Macroeconomic Analysis

HI ALL. Some notes about US$ Forex Pairs [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Tuned on the Forex Global War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about US$ Forex Pairs [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Tuned on the Forex Global War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about US$ Forex Pairs [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.


Tuned on the Forex Global War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about US$ Forex Pairs [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.


Tuned on the Forex Global War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.


I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about US$ Forex Pairs [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Tuned on the Forex Global War.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Financial Stress Indicators [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

This personal indicator (chart I), named ALL new, is builded (contrarian to equity segment, about) from the following financial futures:
U.S.-Gov. (T-Bond 2y);
not-industrial precious metals (Gold);
precious industrial metals (Platinum Pt, Palladium Pd);
industrial metals (Copper Cu);
energy commodity (WTI Crude Oil)
equity volatility indicators (Cboe S&P500 future of Volatility Indicator at 1m).
Equity benchmarks as SP1500, Wilshire-5k or some World Stocks-Market Indexes (as MSCI or FTSE).
This indicator (and the following two) is not useful for trading but only for the study of equity trend in medium or long term frames and for financial stress measurement.
This indicator (and the following two) should be used with others to get correct trend information, as Libor Indicators, Bond Yield Indicators, Sentiment, Volatility & Breadth Indicators, Credit Indicators, Q-Ratio etc.
Key-area of double curves are as follows:
a) top-1998
b) tops-1990/1994/1997/2001/2002
c) lows-1992/1993/1994/1995/2002
d) lows-2000/2008
e) lows 2005/2007
f) 2004/2007 is a propulsive base, in divergence with equity assets tops (wonder bullish cup, with margin 2002/2008), with a double lows 2005/2007;
g) in 2007 start a bullish 5-legs trend on All-New, with rupture of bull trend of stocks-market;
h) during 2008 start a second 5-legs sky-rocket of All-New with the top of chart from 1990, in divergence with stocks-market lows;
i) now, after a first low in quarter/I-2010 All-New realize a second low in hard divegence with stocks-market 2010-tops.
The All-New indicator bull is in progress, as we can see the ascending-array of main lows from 2007 until now.
Two ascending 2010-lows on All-New are in divergence with stocks-market and for this, the bullish leg of II 2010 half is not validated according to All-New Ind.
Moreover the 2010-top of All-New is above b) Key-area !!!
Financial markets, especially stocks, are in a period of increased stress and deterioration of bullish trend during 2010, according to the All-New indicator.
Only below to 2010 low on All-New, there will be a new structural bullish of stocks.

This second personal indicator (chart II), named Metals-only, is builded (contrarian to equity segment, about) from the following financial futures:
precious metals (Gold);
precious industrial metals (Platinum, Palladium);
industrial metals (Copper).
Equity benchmarks as SP1500, Wilshire-5k or some World Stocks-Market Indexes (as MSCI or FTSE).
Key-elements of double curves of Metals-only are as follows:
wonder double lows 2000/2001 & 2007/2008 has been the propulsive base for the sky-rocket of Metals-only, in divergence with equity assets tops;
Metals-only indicator bull is in progress, as we can see the ascending-array of main lows from 2000 or 2008 (see two curves) but without all-time tops (from 1990) as the previous indicator.
Two ascending 2010-lows on Metals-only are in divergence with stocks-market and for this, the bullish leg of II 2010 half is not validated according to indicator.
Also according to this second indicator, financial markets, especially stocks, shows a phase of increased stress and deterioration of bullish trend during 2010.
Only below to 2010 indicator-low, there will be a new structural bullish of stocks.

This III personal indicator (chart III), named Global Volatility, is builded (contrarian to equity segment, about) from the following financial indicators:
Equity volatility at 1mo; GLD volatility; OIL volatility; FXE volatility.
At the 2010-middle, the Global-Volatility realized an important top (see apr.2009 level), with great stress inside financial markets.
Moreover there is an ascending-array of 2010 main-lows, in divergence with stocks-market tops (see previous indicators).
Also according to this indicator, financial markets, especially stocks, shows a phase of increased stress and deterioration of bullish trend during 2010.


The conclusion is very similar for the three indicators and, for long term structure, they are in agreement with the summary-indicators on yield-spreads.


Tuned on the Financial stress.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...714&mocktick=1

HI ALL. Some notes about Financial Stress Indicators [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.


Tuned on the Financial stress indicators underlying markets.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

http://zfacts.com/metaPage/lib/National-Debt-GDP-L.gif

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...432&mocktick=1

HI ALL. Some notes about Financial Stress Indicators [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

In these two charts there are two Stress Test Indicators for the banking-system in €-zone.
These young indicators shows great weakness of the EU banking system, with the lowest prices from indicators birth, well below the July-minimum, and in technical bearish-array (see personal lines).
Two indicators shows that in december maybe possible a technical recovery of prices (see descending rectangles).

Tuned on the Stress Test measures in financial markets.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Stocks Leading Indexes [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

These two charts are indexes dealing on semiconductors, a leading sector for tech.stocks.
These indexes, as S&P1500, shows ascending array for main 2010 tops; this ascending-array there is also in nov.-dec. (in positive divergence vs. S&P1500).
This pattern is a continuation-bull sign ???

Tuned on the leading indexes for stocks.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Stocks Leading Indexes [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

These two charts are indexes dealing on semiconductors, a leading sector for tech.stocks.
These indexes shows a not clear pattern in 2010 tops-array, contrarian in part to S&P1500.
But these indexes shows an ascending-array in nov.-dec. tops, in positive divergence vs. S&P1500.
This pattern is a continuation-bull sign ???
These 4 leading (tech.) indexes shows a positive structure vs. S&P1500.

Tuned on the leading indexes for stocks.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Stocks Leading Indexes [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

This chart is an index of S&P for the evaluation of leverage.
The price-evolution of this index is leading-type (see 2008/2009 lows vs. S&P1500).
The double-top of 2010 is very similar to S&P1500, with a little negative divergence (S&P1500 with ascending tops).
This is a not positive sign for financial sectors inside stocks ???

Tuned on the leading indexes for stocks.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Stocks Leading Indexes [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

These charts shows the hard divergence between Broker Dealers (red curve) sectors vs. S&P1500.
This is a not positive sign for financial sectors inside stocks.

Tuned on the leading indexes for stocks.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Stocks Leading Indexes [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

These charts shows the hard divergence between US Bank/Financial (red curve) sectors vs. S&P1500.
This is a not positive sign for financial sectors inside stocks.

Tuned on the leading indexes for stocks.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Stocks Leading Indexes [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

This charts shows the hard divergence between global financial (red curve) sectors vs. S&P1500.
This is a not positive sign for financial sectors inside stocks.

Tuned on the leading indexes for stocks.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Stocks Leading Indexes [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Comparing Baltic Dry Index vs. S&P1500 we can see an hard descending-array of main tops/lows of the first, in structural divergence with S&P1500.
This is a sign (not a signal but a sign) not positive for stocks-market in long-term.

Comparing DJ US Marine Transportation Index vs. S&P1500 we can see an interesting and contrasting pattern:
-) main lows have aspending-array in DJUSmt vs. descending in S&P1500 (positive sign for stocks-market);
-) main 2010-tops in descending-array vs. ascending in S&P1500, not positive for stocks-market in short-medium term.


Tuned on the leading indexes for stocks.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Stocks Leading Indexes [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

Two indicators for marine transportation stocks in debacle from 2008.
In the first chart we can see the spread (in red) DJUS Marit. Transp. Ind. vs. S&P1500, with green curve as S&P1500.
Spread have a very hard bearish-array vs. S&P1500, with a continuing loss of strength in the sector from 2009 to 2010. This is a bad sign for stocks-market in medium-long term.
Moreover it is possible a new strength-loss if the spread go below basal thin-line.
In the second spread there is the comparation of DJ Maritime Transport Index vs. Average Transport Index, and the bearish-array is is also evident.
This is a second bad sign for stocks-market in medium-long term.
Moreover it is possible a new strength-loss if the spread go below basal thin-line.

Maritime shipping stocks shows a continuing loss of strength vs. other sectors from 2008/2009.

Tuned on the leading indexes for stocks.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Real Estate [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

These charts dealing about Real Estate in U.S. market.

Chart 1 shows the dangerous array of lows (red markers) of the average-curve for new houses prices.
This sign is very bearish vs. stocks-market.
The bearish 2007/2010 is the most important since 1960.

Chart 2 shows the structural bearish-array of price average-curve vs. red-average (this sign is very bearish vs. stocks-market), but with RoC in ascending structure 2007/2010.

Chart 3 shows the price mediane-curve with sell signal on double-lows break. RoC in strong bearish. This signs are very bearish vs. stocks-market.

The charts of spread House-prices (average) vs. Au and DJ Index shows a potentially new phase of sell-off in house-prices.
First spread directed to 1980 lows of curve ???
Second spread directed to 2000 lows ???
These signs are very bearish vs. stocks-market.

Tuned on the Real Estate Armageddon indicators.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...432&mocktick=1

HI ALL. Some notes about Real Estate [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

The Case/Shiller S&P Price Index of US houses are the main benchmarks for Real Estate segment.
Both the 10-town that the complete indicator, shows a tiny recovery of price, with very dangerous bearish evolution in III/quart.2010.
A new bearish evolution of home-prices could be very dangerous for the stocks-market.
A new bull-leg of these indicators is very positive for the structural stability of markets.

One of the main global R.E. benchmark, FTSE EPRA-NAREIT, shows prices below both the main descending-line and the I/quart.2008 line.
Only above this area the sector go in a neutral phase.

Tuned on the Real Estate Armageddon indicators.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Stocks-Market [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

A megalithic structure in S&P500 benchmark: neverending diamond (marked with red-bold lines) ???
http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/4...zsalvi0080.jpg


Tuned on the megalithic structure in financial market but follows short-medium term trends.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥

HI ALL. Some notes about Volatility Indicators [bad English, sorry http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon9.gif ]

Financial Markets Observatory Lab.

An interesting long-term chart for Volatility Indicator of S&P500.
There are some regular patters (ascending and descending lines) important for long-term picture.
Two signs are interesting:
-) in dec.2010 prices have broken basal ascending line; there will be an important sell-off of volatility in I and II quarters of 2011 ???
-) 1987/1990 have very similar structure to 2008/20??11; in III quarter 2011 there will be an important bullish-turn of volatility ??? There is convergence between VIX analogy and some complete bond indicators (see also this and this one), partial bond indicators, complex indicators


http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/324/zzzsalvi0082.jpg


Tuned on the megalithic structure in financial market but follows short-medium term trends.
It is very important do not anticipate the main trend of the underlying financial instruments.

I.M.O. by $@!Ψ¥