Macroeconomic Analysis

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Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some notes about Libor Indicators

This indicator (contrarian about to US stocks-market) is presented in two format: the spread in difference-format (long term frame in the first attached chart) and spread both in difference-format and ratio-format (10y frame in the second attached chart).
These charts shows an ascending array of bottom of curves post 2009, in divergence behaviour vs. S&P1500 tops-array.
Moreover the ratio-format is above previous 2010-top.
The financial stress, accordind to this indicator, is in increase from 2010.


Alert on Financial Stress Indicators.
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Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
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http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...045&mocktick=1

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Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some notes about Libor Indicators

The averaged TED-spread indicator (contrarian about to US stocks-market) is presented in two formats (spread in Difference-format and spread in Ratio-format) and two frames (long term frame and 10y frame) in the attached charts.
The long term curves shows the monster top obtained in 2008/2009 vs. tops of '70/'80.
These charts shows an ascending array of bottom of curves post 2009, in divergence behaviour vs. S&P1500 tops-array.
Moreover the ratio-format is above previous 2010-top.
The financial stress, accordind to this indicator, is in increase from 2010.


Alert on Financial Stress Indicators.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
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http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...045&mocktick=1

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Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some graphical notes about Cotton Future



Alert on Sky-Rocket & MeltDown Commodity Evolutions.
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Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=033661&p=w1

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Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some seasonal charts of Gold


► http://seasonalcharts.com/img/METALS-FUT/GOLD.GIF
► http://www.futuresbuzz.com/gold.gif



Alert on precious & rare commodity War 2.0.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some spread charts of Gold


► In the first chart there is the 200y DJ vs. Au spread (ratio-format; semilog.-style).
The notes are as follows (see also the second chart in linear-style).
In violet there is the band of 75% of confidence value of spread.
From 1925 the volatility of spread shows an increase above and below of the violet bands.
Ascending binary-lines (dark-gray), parallel to violet band, now are full-tested by prices.
Very interesting triangular structure from white circle, with tops and bottoms in-line; the next bottom will be in-line ???
Very interesting monster bullish-H&S structure, from 1929 until now; the dx-shoulder is in progress, with a bottom in 3-6 area (max 2-level).
Below the ascending binary-lines (dark-gray), there will be a probable giant bullish premium to Au vs. DJ; below 2-level there will be a meltdown of equity benchmarks.
Above the ascending binary-lines (dark-gray), there will be a probable big bullish premium to DJ vs. Au, until to median ascending line of 75%-band; above median-line there will be a new sky-rocket of equity benchmarks.

► In the III chart there is Au vs. some Au-equity benchmarks (ratio-format; linear-style).
The notes are as follows (see also the second chart in linear-style).
The spreads Au vs. Au-equity benchmarks shows anticipatory behaviours vs. Au-price evolution.
The spreads structure of 2008/2011 is similar to previous Au tops.
We are in the year of Au top ??? The spreads, after 2008 tops shows a flag-pattern; toward a II descending top of spreads ???
If spreads go below 2009-lows (horizontals square-marked), there will be a probable big bullish premium to Au-equity benchmarks vs. Au.

► In the IV (complex) chart there are two spread-formats between Au and S&P500: difference and ratio.
Trend-lines of D-spread are red-marked; trend-lines for R-spread are blue-marked.
On D-spread we can see a first cup (2003/2007: pink-gray), validated in bullish status and target meet at "A"-level.
A second cup (in progress: pink-gray) in building-status on the top-structure 2009/2011.
A III, monster-cup is marked with triangles (1997/2002) and include also the first cup (2003/2007); this monster cup has been validated in bullish-status with target at triangle-level or "B" level.
This spread shows the monster power of Au vs. S&P500; the bullish break of topping-cup increase the appeal of Au vs. S&P500.
Only below the binary ascending red-lines will cause a med.-turn of appeal (S&P > Au).
On R-spread we can see a first cup (in progress: blue) in building-status on the top-structure 2009/2011 (sse the II od D-spread); this cup is organized by a main descending blue-line.
A II, pyroclastic monster-cup, is marked on the neck with (1989/2011) a square-band and include the first as a driver for the bullish or bearish validation; the target in bullish-validation is the 'C' level.
R-spread above the main descending blue-line will cause a giant appeal to Au vs. S&P500.
R-spread not above the topping-cup, can cause a med.-term reverse of appeal (Au < S&P500) only below 2009-lows.

► In the V and VI charts (ema-format) we can see the monster bullish-array of relative strenght and D-spread of GLD-ETF vs. global stocks-market IOO-ETF.
In the Rel.Stre. the price-array is similar to a flag-pattern 2009/2001 (corrective bearish wave ???).
Above the descending line from 2009-top there will be a probable big bullish premium to Au vs. global stocks-markets.
Below the parallel segment 2010/2011 lows, there will be a probable bullish premium to global stocks-markets vs. Au; only below 2009/2010 lows there will be a real big turn of this bullish indicator.
The D-spread shows a megalithic bullish-array in all frames.

► In the VII chart there is a particular Rel.Stre. indicator. Above 0-line Au has a premium vs. IOO-ETF.
Now indicator-prices (lows of 2009/2011) are in divergences vs. IOO prices, are above 0-line and are above descending line from 2009-top; these are all bad signs (not signals) for the underlying stocks-market.
If indicator-prices go above ema-200/500 (bold-red and bold-white), there will be a probable new big bullish premium to Au vs. global stocks-markets.
If indicator-prices go belowe 0-line, there will be a probable new big bullish premium to global stocks-markets vs. Au; below the basal horizontal-line there will be a giant appeal of global stocks-markets vs. Au.

Short conclusion
Au shows a monster bullish appeal multy-yearly vs. stocks-markets.
Some signs shows the possibility of a new bullish wave in the appeal Au vs. stocks, but follows the signals on underlying prices evolution without anticipate the main trend.



Alert on precious & rare commodity War 2.0.
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Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
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Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some graphical notes about Sugar Future



Alert on Sky-Rocket & MeltDown Commodity Evolutions.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=080732&p=w1

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Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some historical charts of Gold


Alert on precious & rare commodity War 2.0.
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Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Notes on P&F-chart of Gold


Alert on precious & rare commodity War 2.0.
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Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
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H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some graphical notes about net-CoT chart of €uro Index

► The price structure of €-Index, from top to the bottom, is flag-like (two structure: white and red flag-like).
► The spread Commercial vs. Large has a monster-bullish array (compare to 2006 in bullish status; but also 2010 magnitude in bearish status !!!).

Follows the €-flag-like structures.
The possible bullish break of flag-like structure could be strongly bullish for stocks-market ???
The possible failure break of flag-like structure could be bearish (corrective?) for stocks-market ???



Alert on FOREX-War 2.0.
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Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' F0R€X-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
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Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

Notes on Gold


From first chart (hg-sx) we can see some key points of annual global Au production.
Circled (in green) zones are lows (see corresponding zones on price-chart: IV, dw-dx).
I lows of first chart are linked to pre-bullish phases on Au price-chart (chart IV: dw-dx).
In 2008/2009 there is the last low in annual global Au production (a new bullish-beast in action ???).

From chart II (dw-sx) we can see 3 slope increases of total cumulative Au production (blue-circled).
These 3 increases are linked to pre-bullish phases on Au price-chart (chart IV: dw-dx).
Now there is not an increase of curve-slope, post-'70.

From chart III (hg-right) we see that the spread between Au world resources vs. cumulative production, over the past two centuries, has gone negative just before the start of the new century (pink triangle), slightly earlier start of new Gold-bull 1999-2001 (chart IV: dw-dx).
Natural resources can no longer keep pace with the actual production of gold, with cascading effect on actual demand for gold.

Chart V (hg-sx) is the spread (or cumulative Gold-deficit) cumulative production vs. cumulate demand.
From 1950 the spread or deficit was always negative, cumulative production > cumulate demand.
From the beginning of the '90s (see star-marker, corresponding to star on price-chart: VIII dw-dx) has significantly changed its slope, and in the second half of the '90s, was definitely positive (area marked with red rectangle and red lines on the 3 curves and time axis: see same markers on price-chart VIII dw-dx).
Moreover, spread slope has increased in 2001 (GOLD-bull start).
From 1999 to 2010 (12 years, inclusive of first and last), the spread has increased from approximately 0 to approximately +15000 tons. A similar spread increase has required, in the previous phase, about 35 years.
This means that since the beginning of the new millennium, the spread-slope has reached a 3X magnitude !!!

In the chart VI (dw-sx) there is the spread (or deficit) Au annual production vs. annual demand.
We can see a monster spread from 1987 about and increasing slope in demand vs. production.
The deficit shows an important main bullish trend (see ascending red-lines) and now (2002/2003/2004/2007/2008/2010), the deficit has the same value of the monster top of '60s.

In the chart VII (hg-dx) there is the spread between Au-demand Asian (ex-Japan) vs. Afro-Western (Japan included).
-) Overtaking Asia vs. Western is awesome.
-) The slope of the 1983/2007 Asian demand indicates a magnitude of about 10X!
-) These data do not include the seven gold years for India and China, with about 3 billions people who are pushing for change their standard of living from 1/100 to 1/10 of a western citizen.


Conclusive annotations
These charts shows that, structurally, there are data for incredible projections of the gold price.
Where we take all the required shining-metal in the next 4-7 years ?
The steady growth of the financial activities of the shining-metal how will impact on the availability of physical shining-metal ?
We are building the foundations for an asymptotic-crack among: availability of physical shining-metal; natural resources of gold; Au-future prices; financial assets Gold-based (ETF, ETC, ETN, Mutual Funds, ... ) ?


Alert on precious & rare commodity War 2.0.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
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Financial Markets Observatory Lab.


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Some charts about Japan MacroEconomy


►Japan the next armageddon home ???


Alert on Macro-Data
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Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' F0R€X-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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Chart about Unemployment


Alert on Macro-Data
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Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' MACRO-€MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
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Short update of Gold [ Au ] analysis.
Aurum Prices -- Previous analysis -- Previous chart -- Seasonal
http://charts.oilngold.com/ong/techchart.php?c=GC_1_60http://www.metalprices.com/images/me...bg/GOLD_bg.jpg
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx...ot=088691&p=w1

Attention to the chart-providers because they use slightly different sources of Au-price (spot, futures, continuous, all-contracts, nearby, last-month, adj., etc..) which may be slight differences in the lows and tops.
Au starts from 1969/1973, since as it is well known, the stage 1954/1968 was virtually graphically flat, and there was a need of a chart-zoom to highlight the price-action (in addition to a different scale), which otherwise would have been unseen for over a decade.

On the monthly chart, the main horizontal elements are as follows.
*) Lows 1982/1985 (blue-band), tested during the basin formation 1997-2002, starting point of the actual bull-trend.
*) top-1983 and top-1987 (banda celeste);
*) Horizontal among top III-IV quarters-1980 and top-2006, with descending spike-test in 2008.
*) Top-1980.
On the monthly chart, the main descending (red) elements are as follows.
The descending lines from top-1980 are numerous, but the main red-line is the descending 'top-1980, top-1996, multiple-test 1999-2001, bull-cross 2001'; in red-thin there are two parallel-lines.
On the monthly chart, the main ascending (blue) elements are as follows.
-) Top-1980 vs. top-2008 (blue-circled) with basal parallel-line (price-area: 745$ about), bull-crossed in 2009 (after setting a bullish cup pink-marked, with target just below 1400$ about).
-) Low-1976 vs. low-1985 vs. top-2006, with double ascendin parallel-lines (black triangle-marked) with a slope greater than the previous blue ascending; very interesting is the ascending black line passing through the top-1980 and fully intercepting the current top-2011 !!!

The graphic structures plausibly in action are as follows (there are possible alternatives).
A) Mega-Green Cup (1983/2005), validated in bullish-status in 2005/2006, with targets in sequence, shown with green bars on the right side of the chart.
The coincidences of the 3X and 5X targets with key-points of chart, make the structure very robust in long-term. The 11X target of this structure is 3332$.
B) Mega-Orange Cup (1980/2006), with plausible handle fuchsia (2006/2007), with 2X-price-projection with the same color bar on the right side of the chart.
The first price-projection (2X) has not identified a relevant price-area for the price-behaviour; the next projection 3X ranks well above the current high (1686$); 6X at 3120$.
C) Mega-bullish channel marked in blue, with price-area to about 745$, and passed upward during the spectacular graphical-contest 'bullish cup' pink-marked (2008/2009).
It was also performed a pull-back test on the above-ascending, during the low-2010.
In the case of validation of this structure, the targets would be as follows:
2X = 1770$
3X = 2515$ (= 10X lows 1999/2001)
4X = 3260$ (= 100X from lows 1954/1968 and 11X of 'A' structure-target and 6X of 'B' structure-target).
5X = 4005$ (200X from 1900 century lows).
If the structure of 'C' is actually perceived-followed by the market, we will see on the basis of price-action in the coming quarters.
Negation of the figure 'C' only if prices persistently and consistently below top-1980, with final cancellation of the figure 'C', under-2008 lows!
Same patterns ('A', 'B', 'C') are showed also by BGMI.
Before proceeding to the analysis of scenarios, it is preferable to se the complete (triple-century) Au-chart.

On historical GOLD-future chart (semilog.10-scale; 1720-2011 a.C.) we can see a monster triple-century giga-wave action in 5 waves, triangle marked:
n.1 - in 5 waves, with top at 55/60$ about in 1860 decade; total of wave n.1 = 5 decades about from 20$ to 55/60$ about (2.75-3.00X);
n.2 - in the first phase, 99% of (bearish) price-action of this wave in two decades about; in a second phase there has been a considerable price-stagnations (1880-1930 a.C.);
n.3 - in 5 waves, with top I in decade 1950, top II in decade 1970, and terminal top in 1980 at 875/880$ about; total action of wave n.3 = 6 decades about from 20$ to 880$ (40-44X);
n.4 - two decades about (1999/2001), with perfect respect of Elliott rules (non-entry into n.1; usual target into 'top-3.3 / low-3.4' area = 200-100$).
n.5 - terminal wave started from the double false lows (basin) 1999/2001, and in extension from low-2008.
This wave structure would seem orthodox and robust, with 5 in extension from the low-2008, and with the validation signal of bull-cross of n.3 (top-1980).
Calculate the likely final targets is absolutely a transcendent enterprise for myself. Meanwhile, however, we have a wonderful matching n.1 vs. n.3 on the duration: 5-6 decades !!!
It is very plausible to hypothesize that the current wave can last 0.618/1.000 times the previou waves = 3.1-3.7 / 5.0-6.0 decades, with plausible time-targets 2030-2036 (a.C.) and 2049/2059 (a.C).
On the price-targets we have the following projections in $:
- 1.000X full price-space n-1/n.3 = 1110$ (meets in 2009);
- 1.618X full price-space n.1/n.3 = 1640$ (see target 3X Mega-orange cup).
The projections in magnitude, could be as follows:
- same wave magnitude of n.1 = 693/756 $ (meets in 2006/2007);
- same magnitude of wave n.3 = 10080/11088$;
- 10X magnitude from the low of wave n.4 (= low wave n.5, 1999/2001) = 2500$ (see graphic structure of the aforementioned-"C" target 3X = about the 100-125X from low of n.1).
The latter target (about 2500$) has particular appeal for me, and I had this target in mind since from 2002 (the start of Au-bull).
The bullish-structure of gold stops if Au-prices (persistently and consistently) go inside the blue rectangle.
This structure is broken if the prices (persistently and consistently) are well below top-1980; there will be the reverse in primary bearish array if prices go below 2008 lows.

Scenarios
On Au-chart (1970/2011) the very interesting price-element seems to be the area of intercept between the pink-cup 2008/2009 (which evolved into bullish-status) and the upper edge of the blue rectangle.
This area seems to be a sort of boundary between a violent correction for Au of the bull born in 1999/2001, and rupture of the same bull.
The break would turn into primary bear-status only in the case of break of lows of pink-cup (lows 2008).
It is astonishingly wonderful to see the intimate association between:
-) the upper edge of the pink-cup and the upper limit of the blue rectangle;
-) the low of the pink-cup (lows, 2008) and the midline of the blue rectangle.
It is also A.W. (triple-century chart) to see the behavioural convergence of prices (orange circled: decades '60/'70 vs. decade 2000) between descending red-line 1860-top to 1940/1950-tops vs. parallel descending red-line from 1980-top !!!
There will be a convergence of price-behaviour after circled-area ??? From 55/60$ to 875/880$ (top-1860 decade to 1980-top) the magnitude is 14/15X about; the same magnitude from 1980-top shows a target of 12320-13200$ !!!
In practice, the pink-cup (also visible on Comex Stock Piles) would be the fuse or drivers (also in P&F format), of long-term in order to complete the bullish structure of the blue rectangle (in bullish status from 2009).
✔ If Au will shows a continuation bull (bullish progress of blue rectangle), targets are as follows:
▲1640$-1770$; ▲3120$-3332$; ▲4005$; ▲10080/11088$; ▲12320-13200$. End of bull (???): tg/I, 2030-2036 (a.C.); tg/II, 2049/2059 (a.C).
The CoT spread for net positions shows appeal for bullish-scenario.
Also the CPI-adj. format shows monster-appeal for the continuation-bull of Au, with a possible target to 5000$-area.
A complete view of multi-currencies of Au-price shows big appeal to bullish-scenario: G5, Y, €, GBP, Au$, Cd$, S.A.-Rand, Dabch. & KGX evaluation
Production, resource, demand data, and some spread-data vs. equity, shows strong structural appeal for bullish-status continuation of Au.
BGMI shows similar structural patterns on 40y-chart, with strong appeal of bullish scenario
For others Au-indexes patterns and Precious-indexes models, see these mini-reviews: Au; Precious.
✔ If Au will shows a turn in bearish-status, targets are as follows:
▼horizontal-line of top-1980; ▼h-line of top-2006; ▼med.-line of blue-rectangle; ▼Au-meltdown (h-line of top-1983/1987; lows 1985/1997-2002; collapse to '60-'70 lows !!!).
The trend of the Au-mines has significantly stopped, both locally (double top imperfect price), and in the internal composition. If such a stop would be exacerbated, with prices below the current 2011 lows, it may well be plausible a stop of bull in the underlying commodity [Au].
✔ Monster key prices: pink-cup upper and lower limits (also visible on Comex Stock Piles) !!!

In order to complete the Au analysis there are some notes on Gold Comex Stock Piles.
During the configuration of the top 1980, there was a significant difference between Au with descending tops vs. Comex Stocks Piles ascending tops (pink-rectangles).
The structure of the Au-C.S.P. shows impulsive behaviour during the formation of the 1980 top (impulsive waves: blue triangular markers; corrective waves: red square markers).
Currently, there were no differences in progress on the price-action Au vs. Au-C.S.P.
Currently there are evidence for a classification as impulsive price-evolution of the Au-CSP since 1998/1999 about.
Waves 1, 2, 3, 4 would seem to run out, while n.5 is still in progress (5.4 and 5.5 ??? in order to complete the top of the Au-C.S.P. ???).
Interesting bullish figure reported as pink-cup on the Gold 40y chart or gray in this Gold chart, is clearly visible even on the Au-C.S.P. (gray-cup: area circled 2007/2009).
The gray-cup price-target maintain Gold-C.S.P. in secondary bullish-array; the main trend of Gold-C.S.P. is, obviously, in hard bullish-array.
Bearish implications for Au, if the price-action of Au-CSP go below the horizontal gray (projection of the gray-cup 2007/2009).
Area of 9-7 mln of t.o. is the structural key point of chart, in order to maintain the actual bullish trend.

The word now falls to price evolutions.





Alert on precious & rare commodity War 2.0.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
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Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

Charts on Gold Volatility Indicators



Alert on precious & rare commodity War 2.0.
☻/
/▌
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Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

MACRO-ECONOMY LAB.: Employment data

The Total nonFarm Payroll Employment (private) is compared with two main benchmarks for equity (ema-format charts: prices replaced by exp.mov.aver.): IOO (for global equity) and S&P1500 (for US equity).
The indicator shows a bearish array as we can see from descending main lows.
This array is compatible with lows structure of two benchmarks.
The reaction of indicator from recent low is very little, comparing to equity recovery in the same period (2009/2011).
For this reason the Tot.nonFarm-P.E. include a strong risk of turn in a new bearish leg.
Recovery of indicator until to median (orange) trend-line is compatible with a simple recovery in a long term bearish status.
Only above the median line there will be a real turn of indicator in a new bullish status (medium-term frame).


Alert on macro-economy data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

MACRO-ECONOMIC LAB.: Employment data

The Initial Claim and the Continued Claim (in 4 weekly mov.aver.) are compared with two main benchmarks for equity (ema-format charts: prices replaced by exp.mov.aver.):
♚ IOO (chart; data) for global equity;
♛ S&P1500 (chart; data) (for US equity).

回 The first indicator shows a main trend (blue rectangle) bullish and a secondary trend (yellow lines) bearish.
Present top is in-line, about, vs. previous '80 tops, a giant divergence with equity benchmarks.
Now the indicator is below the previous secondary tops of '90 and '00, and also below an important yellow descending trend-line.
Indicator curve above green-dotted area has a bullish impact on price-evolution; below this green-area there will be a continuation-bear of the secondary corrective trend in action from recent top.
Only indicator-curve below ascending blue basal line of rectangle will cause a real turn in bearish-status of this indicator.

回 The Continued Claim shows a bullish-array more important than previous Initial Claim, with two ascending rectangle-types (dark-blue and blue).
Present top well above previou al-time tops, a giant divergence with equity benchmarks.
Now the indicator is inside green-dotted area; indicator above this green area has a bullish impact on price-evolution; below this area there will be a continuation-bear of the secondary corrective trend in action from recent top, toward blue-dotted area; only indicator-curve below this blue area will cause a real turn in bearish-status of this indicator.
A megalithic cup is visible on the chart, below previous '80 tops and marked with dark-gray area.
Target of this graphic figure has showed with dark-gray column on dx (actual corrective leg is a big pull-back on previous tops ???).
This graphical-target is a monster (with bearish impact) on equity benchmarks, but this figure is theoretically only.

回 The spread (r-format) of Continued vs. Initial shows the a bullish array about similat to Continued, with previous tops well below to the actual top and a strong bullish rectangle.
Also the megalithic cup (3.6 spread-pt.) is realized with a monster target at 12.9 pt.
Alert on descending yellow lines as the key-points for active reverse of secondary bearish legs in main primary bullish legs inside blue ascending-rectangle.
Only below the blue rectangle there will be a price-pattern in main bearish-status.

These indicators shows very negative data about U.S. employment, with a possible (delayed ???) negative impact on consumers and consumer.



Alert on macro-economy data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

MACRO-ECONOMIC LAB.: Employment data

The JobOpening Data are compared with two main benchmarks for equity (ema-format charts: prices replaced by exp.mov.aver.):
♚ IOO (chart; data) for global equity;
♛ S&P1500 (chart; data) (for US equity).

☑ The first indicator shows the total nonFarm red-curve, in a violent bearish-array as we can see comparing two main lows (see descending red-rectangle), and also by comparing actual indicator-level vs. 2002/2003 bottom !!!
☑ The second indicator shows the total private blue-curve, with about the same array of previous and about the same value.
☑ The government green-curve shows tops when equity shows bottoms; actual top is well above previous 2002/2003 top (diamond-markers). Government-curve has ascending pattern when equity has descending-array !!!
☑ The spread of Gov. vs. Priv. shows an interesting pattern:
-✓ monster ascending tops (red-diamonds);
-✓ hard negative divergence (vs. equity benchmarks) in 2006/2007/2008 (see blue-circles);
-✓ hard negative divergence (vs. equity benchmarks) in 2008/2009/2010 tops;
-✓ bullish-beast as a cup in dark-gray (neck in yellow), with realized target (see gray-column) and more !!!
If the spread go above 2002/2003 tops or above yellow-neck, there will be a new bullish leg on this (about)-contrarian indicator.
Below actual lows there will be a continuation-bear of this indicator.

These indicators shows very negative data about U.S. employment, with a possible (delayed ???) negative impact on consumers and consumer.



Alert on macro-economy data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

MACRO-ECONOMIC LAB.: Employment data

The first chart (triple curve) shows 3 spread of employment data, as we can see on the chart.
The unemployed data are compared two other employment data:
vs. Civilian Employment;
vs. Civilian Labor Force.
A complex spread is obtained from previous two with a simple algorithm (personal indicator).
These spreads are compared with two main benchmarks for equity (ema-format charts: prices replaced by exp.mov.aver.):
♚ IOO (chart; data) for global equity;
♛ S&P1500 (chart; data) (for US equity).

☑ The triple indicator shows an important bullish-array in long-term view, with a major recent top (II top of historical triple-curve).
An important negative divengence vs. equity benchmarks in 2000/2007 bottoms vs. tops.
If triple-curve go below orange-dotted area (see previous main tops), there will be an important increase in the probability of graphical sell-off of this indicator (positive for underlying stocks-market).
Above this orange-area there will be a mini-collapse of U.S. employment (negative for stocks-market).
The megalithic cup in progress (see green curve & marker) will be very dangerous if it is validated in bullish-status.

☑ The second chart (pink-curve) shows the spread between employed vs. U.S. population.
The bullish trend in long term view (gray ascending lines) has been broken during actual crisis, with a target well below actual level (basal gray ascending line about).
The new bearish-array (blue descending lines) is in violent progress and its origin is the two descending tops of 2000/2007 (in hard negative divergence vs. stocks-markets).
Moreover the actual level of indicator is well below previous '70-tops, and in-line with previous '50-'60-tops (yellow-circles).


These indicators, particularly the second chart, shows very negative data about U.S. employment, with a possible monster sell-off of U.S. employed in next years and violent negative impact on consumers and consumer.



Alert on macro-economy data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

MACRO-ECONOMIC LAB.: Employment data

Two alternative curves for employment evaluation in U.S. (see following links for data source and types):
Special unemployment rate;
BLS-Gov page;
Discouraged workers.
These indicators are compared with two main benchmarks for equity (ema-format charts: prices replaced by exp.mov.aver.):
♚ IOO (chart; data) for global equity;
♛ S&P1500 (chart; data) (for US equity).

☑ From 2002/2003 tops to actual tops we can see an increase of 1.7X.




Alert on macro-economy data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...graph_id=46176

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.



H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]

MACRO-ECONOMIC LAB.: Employment data

Two other alternative curves for employment evaluation in U.S. (see following links for data source and types):
Labor Underutilization; by Age.
Equity benchmarks for comparations (ema-format charts: prices replaced by exp.mov.aver.):
♚ IOO (chart; data) for global equity;
♛ S&P1500 (chart; data) (for US equity).




Alert on macro-economy data.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ ❣❣❣
I.M.O. by $@❣♆¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._2727979_n.jpg