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The Holy Grail - Found

  • #421
  • Dec 23, 2007 5:23pm Dec 23, 2007 5:23pm
Quoting JohnW
(I see Bill Poulos claims to have sold 500 copies of his MA crossover system for $2000 each - how much $$ is that?) feeding off the dreams of ignorant desperate people. My posting of my method is my effort to stop this. Spread the message.
A couple years back, I paid ol' Bill $1500 for his "Quantum Swing Trader" course, and, as luck would have it, during the first month I made 10%, and didn't refund. Lost money for the next 5 months, gave it up. Then I found out about forex, then FF, then really knew I'd been had when I saw all the systems on here that were light years ahead of Bill.

He preys on beginners, IMO. He said he polled 50,000 traders to find out what they wanted in a forex course. That is called MARKETING. The survey merely tells him what buttons to push in the ad.
  • #422
  • Dec 23, 2007 6:24pm Dec 23, 2007 6:24pm
Hey Blue,

You said you were short G/J as the trendline was breaking, I think fri.
price dropped 400 pips right after you told me. Hope you had most of it.
Good call Btw.
  • #423
  • Dec 23, 2007 6:46pm Dec 23, 2007 6:46pm
Quoting howtalru
Well done John. I am a full time trader as well. I have spent over $15,000 in software, systems, seminars , mentorship programs the list goes on and on.

I started as a stock trader 5 years ago.

The best encouragement I can give for all those aspiring to be a profitable Forex trader is just don't give up.

You will have your moment. Sooner or later the light bulb will go off and everybody's light bulb is different. John does not use indicators. I do. You may end up using trend lines. It doesn't matter. But if you hang in there long enough something will trigger that makes sense to you and it will work for you. I have worked with allot of people with my system and to be quit frank even with my success working with them personally still only a small percent end up trading it successfully. You have to create something that makes sense to you.

I know it all seams very confusing and frustrating while you are trying to find your way to trading the Forex market successfully.
Take it from me just hang in there.
Well said and if may quote Calvin Coolidge:


"Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful people with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent. The slogan 'press on' has solved and always will solve the problems of the human race."

--
  • #424
  • Dec 23, 2007 10:29pm Dec 23, 2007 10:29pm
Not a single live call as of yet from anyone?
  • #425
  • Edited 12:38pm Dec 24, 2007 5:01am | Edited 12:38pm
Quoting JFX81
Not a single live call as of yet from anyone?
Here's a live call for ya, if G/U touches 1.9795 I'm filled short in my live account. Price is at 1.9810, 30 pip stop if triggered.

Update: short pos as been executed at 1.9795 prce now at 1.9765
30 pip profit so far. Stop moved to break even.

Update: Position closed out at 1.19764
  • #426
  • Dec 24, 2007 1:41pm Dec 24, 2007 1:41pm
nice call .. I took it a little earlier but not a lot. nice little breakout trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12 24.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #427
  • Edited 6:49pm Dec 24, 2007 2:44pm | Edited 6:49pm
Hi 4X, Thnx,

Once you get the hang of these trades they're rather easy. Once price broke below the round number, the drop was straight down 35 pips. Price pulled back, but didn't continue down with momentum (traded sidways) so the best thing was to close the pos. out.
The best way to play the trade was to enter below the round number, then take 20 pips profit, then wait for the pullback and continuation down below the next round number (1.9750) and enter just below it for the next leg down. But the price didn't cooperate on the 2nd leg. Good to see you profited from the trade. I try and watch 28 pairs in 3 time frames (1hr,4hr, daily) 4hr being the best setup time frame. Next is to add trendline breaks

2 plays a day would be great...keep your eyes open, Folks
for more setups. Ranging (sideways) currency's are no plays.
  • #428
  • Dec 24, 2007 3:44pm Dec 24, 2007 3:44pm
Re:"The 22% edge you need to unlock yourself. It is better that
JohnW doesn’t mention this."
You really think so huh? lol
Actually, I have it figured out pretty well. Breakout are quite simple.
JohnW sounds like a pretty honest guy, I think if there was something special He would have mentioned it for the good of all.[/quote]"

YesI really think so.
Breakouts are simple - agree.
If both of you have unlocked 22% edge - neither of you is disclosing it.
Is it better not to disclose that? Or better to admit that 22% edge doesn't exist?

I think that threads that go along the issue of - I know but won't tell you -
are bad threads. If one decides to go public with some method, he is supposed to make it fully transparent. Otherwise he is from not-as-intelligent
to not-so-good.
"I know but won't tell you" is good for kindergarten. The adults
can do better than that. Especially after deciding to go public with some
tutorials.

On this forum there is many good threads, one can learn a lot. Many answers have good and bad elements involved. I go thru many threads. See errors in them too. Many methods are unfinished. One method promotes 50% of RSI
as entry signal. With this method many good trades (100-150 pips worth) are skipped on because RSI is not showing 50% on entry. When you use Williams 50% you are more accurate - all missing trends are signalled. Williams entry is not promoted.
This "not disclosing the details of some method" can be stimulating, so I think it is better to not to get all details.

However the issue of "what is better or not" is a deep one. What seems better for one, is not always better for another. I wouldn't argue with you about 22% basically on this grounds - not grounds of: knowing or not
knowing that edge.
screen action instead of price action
  • #429
  • Dec 25, 2007 10:48am Dec 25, 2007 10:48am
You mentioned that williams is better than rsi? what setting cross? Is that 50 or 80 or 20? ALso, I would assume that you need to determine trend?
On RSI, it does miss "alot" and would chew you up unless u have the trends figured out.

I as of yet, have not "signed" on to the trendline break and trading with out indicators theory. I am a "big indicator-- PP, RSI , ema, stoch, mACD type.

I guess, I believe the more "trades" and indicators that qualify good strong trades in your arsenal the more $'s a person can make. This is therefore, just education. Unless of course, I figure out a way to auto trendline at 70% and the trades put in automatically.
  • #430
  • Dec 25, 2007 1:49pm Dec 25, 2007 1:49pm
Your are surely making a big mistake,RSI is the best Indicator out there.Most people use RSI as an over bought/sold indicator and if you follow the crowd then you will surely get burn.Some of the best trades occur when RSI are in the over bought or over sold areas.To capture these trades you have to reset the RSI and fogert about over bought over sold crap.Note for Forex only.I am new to this forum and don't know if I should giveaway my trading system just so.Also moving averages are lagging indicator but when used with A LINEAR REGRESSION AVERAGE you will begin to see the bigger picutre much earlier than any other indicator,again there is a special number that works best.I will advise try a 13 SMA on RSI and see if there is any difference.RSI works thick for thick with the market,so to smooth out the numerous zig zag
why not lenghten your settings ,say to 18 or any other larger number with the SMA,try experimenting you will be surprise with the results.
  • #431
  • Dec 25, 2007 2:15pm Dec 25, 2007 2:15pm
Hi Lessformore,

Please don't give away your indicator system in this thread. The author
has a dislike for that type of trading, and would prefer you didn't clutter up His thread, so that other's don't have to wade thru tons of useless indicator posts as you "adjust settings". Thanks
  • #432
  • Dec 26, 2007 7:20am Dec 26, 2007 7:20am
re:You mentioned that williams is better than rsi?
NoI haven't. Just indicated that other than RSI indicator is fulfilling the expected role possibly better. The williams settings (-50 cross, 13 period). The filtering of that cross is done by direction of 12 ema. If direction is contrarian, don't enter - it's a false break/entry...

I don't wan't to get involved in disputes on indicators in general and especially in this thread.
The Johnw's thread is about Johnw method.

JohnW have tried to explain his method of successful tackling the breakouts on 1h frame in direction of trend bias from daily frame. I have much doubt about the success of logic of this kind. Trend from daily, has weak or more likely NONE influence on direction of break thru priceline.

The explanation of the method given by JohnW in many attempts
is totally vague or speculative to unacceptable level.
However, the ideal of undecipherable trading system is as good as you can make.
It leaves many questions unanswered, and this can be creatively stimulating.
screen action instead of price action
  • #433
  • Edited 6:43pm Dec 26, 2007 12:01pm | Edited 6:43pm
G/J looks good for an upside breakout, entry will be 226.53 for 20 pips if it breaks, Price is at 226.45 at this moment.

Update - price filled at 226.53 at 1:10pm est. 30 pip stoploss. not much momentum

Wed 12-26 1pm est

Update: 2:30 pm Stop moved up to 226.38, trade is momentumless, time to bail out.
Stop hit 30 seconds later. 22 pip loss including spread.
Trade took way too much time to develop at the break point. Price fell back in on itself several times...not a good sign.

Well, final update: price broke out 30 min after I got stopped out... figures
  • #434
  • Dec 26, 2007 5:58pm Dec 26, 2007 5:58pm
Just in general, it's a really bad time to trade.

First off, go have a life, it's the holidays.

Secondly, there are some big boys out there that want to get flat before the end of the year, for tax reasons, books reasons, window dressing, etc.

And, most traders are on holiday, so liquidity is low.

Combine a few big traders making moves with low liquidity and you can get some wild results.

I'm not having a hard time staying away from charts, I can use the time to de-stress anyway.
  • #435
  • Dec 26, 2007 7:22pm Dec 26, 2007 7:22pm
Thanks buleruby, I knew that but still had orders pending anyway--appreciate that. Wonder if Johnw's dailies only go back 30 days or so.
  • #436
  • Dec 27, 2007 4:02am Dec 27, 2007 4:02am
Quoting Lessformore
I will advise try a 13 SMA on RSI and see if there is any difference.RSI works thick for thick with the market,so to smooth out the numerous zig zag
why not lenghten your settings ,say to 18 or any other larger number with the SMA,try experimenting you will be surprise with the results.
What you've described here is something we are very familiar with here at FF. we call it fozzy and It also has a Bollinger Band on the RSI
BTC Return This Year: na
  • #437
  • Edited 7:54pm Dec 28, 2007 12:40pm | Edited 7:54pm
Fri 12-28-07 1:30pm est time

Played several breakouts and trendline breaks thurs and fri. almost every one went for well over 20 pips. I can see this method approaching 80 - 90%
win ratio and with more practice, possibly 9 out of 10.

Today's play, gbp/usd, price is approaching 3 points of confluence (dbl bottom, round # and trendline break) at the
1.9900 level. I'll enter short at 1.9895 for a 20+ pip drop (counter trend trade).

Update: At fri market close, trade hasn't developed as of yet.


Johw's method is proving profitable - Thnx JW
  • #438
  • Dec 28, 2007 1:10pm Dec 28, 2007 1:10pm
Then why not post an account statement and blur the size of the trades if you don't want people aware of that part of things?

And why not post live calls?

If this thread is supposed to be educational it could serve people to see the method used in real time or as close to it as we can get.
  • #439
  • Dec 28, 2007 3:56pm Dec 28, 2007 3:56pm
OK,

re:
"I will advise try a 13 SMA on RSI and see if there is any difference.RSI works thick for thick with the market,so to smooth out the numerous zig zag
why not lenghten your settings ,say to 18 or any other larger number with the SMA,try experimenting you will be surprise with the results."

I expect you to explain why you prefer 13SMA than say 5SMA for your RSI 50 cross setting. This can help others even JohnW. I believe that JohnW will wake up to indicators sooner or later. There is no naked charts method that can work without indicators anyway. There is various indicators methods that are successful without so called "price action" approach.
Considering that many threads on forums give wrong, incomplete, irrelevant and poor info on subjects that are important in discussion of how to trade financial instruments - I don't expect to learn too much however
am interested in hearing your story. Years of analysis was unable to give definitive answer whether historical data can bias future outcomes in financial trading. Short, medium and long term trading objectives cannot be unified with reasonable consistency in any single method or let's say preferable method. However I show still interest in hearing your story of interpreting some differences in trading approaches.
So again, what is that your belief that 5SMA combination with RSI is worse than 13 or 18SMA combination in trying to foresee future outcome of some trade?
screen action instead of price action
  • #440
  • Dec 28, 2007 4:01pm Dec 28, 2007 4:01pm
.

Quoting system_s

There is no naked charts method that can work without indicators anyway.
LOL really? I think not. You should say none that have worked for YOU.


Considering that many threads on forums give wrong, incomplete, irrelevant and poor info on subjects that are important in discussion of how to trade financial instruments - I don't expect to learn too much however
am interested in hearing your story.

Including this post.
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