EURUSD & GOLD

The absolute closest macro correlation to spot gold (XAU/USD) is Silver (XAG/USD) for positive correlation, and the U.S. 10-Year Real Yield (inflation-adjusted Treasury yield) for inverse correlation.

i wrote so many indicators and ea but none came close to the success rate of bollinger bands

Agreed, BB is the best technical indicator.
Better than Ichimoku too.

What do you think of the code I wrote yesterday? It monitors the probabilities of the Fed changing interest rates. I believe that BB, too, ultimately relates to the Fed's potential to raise or lower interest rates.

From a fundamental point of view, all published economic indicators cause the change in the predictions regarding the federal interest rate.

So, an excellent correlation from a technical/fundamental point of view would be: Bb with a technical indicator regarding the evolution of the predictions of the interest rate.

XAUUSD Outlook: Bearish HTF Structure, 4100–4150 Is the Decision Zone

My current view on Gold is that the higher-timeframe structure is still bearish, but price may not fall in a straight line.
Gold closed near 4088 on 26 June 2026. After reviewing Monthly, Weekly, Daily and 4H, I am expecting a possible short-term bullish pullback first, mainly toward the 4100–4150 supply area.

On the Monthly timeframe, price has swept swing low liquidity and closed below that zone. I have a major Bullish OB / OB FVG around 3800, which is the next important higher-timeframe demand area for me.

On the Weekly timeframe, price rejected from supply and has already swept swing low liquidity with body closing below it. There is no strong fresh buying POI visible to me except the Weekly demand zone aligning with the Monthly OB FVG near 3800.

On the Daily timeframe, price has reacted after taking sell-side liquidity, but the Daily Bearish OB FVG above price is still active. This zone supports the bearish HTF bias.

On the 4H timeframe, the current bullish move looks more like a pullback into supply rather than a confirmed reversal. If price reaches the 4100–4150 zone and gives bearish displacement or MSS, I will start looking for shorts.

My plan is simple:
I want price to pull back into supply first.
Then I want rejection.
Then I want lower-timeframe confirmation before short entry.
Main levels I am watching:
Bias: Bearish
Pullback Zone: 4100–4150
Main Downside Draw: 3800
Confirmation Needed: Rejection + Bearish Displacement + MSS
Invalidation: Strong Daily/4H buying POI with bullish structure shift
For now, 4100–4150 is the key area. If sellers defend that zone and price fails to create a strong buying POI, I will expect delivery toward the 3800 Monthly/Weekly POI.

bollinger bands, look in your indicators under trend

scalping opportunity found taken

Warsh actually intends to reduce inflation but without raising the federal funds rate. He calls for the backup option:
1. more expensive mortgages and auto loans;
2. The Fed will no longer inject money into the market.

Traders recently realized this logical delay because Warsh did not mention anything in the FOMC speech about raising the rate.

no news movement

We were looking at the competing neighbors. They calmed down.

I made this traffic light on the CME. It's not showing green yet.

Do you see the correlation with gold?

On Friday, the weekly positioning of the big boys was LONG. https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/C...ders/index.htm

When gold futures rise, gold producers sell. This is also a cause of the daily correction. On the other hand, at the slightest sign of a decrease in inflation in the USA, gold will rally because the metal is traded in USD.