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The Holy Grail - Found

  • #621
  • Feb 6, 2008 6:29pm Feb 6, 2008 6:29pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Since I brought it up, this is what I meant.

The EURGBP example. I won't go into details here.
I explain all this stuff/kind of price behavior in my journal often, and integrate it into the J16 chat sessions/videos etc, and I find it very interesting to watch and develop. It's also quite lucrative to trade

Please ignore the wavey MA lines, the chart was only meant to illustrate the TL and arrowed destination / target spots.

This is 1:1 as posted to journal before/after.

The first arrow at the lower TL and/or a FE 100 projection would be a plausible TP spot.

Are we doing the same thing?
THOSE BLUE AREAS.... S AND R ALL VERY NICE.....MAKES ME WARM AND FUZZY TO SEE THOSE AREAS LOL... TAKE JOHN W AND ADD A LITTLE SKUNNY FIBS FOR TARGETS AND VOILA..... THANKS TO JOHN W AND SKUNNY SINCERELY MY TRADING HAS IMPROVED A MILLION FOLD


  • #622
  • Feb 6, 2008 11:29pm Feb 6, 2008 11:29pm
Quoting FXNorm
Here's another setup:

eur/chf - 1.6035
Hi FXNorm

I've just descovered this thread and read with great interest.

I'm trying to learn from your setup...

The general daily trend looks for me a little different depending how far back I look at it.
Looking back 6 months I see sideways market to weak downtrend.
Looking back 12 months I see sideways to weak uptrend.
Only when looking back 3 months I see a clear downtrend.

Does this mean you look about 3 months back on the dailys to determin trend?

I've looked at the price 1.6035 and I'm a little hesitant about entering atrade there.. I explain why...

I guess you would place an order not at 1.6035 because you would sell right at support.. I guess the entry would be more like 1.6030 because you need to break through support first... (right?)

But then I see the next support area around 1.6020-1.6010...

Is this not a very "dangerous" call? you might not be able to make your TP of 20pips. You would require a 1.6010 for it. Price may find support before that level.

I hope all of you find my questions constructive to this thread.

Best
Colbru
  • #623
  • Edited 7:20am Feb 7, 2008 6:57am | Edited 7:20am
Quoting SeekingLight
This might seem a silly question, but...if you just sold the 209.45 break for 30 pips and are now selling the "60 pips away from that original sell" break, doesn't it occur to you that you could have just held the short down to 208 for 145 pips instead? Or - held it in case there's a real breakdown and the low (204.65) gets taken out?
Case in point and why I feel so odd about being satisfied with just 30-50 pips - I'd rather take 300-500+.

Still holding both the 211 and 209 shorts(and some others).

But I think the JohnW approach could help with interim mini-trades during the longer term stuff(If you would call this 1h chart longer term. Still have some real long term positions open, too).

Not trying to diss JohnW's approach - just trying to defend my own(i.e. to add a picture to what I was trying to say in reply to FXNorm).
I think one of the core requirements in trading is finding something that fits your personality, as that's not that easy to do..and this is how I like to approach things, with a "goal" in mind

Notice how price loves to come back up to broken areas to retest it (that 210.xx loss+retest level is a nice example)
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #624
  • Edited 9:37am Feb 7, 2008 9:20am | Edited 9:37am
Seeking,

JW is way ahead of you his total for jan was 1893 pips, Check out post# 593, you may have missed it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=593

I like your nice clear charts. Thanks
  • #625
  • Feb 7, 2008 10:57am Feb 7, 2008 10:57am
Quoting FXNorm
Seeking,

JW is way ahead of you his total for jan was 1893 pips, Check out post# 593, you may have missed it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=593

I like your nice clear charts. Thanks

Thanks

Nah, I think him and me we traded the same EJ moves

But I still have the cores open...you don't want to see the pip counts

It's not about pips though, is it...pips have no meaning..

The EURJPY trades are great because 150 stop gave him 890 return. This is exactly the 1:6(or any r/r above 1:2+) risk/reward I talked about being essential for getting those %s in
All other trades had less than 1:1 going by that post.

I mean, come on, even at (pretend figure) 100% account risk, if you have 100 pips stop and TP 5, you made 5% for risking all of your account. You know? I'd rather risk 1% to make 5% with 1:5 r/r instead (say 100 pips stop - stop is dependent on setup- let it go and start locking in pips after 2-300, just trail until finished, repeat).

In my eyes, it's always all about them r/r's
But that's just how I was "brought up" lol hehehe..it's also because it makes it alright to be wrong..there's nothing wrong with being wrong...you just have to be right longer than you are wrong and no harm done =)
Totally different approach however and I'm curious what it really is JW's doing.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #626
  • Edited Feb 8, 2008 9:27am Feb 7, 2008 11:45pm | Edited Feb 8, 2008 9:27am
wow, been following the thread carefully and silently, I like the idea. I keep FOLOWING the trades calls (demo) and so far..i like it, keep posting em, i m building confidence in it. ¸

Tkx to JohnW ,Norm and Tex.

Maxwells
  • #627
  • Feb 8, 2008 10:26am Feb 8, 2008 10:26am
EUR/CHF Daily trend and bias are SHORT. 1.5960 S/R - 4 spread -2 = Entry short at 1.5954, [email protected] [email protected]

What r your opinions on this one guys? John, Tex, Norm?

Maxwells

Feb/08 11:25 or 16:25 GMT
  • #628
  • Feb 8, 2008 12:22pm Feb 8, 2008 12:22pm
Hey Max, Welcome, and Thanks for the Kind Words.

Your call on eur/chf looks perfect, Thanks for posting it.

If it breaks during London or New York market time, all the better.

I've been posting trend and counter trend trades just to see how they work out. I'm shooting for a 90% win ratio (counter trend trades may greatly affect the win ratio) that will hopefully never have two losses in a row. If two losses in a row do occur, I'll tighten up the requirements a little. By never hitting two losses we can keep increasing
the trade size without increasing risk. Using JW's method we can leave the
1 and 2% boys far behind, with their 50 - 60% success rate and their 10 -12 losses in a row, potential. So, stay tuned, it will take many trades to build the confidence needed to succeed, but once that point is reached...You can just imagine.

Thnx - Norm
  • #629
  • Feb 8, 2008 2:56pm Feb 8, 2008 2:56pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Thanks

Nah, I think him and me we traded the same EJ moves

But I still have the cores open...you don't want to see the pip counts

It's not about pips though, is it...pips have no meaning..

The EURJPY trades are great because 150 stop gave him 890 return. This is exactly the 1:6(or any r/r above 1:2+) risk/reward I talked about being essential for getting those %s in
All other trades had less than 1:1 going by that post.
You are forgetting that traders with a high hit rate >70-80% can make money with negative reward to risk. Whatever you would "rather" do is obviously up to you, but having a positive r/r is not "essential" as you coined it in order to make great gains on your account. Moreover, r/r can never be predetermined, whoever thinks they can predetermine their reward/risk is the fool in the market.


Bob
  • #630
  • Edited 11:28pm Feb 8, 2008 3:28pm | Edited 11:28pm
Hi Colbru, and welcome

Regarding your question about recognizing the direction of the trend. As JohnW mentioned in a previous post (you may have missed it), to step back from the screen to see if you can spot the trend easier. To me, spotting the trend is secondary, I'm much more interested in whether i can spot a good trade setup that will most likely attract the stop hunters, if the setup looks good to me, it probably looks good to them also. As an example, look at the setup that Hoss gave in the chart He provided (post# 596), to me it looks like the perfect stop hunting layout with a nice amount of hours between "hits" to attract all of the players required to make the breakout successful.

Regarding your "dangerous" area just below breakout. If all the players are in place at the trigger point, the breakout will move thru those "dangerous"
area's quite easily the vast majority of the times, so don't try to convince yourself out of a perfectly good trade, as I have done also.

As you know by now, that trade went for about 75 pips and was totally stress free. When the setup LOOKS good, it probably will turn out good.

Thanks for your question - Norm
  • #631
  • Feb 9, 2008 1:57pm Feb 9, 2008 1:57pm
Hey guy's, just wanted to let you know of a thread I found in case you haven't see it. I find this guy very interesting and a damn good signal caller.
He's been banned for two weeks and his thread is in the recycle bin, but, take it from me this guy is goooood. Worth a look, wonder how He does it

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=58730&page=50
  • #632
  • Feb 10, 2008 3:50am Feb 10, 2008 3:50am
Quoting bobblong
having a positive r/r is not "essential" as you coined it in order to make great gains on your account.
Looking at the posted examples, leave out the two EJ ones that ran over 1:1 r/r, then calculate the ratios of all the remaining ones, tell me what you get, think about what I said, calculate some examples of risk % used and what they'd spit out.
Then compare that with just one of the left out trades that had 1:6 with the same amount of risk %.

If you don't "get" what I am driving at it's no fault of mine; it's all in the numbers. Math is math.

As for
Quote
whoever thinks they can predetermine their reward/risk is the fool in the market.
I can only say: exactly.
This is ironically the prime argument against using limits.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #633
  • Feb 10, 2008 5:18am Feb 10, 2008 5:18am
Quoting FXNorm
Hey guy's, just wanted to let you know of a thread I found in case you haven't see it. I find this guy very interesting and a damn good signal caller.
He's been banned for two weeks and his thread is in the recycle bin, but, take it from me this guy is goooood. Worth a look, wonder how He does it

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=58730&page=50
Thx for share link.. I'm going check it
  • #634
  • Feb 10, 2008 1:34pm Feb 10, 2008 1:34pm
Anybody lookin' at U/J?
  • #635
  • Edited 6:19pm Feb 10, 2008 4:08pm | Edited 6:19pm
Quoting blueruby
Anybody lookin' at U/J?

Hey Blue, Yep, I watched it break a trendline last week, shot up for 65 pips. I'm watchin the 105.75 real close, 107.90 looks interesting also.

I may place one of turn's (turn1into100) trade calls on here on monday eve on G/J, stay tuned.
  • #636
  • Edited Feb 11, 2008 10:25pm Feb 10, 2008 11:25pm | Edited Feb 11, 2008 10:25pm
Here's a counter trend trade gbp/usd 1.9510. I recommend watching this breakout, if you see weakness, I suggest you bail out. Counter trend trades can reverse quickly.

Update: This one broke out for 20 pips (including spread) then dropped like a rock.
  • #637
  • Feb 11, 2008 1:51am Feb 11, 2008 1:51am
Quoting blueruby
Anybody lookin' at U/J?
3 clear taps at 107.23, downtrend, down bias.

Another good one, per John's rules.
  • #638
  • Feb 11, 2008 2:25am Feb 11, 2008 2:25am
Quoting blueruby
3 clear taps at 107.23, downtrend, down bias.

Another good one, per John's rules.


I've still no idea how John's approach works, but if you sold 107.20 then I'm with you

Three taps sound just like a three bar low to me(normally a trend continuation setup, in this case it seems more of a mini-range break from up there to me; and had one other system's reason to think short..)
The suspicion I might already be doing a lot of what John is grows =)

IMHO you could have viewed it as that multiple bar lows; as a daily inside bar break down from s/r, as mini-range break; all three price action setups =)

Looks like we're nearing breakdown risk levels on a lot of carry pairs again..I just hope these weeks of staggering end at some point..it's just so booring
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #639
  • Feb 11, 2008 3:25am Feb 11, 2008 3:25am
Quoting SeekingLight


I've still no idea how John's approach works, but if you sold 107.20 then I'm with you

Three taps sound just like a three bar low to me(normally a trend continuation setup, in this case it seems more of a mini-range break from up there to me; and had one other system's reason to think short..)
The suspicion I might already be doing a lot of what John is grows =)

IMHO you could have viewed it as that multiple bar lows; as a daily inside bar break down from s/r, as mini-range break; all three price action setups =)

Looks like we're nearing breakdown risk levels on a lot of carry pairs again..I just hope these weeks of staggering end at some point..it's just so booring
John's approach would have been to put a sell stop at 107.20 and grab 20 pips while I slept.

I don't enter on stops, I want to watch and decide myself.

So instead, I placed an alert at 107.20, which woke me up at 2:30, and I watched the trade go away from me since I don't jump in or chase price.

Now it's 4:24, I've been up for 2 hours with cold feet and will probably go back to bed with no pips.

I think I like John's way better.
  • #640
  • Feb 11, 2008 3:48am Feb 11, 2008 3:48am
Quoting blueruby
John's approach would have been to put a sell stop at 107.20 and grab 20 pips while I slept.

I think I like John's way better.
Nothing wrong with order based trading if you know why you placed it and what the timeframes you want to manage it on / what you're shooting for.
Either you're exploiting a probability you know or not; being at the pc at the time or not is not going to influence whoever does the market moving to show more or less mercy...but I know the "problem" => it's a mind thing. I think one has to realize things will work or fail regardless of whether one sits at the PC at the time or not


Well I'm still in for +70 and moving, stops at b/e

Wouldn't mind a 106 touch, but so far .786 at 106.30 is holding. Will decide depending on 1h close where to move the stop or close
Trust price. Know yourself.
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