart).
The actual price-evolution shows the following elements:
-) bearish break of the minor high slope ascending channel in the first week of may (chart I);
-) bearish break of the major high slope ascending channel in the III week of may (chart II);
-) full descending test (60.50$ vs. neck at 59.50-59.00$) of the neck of previous H&S (binary level in pink: chart I);
-) full descending test of ema 10 mo. (chart III), near to topping zone of 2011;
-) curve of volume (II chart) above the red descending line (stress increase according to this indicator), but curve again below the horizontal level (pink) of important volume stress in short term;
-) giant bullish H&S 2008/2010 about at target (chart IV) and about at the mid point (tin & gray line) of upper rectangle !!!
-) the long-term ema-format chart (IV) do not shows inversion signals.

Follows the following elements for the future evolution of mid-term trend of QQQ:
*) price-evolution on the green-area (= set-up) marked on chart I;
*) price-evolution on the topping-area of 2011 and on the ema 10mo. (chart III: yellow markers);
*) curve-evolution of volume on the pink-binary (chart II);
*) price-evolution on level 57.0/57.5$ on chart IV.
*) RSI, MACD, RoC;
*) OBV, Ult.Osc., DMI;
*) Slow Volat., Slow Stock.,
*) Monthly.
*) January rule of Gann.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...Q%3AUS&img=png
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ZXY-KeSaddaPhaPeKampa0305a.jpg Size: 1.7 MB
Click to Enlarge Name: ZXY-KeSaddaPhaPeKampa0305b.jpg Size: 950 KB
  • #532
  • May 23, 2012 2:06pm May 23, 2012 2:06pm

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
❖ H! ALL ❖


Some notes/charts about MacroEconomy of Italy.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► Italian stocks-benchmarks (FTSE/MIB; IT/DOW; IT/DOW Titan30; IT/MSCI; GlobalComit; Comit/30; Comit/Perf.);
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► EWI study.



Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg1.jpg Size: 621 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg2.jpg Size: 459 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Sa!Vyjpg3.jpg Size: 275 KB
  • #533
  • Edited 6:07am May 24, 2012 5:58am | Edited 6:07am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about GLD ETF.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Long term Au charts.
► AU & Ag comparative corrections from 2000.

On GLD ETF we can see the following GraphicalContest in progress (sept.2011 until now):
-) bullish H&S vs. bearish double-tops (nov.2011-feb.2012).
Prices (consistently & persistently) below the GraphicalContest lows, have a bearish impact on ETF with a first target of 128$ about.
Only a rapid action of prices above two ** binary-levels, can stop the bearish evolution of GLD.

In the second chart there is the r-spread between GLD vs. WITE ETF, in order to measure the short-term financial stress as Au vs silver, platinum and palladium bullion.
The bearish action of white precious metals, shows a steeper slope (= faster) vs. Au, and this is a sign of local stress increase inside financial markets (follows the actual top of r-spread as important marker).


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...D%3AUS&img=png
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...D%3AUS&img=png
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #534
  • May 24, 2012 8:12am May 24, 2012 8:12am

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Some notes/charts about Au volatility indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Long term Au charts; short-term GLD charts.
► AU & Ag comparative corrections from 2000.



Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
CBOE Gold Miners ETF Volatility Index
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=76398
CBOE/COMEX Gold Volatility Index
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  • #535
  • May 25, 2012 5:24am May 25, 2012 5:24am

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Some notes/charts about €/US$.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► previous studies/charts: €/US$ analysis 2010 -- € CoT2011 -- US$-Index 2010.

In this post there are some notes about €/US$.

In the first chart there is the complete ema-format price-evolution.
The main graphical elements are the followings:
-) prices in hard descending test (III from 2008) of superior giant rectangle (dotted & blue; see previous 1996 test !!!);
-) key binary-levels 1.26/1.29 about (1987/1988 tops; 2004 first top; lows of 2008/2009/2010/2012);
-) prices well below the Multiple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma, triangular-ma, Wilders-ma), a key-marker for long-term reversals;
-) key binary-level 1.11/1.12 (red square-area) as possible first stop if prices goes below (consistently & persistently) the previous key-binary (1.26/1.29);
-) main set-up (green triangular-area) at 0.98/1.02 (in years 2014-2015);
-) final key binary-level at lows of 2000/2002 (pink-area).
Alert on the possible break of binary-levels 1.26/1.29, for an important continuation bear of €/$ (steps: 1.11/1.12; 1.00; 0.86/0.85).
Stop of actual bear-status only with prices well above the descendig dotted & red channel from the top of 2008.

In the second chart there is the 1998-zoom of previous price-evolution.
The main graphical elements are the followings:
*) there is a wonder GraphicalContest between a bearish double tops (levels in red markers: 2009-2011 tops) vs. bullish triple lows (levels in blue markers: 2008-2010-2012);
*) targets of this GraphicalContest are in yellow (1.02) & orange (0.96) columns, according to considered levels.
See comments on previous chart.

In the III chart there is the CoT-chart with a monthly candle-format (linear).
The main graphical elements are the followings:
>) the same price-targets of previous charts (see columns);
>) the price structure of €-Index from 2008, is flag-like (two structures: white and red flag-like);
>) the spread Commercial vs. Large Traders has a horrible bearish-array (10y top !!!), and 2X of previous bearish spread in 2010 !!!
Follows the €-flag-like structures.
The possible bullish break of flag-like structures could be strongly bullish for stocks-market ???
The possible failure break of flag-like structures could be bearish (corrective?) for stocks-market ???
The giant spread Commercial vs. Large Traders shows structural pessimism of market about €.

In the IV (set of) charts, there are two r-spreads between 2X ETF on US$/€: short & long.
These 'personal' instruments (or H.I.: see notes below) are interestings in order to study the trend of qualitative sentiment of market on a pair of leveraged ETF.
According (see circles on the charts) to these H.I. 'personal' indicators, € shows important reversals in bearish-array (or bearish-status).

In the V chart there is a sentiment curve about the public opinion on €.

Some oscillators about €-ETF FXE:
x) RSI, MACD, RoC;
x) OBV, Ult.Osc., DMI;
x) Slow Volat., Slow Stock.,
x) Monthly.
x) January rule of Gann.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
NOTES on spread indicators or H.I.
The curve of the spread (or Hedge Ind. = H.I.) is obtained by placing the first term (dividend) in the numerator if the curve is an r-spreads, or to the minuend if the curve is a d-spread.
According to the amplitude of curve, you can use a linear mode or a logarithmic scale only on 'y' prices (semi-log. charts ); the logarithmic scale, depending on the G-Tol, can be in Briggs base (base = 10) or with a napier base (base = e).
A decrease of both components can still determine an increase or less of the prices of the indicator obtained or spread (or Hedge.Indicator in other studies), because of the variations of the components may have different speeds or slopes.
A decrease indicates a loss of strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component; an increase indicates an increase in strength of the numerator (or the minuend) vs. second component.
It is not an operative analysis, but this method provides a key in order to view (on frames chosen) of the sentiment on the components used.
Therefore it is much more useful to look at and analyze the general trend of the curve and the comparison with the previous lows / tops, instead of dwelling on the scale of absolute value (prices).
Charts are in ema-format (replacement of the courses with exp.mov.aver.: personal innovation) in order to purificale signals on these curves very volatile. The ema-format can be used for short, long, linear, logarithmic, daily, weekly, monthly, etc., chart types.
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  • #536
  • May 26, 2012 8:09am May 26, 2012 8:09am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about Au volatility indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Au volatility indexes.

In this post there is a personal indicator (first chart) of Au volatility, based on the average between the CBOE volatility indicator of GLD & GDX ETF (price-actions of these two Au-ETF are reported in the second chart).
This indicator shows a continuous bearish-array from 2011-top.
Now the curve shows increasing stress until to recent may-top (see set-up between descending channel vs. horizontals of some lows & tops of 2011).
Only with prices (consistently & persistently) above this set-up there will be an important increase in average indicator of Au-volatility (hard financial stress for Au in short-term).
Prices in continuation-bear below two horizontal ''red square marked'', will cause a decrease of stress inside Au ETF.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #537
  • May 26, 2012 11:58am May 26, 2012 11:58am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about Social Network benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are two benchmarks of Social Networks sector, compared to 3 general stocks-benchmarks, in order to see the short-term performances (benchmarks are: IOO, QQQ, S&P500, SOCL, TickerSpy portfolio).
Social Network benchmarks shows important under-performances.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...L%3AUS&img=png
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.We...720&mocktick=1
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  • #538
  • May 27, 2012 9:35am May 27, 2012 9:35am

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀
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Some notes/charts about €/US$ volatility indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► previous studies/charts: €/US$ analysis 2012 -- US$-Index 2010.

In this post there are some notes about €/US$ volatility indicators.

CBOE Volat.Ind. on €-ETF:
-) dark-blue cup 2009/2011 vs. horizontals on lows 2009/2010;
-) bearish-array according to descending key-tops;
-) prices in full ascending test of Quadruple 10mo. average (yellow-lines: sma, ema, fwma, vwma);
-) pink area as structural zone for reversal or acceleration of trend.

A.T.M. Impl.Volat.Ind. on €/$:
-) same cap structure of previous indicator CBOE Volatility Ind. €-ETF;
-) short-term frames (1, 3, 6 mo.) shows cup structure similar to CBOE Volatility Ind. €-ETF;
-) mid-term frames (12, 24, 60 mo.) shows a much more bullish cup vs. CBOE Volatility Ind. €-ETF;
-) 120 mo frame shows a cup in bullish status !!!

Seasonal Volatility Ind. on €/$ & R-Vol.:
-) may-june shows a top of seasonal volatility, based on 36y chart history (red circle).
-) the Realized Volatility on Realized Volatility of €/$, shows an important anticipatory bullish (local: cup of 2012) sign.

Alert levels are the followings:
1) top of 2010 in CBOE Volatility Ind. & A.T.M. Impl.Volat.Ind.;
2) pink-area on CBOE Volatility Ind. (two format charts).



Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #539
  • May 28, 2012 12:34pm May 28, 2012 12:34pm

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Some notes/charts about US Gov.Bond Yield Spread Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

In this post there are some notes about the yield spread between US Gov.Bond TIPS vs. Constant Maturity, at 3 frames.
These curves are about contrarian to underlying benchmarks.
The main graphical elements are the followings:
-) structural trend of curves has bullish-array (white binary ascending lines);
-) key-levels as tops of 2002/2003 & 2010 and lows of 2010 (horizontal yellow lines);
-) 2009/2012 curves evolution shows a descending red channel, with an important divergence between 2010 lows on spread-indicators vs. underlying benchmarks tops of 2011/2012 (bearish sign).
Prices in continuation-action inside the red channels, have a positive impact on underlying benchmarks.
Curves above the red channels will cause an important increase of financial stress on underlyings.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #540
  • May 29, 2012 9:07am May 29, 2012 9:07am

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Some notes/charts about DEUT-Bund 10y.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
► Previous chart.


Sorry for my bad English. I hope that this post is at least minimally useful.
☻/ ۞ Globo.pk, Alert 2.O !!! ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a correct & real-time set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
₭€$AⅅⅅhAPhA'pe'₭AℳℙA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
Ⓘℳ☢ ℬɣ $@❣♆￥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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