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  • #1,681
  • Jun 25, 11:07am (21 hr ago) Jun 25, 11:07am (21 hr ago)
Taken out all the superfluous lines as they are not relevant for now.
The action is between 62k and 59.1k then 58k.
As Toboso01 would say bears are in control
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,682
  • Jun 25, 11:09am (21 hr ago) Jun 25, 11:09am (21 hr ago)
Quoting Toboso01
The Wednesday candle has closed, and the bears are still in control. Looking at the Daily chart (right), even with their current strength, they were unable to close below $60,700 (around the June 5 close), which previously left a large wick. This price seems to be a strong support level, as no daily candle has been able to close below it yet. The Wednesday candle managed to test the lows but ultimately closed back above $60,700. Daily Objectives: * Bulls: The goal for the bulls is to engulf yesterday’s candle (wednesday) and close above $62,700...
Today's Post-Analysis & Review
* Long Setup (Invalidated): Needed a clean break and structural hold above the DP. It never confirmed due to the lack of a retest, printing only a weak rejection.
* Short Setup (Missed Entry): My main bias. I wanted a 1H candle close below 60,700, followed by a retest and rejection. The 8:30 AM news changed the sequence by spiking straight above the DP first; the aggressive wick rejection right at that key level was the ultimate signal. I missed the execution, but the read was spot on.
* Results: Both targets smashed perfectly (TP1: 60,000 / TP2: 59,148).
Key Takeaway: Rejections need context. A wick means nothing unless it happens at a critical S/R level or is fueled by high-impact macro data. As the saying goes: "When in doubt, it's better to be out." Glad to see my structural analysis and target mapping were 100% correct.
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  • #1,683
  • Jun 25, 11:10am (21 hr ago) Jun 25, 11:10am (21 hr ago)
Let's not forget ETH. Bitcoin's blood brother. The situation is the same. Bears in control. The real action is now at the 1500 level
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,684
  • Jun 25, 12:06pm (20 hr ago) Jun 25, 12:06pm (20 hr ago)
Quoting Olu
Just another idea Like yesterday we had a thrust down in a wave 3 of 5 -ish move followed by a 3 wave retracement and now another thrust down I have added the fibs to the chart to show that price has retraced 38.2% of the move down in what I am identifying as a wave 3 of the 'final' wave 5 If I am right here then price should sell off again to a lower low. Please note: I will not be testing/trading this as I want to protect my 0.5% award. But once the day has 'changed' if the idea still remains I will go for it. Talk about trade constraints right?...
Price is turning down again. We might have some meandering (forming a triangle retracement) but it is very likely price is going to new lows.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,685
  • Edited 8:41pm Jun 25, 6:51pm (13 hr ago) | Edited 8:41pm
Good evening, friends.
I entered with a short position @ 60,111.7
Current SL 60,800 > 60,070 > 59,430
Current TP 59,150 > 58,800
  • #1,686
  • Jun 25, 7:47pm (12 hr ago) Jun 25, 7:47pm (12 hr ago)
Quoting nospace022
Good evening, friends. I entered with a short position @ 60,111.7 Current SL 60,800 > 60,070 Current TP 59,150
Hi nospace022, could you share some insight into why you entered this trade? It would be great to learn from your process and help the community strengthen our analysis and sharpen our market reading skills.
  • #1,687
  • Edited 10:28pm Jun 25, 8:33pm (12 hr ago) | Edited 10:28pm
Quoting Toboso01
{quote} Hi nospace022, could you share some insight into why you entered this trade? It would be great to learn from your process and help the community strengthen our analysis and sharpen our market reading skills.
Hi, this is honestly the question I was most afraid of when writing my first post; explaining what I'm doing and thinking is the most stressful for me.

For daily trading, I mainly use "my psychology," the liquidation chart, the order book, and news. I don't really have much experience; I'm self-taught, as with most things.

From my observations, I've noticed that after such declines, the price tends to rest on the liquidation chart and return to the middle, at which point it decides whether it's a good position to open. On the 1-hour chart, I noticed that the price had returned to 61,100 and was having trouble breaking through. So, I decided to enter a short position in line with the current trend and news (Iran). I think the downtrend itself will continue to 57,200 unless bulls and positive news emerge.

Initially, I set a stop loss to give the position some breathing room and let me decide for myself whether I wanted to continue. Looking at the order book, something tells me that the price is being pushed down overnight. I don't know why I think the price won't start rising until Friday or the weekend.

Currently, the price is at 59,550, and I'm considering closing or moving the SP.

I'd also like to introduce myself. I started trading in February. I felt a spark then, and suddenly started taking an interest in it – it was like a vision that popped into my head. The first few months were difficult for me. I tried it on a demo account, and shortly after, I switched to my own capital to experience the learning curve. The beginnings were mixed. Of course, I lost a lot of money. However, something sparked within me, and in March, by doing everything systematically and in line with my beliefs, I managed to earn in 20 days what I would have earned in six months at my job. Unfortunately, I couldn't organize it in my head and lost half of it. I didn't trade for a month after the loss, and only in the last month did I start building up my strength with dollar-based positions. However, it's difficult to recapture what I think I felt in March. Despite everything, it brings me a lot of joy; it forces me to constantly think, analyze, and develop, which I love. I have conversations with AI, and using AI, I created scalping bots whose stories I sometimes analyze and determine the direction (I use reverse psychology in this case). I act somewhat on what I feel, or what my head tells me. For a long time, I've felt lonely and unable to share my "visions" with anyone. Interestingly, AI suggested this forum to me, and then I found this topic, and I felt comfortable with it. I use Google Translate to communicate with you, and my messages may seem strange to you. Once again, I'd like to officially welcome you and build a future with you I hope this post wasn't embarrassing.
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  • #1,688
  • Edited 9:14pm Jun 25, 9:01pm (11 hr ago) | Edited 9:14pm
Quoting nospace022
Good evening, friends. I entered with a short position @ 60,111.7 Current SL 60,800 > 60,070 > 59,430 Current TP 59,150 > 58,800
Hit stop loss 59,432.3

Edit:
My vision looks like ten moments in ten ways. It will take a breather and return to around 59,999. Availability here, regarding access at the target location, is the event I'm thinking the price could reach as high as 60,560, which might be a bit too dramatic?
I maintain that the price could drop to around 10 CEST and then catch its breath over the weekend – unless bad political decisions occur.
At 10 CEST, I'd consider long position over the weekend. However, I don't want to be too limited here, as it could drop below 58,800 and could continue falling, hitting a single point on the end device. (?)
A long position (against the trend, as a form of taking a breather) always seems risky to me, but I always regret it when it happens and I'm not there.
Does this make sense to anyone?
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  • #1,689
  • Jun 25, 9:19pm (11 hr ago) Jun 25, 9:19pm (11 hr ago)
Quoting nospace022
{quote} Hi, this is honestly the question I was most afraid of when writing my first post; explaining what I'm doing and thinking is the most stressful for me. For daily trading, I mainly use "my psychology," the liquidation chart, the order book, and news. I don't really have much experience; I'm self-taught, as with most things. From my observations, I've noticed that after such declines, the price tends to rest on the liquidation chart and return to the middle, at which point it decides whether it's a good position to open. On the 1-hour chart,...
Hi nospace022, it's a pleasure to have you here! Welcome to the thread. I really hope this forum becomes a great learning space where we can share ideas and help each other analyze the market. To me, that’s the only way to grow—especially because it forces us to make truly informed trading decisions.
I've been in other forums where people just post raw trades with absolutely no logic behind them, mostly just showing off. That is completely useless to me. I know we all have different trading styles, which can sometimes make practicing a specific model a bit challenging, but in the end, seeing different perspectives helps all of us shape our own analysis and chart reading.

Trade criteria analysis doesn't have to be long—just a brief explanation behind the logic works perfectly. I prefer to keep mine precise because I log my entry and post-analysis links into a separate trading journal so I can review them over time and learn from my mistakes.

As we’ve mentioned here before, making mistakes is a vital part of the learning curve. That’s why when someone posts a post-analysis, I hope we can all comment in a supportive way to discuss what could have been done differently. It helps us identify recurring patterns, repeat what works, and fix what doesn't.

I’m also currently short on BTC, and I’ll be sharing my breakdown and entry reasons shortly.
Nice meeting you, and happy pips!
  • #1,690
  • Jun 25, 9:26pm (11 hr ago) Jun 25, 9:26pm (11 hr ago)
Friday Market Outlook & Trading Plan
The Thursday candle officially closed, so the game for this Friday is on. As the final trading day of the week, the bears are fully dominating the game. Expect institutional block volume rotations, options pinning, and artificial liquidity traps leading into the London close / NY morning.
Thursday's bearish candle managed to close below $60,700, a major support level that held the market previously where historical candles were unable to close below it, only piercing it with wicks. However, it was unable to close below $59,000, which is acting as a hard floor that has been rejected three times with massive spikes (the June 5th and 6th candles, and yesterday's Wednesday daily candle).

Daily Objectives
* Bulls: The goal is to reclaim ~$60,700 and ultimately engulf Thursday's candle, preferably taking out the wick high above ~$61,900.
* Bears: To defend today’s open, fill yesterday's low (YL), and preferably close the daily candle below ~$58,000.

Key Levels
* Daily Open (DO): $59,711 | Daily Pivot (DP): $59,866

Trading Strategy
Long Criteria (Counter-Trend / Invalidation)
A close above ~$60,158 will invalidate my current sell order. For a valid long setup, bulls need to close above the DP ($59,866) or ~$60,158, retest either the DP or DO, and print a clean rejection via a bullish candle with at least a 30% bottom wick.
-- Target 1: $60,700 | Target 2: $61,000 | Target 3: $61,800

Short Criteria (Current Active Position)
I am currently in a short position. The execution criteria triggered after the rejection of ~$60,158 (which I marked as a ChoCh point) followed by a 1H candle closing below today’s Daily Open.
***Immediate Challenge: Bears must close a 1H candle below $59,000, which acts as our immediate support floor. Clearing this level opens the runway to our macro targets.
-- Target 1 (YL): $58,000 | Target 2: $56,500 | Target 3: $53,500
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  • #1,691
  • Jun 25, 9:58pm (10 hr ago) Jun 25, 9:58pm (10 hr ago)
Quoting nospace022
{quote} Hit stop loss 59,432.3 Edit: My vision looks like ten moments in ten ways. It will take a breather and return to around 59,999. Availability here, regarding access at the target location, is the event I'm thinking the price could reach as high as 60,560, which might be a bit too dramatic? I maintain that the price could drop to around 10 CEST and then catch its breath over the weekend – unless bad political decisions occur. At 10 CEST, I'd consider long position over the weekend. However, I don't want to be too limited here, as it could...
I'm currently monitoring the market, and my mistake was moving my stop loss to 59,432.3. I could have waited a bit longer. The price suddenly dropped below 58,800. I'm curious if this is a stop for an upside rebound. If I were still in the position, I would have closed it at 58,800 and wondered if the price would rebound higher after such a decline. However, this is a moment when all my plans are overlapping, and it's also difficult to predict whether the price will now try to decline to, perhaps, 57,200 in a further waterfall?
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  • #1,692
  • Jun 25, 10:41pm (9 hr ago) Jun 25, 10:41pm (9 hr ago)
Quoting Toboso01
Friday Market Outlook & Trading Plan The Thursday candle officially closed, so the game for this Friday is on. As the final trading day of the week, the bears are fully dominating the game. Expect institutional block volume rotations, options pinning, and artificial liquidity traps leading into the London close / NY morning. Thursday's bearish candle managed to close below $60,700, a major support level that held the market previously where historical candles were unable to close below it, only piercing it with wicks. However, it was unable to close...
Closing at break-even as price is retracing back to my entry point. Will look for another entry.
  • #1,693
  • Jun 25, 11:42pm (8 hr ago) Jun 25, 11:42pm (8 hr ago)
Quoting nospace022
{quote} I'm currently monitoring the market, and my mistake was moving my stop loss to 59,432.3. I could have waited a bit longer. The price suddenly dropped below 58,800. I'm curious if this is a stop for an upside rebound. If I were still in the position, I would have closed it at 58,800 and wondered if the price would rebound higher after such a decline. However, this is a moment when all my plans are overlapping, and it's also difficult to predict whether the price will now try to decline to, perhaps, 57,200 in a further waterfall? {image}
I've been watching the chart for the past two hours and regret not being on the bottom of this bounce.
At the 60,000 level, I was considering entering a short position again, but something tells me we're currently in a bear trap.
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  • #1,694
  • Jun 26, 12:10am (8 hr ago) Jun 26, 12:10am (8 hr ago)
If BTC Stays below 58000, we can expect 3 downside targets
1st: 52,250
2nd: 48,250
3rd: 45,000
Current scenario doesn't look good for BTCUSD.
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Independent Trader & Mentor
  • #1,695
  • Edited 1:23am Jun 26, 12:29am (8 hr ago) | Edited 1:23am
Quoting nospace022
{quote} I've been watching the chart for the past two hours and regret not being on the bottom of this bounce. At the 60,000 level, I was considering entering a short position again, but something tells me we're currently in a bear trap. {image} {image}
Long @ 59,811.1
SP: BE
Target 60, 579

//
There's a very high probability that the stop loss will be hit soon. Nothing bad will happen, and it'll be nice to switch to observer mode. That's all for now.

//Re entry long @ 59,780.0
SP 59,550 > BE
Target 60,200
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  • #1,696
  • Jun 26, 1:41am (6 hr ago) Jun 26, 1:41am (6 hr ago)
Quoting nospace022
{quote} Long @ 59,811.1 SP: BE Target 60, 579 // There's a very high probability that the stop loss will be hit soon. Nothing bad will happen, and it'll be nice to switch to observer mode. That's all for now. //Re entry long @ 59,780.0 SP 59,550 > BE Target 60,200 {image} {image}
I still think this is a bear trap or a weekend upside bounce (resting from the declines) that I mentioned.
My position is secured; everything is looking good at the moment. I'm considering a target of 60,500 – but is it good?
I feel tired and excited at the same time, which suggests I should go to sleep and close my positions, but there's a lot going on right now.
It hit 60,200 – but I didn't take a break. I'll leave this trade open until I observe it or it hits the stop loss.

Still open:
Long @ 59,780.0
SP: BE > 60,000
Target 60,500 but i dont know

// I decided to change the stop loss to the 60,000 level
//
This is the feeling when you fight like a gladiator
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  • #1,697
  • Jun 26, 2:10am (6 hr ago) Jun 26, 2:10am (6 hr ago)
Hi all. Welcome to Friday. Like the song says 'I can't wait for the weekend to begin'
I don't have a lot of screen time today - usually this is a good thing for me - no half baked multiple decisions
But will look at the charts in between
Thanks for the contribution to the thread Nospace022, Liquidsky123 and Toboso01.
It is always nice to read the mind permutations of other traders.
Nothing is jumping out at me right now on the charts but my bias is to the downside still.
Bias is one thing though and price action is another
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,698
  • Jun 26, 2:32am (6 hr ago) Jun 26, 2:32am (6 hr ago)
Quoting nospace022
{quote} I still think this is a bear trap or a weekend upside bounce (resting from the declines) that I mentioned. My position is secured; everything is looking good at the moment. I'm considering a target of 60,500 – but is it good? I feel tired and excited at the same time, which suggests I should go to sleep and close my positions, but there's a lot going on right now. It hit 60,200 – but I didn't take a break. I'll leave this trade open until I observe it or it hits the stop loss. Still open: Long @ 59,780.0 SP: BE > 60,000 Target 60,500 but...
Profit realized 59,780.0 > 60,559.3

I wanted to keep the position growing. However, I felt a mix of emotions, and after a brief struggle, I decided to close it. After a moment of reflection, I think it was a very wise decision.
For me, it's over now. However, this session was special. Yesterday, I didn't have the energy to look at the charts, but today I felt like I was floating with it. That's the feeling.

Good morning Olu - thank you for your words of encouragement and for your warm welcome.
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  • #1,699
  • Edited 2:44am Jun 26, 2:33am (6 hr ago) | Edited 2:44am
GM Fellas
mmm there is a lot of stop to hunt i think, what are you tought?
edit: chart update still bearish for me imo
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I won't give up.
  • #1,700
  • Edited 2:56am Jun 26, 2:45am (5 hr ago) | Edited 2:56am
Quoting MaGiix
GM Fellas mmm there is a lot of stop to hunt i think, what are you tought? edit: chart update, but yeah with the hit of the downside stops, not enough reaction to initiate a move change {image}
Honestly, I think we're back to ~61,500, but something tells me we're about to start falling again? I can't think of anything more at this point.


// MaGiix, your screenshot opened my eyes now I have an idea - drop to 59,300?
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