Macroeconomic Analysis

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Hungary Risk Data.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

Budapest Stock Exchange Index &
OTOB Hungarian Traded Index (CHTX): 1y frame
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png

HUNGARY Bond Auction Results 5YR Average Accepted Yield: 1y frame
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Hungary Risk Data Review.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
HUNGARY Gov.Bond Yields.
HUNGARY ⒸⒹⓈ (previous charts).
HUNGARY / DEUT. Gov.Bond 10y Yield-Spread.
HUNGARY Stocks-Market.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

This is very interesting indeed. It is no suprise to me that another country is in deep financial mess. The way we do business is simply unsustainable. Years of welfare states, interest manupulation and deficits are showing teeth now. Another bites the dust...

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Japan STOCKS-BENCHMARK: SkyRocket or MeltDown ?

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► Japan stocks-benchmarks (Nikkey Average; Nikkey 300; MSCI Japan ETF; Topix/150 ETF);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
Japan Data.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png



As the previous studies on Japan, this post is preparatory to the final study of the Nikkei price-curve.
In this chart (weekly frame; linear; 2-exp.envel.-format) we can see two short-term structures, very interesting for the future price-evolution of Nikkei.
A) Descending channel 2009/2011 (marked with gray-lines; targets as dotted-lines).
Prices are inside this structure, and with gray dotted-lines are signaled the targets, if prices goes out of channel; bull-target for 2012, 12700/12500; bear-target for 2012, 6100/5500.
B) Cup 2010 (II-IV quarters) - 2011 (I) (marked with white square) and based on 2010 low (a little below 9000 as ema-1; blue-line).
Prices have broken the base, or 2010-lows, with a first test in I/quarter-2011, and a break in summer-2011; price-target as signaled by the column of withe-square dots, about at 6700/6500 level, depending on the start-point for calculating the area of the cup.
The continuation-bear of prices below 2010-lows, increases the probability of bearish target of cup ('B'); this is a key-factor for the bearish evolution of descending-channel ('A').
Bearish evolution of gray descending channel will cause a SellOff below 2008-lows !!!??? See also these charts/notes: n.344; n.351.
Only prices above 2010-lows can stop the short-term bearish trend, but a real reversal there will be only above gray-channell.
The two exp.envel. system shows bearish-array.
Also MACD, PPO, TRIX, shows bearish-array (below 0-line), but there are some signs of momentum-loss of the 2011 bear !!!






☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about ⒾⒻⓄ Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

ⒾⒻⓄ Pan Germany
Business Climate
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
ⒾⒻⓄ Pan Germany
Business Expectations
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
ⒾⒻⓄ Pan Germany
Current Assessment
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png

From the ⒾⒻⓄ DataBaseCharts we can see the following graphical elements (previous study).

-) The World Average Ind. shows an important SellOff toward 1998-2001/2002 lows, with curve well below mid-line.
-) The spread between 6mo. curve vs. actual curve is negative (6mo. value 2011 < 2001/2002 !!!).
-) North America Average Ind. as World Average Ind.
-) Asia Average Ind. as World Average Ind., but with Pyroclastic divergence between tops of 2010 > 2011 !!!
-) Europe Ind. with very bearish-array situation of curves; actual lows well below 2001/2002 & 1998 lows !!!
-) Deutsche Ind. with positive or very positive curve-array.

The elements of global interest (World, US, Asia, EU) are negative and there was a deterioration, compared to the previous study, for a global evaluation of economy and financial markets, on mid-long term.
Germany shows strength above average.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Japan STOCKS-BENCHMARK: SkyRocket or MeltDown ?

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► Japan stocks-benchmarks (Nikkey Average; Nikkey 300; MSCI Japan ETF; Topix/150 ETF);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png
PREVIOUS JAPAN CHARTS/NOTES:
◂ macro-economic data ( 277 - 295 - 296 - 297 - 298 - 299 - 300 - 301 - 335 );
◂ curves for, Gov.Bond Yields, CDS, Swap, LOIS, some macro-data;
◂ charts about global & Japan debts (part-A; part-B);
◂ charts & maps about debts: A; B; C; D; E; F;
◂ ¥ crosses;
◂ comparative charts Au (1980/2001) vs. Nikkei (1990/2011);
◂ Nikkei vs. other stocks-benchmarks, CRB, WTI, US-Gov.Bond/30y, Au;
◂ Nikkei chart post top of 1989/1990;
◂ Nikkei historical charts with lines;
◂ Nikkei in yearly frame;
◂ Nikkei in monthly frame;
◂ Nikkei in weekly frame.



In this post there is the review of previous study on Nikkei prices.

The first chart attached is the daily & linear ema-format with a complete set of lines.
The second chart is the daily & linear two-exp.envel.-format (same lines).
The III chart is the zoom of Cup 2010(II-IV quarters) - 2011(I) (see B-structure at this study).

Nikkei shows a complete bearish-array, according to:
-) actual prices inside the red-bold channel from the historical top [hard bearish trend with high (-)slope];
-) current prices inside the main red channel from '90 lows & tops [lateral-bearish trend with moderate (-)slope];
-) actual prices well below '90 key-lows;
-) lows of 2008/2009 about 'in-line' with 1982-lows, both in ema-format and in candles-format;
-) key tops & lows of '90 & '00 in descending-array;
-) current prices below structural ema [200; 500; 1000], and two-exp.envel. in bearish-array; 2011 & 2012 prices < 2010-lows.

The mid-term structures (weekly) of previous study shows the following targets:
A) Descending channel 2009/2011 (marked with gray-lines; targets as dotted-lines); bull-target for 2012, 12700/12500; bear-target for 2012, 6100/5500.
B) Cup 2010(II-IV quarters) - 2011(I), based on 2010 low (about 9000; blue-line); bearish price-target (break of 2010-lows in summer-2011) about at 6700/6500 level.

The monthly structures of previous study shows the following targets:
inside monthly of oct.2008 - price space 4462 (as 38.9% from candle-top. T/L/Mid: 11457/6995/9226); bull-target 15919; bear-target 2533 and bear-%target 4274;
inside monthly of mar.2011 - price space 2540 (T/L/Mid: 10768/8228/9498); bull-target 13308; bear-target 5688.

The yearly structures of previous study shows the following targets (data on the charts):
yearly inside-candle 1990; bearish numerical target 613; bearish % target 10049 (realized in 2001);
yearly inside-candle 1992; bearish numerical target 4486;
yearly inside-candle 2008; bearish numerical target not possible (negative value); bearish % target 3228.
white-rectangle of ema-format yearly; bearish %-target 3000/2400; bullish-target in 2012, 26000.

The theoretical final bearish-target of price-evolution from top of 1989/1990, according to %-loss of DJ 1929/1932, and according to Nasdaq/100 %-loss in 2000/2002 (see the yearly ema-format chart) is 4000/3900 about.

The secular structure of previous study shows the following targets:
convergence between the ''ascending blue-bold dotted-line from tops of decades if 1910 and of 1920'' vs. the ''descending yellow & continuous line linking the main lows of the decade 1990 and 2000''; target of this convergence in 2012/2013, at about 4000/3500.
The obstacle for this SellOff is represented by the ascending blue-bold dotted-line from the lows of decade 1960, now at about 7500.

The gigantic column priceXvolume shows the following levels: 10000, and 9000/8500 (monthly).

According to this review, there is the following sequence of levels:
-) 26000
-) 15919
-) 13308
-) 12700/12500
-) 10049/10000
-) 9000/8500
*) close of 31/12/2011: 8399/8455.
-) 7500
-) 6700/6500/6100/5688/5500
-) 4486/4274/4000/3900
-) 3500/3228/3000/
-) 2533/2400
-) 613

Graphical key-element.
The smaller graphical structure, which can result in major effects (key-element) on the evolution of Nikkei prices, probably is the Cup 2010(II-IV quarters) - 2011(I) (see B-structure or attached-chart III).
In fact a continuation-bear of prices below 2010-lows (the real driver-element) is a key-factor toward a bearish evolution of the descending-channel ('A' in above weekly comments).
The bearish-status of the cup 'B' will cause a bearish-status of descending-channel 'A', and this can be a Pyroclastic event in the evolution of Nikkei prices.
With the bearish-status of descending-channel 'A', there will be a cascade of bearish-signals from the structures weekly, monthly, yearly and secular (see above), because of the breakdown of the level 7500 (see secular chart) and of the level 6995 (= 2008-lows !!!).
The short-term stop of this scenario there will be only with the stop of current continuation-bear, and with prices (consistently and persistently) above 2010-lows (level of 9000, as daily ema-5 ~ weekly ema-1). Prices above 2010-lows, stops both the B-cup and the A-channel, but a real reversal there will be only above gray-channel, with the activation of a cascade of bullish signals from the above structures weekly, monthly, yearly and secular.
Pink-triangle area (on axis of prices ◀ ) is the key graphical set-up for the structural reversal in bullish-status of Nikkei.








☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about ⒶⒶⓅⓁ short term chart-structure.
http://i1-news.softpedia-static.com/...ttsburgh-2.jpg
General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...L%3AUS&img=png
REUT-Fin.Data -- Fin.Data -- FINVIZ-Fin.Data -- BARCH-Fin.Data -- GOOG Fin.Data -- ZACK Fin.Data -- Y-Fin.Data
SEC -- Owners -- Insiders -- Short-data -- Options -- Analysts -- NEWSbyGOOG.


In this post there are two ema-format (linear) charts of ⒶⒶⓅⓁ: daily; weekly.
An important set-up for the company has been marked.
This set-up is an alert for the continuation-bull of this stocks vs. a short-mid term reversal of the company prices-action.
Follows this.




☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ISI; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

The benchmarks of this posts are the following:
IXG (data & chart);
DJUSFN (data & chart);
IAI (data & chart);
EUFN (data & chart).



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

The benchmarks used are the above ''global U.S. stocks-benchmarks''.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

The benchmarks used are the above ''global World stocks-benchmarks''.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

The benchmarks used are the above ''main U.S. stocks-benchmarks''.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of some benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).

The benchmarks used are the following:
► Italian stocks-benchmarks (FTSE/MIB; IT/DOW; IT/DOW Titan30; IT/MSCI)



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Comparative price-evolutions of Nd/Biotech. vs. some benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
Nd/Biotech. study of dec.2011.

Source: Stock.Charts.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about CBOE Volatility Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png

In this post there are some notes about volatility indicators of U.S. stocks-market.
In the first chart there are 4 CBOE Volatility Indicators of 4 stocks-indexes: S&P500; Nd/100; Russell-2k; Dow Jones.
In the second chart there is the simple arithmetic mean of the previous 4 curves, in order to obtain a global evaluator indicator for U.S. stocks-market volatility.
In the III & IV charts there is an average indicator of VIX & VXN from an external provider (aug.2011 & actual study), with the daily simple moving average.
The average indicator is contrarian to underlyings and shows important anticipatory behavious (see price-evolution of 2007 and of 2008/2009).

The main step of indicator-evolution, post-2007, are as follows:
-) from the SkyRocket of 2008, the average-indicator has obtained a 2.5X of the basal (continuous-lines) channel, until the top of the chart;
-) from this key-top, the indicator SellOff until to 2010 II quarter (first key-low);
-) from II quarter of 2010 originates a new bullish-leg, with a new SkyRocket of indicator;
-) new SellOff of indicator until to the II key-low of chart (II quarter of 2011), with the start of a new bullish leg and a double-tops in 2011 > of previous 2010-top;
-) new SellOff of indicator, in full-descending direction of the set-up between 2008-lows vs. ascending (dotted) basal line (parallel to basal channel);
-) prices now are below the 200 daily simp.mov.aver.

Notes.
The hard bearish phase of average indicator, is completed in 2011, with the curve above the blue descending line (dotted & very negative slope).
The new 2011 lows (< to 2010) and the new 2011 double-tops (> 2010) are a sign of a engulfed yearly bar without a valid operating signals.
The basal set-up is a dangerous zone for a future top in divergence vs. underlying-top.
Prices below the 2008 lows (red-heart), are very important in order to decrease the financial stress (according to this indicator), with a probable new structural bullish-leg of underlyings, and a MeltDown of curve.
Prices above the basal set-up, and above the binary of first top of 2011 & first tops of 2008 (blue-heart) are very important elements for a great increase of financial stress (according to this indicator), with a probable run of curve until to 2011 tops (see blue descending rectangle !!!). Above 2011 tops the gray-cup goes in bullish-status, with a monster SkyRocket of average-indicator.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about CBOE Volatility Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png

In this post there are some notes about volatility indicators of U.S. stocks-market (see previous charts).
In the first chart there is a d-spread volatility indicator (contrarian to underlyings & with important anticipatory behavious as we can see from 2007 and 2008/2009 evolution), obtained from the difference between two components:
I) the simple arithmetic average of the two most important CBOE volatility ind., by adding a correction factor based on the frame. 1mo. vs. 3mo.
II) CBOE S&P500 Volatility Indicator 1mo.
The aim of this indicator is to evaluates the financial stress inside the main CBOE volatility indicators, in order to obtain anticipatory signs/signals of the price-evolution of VIX or VXN.
The graphical key-elements are the following.
-) The SkyRocket of 2008 shows 3 tops in array as marked with orange triangles, very similar to the array of 3 tops of the 2010/2011 (same markers); the curve goes toward a similar evolution (I quarter of 2009) ???
-) The MeltDown structure of the curve, post-top of 2008, shows a pattern very similar to the structure of waves of 2011 mini-collapse (green square markers); the curve goes toward a similar evolution (I quarter of 2009) ???
-) The new 2011-lows (< 2010) and the new 2011-top (> 2010), are a sign of a engulfed yearly bar without a valid operating signals.
-) Curve well below the blue-rectangle (continuation-bear sign).
-) Curve well below the 2008-lows (important continuation-bear sign).
-) Top of I quarter of 2008 as a probable key-marker of indicator in SkyRocket array (if prices goes above).
-) First Pyroclastic set-up in 2012, between 2008-lows vs. descending white rectangle.
-) II Pyroclastic set-up in 2012, between (blue & large triangle area) between blue rectangle vs. structural descending line linking the main tops of 2008/2011.

In the second chart there is the double r-spread volatility indicator (contrarian to underlyings & with important anticipatory behavious as we can see from 2007 and 2008/2009 evolution), obtained with same components as above.
Red curve is the bullish components of indicator; green-curve is the bearish components of the indicator.
The aim of this indicator is to support the evaluation of the financial stress inside the main CBOE volatility indicators, in order to obtain anticipatory signs/signals for the price-evolution of VIX/VXN.
The graphical key-elements are the following.
After 2010 giant bull-spread (red > green), there was the reverse of curve with a triple top for the bearish-spread (red < green) in 2010/2011.
A second giant bull-spread of indicator in mid-2011 (with cross of main trend lines), and new important SellOff of red (the contrary for the green), with re-cross of main trend lines and new important low for red (= top for green).
Actual spread shows the same value showed at the 2010/2011 tops for underlyings (red < green).
Is this an alert sign of topping 'in progress' for underlyings ???
The main trend-lines are in close in the first quarter of 2012, as marked with pink vertical-line.
Follows this time set-up.

Notes.
These two indicators shows values according to top-formation for underlyings in the first quarter of 2012.
According to the first indicator, only curve above 2008-lows will cause a short-term reversal of actual bearish trend.
Curve above the blue triangle-area will cause an important break of bearish-trend, but only abobe 2008 top of I quarter will cause a new SkyRocket of financial stress.
Curve below the blue triangle-area increae the probability of new bull-leg of underlyings.
In the second chart, an important sign is the position of red-curve vs. 1-line: red above 1 shows financial stress inside CBOE volatility indicators.





☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about Rating Company: FITCH.
http://www.fitchratings.com/multimed...tchRatings.gif
Dual-headquartered in New York and London with 51 offices worldwide, Fitch Ratings is a global rating agency dedicated to providing value beyond the rating through independent and prospective credit opinions, research and data. Offering a world of knowledge and experience behind every opinion, we transform information to deliver meaning and utility to investors, issuers and other market participants. Fitch Ratings’ global expertise draws on local market knowledge and spans across the fixed-income universe. The additional context, perspective and insights we provide help investors make important credit judgments with confidence.
Fitch Solutions is committed to delivering value beyond the rating by providing a range of fixed-income products and professional development services to the global financial community. In addition to offering proprietary content, the firm also distributes the ratings, research, financial data and analytical tools of Fitch Ratings. With innovation and experience behind every product and service, Fitch Solutions' flexible offerings are designed to meet the diverse needs of the credit markets.
Fitch Ratings and Fitch Solutions are part of the Fitch Group, a majority-owned subsidiary of Fimalac, S.A., headquartered in Paris, France.
Fitch Ratings was founded as the Fitch Publishing Company on December 24, 1913 by John Knowles Fitch. Located in the heart of the Financial District in New York City, the Fitch Publishing Company began as a publisher of financial statistics. In 1924, the Fitch Publishing Company first introduced (see Fitch Ratings Definitions) the now familiar “AAA” to “D” ratings scale to meet the growing demand for independent analysis of financial securities (actual leadership).
Fitch Ratings was one of the three ratings agencies first recognized by the Securities and Exchange Commission as a nationally recognized statistical rating organization (NRSRO) in 1975.
http://www.fimalac.com/layouts/site/...go-fimalac.gif
Fimalac, a holding company set up and led by Marc Ladreit de Lacharrière (see Board), currently operates in three business areas (see history):
Fitch Group, which is 60%-owned by Fimalac alongside the Hearst Group, is a major financial services player with a strong presence in the ratings market (Fitch Ratings). With operations in over fifty countries, in fiscal 2010/2011 Fitch Group reported revenue of €545.0 million with an average of 2,337 employees.
Fimalac is present in the real estate sector, mainly through North Colonnade Ltd, owner of an office building in the prestigious Canary Wharf district of London that is in the process of being fitted out. Part of the building will be let to Fitch Group, which has been transfered its London headquarters there at the end of 2010, and the remaining floors will be let to outside tenants. Once completed, this asset will generate recurring revenues for Fimalac over a long period.
Fimalac is developing diversified investments, mainly through its Fimalac Développement subsidiary, acquiring stakes in competitive companies with strong growth potential. Fimalac invests in these companies alongside their managers and plays an active role in helping to run the business with the goal of to driving future growth.
Fimalac is listed on the first market of Euronext Paris (ISIN code: FR0000037947 - Reuters code : FIM). The stock is part of the CAC ALL SHARES index.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...M%3AFP&img=png
http://www.fimalac.com/medias/le-gro...i-vertical.jpg
http://www.fimalac.com/medias/histor...historique.jpg


Countries & Rating.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about US Real Estate Indicators.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► main U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: QQQ; ONEQ; DIA; OEF; SPY);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png

In this post there is an evaluation of U.S. House-Sector published on MacroMarkets.
The baseline trend is derived by extrapolating the average rate of index growth before 2000,
the year when prices in many real estate markets began appreciating at unprecedented and unsustainable levels.
Gap measures the percentage difference between a current index level and its corresponding baseline level.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes about Rating Company: MOODY'S.
http://www.economiafinanza.net/wp-co...odys-logo3.jpg
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...O%3AUS&img=png
Moody’s Corporation (Moody’s) is a provider of credit ratings; credit and economic related research, data and analytical tools, risk management software and quantitative credit risk measures, credit portfolio management solutions, training and financial credentialing and certification services. Moody’s operates in two segments: Moody’s Investors Service (MIS) and Moody’s Analytics (MA). MIS, the credit rating agency, publishes credit ratings on a range of debt obligations and the entities that issue such obligations in markets worldwide, including various corporate and governmental obligations, structured finance securities and commercial paper programs. Revenue is derived from the originators and issuers of such transactions who use MIS ratings to support the distribution of their debt issues to investors. MA segment develops a range of products and services that support the risk management activities of institutional participants in global financial markets. In November 2010, the Company acquired CSI Global Education Inc. As of December 31, 2010, the Company’ operations were conducted from 15 United States offices and 43 non-United States office locations, all of which are leased. In November 2011, the Company acquired a majority interest in companies of Copal Partners. In December 2011, the Company acquired Barrie & Hibbert Limited, a provider of risk management modeling tools for insurance companies worldwide.
MIS provides ratings in more than 110 countries. Ratings are disseminated through press releases to the public through a variety of print and electronic media, including the Internet and real-time information systems used by securities traders and investors. As of December 31, 2010, MIS had ratings relationships with approximately 11,000 corporate issuers and approximately 22,000 public finance issuers. Additionally, the Company has rated and monitors ratings on approximately 102,000 structured finance obligations (representing approximately 15,000 transactions).
Within the Company’s Research, Data and Analytics (RD&A) business, MA distributes investor-oriented research and data developed by MIS as part of its ratings process, including in-depth research on debt issuers, industry studies, commentary on topical credit related events and also provides economic research and credit data and analytical tools, such as quantitative credit risk scores. Within its Risk Management Software business, MA provides both economic and regulatory capital risk management software and implementation services. Within its professional services business it provides quantitative credit risk measures, credit portfolio management solutions, training and financial credentialing and certification services. MA customers represent more than 4,100 institutions worldwide operating in approximately 115 countries. During the year ended December 31, 2010, Moody’s research Website was accessed by over 185,000 individuals, including 27,000 client users.
The Company (see history) competes with The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., Dominion Bond Rating Service Ltd., A.M. Best Company Inc, Japan Credit Rating Agency Ltd., Rating and Investment Information Inc., Egan-Jones Ratings Company, Kroll Bond Rating Agency, Inc., Morningstar, Inc., Thomson-Reuters, Bloomberg, RiskMetrics, S&P, Dun & Bradstreet, Markit Group, Fitch Algorithmics, CreditSights, Intex, IHS Global Insight, BlackRock Solution, SunGard, SAS, Oracle, Oliver Wyman, Omega Performance and DC Gardner.
OWNERSHIP INFORMATION: INSTITUTIONALS -- MUTUAL FUNDS -- > 5%.

Countries & Ratings.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Italian Stocks-Benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► Italian stocks-benchmarks (FTSE/MIB; IT/DOW; IT/DOW Titan30; IT/MSCI);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...%3AIND&img=png

In this post there are some P&F charts, with 3 format of price-box (see on the charts).



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤

►►Financial Markets Observatory Lab.◀◀

∞

H! ALL [ bad English, sorry ⊱ : ( ]
Some notes/charts about Italian Stocks-Benchmarks.

General stocks-benchmarks as follows:
► Italian stocks-benchmarks (FTSE/MIB; IT/DOW; IT/DOW Titan30; IT/MSCI);
► global U.S. stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: EUSA; ISI; IWB; IWV; IYY; TMW);
► global World stocks-benchmarks (charts & notes: ACWI; DGT; IOO; NYSE W.L.I.; ONEF; VT).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?...I%3AUS&img=png

In this post there are some P&F charts, with one format of price-box (see on the charts) and for 3 benchmarks.



☻/ ۞ Globo.pk 2.0 Alert ۞
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' ℬunda-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
ⒾⓂⓄ ℬϒ $@❣♆¥ ♥ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║ █ ❤