Here's an idea I just came up with. I haven't done any testing but I thought I would post it to get some activity going.
Theory:
The forex is certainly a speculative market. Most of the trades are very short-term; many of the trades last less than two days. Suffice it to say that there are many day-traders on the forex. With this in mind, we can expect that many traders will be looking to close their positions at the end of their trading session (if they haven't done so already). Evidence is provided by the existance of the "quiet session," the period of time after the North American session closes (17:00 EST = 22:00 GMT) and before the Asian session opens (about 19:00 EST = 0:00 GMT). In fact, unless there is some news report due, the market will usually quiet right down as soon as London leaves the scene (12:00 EST = 17:00 GMT). So the idea is to steal a few pips while these day traders are closing their trades and taking their profits at the end of their sessions.
Setup:
1. Wait until just before the close of the London or North American sessions.
2. See what the directional bias (trend) is for the day, up or down. We will assume that the "smart money" has a winning position for the day (and that this is usually where most of the capital is) so they are now looking to close their positions at the end of the session.
3. Enter at the close of the last bar of the session in the opposite direction of the major directional bias for the day.
Areas of Research:
- Well first of all we need to see if this theory is sound. Does it work?
- Next we need to find what stop levels and take-profit levels work best.
I will be working on this research when I get a chance.
-mathematician
Theory:
The forex is certainly a speculative market. Most of the trades are very short-term; many of the trades last less than two days. Suffice it to say that there are many day-traders on the forex. With this in mind, we can expect that many traders will be looking to close their positions at the end of their trading session (if they haven't done so already). Evidence is provided by the existance of the "quiet session," the period of time after the North American session closes (17:00 EST = 22:00 GMT) and before the Asian session opens (about 19:00 EST = 0:00 GMT). In fact, unless there is some news report due, the market will usually quiet right down as soon as London leaves the scene (12:00 EST = 17:00 GMT). So the idea is to steal a few pips while these day traders are closing their trades and taking their profits at the end of their sessions.
Setup:
1. Wait until just before the close of the London or North American sessions.
2. See what the directional bias (trend) is for the day, up or down. We will assume that the "smart money" has a winning position for the day (and that this is usually where most of the capital is) so they are now looking to close their positions at the end of the session.
3. Enter at the close of the last bar of the session in the opposite direction of the major directional bias for the day.
Areas of Research:
- Well first of all we need to see if this theory is sound. Does it work?
- Next we need to find what stop levels and take-profit levels work best.
I will be working on this research when I get a chance.
-mathematician