Macroeconomic Analysis

HI ALL. Some notes about Volatility Indicators [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

An interesting long-term chart for Volatility Indicator of Nasdaq/100.
There are some regular patterns (ascending and descending lines) important for long-term picture.
The 2010 preliminary bearish sign of VIX (previous post) is partial verified in VXN.
Below the basal yellow line there will be a probable sell-off in volatility prices.

http://tzgerq.blu.livefilestore.com/...083.jpg?psid=1


Tuned on the megalithic structure in financial market but follows short-medium term trends.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Volatility Indicators [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

An interesting long-term chart for Volatility Indicator of QQQQ.
There is the 2010 preliminary bearish sign as VIX and VXN (previous posts).
Below the basal dotted line there will be a probable sell-off in volatility prices.

http://tzgerq.blu.livefilestore.com/...084.jpg?psid=1


Tuned on the megalithic structure in financial market but follows short-medium term trends.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about IFO Indicators [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

IFO World Economic Indicator (chart I) shows the following graphical signs:
-) bearish-array from 1993 (hard divergence with S&P500 as world benchmark for stocks-market);
-) main 1990/1992 lows and main 1999/2001 lows (in diamonds: duration 2.0/2.5 years) have similar price-level of indicators;
-) now the red curve is in full descending-test of orange-average;
The next bottom of red-curve is 2.0/2.5 years from I/quart.2009 ??? Time-target II-III/quart.2011.

IFO World Economic Expectations Indicator (chart II) shows the following graphical signs:
-) perfect triple tops and 20-y low in 2009 (hard divergence with S&P500 as world benchmark for stocks-market) for red curve;
-) blue histograms in bearish-array in 2010 but above mid-line;
-) histograms below medium-line is a bearish signal for S&P500.


The main results are:
*) actual condition have bearish structure in long-term and neutral structure in short-term;
*) the expectations for next 6 month (blue histograms) shows a corrective action, with a probable II important low in 2011.
It is very important to study the position of next low in equity benchmark, in order to obtain informations about the possibility that the next low is the last before a new big bearish-turn (toward a 2013 collapse) or the second of a new megalithic bullish-wave as ''70.

Tuned on the megalithic structure in financial market but follows short-medium term trends.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...228&mocktick=1

HI ALL. Some notes about Nat.Gas [bad English, sorry http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums...lies/frown.gif]

On Nat.Gas future chart the analogy between sept.06/sept.07 [pre-skyrocket of 2008] and now, sept.09/autumn.10 has been confirmed.
previous post


Now the future of Nat.Gas price action is the following.
-) On nearby contract in monthly-close the price-action is included in a big ascending rectangle and has a bullish-array structure in long term frame. Below 1983/1984 tops level the nrg-commodity may collapse. Important dinamic level is the basal line of rectangle in progress. Above 2007-lows/2009-tops there is a strong bullish signal for the wonder BLUE.
-) On all contract the price-action (confirmed the analogy) is in bullish-status on the ascending-(blue)-line, but in double full descending-test, both on ascending-blue-line and on 1995/1997-tops level (3.8$ about). Below this important set-up the nrg-commodity may have a mini-collapse (see 1990-tops and 2009-lows). Above 1996-tops the wonder BLUE gains a bullish status in medium-term.
-) COT-chart shows (blue-curve = hedgers = commercials = nat.gas operators; green-curve = financials = trenders = large traders) the "megalithic" bearish spread for nrg-commodity, but with some signs (see lines) of interest for next possible turn-levels in COT-positions.


PREVIOUS CHARTS USED:
All contract curve
Nearby and all-contract curve
All-contract
All-contract big-chart


Prices are at a point historically important and it is very important do not anticipate the main trend (risk of mini-collapse).
Tuned on beautiful blue.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about WTI [bad English, sorry http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums...lies/frown.gif]

.... I do not understand ... as usual !!! ...
... But what happens to the WTI ??? ....
.... The spread of commercial traders (= hedgers; blue-line) vs. large (= financials = trenders; green-line) traders is megalithic !!! ....
... Maybe they expected a micro-ice age ??? ...
.... I joke of course ... or not ???


Prices above the gray-box go to gray-line at 110$.


It is very important do not anticipate the main trend, but follows the short-term trends.
Tuned on .... micro-ice age.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Euro-area main currencies [bad English, sorry ]

a) GBP is in hard bearish-array vs. US$ (green line of chart I).
b) € is in bearish side-trend vs. US$, with important-area 2008/2009-lows for a complete turn in bearish-status (red line of chart I).
c) It is is very interesting the chiral-array of US$/SwF vs. €/US$, with US$/SwF (blue-curve of chart I) in preliminary sell-off.
d) €/GBP in lateral-bearish flag (pause of bull-trend ???); 0.77 important-level.
e) €/SwF in sell-off more than US$/SwF and GBP/SwF in bearish as US$/SwF.
f) ¥ vs. SwF in descending double top and in side-trend; 2009-lows very important for a bearish-turn.

http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?c...7%2C-320.89999http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...-30,2010-12-30http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?c...7%2C-320.89999
http://www.finviz.com/fx_image.ashx?...92866966766250
http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=E...t-IT&region=IT

It is very important do not anticipate the main trend, but follows the short-termprice-evolution.
Tuned on ForexWar.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Precious spreads [bad English, sorry ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In the first chart (green-curve) there is a large view of Au vs. Ag spread (about contrarian to global stocks-market), with underlying Gold nearby price (blue bars).
Some annotations are as follows.
-) The spread, in long term view, is in bearish-lateral array, with spread-price evolution internal to a descending rectangle (marked in black); main top in 1991, secondary tops in 1995/1996/2003/2008 (upper gray-zone) and a triple bottom (basal gray-zone) in 1998/1999/2007/2010.
-) In the medium-term, from last top (2008) of upper gray-zone, the spread-price evolution has a sell-off array (see little descending channel), with a second break of main ascending red 2-lines (in 2006 the first break).
-) A first bearish leg (start: 1991), has 53 spread pt = loss of 53.5%; if the actual bearish-leg (start: 2008) has same extension, the target will be 28 about (from spread-pt. calculations) or 38 about (from % calculations).
-) A second giant structure is the graphical contest between multiple tops vs. multiple lows (double gray-zone: 79/81 vs. 48/46; price-area: 34 spread-pt. or loss of 42.5%) with a bearish target (if spread go below 46-level) of 12 spread-pt. or 26.5 (from % calculations).
-) In the short-term the first bearish leg 2008/2009 has 23 spread-points about (circle red-markers); if the 2010-leg (diamond red-markers) will be of 23 pt, 47-area is the final target (also suggested by a previous P&F); as %loss the target will be 50-level. It can be possible also a 1.618/1.500 target-zone between spread bearish-legs, at 33/36-area.
-) Also in short term, a descending double tops 2009/2010 has 12 of spread-pt. (gray-cup); berish-break of figure low has happens in october.2010 and the target is 47 about !
The spread is in bearish-array on all frames and it is in full-test of basal gray-zone.
Structural bullish turn on spread (bearish impact on stocks-market) there will be only above red-ascending 2-lines (= above 2009-lows).
New bearish energy for spread (positive impact for stocks-market), below basal gray-zone (a real structural pivot of Au/Ag), with targets as above.
For the spread evolution, the basal gray-area has high probability of: a) an important low; b) a melt-down point.

Some structural notes are as follows:
- double tops 2003 vs. 2008 is in divergence with same lows on stocks-market (positive sign for stocks-market ???);
- the multiple-bottoms on basal gray-zone is in total divergence with same stocks-market tops (negative sign for stocks-market ?);
- the global descending-array of spread according to ascending-array of stocks-market.



Tuned on the Precious & Rare commodity evolution.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Precious spreads [bad English, sorry ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In the first chart (green-curve) there is a large view of Au vs. Cu spread (about contrarian to global stocks-market), with underlying Gold nearby price (blue bars).
Some annotations are as follows.
-) The spread, in long term view, is without main trend direction, with absolute low and top in 2006 and 2008; 2009/2010 in hard bearish-array.
-) Two gray-zone appear as the main spread pivots (upper tops: 1993, 2002; basal lows: 1990, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2004), with medium level marked in black.
-) Long-term triangle (lines: red-descending vs. black-ascending) in full test on base; target on 2006/2007-lows if spread go below black-ascending lines.
-) The 2010 reverse-cup (in gray) also shows a target on 2006/2007-lows if spread go below 2010-lows.

Spread below basal gray-zone is a very bullish sign for stocks-market.
Spread between basal gray-zone and basal triangle-line could be a sign of exhaustion of the spread decline.
Spread above triangle is a sign of hard stress in financial markets; above upper gray-zone is a sign of collapse.
The med.point of gray-zones play a selector role in the stocks-market trend-switch ???



Tuned on the Precious & Rare commodity evolution.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Precious spreads [bad English, sorry ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In the first chart (green-curve) there is a large view of Au vs. Pt spread (about contrarian to global stocks-market), with underlying Gold nearby price (blue bars).

Some annotations are as follows.
-) The spread, in long term view, has bearish-array, with descending tops and a flat-base array of lows (post 2000).
-) Two gray-zone are the main pivots of spread: upper (tops of 1991, 1993, 1996, 2008) and basal (lows of 1988, 1989, 2001, 2009, 2010, 2001-top; big bear-cross in 1999 with stocks in hard bull; big bull-cross in 2008 with stocks in melt-down), with medium level marked with black-diamond.
-) Medium-term bear-trends (1991/2001; 2008/2010) inside little parallel channels.
-) Important base of lows 2000/2001/2004/2008 in hard divergence with stocks-market tops during same period.
-) The 2009/2010 cup (gray-area with gray-diamond) shows a target on 2000/2008 base if spread go below 2009-lows (sky-rocket of stocks ???); spread above the med.-point, push the curve toward upper gray-zone (great stress increase in financial markets).

Spread below basal gray-zone is a very bullish sign for stocks-market.
Spread between basal gray-zone and med.-point could be a sign of exhaustion of the spread decline.
Spread above med.-point is a sign of hard stress in financial markets; above upper gray-zone is a sign of collapse.
The med.point of gray-zones play a selector role in the stocks-market trend-switch ???


Tuned on the Precious & Rare commodity evolution.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.



I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Precious spreads [bad English, sorry ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In the first chart (green-curve) there is a large view of Au vs. Pd spread (about contrarian to global stocks-market), with underlying Gold nearby price (blue bars).

Some annotations are as follows.
-) The spread, in long term view, has bearish-array, with descending lows and double tops (see black-bold lines), not considering the topping-spikes.
-) Two gray-zones are the main long-term spread-pivots: upper (tops of 1990, 2009) and basal (lows of 1989, 1995, big bear-cross in 1997, top of 2004/2005/2007 and new bear-cross in 2010.
-) Important base of lows 2004/2006/2007/2008/2010 in medium-term, now is full-tested by spread-prices; this zone is in hard divergence with stocks-market tops during same period 2000 vs. med.-term gray-zone.

Spread below two basal gray-zone (long and medium-term) is a very bullish sign for stocks-market.
Spread inside upper descending (bold-black) rectangle is a sign of a new stress phase in financial markets; above upper gray-zone is a sign of collapse.


Tuned on the Precious & Rare commodity evolution.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.



I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Lumber Future [bad English, sorry ]
http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=LB&p=w1&s=m

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Chart I is a monthly-bars 1973-started with two oscillators 1983-started.
Chart II is a giant lumber price-action CPI-adj., stop to 2009, with a seasonal 37y-based and a 6y CoT chart.

Some graphical notes are the following
-) Strong directional action in 1970-1993 (recent top).
-) Main lows and tops post-1993 have descending-array; main lows of 40y-chart have ascending-array; 1993-now is a corrective giga-flag ???
-) Some recent bearish actions post-1993 have a descending-channels organization.
-) After 2009-lows prices go inside main ascending rectangle.
-) Key level is 1979-top.
-) Important graphical contest during 2010, as a cup (in violet); target in 480/490 binary-level if prices go above double top of cup; target I in if prices do not cross the double tops of cup.
-) First gigantic structure the descending rectangle of 300$ about; second gigantic structure the ascending rectangle of 180$ about.
-) yearly RSI and RoC in bearish divergence on recent tops; RoC in bullish divergence on main lows and tops; RSI in bullish divergence on lows only.
-) In secular frame the trend is side-bearish, with a beautiful double bottom and a descending 5 tops (see yellow markers).

Long if cup is bull-validated, with target I the first mega set-up (green-area) in up, target II the binary top-level (orange-area) [follows the oscillators divergence]
Possible sky-rocket of commodity as we can see from secular chart (level: 480/510$)
Short if there is a failure of cup (see oscillators divergence), with target I the first mega set-up (green-area) in down, target II the melt-down of commodity.
The CoT chart shows a mega-spread bullish for the commodity.



Tuned on the commodity evolution.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.



I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some charts about Metals [bad English, sorry ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

http://i54.tinypic.com/34928t1.jpg

Tuned on the metal commodity evolution.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.



I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

H! ALL.
Some notes about Stocks-market
[bad English, sorry ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In these multi-charts there are some leading indexes vs. the global US index of stocks-market: S&P1500.

In the first 4 charts there are some financial indexes.
Chart sx-top. - R-1k Global Financial Index shows a bearish-array of two main tops, in divergence vs. S&P1500. This is a negative sign for stocks market in short-medium term.
Chart dx-top. - DJUS Bank Index shows a bearish-array of two main tops, in divergence vs. S&P1500. This is a negative sign for stocks market in short-medium term.
Chart sx&dx-bottom. - Broker Dealers Indexes shows a side-array of two main tops, in divergence vs. S&P1500. This is a negative sign for stocks market in short-medium term.
If these structures (see relative lines) will be a bullish-caps, there will(probably) be an interesting big bullish leg on stocks market in this year; a bearish actions of fin.-indexes toward 50% of cups, is compatible with bullish evolution of cups.
If these fin.-indexes will be below 2010-lows, there will (probably) be an interesting bearish-leg in the stocks-market.
Financial stocks shows weakness vs. market

In the second 4 charts there are some semiconductor indexes. All shows an impressive bullish-action from aug.2010, in super-positive convergence vs. S&P1500.
Tech.stocks shows great strenght than market.

The shipping industry is shown at the following link: Shipping Indexes charts
Stocks-indexes shows same bearish-array of financial-indexes.
BDI have a totally bearish structure and it is very negative for the evolution of stocks-market in medium term.

Tuned on the leading indexes evolution.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments and follows the short-term price-evolutions.



I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

H! ALL.
Some notes about Shipping Mercantile Indicators
[bad English, sorry ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

BALTIC DRY INDICATOR
Baltic dry index is totally divergent vs. S&P1500 or some global stocks benchmarks.
This index is in total bearish-array because of:
-) BDI-prices in 2008 loss 94.4% about from top to low (11800/660$).
-) BDI-prices fails to maintain above ascending black-line 2000-started; prices are below, now, to its parallel-line from 2008-low!;
-) BDI-prices fails ti maintain above ascending withe-band (parallel to main chart-tops: 2004/2007/2008);
-) 2009/2011 tops/lows-array have descending pattern (pink-area on the chart);
-) prices are below to hard-descending red-line (started from main chart-top);
-) prices are below to 2005/2006/lows!;
-) Simp.mov.aver. 50/200/500 and prices in knotting shows hard bearish-patter, with sma-50 < sma-200 < sma-500 (complete medium-long term bearish-array);
-) recovery structure, started in 2008, have legs too overlying (corrective-type?).
-) double-RSI have hard bearish-array (see lines and markers);
-) long term stockastic have hard bearish-array (see lines and markers);

Future graphical patterns
Loss% target as from 2008 top/low, start from 2009/2010tops. - 260$
Pink-rectangle. - with confirmed prices below this figure there will be a target (68.1% loss from point of break) of 430/440$.
Imperfect triple-tops array 2008/2010. - with confirmed prices below 2005 and 2010 lows, there will be a target (63.5% loss from point of break) of 620$
Black-rectangle (parallel to ascending black-line). - with confirmed prices below this figure there will be a target (59.3% loss from point of break) of 730/740$
Double-lows 2008/2011?. - 660/670$
These theoretical targets shows a probable large sell-off in this indicator if the continuation-bear does not stop.
The double-bottom (2008/2011?) hypothesis can lead to an increase of 1.500/1.618X of previous 2008/2009 bullish leg, with a target of 6000/6470$, in full impact with 2002/2003/2004 tops.

Why BDI is in hard bearish-array vs. global stocks markets, in hard (2009) bullish-status ???
Questo indice è pienamente comprensivo dei trasporti globali ???

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange, a daily average of prices to ship raw materials. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the Index tracks worldwide international shipping prices of various dry bulk cargoes. The index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Handymax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain."
The Baltic Dry Index represents the cost paid by an end customer to have a shipping company transport raw materials across seas on the Baltic Exchange, the global marketplace for brokering shipping contracts.
The index is quoted every working day at 13:00 London time. The Baltic Exchange is similar to the New York Mercantile Ex. in that it is a medium for buyers and sellers of contracts and forward agreements (futures) for delivery of dry bulk cargo. The Baltic is owned and operated by the member buyers and sellers. The exchange maintains prices on several routes for different cargoes and then publishes its own index, the BDI, as a summary of the entire dry bulk shipping market.
The BDI is one of the purest leading indicators of economic activity. It measures the demand to move raw materials and precursors to production, as well as the supply of ships available to move this cargo. Consumer spending and other economic indicators are backward looking, meaning they examine what has already occurred. The BDI offers a real time glimpse at global raw material and infrastructure demand. Unlike stock and commodities markets, the Baltic Dry Index is totally devoid of speculative players. The trading is limited only to the member companies, and the only relevant parties securing contracts are those who have actual cargo to move and those who have the ships to move it.
This index can be used as an overall economic indicator as it shows where end prices are heading for items that use the raw materials that are shipped in dry bulk.
This index is one of the purest leading indicators of economic activity. It measures the demand to move raw materials and precursors to production. Consumer spending and other economic indicators are backward looking, meaning they examine what has already occurred. The BDI offers a real time glimpse at global raw material and infrastructure demand. This could also be gleaned from looking at commodity prices, but there are substitution effects and futures contracts that make it difficult to interpret the impact of commodity price fluctuations. Additionally, nearly all commodities are seeing severe increases in prices in 2008 regardless of supply situations as investors seek to hedge their inflation exposure with hard assets.
Unlike stock and commodities markets, the Baltic Dry Index is totally devoid of speculative players.
The trading is limited only to the member companies, and the only relevant parties securing contracts are those who have actual cargo to move and those who have the ships to move it.
The BDI will show how much a company or country is willing to pay to import raw materials immediately. For example, if a Chinese company has contracted out coal prices for the next year from Rio Tinto (RTP), then the spot price of coal increasing after a mine accident will not impact that established contract. However, when this company is willing to pay more per ton to ship the coal than to actually purchase it, an investor can see that price growth is accelerating.




H&P INDICATOR
H&P Indicator (see below) chart has the following main points of interest:
-) during IV/quart.2009 - I/quart.2010 has completed a "U"-turn, in divergence with BDI (bullish during 2009);
-) main 30y top of H&P is in divergence with BDI 2008-top;
-) 2010 has an hard bullish-array in divergence with BDI, with side-bearish pattern;
-) legs-structure may be: A, price-area from 2183$ to 1000$ about ( = 1180 pt in 5 bear-legs); B, price-area from 1000$ to 1450$ about (= 450$, 3 bull-legs); C, 1450/317$ (= 1133$, 5 bear-legs ??? until now);
C price-target: A = C = 270, down of 47$ from last low value (= 3.2% of 1450); 90% loss top A = 220$; Statistical error 5-1% is compatible with 317 low, with validation of A=C.
-) prices are above the main 3 lows pre-2008/2009, but are included inside the descending pink-rectangle (now in full test);
-) prices are below the 10y average (red horizontal line);
-) the recovery of H&P Indicator in 2010 has a value of 2.4X from low. A bull-recovery (317-started) 2X-4X is compatible with maintaining of structural bearish-array.

A first structural bear-stop will be obtain when prices will be above to descending pink-rectangle.
A second and important structural bear-stop there will in area 1000/1270$, with structure in long-term side-array.
Turn in structural bullish-array above 1450-area.
Prices below the 600/500$-area push the indicator in a new bearish phase.
If the legs-pattern is correct we can see a recovery bullish tri-legs in action from 2008/2009-lows.
Area target for the recovery maybe 0.382/0.500/0.618 of previous bearish-action: 1030/1250/1470$ (0.618, according to reversal turn point 1450$).
Long-term MACD is in bullish turn (circled cross), in double outside from descending rectangle (in positive divergence with H&P), and above previous key-lows.

H.&P. Indicator [The Harper & Petersen Charter Rate Index [Start data: 1986; data frame: weekly report] gives a representative picture of the market - the overall index is based on a data pool.
A total of 8 individual indices are provided for container ship categories from 750 to 5,200 teu [class n.1 < 1000 teu; class n.8 > 4000 teu]. For each class of vessel, all time charter parties with a defined minimum or maximum term are included in the index.
Unlike other indices, the H.&P. Index redetermines weightings each year on the basis of the size of the fleet and cost-covering rates. It thereby includes only the tonnage available in the charter market. That means it gives the larger classes more weighting, and shows the market realistically.
The Indicator was developed in cooperation with leading academics, economists and shipping experts, including Prof. Berthold Volk of the Faculty of Shipping of the University of Applied Science Oldenburg / Ostfriesland / Wilhelmshaven.
Contrary to the Baltic indices of shipping (which focus primarily on bulk shipments of commodities), the H.&P. looks at a variety of Atlantic charter rates (relative to the cost of running the ship). Baltic index is up sharply from its lows of last year; H.&P. has not risen at all.
Moreover the BDI typically measures bulk cargoes - ore, crude oil, coal, grain. H.&P. typically measures finished goods (ex: the containers of LCD screens from Taiwan, Scotch Whisky from the UK, motorcycles from Italy and so on). And on my reckoning, it's a good indicator of global consumer activity and value-added conversion activity - which for a consumer-driven and high value-added conversion economy such as ours is surely the critical indicator.].




Tuned on mercantile marine transports !!!
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments and follows the short-term price-evolutions.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

H! ALL.
Some notes about Summation Indicators
[bad English, sorry ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

* Ema-format (prices replaced by exp.mov.aver. 5/10/20-daily; 3y frame) of Adj-Summation for NYSE (source: StockChart)
Adj.-Summation for NYSE shows the following key-structures.
-) Head & Shoulders (= bullish-beast; head may.08/jan.09, pink-marked), validated in offspring.09, with pull-back in 2010-lows, and with a final-target of 2350-2250 pt.
-) Two main levels as white-bands: +300/+400; -900/-1100 pt
-) Descending array of main tops from 2009 (red-markers), in divengence vs. NYSE Composite. Summation curve included in two descending-rectangles (white and red), in a corrective flag-like pattern.
-) Descending double-tops 2009/2010 with price-area of 950/1000 pt. (gray-dotted) and a final target (below feb.2010-lows) of -800 pt. about.
-) 2010-lows on multiple set-up among descending red-rectangle, neck of bullish-beast and descending of white-rectangle; moreover on perfect 0.618X bottom/top (green arch: 415 pt about) !!!
-) A small bearish H&S (aug.2010 - until now: green-dotted) is in progress vs. imperfect double-bottoms on +300/+400. Prices below the green-neck push summation on the main white-neck (bullish-beast not invalidated). Prices above autumn-2010 tops push summation to break white & red rectangles (bullish-beast confirmed).
The bullish-beast will be invalidated if prices go below the neck line, and then under the indicated 0.618X; below 0.618X-level there will be a probable mini-collapse of indicator, towards basal white-band (target of descending double-tops).
Prices above red-rectangle push summation on upper-band of white-rectangle; above this rectangle the bullish-beast go (probably) at target.
The chart drivers are the white-neck and small H&S/2-lows. Tuned on these structures.
Below this chart there are 3 oscillators: 2-MACD (short and medium term) and Full-Stock. (long-term) (source: StockChart)
MACD 2-lines at 3y-lows in 2010 !!! and in hard descending-array of tops (divergence vs. summation); particularly important the divergence 2010/2011 on tops !
Medium-term MACD below 0-line; short-term MACD in full-test on 0-line.
Full-Stock. with 4 descending tops, loss of 80-line and now below of 80-line.

* Ema-format (prices replaced by exp.mov.aver. 5/10/20-daily; 3y frame) of Adj-Summation for Nasdaq (source: StockChart)
Adj.-Summation for Nasdaq shows the following key-structures.
-) In previous quarters Nd/summation were inside a long bearish-rectangle (see H&S below), in divergence vs. Nasdaq Composite. The bull-break of rectangle has a final target of 750 pt about, realized (about) in 2010.
-) Head & Shoulders (= bullish-beast; head sep.08/feb.09, pink-marked), validated in offspring.09, with pull-back in 2010-lows, and a final-target of 1170 pt. The neck of this figure is also the upper-line of long bearish-rectangle (see above).
-) Two main levels signaled as white-bands: -300/-400; -1000/-1100 pt.
-) Descending array of main tops from 2009, has been broken in apr.2010-top (+50 pt), in divengence with Nasdaq Composite. Summation curve included in a descending white-rectangle, in a corrective flag-like pattern.
-) Double-tops 2009 with price-area of 600 pt. (gray-dotted) have failed to play because of new top in 2010.
-) Descending double-tops 2011/2010 with price-area of 1350 pt. (orange-dotted) and a final bear-target (only if below 2010-lows) of -2150 pt. about, and a final bull-target (only if above white-rectangle) of 1800/1850 pt about.
-) 2010-lows on perfect 0.618X bottom/top (green arch: 802 pt about) !!!
-) A small bearish 2-tops (nov.2010 - until now: green-dotted) is in progress. Prices below dec.2010-lows, push summation on the first white-band (bullish-beast not invalidated). Prices above 2-tops, push summation to break white rectangle (bullish-beast confirmed).
The bullish-beast will be invalidated if prices go below the neck line, and then under the indicated 0.618X; below 0.618X-level, there will be a probable mini-collapse of indicator towards basal white-band, and then to basal-line of long bearish-rectangle.
The chart drivers are the white-neck of bullish-beast and small 2-tops in progress. Tuned on these structures.
Below this chart there are 3 oscillators: 2-MACD (short and medium term) and Full-Stock. (long-term) (source: StockChart)
MACD 2-lines at 3y-lows in 2010 !!! and in hard descending-array of tops (divergence vs. summation); particularly important the divergence 2010/2011 on tops !
Medium-term MACD in full-test on 0-line; short-term MACD below 0-line.
Full-Stock. with 4 recents in-line main tops, but now, in full descending-test of 80-line.

* Ema-format (prices replaced by exp.mov.aver. monthly-1/3/9; 1986-start) of not Adj.-Summation for total NYSE Comp. (source: FreeStockChart)
Not adj.-Summation for NYSE shows the following key-structures.
-) Some main levels in colored horizontal lines.
-) This indicator runs inside a bearish channel marked with dotted-white lines (upper and lower limits).
In 2003 we can see a first bull-cross of this rectangle, followed by several tests of green-band and re-crossed of upper-line in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008.
In 2008 a fast collapse on the rectangle-base and then a new and final re-cross in 2009 of upper-line, toward a 3-tops above upper yellow-band (max from 1986 !!!).
The summation, after this triple historical tops, go on green-band in mid-2010 (0.618X of previous bottom/top area: 1537 pt !!!) for a new re-start of bull.
This dotted-white rectangle has a final price-target of 4800 pt about (see below). It is valid only if summation will be above green-band.
-) In 2007/2009 there is a bullish-beast figure, as an irregular Head & Shoulders (head in pink-dotted), asymmetrical shoulders and neck around 0-line.
This bullish-beast, validated during 2009, has a final target of 4800/4950 pt about as ema/1-month (see rectangle-target !!!).
-) The hard descending-array of tops 2009/2011 is in divergence with NYSE Comp.
-) The lines-pattern of 1997 and 2003 shows an interesting structure: when prices intercept the main descending lines there will be a final tops or about (as in 1989, 2002, 2007).
-) The behavious on green-band of 2010-lows is very similar to 2004/2006-lows.
Prices above the yellow-band push summation on rectangle/H&S targets.
Prices below 1987-top line, push summation on the 0-line and then on the upper-line of rectangle; new collapse of indicator below this area.


General comments.
In the long term, the continuation-bull appear as the pattern with more appeal (but follows the levels outlined).
It is possible a very hard bullish leg (sky-rocket) of summation during this year (II-III quarters), but it is very important to stay tuned on the levels signaled.
In the medium-term there are some signs of summation strength-loss, both for NYSE and for Nasdaq, and it is probable a bearish start in this month, of secondary degree; moreover it is important to follow the prices for a real confirmation.



Tuned on this foudamental breadth-technical indicator of the stocks-market, but do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments; alert(!) on the short-medium term price-evolutions.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' SOUND SYSTEMS !!!

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥
http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/2693/salvijpg3.jpg

H! ALL.
Some notes about A.A.I.I.
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In the chart of Bulls vs. Bears curves we can see:
- ascending array of bear-curve lows (pink square-markers); not a good sign for stocks-market;
- ascending array of bull-curve tops (blue square-markers); good sign for stocks-market;
- bull vs. bear knot in 2010 < 2009; good sign for stocks-market;
- ascending array of lows of bull-bear spread-curve (blue-line); good sign for stocks-market;
- in-line array (about) of tops 2011/2010/2009/2006/2007 of bull-bear spread-curve; good sign for stocks-market;
- descending-array of stocks-allocation curve, according to stocks-market; now in full-ascending test; good sign for stocks-market;
- ascending array of two main tops for cash-allocation curve (2002 vs. 2008); bad sign for stocks-market;
- actual lows of cash-allocation curve in full-descending test of previous lows (pink horizontal-line); bad sign for stocks-market.

General comments
Stocks-markets have an hard bullish trend as we can see from these sentiment indicators.
Tuned on the possible break of descending array in the stock-allocation curve, on a possible re-start of cash-allocation increases, and on a break of in-line array of bull-bear spread-curve. These events maybe a complex-sign of final bull-leg.



Tuned on sentiment instruments for financial study, but follows short-medium term signs from prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' SOUND SYSTEMS !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

H! ALL.
Some notes about N.A.A.I.M.
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In the chart of N.A.A.I.M. sentiment indicator we can see:
- new tops 2009/2010/2011 of indicator vs. 2008/2007 (yellow band); a good sign for stocks-market;
- local divergence between 09/10/11 tops indicators (in line: blue-rectangle) vs. S&P500 (ascending pattern); a good sign for stocks-market;
- the incredible 2010-lows vs. previous (circled); not a good sign for stocks-market.


General comments
Stocks-markets have an hard bullish trend as we can see, but there are some signs not good for the medium-long term.
Tuned on the possible break of local in-line array of NAAIM. This events maybe a sign of new (final ???) bull-leg.



Tuned on sentiment instruments for financial study, but follows short-medium term signs from prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' SOUND SYSTEMS !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

H! ALL.
Some notes about N.F.I.B.
[bad English, sorry ]
Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In the chart of N.F.I.B. sentiment indicator we can see that high value of spread blue vs. red curve (when blue superior to red) marks the start of important bear-legs in the stocks-market:
1988/1989
1997/1998
1999/2000
2007.
Now the pattern of two curves is similar to post-1990, to post-2003, and for these reasons, the pattern has bullish-array.

http://dshort.com/charts/economics/N...Confidence.gif


Tuned on sentiment instruments for financial study, but follows short-medium term signs from prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' SOUND SYSTEMS !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

H! ALL.
Some notes about personal Summation Indicators
[bad English, sorry ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In a previous post I have published some notes about Summation Indicators.
In this post there are some personal indicators (in phase with US stocks-market), called Hedge.-Indicators, involving Summation Indicator on NYSE vs.:
Chart A, vs. Volatility Indicator on S&P500;
Chart B, vs. ARM Indicator on NYSE;
Chart C, vs. Put/Call Ratio on S&P500 Index;
Chart D, vs. TED-spread.

Chart A:
Lows 2008/2009 shows an important anticipatory behaviour of this indicators.
Now the indicator is in hard divergence vs. US stocks-market on 2009/2010/2011 tops, and in full-ascending test vs. divergence-line ! (positive sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in medium-short term).
Lows of 2010 is in hard divergence vs. previous 2010/2009-lows vs. US stocks-market, except mar.2009 (negative sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in medium-long term).
Chart B:
Lows 2008/2009 shows an anticipatory behaviour of this indicators.
Now the indicator is in hard divergence vs. US stocks-market on 2009/2010/2011 tops, and in full-ascending test vs. main divergence-line from 2010-autumn ! (positive sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in medium-short term).
Lows of 2010 is in hard divergence vs. previous 2010/2009-lows vs. US stocks-market, except mar.2009 (negative sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in medium-long term).
Chart C:
Lows 2008/2009 shows an anticipatory behaviour of this indicators.
Now the indicator is in hard divergence vs. US stocks-market on 2009/2010/2011 tops (negative sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in medium term).
Lows of 2010 is in hard divergence vs. previous 2010/2009-lows vs. US stocks-market, except mar.2009 (negative sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in medium-long term).
Chart D:
Lows 2008/2009 do not shows an anticipatory behaviour of this indicators.
Now the indicator is in hard divergence vs. US stocks-market on 2010/2011 tops (negative sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in medium term).
Lows of 2010 is in-line with lows of 2008/2009 (very negative sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in medium-long term).

General comments
These indicators shows a decrease of market quality during 2010/2011 bull-legs, both from breadth and from options and bond-yields data.
The bullish break of the divergence descending-lines, could be the signal of bullish final-leg, before a major corrective wave.




Tuned on this foudamental breadth-technical indicator of the stocks-market, but follows short-medium term signs from prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' SOUND SYSTEMS !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

H! ALL.
Some notes about personal McCl. Indicators
[bad English, sorry ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In this post there are two personal indicators (in phase with US stocks-market), called Hedge.-Indicators, involving McClellan Indicator on NYSE vs.:
Chart E, vs. Volatility Indicator on S&P500;
Chart F, vs. ARM Indicator on NYSE;

Chart E:
Lows 2008/2009 shows an important anticipatory behaviour of this indicators.
Now the indicator is in hard divergence vs. US stocks-market on 2010/2011 tops, both on red-curve and on blue curve (see descending of same color; negative sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in medium-term).
Now red is in cross-array on blue (positive sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in medium-short term).
Lows of 2010 is in hard divergence vs. previous 2010/2009-lows vs. US stocks-market (negative sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in medium-long term).
Chart F:
Lows 2008/2009 shows an important anticipatory behaviour of this indicators.
Now the indicator is in hard divergence vs. US stocks-market on 2009/2010/2011 tops on red-curve, and on blue curve from 2010 (negative sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in medium-long term).
Now red is in incomplete cross-array on blue (preliminary positive sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in medium-short term).
Lows of 2010 is in hard divergence vs. previous 2010/2009-lows vs. US stocks-market, in-line vs. 2008-lows !!! (negative sign, not a signal but a sign, for stocks-market in medium-long term).

General comments
These indicators shows a decrease of market quality during 2010/2011 bull-legs, both from breadth and from options data.
The bullish break of the divergence descending-lines, could be the signal of bullish final-leg, before a major corrective wave.
The hard 2010-lows are worrying, according to these indicators.




Tuned on this foudamental breadth-technical indicator of the stocks-market, but follows short-medium term signs from prices, for a real-time and correct set-up.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.
K€SADDhAPHA'pe'KAMPA' SOUND SYSTEMS !!!
I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥