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Bitcoin trading calls

  • #1,741
  • Edited 8:09am Jun 27, 7:50am (31 hr ago) | Edited 8:09am
I am currently in a long position based on the following criteria: Price rejected $59,000 three times and cleanly broke above my blue downtrend line. Additionally, a strong bullish momentum candle breached the Daily Open (DO). Price is now trading above both the Previous Day Pivot (PDP) and today's Pivot (DP), signaling a potential reversal as buyers step back in.
If this structural shift holds true, the daily BTC chart could be at the beginning of a major macro W-formation, potentially sparking an impulsive move toward the neckline over the coming week.

  1. The Immediate Challenge: Next week's daily candles must reclaim the Previous Week Open (PWO) and secure a clean close above it.
  2. Invalidation Risk: If a candle closes below the DP (~$59,866), my buy order will be in serious danger, as price could easily slide back down to retest the lows.
  3. Keep in mind, it's still a high-risk counter-trend trade.

Targets: TP1: ~$60,850 | TP2: ~$61,200 | TP3: ~$61,800

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  • #1,742
  • Edited 9:00am Jun 27, 8:46am (30 hr ago) | Edited 9:00am
Quoting Toboso01
I am currently in a long position based on the following criteria...
Considering longs as well - short term though Toboso01. No positions yet.
Price is out of the wedge and the exit was uneventful - but it broke to the upside which is something (chart 1)
My EW idea on the daily chart supports some tradable upmove before downside to new lows below even 58k (chart 2)
In EW parlance price going above 63.2k says this idea is wrong and a sizeable upside is possible.
Chart 3 is just highlighting that the upmove off the lows (lower box) is not impulsive and is likely price taking a breather.
The longer box is the room to trade upwards before my EW idea is toast.
If price smells around the top of the box I will try a short looking for new lows
EDIT:
Added another chart. Daily chart of the 3rd chart for better perspective
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,743
  • Jun 27, 9:19am (30 hr ago) Jun 27, 9:19am (30 hr ago)
My EW musings (cont.)
If a move is truly a 3rd wave the wave 4 has a relationship with its length as a retracement:

Wave 4 retracement: Wave 4 usually retraces part of wave 3's gain, often between 23.6% and 38.2% of wave 3's length.
(copied)

I have added Fibs to the wave 3 move down.
These mentioned fibs are on the chart.
The red line is the wave 1 low.
Another EW rule is that wave 4 should not get into the territory of wave 1
If my idea is correct then that red line should not be touched in this upmove
And a move down should go down to new lows
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,744
  • Jun 27, 1:31pm (26 hr ago) Jun 27, 1:31pm (26 hr ago)
Quoting FxMohblacc
{image}{quote} thanks,Olu for your feedback. However, this my Algorithm called (ZEUS 2.0) where the methodology was derived from https://www.tradingview.com/x/agE18F1o
Hi FxMohblacc,
Thanks for you post. I like your chart. I tend to like systems that do not leave people indecisive. you chart has a lot of signals on it. Nice one.
Care to say more about it?
What is Zeus 2.0 saying now?
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,745
  • Jun 27, 2:33pm (25 hr ago) Jun 27, 2:33pm (25 hr ago)
Sorry for that i am not sharing this trade
after 2 months i trade in btc
and heres my trade, scalp
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mannnnan
  • #1,746
  • Jun 27, 4:20pm (23 hr ago) Jun 27, 4:20pm (23 hr ago)
Quoting mannnnnnan
Sorry for that i am not sharing this trade after 2 months i trade in btc and heres my trade, scalp {image}
No apologies necessary. Well done on the trade
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,747
  • Jun 27, 4:29pm (23 hr ago) Jun 27, 4:29pm (23 hr ago)
Quoting FxMohblacc
{quote} Depends on the pair you’re looking at … how about Asian to London session on Monday …. Reason because no liquidity on cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin during the weekend …it’s slow to PRINT. I’m price action during the weekends are for P2P Traders Liquidity in the market is required to get the precise direction of the market with ZEUS ️
Indeed FxMohblacc,
Liquidity tails off during the weekend. And it is likely that signals will not be strong.
I have been lucky that Bitcoin has recently adhered to simple EW principles so I use it till it goes wrong.
I emphasize the word simple. When I get to lower TFs or those wxy moves I bail out.
I am also a fan of pure price action - engulfing candles off support or at resistance, hammers off support.
And expanded triangles. Yes.
I also prefer price extremes - support or resistance.
That is me in a nutshell
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,748
  • Jun 27, 4:37pm (23 hr ago) Jun 27, 4:37pm (23 hr ago)
Just a chart update:
I have no positions.
I am looking to sell as close as possible to the red line in the top box, with a tight stop above it
Price closing above the red line will make me jettison my "short to new lows" plan
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,749
  • Jun 27, 5:24pm (22 hr ago) Jun 27, 5:24pm (22 hr ago)
Bitcoin is probing to the downside after throwing in a bearish reversal candle
I might have missed my short entry waiting for the perfect setup
I know it is the weekend...
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,750
  • Jun 27, 10:21pm (17 hr ago) Jun 27, 10:21pm (17 hr ago)
Quoting Toboso01
I am currently in a long position based on the following criteria: Price rejected $59,000 three times and cleanly broke above my blue downtrend line. Additionally, a strong bullish momentum candle breached the Daily Open (DO). Price is now trading above both the Previous Day Pivot (PDP) and today's Pivot (DP), signaling a potential reversal as buyers step back in. If this structural shift holds true, the daily BTC chart could be at the beginning of a major macro W-formation, potentially sparking an impulsive move toward the neckline over the coming...
As FxMohblacc said—and he is 100% right—weekends are heavily driven by P2P activity since financial institutions are closed, which usually leads to lower liquidity environment conditions.
Saturday's daily candle has officially closed. In general, Bears are still in control, but they were completely unable to close below Saturday's DP at $59,866, and it held firmly, signaling immediate weakness for the sellers. Furthermore, the bears failed to engulf Friday's Open around $59,600.

Taking into consideration the last three daily candles (Thursday, Friday, and Saturday), they are signaling a clear structural reversal pattern out of a major indecision zone, with Saturday printing a textbook Hammer (Pin Bar). On the 1H chart, BTC did exactly what I anticipated: after breaking above the Saturday Open with a strong bullish candle, it is currently retesting and consolidating within this zone.

P2P Daily Objectives
* Bulls: Must engulf and force Sunday's close above the Thursday range, reclaiming $61,200 to ignite the reversal. The ultimate mid-term goal is to engulf this entire weekly candle by closing next week above the PWO at ~$63,250.
* Bears: Must resume downward momentum, drag price back down, and reclaim the $58,000 handle by securing a clean close below it.

Key Levels for Sunday
* Daily Open (DO): $59,940 | Daily Pivot (DP): $60,186

The Sunday Game Plan (Strategy)
Long Criteria (Active Position)
Bulls need a solid 1H candle close above the Daily Pivot ($60,186) followed by a clean break of $60,500 (our immediate horizontal resistance).
-- Target 1: ~$60,900 (AOI 1 Zone) | Target 2: ~$61,700 (AOI 2 Zone)
-- Invalidation: A clean break and close below $59,700 will completely invalidate this long setup.

Short Criteria
Bears need to force a 1H candle close below the Daily Open ($59,940), followed by a clear break-and-retest sequence back into this zone displaying a sharp rejection pattern.
--Target 1: $59,000 | Target 2: $58,472 (Bears Target 2) | Target 3: $58,000 (YL)

Technical Insight
The MACD on the 1H timeframe is crossing above the 0-line, confirming that buyers are stepping in. Concurrently, the ADX indicates that the bears are rapidly losing trend momentum, paving the way for a transition over to the bulls.

*** This could just be an illusion due to low weekend liquidity. Once the big players join the game on Monday, they will decide the true direction

I currently have a long position open, and I will manage it according to this strategic bias. Happy trading!
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  • #1,751
  • Jun 28, 12:11am (15 hr ago) Jun 28, 12:11am (15 hr ago)
Quoting Toboso01
{quote} As FxMohblacc said—and he is 100% right—weekends are heavily driven by P2P activity since financial institutions are closed, which usually leads to lower liquidity environment conditions. Saturday's daily candle has officially closed. In general, Bears are still in control, but they were completely unable to close below Saturday's DP at $59,866, and it held firmly, signaling immediate weakness for the sellers. Furthermore, the bears failed to engulf Friday's Open around $59,600. Taking into consideration the last three daily candles (Thursday,...
wow this nice
  • #1,752
  • Jun 28, 8:54am (6 hr ago) Jun 28, 8:54am (6 hr ago)
Quoting FxMohblacc
{quote} thanks for agreeing with me. Solid write-up. The structural reversal pattern across the last three dailies definitely looks promising, and that Hammer print is clean. However, given how hard the bears have been pushing lately, I’m leaning cautious. If this is just a low-liquidity weekend drift, a fake-out above the DP ($60,186) to grab liquidity before heading back to the $58k handle wouldn't surprise me. Definitely waiting for a clear break-and-retest sequence before jumping in
Completely agree on leaning cautious here, FxMohblacc. The threat of a low-liquidity weekend drift turning into a fake-out is very real, and that potential trap above the DP ($60,186) to hunt liquidity before a dump is exactly what concerns me. Because of that, entering anything new right now is a bad idea—my only options are to either close or strictly manage what's open. Lesson learned: no liquidity, no game. One thing is certain—the longer the consolidation, the larger the expansion. I expect a significant impulse by Monday's open or the following days. The big question is: will I get trapped, or will the expansion save my position?
  • #1,753
  • Edited 10:15am Jun 28, 9:55am (5 hr ago) | Edited 10:15am
Quoting Toboso01
{quote} As FxMohblacc said—and he is 100% right—weekends are heavily driven by P2P activity since financial institutions are closed, which usually leads to lower liquidity environment conditions. Saturday's daily candle has officially closed. In general, Bears are still in control, but they were completely unable to close below Saturday's DP at $59,866, and it held firmly, signaling immediate weakness for the sellers. Furthermore, the bears failed to engulf Friday's Open around $59,600. Taking into consideration the last three daily candles (Thursday,...
I have closed my long position to protect my capital. Off to church now to enjoy the rest of the day. Have a great Sunday, everyone!

One final update before I leave:
Price is currently sandwiched between the DP and the DO. Whichever level breaks first in alignment with my Long/Short parameters will ultimately resolve this indecision phase.
On my chart, I have mapped out the potential paths for both sides:
** a) For the Bulls: They need a clean breakout above the zone between the blue and green downtrend lines, plus a solid close above the DP, to completely clear the path upward.
** b) For the Bears: They need to force a close below the DO and Yesterday's Pivot (YP). This could trigger a classic break-and-retest sequence or, if there is enough institutional volume, a direct drop back toward $59,000.

Bottom Line: As long as the price stays supported above the PDO and YP (Previous Day Open / Friday's Open + Yesterday's Pivot), the bulls are still technically holding the game.

### Sunday Goals (Daily chart):

  1. Bulls: Must engulf the Thursday daily candle (marked with a star on the chart).
  2. Bears: Must push down to completely fill Thursday's lower wick."

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  • #1,754
  • Last Post: Jun 28, 11:18am (4 hr ago) Jun 28, 11:18am (4 hr ago)
Hi all
Still gazing at this price action over the weekend.
I do accept that weekend price action is not all that but price is still showing weakness imo
Price has locked itself in a triangle/wedge which usually breaks in the prior direction before it.
A triangles is also a rest area for price after an eventful upmove or downmove in a wave 4 and the break will usually be a thrust
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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