hy guys. if you have a system which wins 80% of the time and the risk/reward is 1 to 0.8 what is the probability that in 50 trades you're going to break/even. also what is the most probable outcome in 50 trades.
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Dislikedhy guys. if you have a system which wins 80% of the time and the risk/reward is 1 to 0.8 what is the probability that in 50 trades you're going to break/even. also what is the most probable outcome in 50 trades.Ignored
Dislikedhy guys. if you have a system which wins 80% of the time and the risk/reward is 1 to 0.8 what is the probability that in 50 trades you're going to break/even. also what is the most probable outcome in 50 trades.Ignored
Dislikedcustos i am aware that bad periods always await. if you look closely at my question i asked what is the probability of going to break even in 50 trades. if you know math maybe you can help.Ignored
Dislikedmaybe I am too simple-minded here.
If you take a win/loss ratio of 80% and an R:R of 1:1 then it should be the following.
no matter how many trades you take you have the same probabilities:
80% probability that you end up with a profit, 20% probability that you end up with a loss. Well, not sure how one would calculate the probability of break-even. Does your win/loss ratio include b/e trades? So, are the 80% shared by b/e and win-trades? Or is the 20% probability shared by losses and b/e trades?
Once you know this, you still need to know how...Ignored
DislikedHe said risk is 0,8:1 but for simplicity lets say its 1:1
Than the probability of loosing after 50 trades should be 0,2 * 0,2 * 0,2 ...and so on...50 times....very very low indeed.Ignored
DislikedHe said risk is 0,8:1 but for simplicity lets say its 1:1
Than the probability of loosing after 50 trades should be 0,2 * 0,2 * 0,2 ...and so on...50 times....very very low indeed.Ignored
Dislikedyeah, you are right about the calculation. Now that you wrote it, I remember, hahaIgnored
Disliked50 trades
40 winners
10 loosers
winners bring 32 units, loosers loose 10...so thats 3,2 to 1 win loss ratioIgnored
DislikedFor example, if his prob. winning 1 unit is 0.6 and losing 1 unit is 0.4, what is his probability of having ever losing more than or equal to 10 units after 30 trials?Ignored
DislikedThe expectancy of his "system" is very high (by real-life trading standards).
The math is not simple.
The chance of only a break-even result is very low after fifty trades
because of the high expectancy of this "system".
Likewise, the chance of a break-even or BETTER total gain after fifty trades is very high.
You could find an equity curve simulator (google) and input his values.
The answers you seek are related to the probability distribution of many "generated"
possible equity curves of 50 trades based upon his inputs.
I was...Ignored
DislikedI'm not a maths guy, but isn't that the probability of not having a win after 50 trades?
i think he wants to know what the proabality of breaking even after 50 trades?Ignored
DislikedYes you are correct, but from this we can estimate that probability is extremly low.
Anyone with 80% win ratio strategy should NOT be even asking whats the probability of winning after large sample of trades. He should be trading insteadIgnored