Macroeconomic Analysis

H! ALL.
Some notes about US$-Index
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

A short screen of actual FOREX-war compared to US$ (start from first nov.09 week).
There are a monster-performaces of some commodity-currencies as SAZ, Au$, Cd$ and also from carry-trade currencies (SwF & ¥).


Tuned on Global FOREX-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
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I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ [❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤]

H! ALL.
Some notes about US$-Index
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In these charts there are some evaluation indicators about US$-Index.

In the first chart, US$-Index is valued by some goods, data, and services (in small there is the complete 1900-2011 chart).
The main elements are as follows:
-) the recent bullish pause (blue-circled: 2008/2009) of the secular bear-trend, is the biggest from great depression, and of similar magnitude (see blue-circled);
-) the 2008/2009 tops is below to 0-line and below to med.-long term band for bullish turn of indicator (gray-band);
-) the complete chart shows a 1-5 bearish legs compatible with a structural bearish;
-) the leg n.5 is in progress now (same extension of leg n.1 ???);
-) indicator shows a big momentum loss (during the bearish trend) as in 1998/2001 (or superior).
NOTE. - This indicator shows a structural and secular bearish-array; but it shows also a giant momentum-loss of this array during the leg IV.
According to this indicator, the probability of stop of US$ bear, are very high in these years (2011/2013); there is an important convergent morphology of curve during leg 1&2 and 4&5?.

In the second chart, US$-Index is valued by Au and Crude Oil WTI cash index.
The main elements are as follows:
-) first bearish leg (1984/1987: 0.34 pt, loss 66.7%; first red-square) is very similar to second bearish leg (2001/2009: 0.36 pt, loss 88%; second red-square);
-) indicator shows an elegant lateral-bearish channel (yellow marked) in perfect set-up now with prices;
-) a minor channel, but ascending (green marked), has been broken in 2002/2003, with target perfectly matched on 0.05-line !!!
-) from 2007 indicator shows an important momentum-loss of bearish-trend.
NOTE. - This indicator shows a structural bearish-array from 1984.
There is a multiple set-up from green-rectangle, yellow-rectangle and legs structure, very hard to break in downward.
Moreover the II bearish leg shows a 2001 correction similar to 2008/2009 correction: legs n.2 and 4 ???
According to this indicator, the probability of stop of US$ bear, are very high in these years (2011/2012).

In the III chart (two algorithm curves), US$-Index is valued by Au and Crude Oil WTI, but in contrarian-format and from future-prices.
The main elements are as follows:
-) the yellow-curve has an anticipatory begaviour vs. violet-curve;
-) yellow-curve shows an important and structural momentum-loss during 08/11 vs. 01/07, but tops have ascending-array;
-) violet-curve shows a momentum-loss greater than yellow-curve, and two main tops area about in-line.
NOTE. - This indicator shows a structural bearish-array from start.
Yellow-curve shows high probability of new lows for underlying US$, but the violet-curve is very weak in the renewal of the tops.

The following ETF spreads short vs. long (contrarian to US$) are personal indicators used in order to obtain useful (but not quantitative) information about hedge.-position on US$-based funds (in the first there is also US$-Index in green daily-close), on 3y frame.
These indicators shows a compression of curves (top in descending-array and lows in ascending-array) as of underlying.
This cone in closing-action is an accumulator of directional energy for prices after the key-break of main lines.
Now the prices are very proximal to upper-lines.
NOTE. - Indicator-prices above these upper-lines, pushes US$-Index toward new and important lows, in a mini sell-off action.
In this scenario we can see two type of loss:
minor, if action is completed by minor cup (2010/2011);
major, if action is completed by major or double cups (2008/2011).
The probability of new US$ lows are very high in this year, but the signals on these contrarian and indicators are not yet visible (bull-cross of upper-lines).



Tuned on Global FOREX-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ [❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤]

H! ALL.
Some notes about US$-Index
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In these charts there are some evaluation indicators about US$-Index, particularly from FOREX-data.

In the first chart, US$-Index is valued by indicators of Trade Weighted Ex., both in difference-format and in ratio-format (indicators in-phase vs. US$).
The main elements are as follows:
-) in the spread-type n.1 we can se prices above two main descending-rectangles (loss of bearish components on US$ from main currencies vs. all); in n.2 we can see a big momentum-loss from 2003/2004 (loss of bearish components on US$ from main currencies vs. all);
-) 1998/lows-line as a key-marker for important med.-term reverse of indicators; in n.1 prices above, in n.2 prices below;
NOTE. - According to these indicators the trend of underlying shows a bearish-status in long-term but important momentum-loss elements are visible; the major currencies shows a momentum-loss in US$-bear greater than all currencies. A divergence-base is in development???

In the first FOREX-based indicator, US$-Index is valued by main European curr.cross. (indicator contrarian to US$).
The main elements are as follows:
-) in-line lows of '05/'06, '08/'09, '10 (divergence vs. US$ tops);
-) the strong sell-off of indicator from top has impulsive-array (indicator serching for a divergence-top vs. US$-Index new low ???).
NOTE. - This indicator shows a structural bearish-array from 1999, with med.-term side-trend in action.
The white-cup is the key-element of chart (bearish double-tops vs. bullish-cup) with important effects on underlying.
The momentum-loss of indicator bull-trend (contrarian to US$) is very important.
European main currencies shows local weakness against US$.

In the II FOREX-based indicator, US$-Index is valued by some B.R.I.C. curr.cross. (indicator in phase to US$).
The main elements are as follows:
-) bullish-array of indicator from start and lateral-bullish array from 2002 (divergence vs. US$);
-) in-line tops of 2002/2009 (divergence vs. US$ tops);
-) the bullish-leg 2007/2009 has impulsive structure ??? (top > of 2002-top); 2009/2011 action appear as a corrective flag.
NOTE. - This indicator, not contrarian to US$, shows a structural bullish-array from 1999, with med.-term side-trend in action.
The bull-leg '07/'09 and the flag-like action '09/'11, shows a great loss of power in B.R.I.C.-currencies vs. US$ in bear-components of underlying-trend.

In the III FOREX-based indicator, US$-Index is valued by some commodity-curr.cross. (indicator in phase to US$: Au$, Cd$, SAR, Nz$).
The main elements are as follows:
-) bullish-array of indicator from start and bear-trend array from 2002 (divergence vs. US$);
-) in-line lows of 2004/2005/2008/2010 (hard divergence vs. US$ lows).
NOTE. - This indicator, not contrarian to US$, shows a great difficulty in making new lows since 2004.
Moreover, the current 2004/2010 lows are reinforced by significant horizontal and ascending levels, that make it difficult a new sell-off of the US$ against commodity-currencies.
End of $ bear in next 1-2 years ???

In the IV FOREX-based indicator, US$-Index is valued by some Far-East curr.cross. (indicator in phase to US$).
NOTE. - Also this indicator, not contrarian to US$, shows a great flag-action from 1998 and a difficulty in making new lows since 2007.
This indicator apper to search a divergence-low vs. new US$-low in 2011/2012.

In the V FOREX-based indicator, US$-Index is valued by 4 main curr.cross. (contrarian to US$)
The main elements are as follows:
-) bullish-array of indicator from start, and side-trend array from 2008;
-) in-line tops of 2008/2009/2010/2011;
-) important momentum-loss of bull-trend because of double-test of rectangle-base post-2008 and none on upper level.
NOTE. - This indicator, contrarian to US$, shows a fractional new top post-2008, in divergence vs. US$; moreover the trend in in hard bullish-status with an important momentum-loss post-2008.
New lows in US$ are very probable, but the momentum-loss is strong.


From these indicators (and from previous post) we can see:
high probability of new lows in US$;
high probability of bearish-array stop of US$ trend in 20011/2013, in order to build a big bull-leg directed at descending-line linked 1985/2001/2002 tops, and then on 120-line.

Tuned on Global FOREX-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ [❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤]

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...ate=2011-03-13
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H! ALL.
Some notes about US$-Index
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In these charts there are some monthly oscillators of US$-Index and an evaluation indicator of US$-Index, based on FOREX-data of ¥ and SwF (in contrarian behaviour vs. underlying).

MACD, RSI, RoC, TRIX shows important and structural divergences between lows of oscillators vs. underlying US$, as marked by red-lines.
Important but local-only, divergence also from CCI.
Ult.Osc. without divergence, but at historical low in 2008 (searching for a new and ascending bottom vs. US$ in 2011/2012 ???).
Monthly-ema array is very similar to previous bottoming structure (see yellow-circled areas); also the bottom-building is very similar ('88/'95 vs. post-2004).

From CoT data we can see a double and increasing megalithic bullish spread in the last two corrective ascending-legs of US$ (first and second accumulative positions in long term ???).

From ¥ & SwF contrarian indicator we can see an hard bullish-trend but with big momentum-loss (double top).

NOTE. - Oscillators shows the possibility of new lows in US$ but the divergences calling for a probable final bottom in these years (2011/2013). CoT-chart confirm two giant spots of accumulation.
Only the US$-prices will tell us if the odds seen in these posts will be translated into bullish-action of underlying (multi-yearly reverse).




Tuned on Global FOREX-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ [❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤]

H! ALL.
Some notes about US$-Index
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In the first chart there is a benchmark based on a basket of 15 Asian currencies (electric-blue curve) vs. US$-Index (violet-curve).
Basket and US$ have contrarian price-actions, about, as we can see from comparative bars red-marked.
New tops for basket are not accompanied by new US$ lows post-2008 (momentum-loss ???).
Hard slope in basket lows, post-2008, but about horizontal slope in US$ tops (momentum loss ???).

From the second chart ( in triple daily ema-5/10/20 there is the spread basket-ETF vs. US$-Index; in daily-close blue-curve there is US$-Index) we can see:
- new tops of spread but no new lows of US$ (post-2008);
- hard slope of lows for spread but hard momentum-loss in new tops (post-2008).

There are some signs for new lows of US$ in short term, but there are visible signs of momentum-loss from the Asian currencies-basket.



Tuned on Global FOREX-War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ [❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤]

H! ALL.
Some notes about Breadth Indicators
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.


CHART - daily ema-format of Total Volume vs. Adv.Volume on NYSE.
(indicator contrarian vs. US stocks-market as S&P1500 in green daily-close; indicator frame: red-ema as long-term, blue-ema as med.term).
Tops 2008/2009 shows an important anticipatory behaviour of this indicators.
Ema-crosses as important trend-turns.
Now the indicator lows are in hard divergence vs. S&P1500 on 2010/2011 tops (negative sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in medium-term).
Top of june.2010 > of top march.2009, and in-line vs. 2008-tops (negative structural signs, not signals but signs, for stocks-market).
Main lows have in-line array (negative structural signs, not signals but signs, for stocks-market).
In the short-term (2011) indicator do not shows divergences vs. S&P1500 (positive sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market).
Nov.2010 is a key-zone for this indicator; above its top there will be a med.term strong buy-signal for indicator; below its low there will be a continuation-bear for indicator.
This indicator suggests as follows for the underlying:
-) bullish-trend started in 2010 is OK, but there is an important attempt to reverse (see set-up of blue vs. red ema);
-) there are not important divergence as in 2008/2009, and for this the bullish trend is OK for underlying;
-) some structural divergences are very negative for the underlying in long term;
-) it is interesting the time-distance (months) between lows of aug.2009 vs. apr.2010 (turquoise markers) !!! If time-distance will be the same, the next indicator-low there will be in october 2011 (III/IV quart.2011) ???

CHART - daily ema-format of Decl.Volume vs. Total Volume on NYSE.
(indicator contrarian vs. US stocks-market as S&P1500 in green daily-close; indicator frame: red-ema as long-term, blue-ema as med.term).
Tops 2008/2009 shows an important anticipatory behaviour of this indicators.
Ema-crosses as secondary trend-turns.
Now the indicator lows are in hard divergence vs. S&P1500 tops in 2009/2011 (negative sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in long-med.-term).
Top of june/july.2010 > of previous tops but not of march.2009-top (positive sign, not signal but sign, for stocks-market).
Main lows have bullish-array (negative structural sign, not signal but sign, for stocks-market).
In the short-term (2011) indicator shows divergences vs. S&P1500 (negative sign, not signal but sign, for stocks-market).
Indicator 2011 top is above Nov.2010 as blue-line but not with red-line; above nov.2010 top there will be a med.term strong buy-signal for indicator; below nov.2010 top there will be a continuation-bear for indicator.
This indicator suggests as follows for the underlying:
-) bullish-trend started in 2010 is stopped as we can see from two red markers and from ema-array (blue > red);
-) there are some important divergences as in 2008/2009, and for this the bullish trend is not OK for underlying;
-) some structural divergences are very negative for the underlying in long term;
-) it is interesting the time-distance (months) between descending double-lines intercept vs. indicator (oct.2009) and lows of apr.2010 (turquoise markers) !!! If time-distance will be the same, the next indicator-low there will be in july 2011 (III quart.2011) ???

CHART - daily ema-format of Adv.-Decl. Volume vs. Total Volume on NYSE.
(indicator in phase vs. US stocks-market as S&P1500 in green daily-close; indicator frame: red-ema as long-term, blue-ema as med.term).
Lows 2008/2009 shows an important anticipatory behaviour of this indicators.
Ema-crosses as important trend-turns.
Tops 2009/2010/2011 (circled markers) shows hard divergences vs. S&P1500 tops (negative structural sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in long-med.-term).
Lows of june/july.2010 < of previous lows but not of march.2009-top (positive sign, not signal but sign, for stocks-market).
Main lows have bullish-array positive structural sign, not signal but sign, for stocks-market).
In the short-term (nov.2010 vs. now) indicator shows divergences vs. S&P1500 for lows (negative sign, not signal but sign, for stocks-market).
Indicator 2011 tops are in divergence array vs. S&P1500 tops.
This indicator suggests as follows for the underlying:
-) bullish-trend started in 2008 is stopped as we can see from cone structure of main lines;
-) bullish-trend started in 2008 shows hard momentum-loss;
-) there are some important divergences as in 2008/2009, and for this the bullish trend is not OK for underlying;
-) some structural divergences are very negative for the underlying in long term;
-) above upper descending (red) line there will be the final (divergence)-top ???
Similar notes on the next CHART (daily ema-format of Adv.-Decl. Issues vs. Total Volume on NYSE).

CHART - daily ema-format of Adv.Issues vs. New 52/W-High on NYSE.
(indicator contrarian vs. US stocks-market as S&P1500 in black daily-close; indicator frame: blue-ema as med.term).
Tops 2008/2009 shows an anticipatory behaviour of this indicators.
Now the indicator lows are in hard divergence vs. S&P1500 on 2010/2011 tops (negative sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in long-med.-term).
Top of june/july.2010 > of previous tops but not of march.2009-top (positive sign, not signal but sign, for stocks-market).
Main lows have bullish-array (negative structural sign, not signal but sign, for stocks-market).
In the short-term (2011) indicator do not shows divergences vs. S&P1500 (positive sign, not signal but sign, for stocks-market).
Indicator 2011 top is above Nov.2010; above nov.2010 top there will be a med.term strong buy-signal for indicator; below nov.2010 top there will be a continuation-bear for indicator.
This indicator suggests as follows for the underlying:
-) bullish-trend started in 2008 is OK, but there is a secondary attempt to reverse (prices above top nov.2010);
-) some structural divergences are very negative for the underlying in long term (see structure of 2008/2009 vs. 2010/2011);
Similar notes on the next CHART (daily ema-format of New 52/W-lows vs. Decl.Issues on NYSE).




Tuned on these breadth-technical indicators of the stocks-market, but follows short-medium term signs from prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

H! ALL.
Some notes about Libor-like Indicators
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In the first attached figure there are 3 versions of TED-spread (contrarian about to underlying stocks-markets), with below a giant picture of its historical price-evolution as benchmark for the 3y charts.
In the first chart there are the two TED-spread, both in difference and in ratio format, on 3mo.-frame.
Prices of two format are above their main descending-lines (reds) and it is not a good sign (only a sign but not an operating signal) for med.-term of underlying.
Prices are also above of 2009-lows (bad sign, only a sign but not an operating signal, for med.-term of underlying).
Important divergences on two format both on difference and on ratio format (ascending-array of 2010/2011 lows) vs. stocks-benchmark ascending tops in 2010/2011 (bad sign, only a sign but not an operating signal, for med.-term of underlying).
On historical price-evolution we can see two "monster" divergences (structural bad signs):
-) on lows: 2000 vs. 2004/2005 vs. 2007;
-) on tops: 2008 vs. 2001/2002/2003 vs. 1987

In the second figure attached there are some indicators based on spread between "n"-Year Swap Rate vs. "n"-Year UST-Bond Yield (indicators contrarian about to underlying stocks-markets).
Year Swap Rate as rate paid by fixed-rate payer on an interest rate swap with maturity of ten years. Rates are for a Fixed Rate Payer in return for receiving three month LIBOR.
In the first chart we can see that all curves (1, 2, 5, 10, 30 y spreads) shows divergences (square-markers) vs. ascending tops of stocks-market in 2010/2011 (bad sign, only a sign but not an operating signal, for med.-term of underlying).
The averaged-spread curve shows prices below the two key points (circled), an important good sign for stocks conditions, but shows also an ascending pattern of lows in 2010/2011 in divergences vs. stocks tops-array (bad sign, only a sign but not an operating signal, for med.-term of underlying).
Alert above 2003-lows !!!
Continuation-bull pressure for underlying if prices go below basal ascending-line !!!
In the III chart the curve shows a monster bullish array (structural bad signs).
Below the diamonds-rectangle there will be a big bullish-pressure for underlying; below the squares-rectangle there will be a megalithic bullish-pressure for underlying.
The double lows 2009/2010 is very dangerous if prices do not go below !!!

In the III figure attached there are the LOIRS-spread.
These curves (contrarian about to stocks-markets) shows important short-med.-term divergences vs. underlying (bad sign, only a sign but not an operating signal, for short-med.-term of underlying).

In the IV figure attached there is the VIREX/2 indicator (contrarian to S&P1500), a very particular indicator: spread between S&P500 volatility indicator vs. UST-Bond yeld (frame 3mo.).
Also this indicator shows an important array of divergences 2009/2010/2011 (structural bad signs).


General comments.
These indicators are libor-derived and are contrarian to underlying stocks-markets.
They are used as financial stress indicators and shows important anticipatory behaviour vs. underlying (see 2008/2009 price-evolution).
These indicators shows important divergences in action vs. underlying.
The markets are preparing for the last leg bullish of this cycle (2008/2009-started) ???
Shuffle Up and Deal


Tuned on financial stress indicators of markets, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤

H! ALL.
Some notes about Financial Stress Indicators
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In the first attached figure there are two Financial Stress-Test Indicators (in-phase about vs. European stocks-markets) for European Markets.
These indicators shows important bearish-array of curves, particularly the second chart, because of important divergences on tops.
Now prices are in full-test (ascending pull-back ???) of aug.2010-lows lines; prices above this key-line, decrease the financial stress inside European Markets; prices below this line, cause a great increase in financial stress.
Bad sign from descending array of 2010 lows.

The Citygroup Financial Surprise Indicators (in-phase about vs. stocks-markets) are evaluators of financial stress inside financial markets.
G10, US and Emerging Market shows positive tops array, but EU-area descending-array of tops !!!
G10 and EM shows flag-like corrections in progress, but also local divergences on 2010/2011 tops !!! Prices not in contact with red-circled key-levels.
US shows very positive chart, with flag-break and new 5y-tops (no divergences on tops !!!). Prices not in contact with red-circled key-levels.
EU-zone in bearish-array of main tops, in bearish-array of local 2010/2011 tops, and prices close to red-circled key-levels (flag-like structure in alert).
US as a leader vs. other markets, EM included !!!

OECD leading indicators (in phase about vs. stocks-markets) shows important turns of two curves or closing of spread.
This curve-array has anticipatory value for important bearish turns of stocks-market underlying (see markers on previous spread-closing).
Europe shows a spread not in closing-array vs. other 3 charts, but Euro-area shows also more retard in curves behaviours (see red-area in 2007 bear-start).
If there will be a real spread-closing, we will see tops in stocks-market in next 2.5-3.5 quarters ???

ADS Business Condition Indicator, CFNAI and ECRI are all complex indicators related to GDP (in phase about vs. stocks-markets).
These indicators shows same array of GDP and local and/or structural divergences vs. underlying stocks-market.
ADS and CFNAI above the main descending red-lines are very important signs of structural bullish economy.
Below red-lines there will be a stop of qualitative bull of stocks; 0-lines absolutely important level for start (below) or not (above) of bear on underlying stocks-market.
Tuned on these levels (red-descending lines and 0-line).
ECRI shows important divergences vs. underlying tops (2009/2010/2011) but main up-trend is OK.



Tuned on financial stress indicators of markets, but follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤

H! ALL.
Some notes about global stocks-market benchmark
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In the attached chart there is IOO ETF as a global equity benchmark.
The chart is in ema-format (prices replaced by weekly exp.mov.aver.), and it is very simple.
The price-area of ascending 2009-leg is marked as orange-bar.
Starting from 2010 low, I suppose same price-extension (see yellow bar).
This target is coincident with an important 2008-top, and coincident with an important priceXvolume zone (green marked).
Now the prices are within the most important priceXvolume area; this area (upper and lower limits: 60/65$) is a key element for the medium-term evolution of IOO.
The main ema-knot at 60/63$ is a very hard level (good probability for up-break of 60/65$).
Slow volatility shows a bearish-array (god sign for IOO).
Tuned on these simply elements.


Tuned on main finalcial benchmarks, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤

H! ALL.
Some notes about global stocks-market benchmarks
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In the attached chart there is DGT ETF as a global equity benchmark for giant-caps.
The chart is in ema-format (prices replaced by weekly exp.mov.aver.), with 3 oscillators.
There are some important divergences in medium-term, as we can see from lines on oscillators.
An important alert for underlying.


Tuned on main finalcial benchmarks, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤

H! ALL
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some notes about Swiss Franc (SwF).

Charts, in daily ema-format, shows two currency crosses very important, in financial era post-2007.
These charts shows only big (theoretically) structures for long-term view, and not for short-term operating positions.

*) SwF/¥. - Megalithic monster in action (gray), as an asymmetric H&S bullish on 99-neck.
Ema-target (in bullish status) is a monster (price-area of head is 39 about): 138 !!!
*) US$/Swf. - Double lows (1995/1996-2004/2005).
Price-area in gray; bearish-validation in 2007 (first pull-back in 2008, second descending pull-back in 2010 !!!).
Ema-target from price-area, 0.46; ema-target from %price-area, 0.71.
Invalidation of the bearish-structure, just above (consistently and persistently) 2010-tops.

Alert on FOREX-War 2.0.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._5581997_n.jpg

H! ALL
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some notes about Swiss Franc (SwF).

Charts, in daily ema-format, shows two currency crosses very important, in financial era post-2007.
These charts shows only big (theoretically) structures for long-term view, and not for short-term operating positions.

*) Nz$/SwF. - Without a well defined structure; in hard berish-array as we can see from main descending-rectangle.
*) SwF/Zar. - Without a well defined structure; in good bullish-array as we can see from main ascending-rectangle.

Alert on FOREX-War 2.0.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
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H! ALL
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some notes about Nat.Gas.

Chart in natural-log format and in monthly-close.
The main trend is showed by an ascending blue rectangle, full-tested during 2009-lows, and now in descending re-tests by prices.
A consistent and persistent break of rectangle-base is an hard bearish signal, with a possible sell-off of NG-prices; 1-level (2.718$) is the maximum extension; below there will be the sell-off.
The rectangle break will cause the reverse of chart long-term ascending-array, with a monster reinforcement of secondary trend.
The secondary trend is in hard-bearish array, as we can see from red-descending lines, in full impact vs. rectangle-base.
Now there is a wonder set-up among rectangle, top-1997, and median red-descending line.
Above this wonder set-up, prices will be pushed to the recent 2009/2010 top (dotted area), in intercept (2012) with main (or superior) descending red-line.
Only above dotted-area there will be a first break of secondary bearish-array, with target on main descending red-line.
Above main descending red-line the secondary bearish trend reverse in a new bullish status (secondary).

According to this chart, the main levels are as follows:
1.20/1.00 in nat.-log (3.34/2.718$): below there will be a megalithic sell-off ???
2009/2010 tops: above there will be an attempt of giant reverse in bullish status ???
The switch-price is 1.4 nat.-log (4.05$) ??? The actual level of red-descending medium line !

Alert on n'RG-War 2.0.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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H! ALL
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some notes about Nat.Gas.

Chart shows some long-term oscillators on Nat.Gas prices.
With circles there are some interesting attempt-patters of reverse in bullish-status of secondary trend (see previous post).
These signs (not operating signals but signs only) should be closely monitored, but not anticipated.

Alert on n'RG-War 2.0.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._3332674_n.jpg

H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some notes about Nat.Gas.

In this monthly bar-chart we can see the following key-elements:
-) RSI in attempt to go above the first of two descending-rectangles; alert on 50-line;
-) MACD inside two descending rectangles (main trend bearish);
-) MACD, with two structural buy signs (circled), as an attempt to reverse the secondary bearish trend (2005-started);
-) bearish-leg 2005/2006 = bearish-leg 2008/2009 (A = C ???);
-) megalithic spread between commercials vs. trenders on net CoT chart, but without new lows.

Nat.Gas is under a monster bearish pressure as we can see from CoT; but there are some signs very important as the bullish array of MACD and 2005/2006 = 2008/2009 bearish-legs.
Very interesting the price-structure (see yellow squares) after nat.gas melt-down 2005/2006 vs. 2008/2009; this structural analogy should be studied.


Alert on n'RG-War 2.0.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._3332674_n.jpg

H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some notes about Nat.Gas. p r e v i o u s p o s t & c h a r t s

The very interesting price-structure marked in yellow squares of previous post (nat.gas price-evolution after melt-down 2005/2006 vs. 2008/2009), has been attached in the following comparative chart, with some notes.
► The bottom-top magnitude is comparable (2.1X vs. 2.4X).
► The price-behaviour on 50% (yellow horizontal bar) of price-area bottom-top is comparable.
► Weekly RSI (first oscillator) array is comparable (see markers).
► Weekly MACD (second oscillator) array is comparable (see markers).
► Weekly Full-Stock. (long-term frame; III oscillator) array is comparable only in part (see markers); in 2007 oscillator go above 80-line; now (2010/2011) now the oscillator is still below the 80-line.
► Price-array vs. weekly ema/500 (white) is opposite (see white circle); bullish reverse of Nat.Gas only if prices go above this ema; a second ascending test with prices not above w-ema/500, strongly increase the probability of big sell-off.



Alert on n'RG-War 2.0.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
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H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some seasonal charts of Nat.Gas.


► http://seasonalcharts.com/img/ENERGY-FUT/NAT_GAS.GIF
► http://www.futuresbuzz.com/natgas.gif



Alert on n'RG-War 2.0.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._3332674_n.jpg

H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some notes about Nat.Gas.
p r e v i o u s p o s t & c h a r t s

The study of the very interesting Nat.Gas price-structure post meltdown,
2005/2006 vs. 2008/2009 (see previous notes), shows
the similar pattern of price behaviour vs. fibs 0.500 (horizontal blue-line) and 0.618 (horizontal red-line),
and the opposite behaviour of price behaviour vs. weekly ema-200 (= daily ema-1000).
Follows these similar pattern.


Alert on n'RG-War 2.0.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._3332674_n.jpg

H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some notes about Libor Indicators

This indicator (contrarian about to US stocks-market) is presented in two format and in two frames.
In the first attached chart there are the long term frame of the spread in difference-format and the spread in ratio-format.
These long term curves shows the monster top obtained in 2008/2009 vs. top of '70/'80.
The 10y charts (II attached) shows a bottom of curves in the II quarter of 2010, in divergence behaviour vs. S&P1500 top in 2011.
The financial stress, accordind to this indicator, is in increase from 2010, and now the ratio-format is above previous 2010-top.


Alert on Financial Stress Indicators.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._3332674_n.jpg

H! ALL [bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Some notes about Libor Indicators

This indicator (contrarian about to US stocks-market) is presented in two format: the spread in difference-format and the spread in ratio-format.
These charts shows an ascending array of bottom of curves post 2009, in divergence behaviour vs. S&P1500 tops-array.
Moreover the first format shows very high financial stress level in 2010/2011 despite the great recovery in 2009/2011 of S&P1500.
The financial stress, accordind to this indicator, is in increase from 2010.


Alert on Financial Stress Indicators.
☻/
/▌
/|
Tuned on main trend of, and follows short-medium term signs from underlying prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' €MP¥R€ $0UND $¥$T€M$ !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥ ❤ █║▌│█│║▌║▌║| █ ❤
http://profile.ak.fbcdn.net/hprofile..._3332674_n.jpg

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...045&mocktick=1