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Bitcoin trading calls

  • #1,081
  • May 25, 2026 11:18am May 25, 2026 11:18am
Quoting Zappa
Hello, Want to start a thread for sharing bitcoin CALLS and analysis, as well thoughts on how to improve performance or things you could have done better. Not interested in starting another bitcoin thread on just where you think support/resistance is. Not very helpful in my opinion. Please include your actual target and stop loss when making a call.
Before i started posting on this thread, i read the OP (quoted above) to ensure i was staying within the spirit of the initial intentions of the thread starter.

This is why i gave my current (non) position.

Then we came to the point of 'how to improve performance'.... which seems to be the current contention here. I'm guessing far too many people do not understand the performance boosting ability of the exact same trading system by way of position sizing. It is literally night and day and seemingly rarely discussed.

It truly matters folks.

As to BTC analysis, you've got me there. I simply do not do it. It is not part of my trading lexicon. By analysis I'm thinking of what is termed 'the fundamentals'. I do not do this anywhere in anything i trade. It just has no value to me and i decline comment every time.
QuantTrading
  • #1,082
  • May 25, 2026 11:27am May 25, 2026 11:27am
Quoting QuanTrSystem
{quote} Before i started posting on this thread, i read the OP (quoted above) to ensure i was staying within the spirit of the initial intentions of the thread starter. This is why i gave my current (non) position. Then we came to the point of 'how to improve performance'.... which seems to be the current contention here. I'm guessing far too many people do not understand the performance boosting ability of the exact same trading system by way of position sizing. It is literally night and day and seemingly rarely discussed. It truly matters folks....
I post the stop loss, but don't post how much I'm risking. That to me is not important info to discuss. Why? Because I have a considerable amount TO lose if I risk too much. Whereas someone else taking the same trade but trading with $100 in their account could take on more risk. Its up to the individual to determine how much they want to risk, and not my place to guide them on that.

I took big risks to get where I am. Blew out many small accounts before it worked out. Who am I to tell people not to take big risk when they are trading with a small account and trying to make it big. That's exactly what I used to do!
  • #1,083
  • May 25, 2026 12:38pm May 25, 2026 12:38pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I post the stop loss, but don't post how much I'm risking. That to me is not important info to discuss. Why?
Because it's part of performance. In fact if you're not calculating this, you're not doing large parts of the work required.

Topics to ponder here are Kelly Criterion (for trading), Secure F etc...

I reiterate, posting relative size is all that is required, I strongly suggest people do not post their account size to a public forum nor is it required to gauge any metric.
QuantTrading
  • #1,084
  • May 25, 2026 1:05pm May 25, 2026 1:05pm
Quoting QuanTrSystem
{quote} Because it's part of performance. In fact if you're not calculating this, you're not doing large parts of the work required. Topics to ponder here are Kelly Criterion (for trading), Secure F etc... I reiterate, posting relative size is all that is required, I strongly suggest people do not post their account size to a public forum nor is it required to gauge any metric.
Im sure Kelly criterion is great if you know what the probability of winning is, but I don't know that and somehow its worked out for me without that.

I dont use a system. I use my intuition formed through decades of experience, a few tools, and disciplined risk control (in my own way!). Some trades i risk more, some trades I risk less, depends on how far away my stop is and how strong of conviction I have. For example if I have a super tight stop placement, I wont risk as much because it is more likely to get hit. If I use a wide stop on next trade I'll risk more because its less likely to be hit and there's a good chance I'll get out early if it starts to look like Im wrong. Not always, sometimes take a full position stop loss on the chin, but its not so common.

With a tight stop loss I don't usually get the chance to leave early. Also like to move stops to b/e when I feel its safe to do so.

Im not on here to impress anyone so they can have me trade money for them (or pay me to "teach" them as so many on here are doing). Happy to just trade my own account and do it my own way.

Will post trades with entries, stops, and targets as well as thoughts and analysis. You can take it or leave it, doesn't matter to me
  • #1,085
  • May 25, 2026 1:09pm May 25, 2026 1:09pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Im sure Kelly criterion is great if you know what the probability of winning is, but I don't know that and somehow its worked out for me without that.
I think you're going to continue to completely miss the point. I'm going to be charitable and believe it's not on purpose. :-)

Good Luck.
QuantTrading
  • #1,086
  • May 25, 2026 1:19pm May 25, 2026 1:19pm
Quoting QuanTrSystem
{quote} I think you're going to continue to completely miss the point. I'm going to be charitable and believe it's not on purpose. :-) Good Luck.
No, I am not getting your point. If its about tracking performance I'm a simple man. At end of year did my account increase and what was the worst drawdown? Simple as that. None of that other stuff means much to me and I've done alright without it.
  • #1,087
  • May 25, 2026 2:10pm May 25, 2026 2:10pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Nothing wrong with sitting on hands and waiting for a trade set-up you are comfortable with. We all see things differently, that's what makes a market. But just because you do not see any opportunity does not mean they aren't there, and doesn't mean the rest of us are just trading blindly. You have no idea apparently how I determine a trade to take. I've been doing this over 20 years and I can promise you there is a method to the madness. Of course I have losing trades like anyone else. Pretty hard to be a perfect trader. But I've also had...
Well said Zappa. We are all different with out own individual 'madnesses' - if there is a word like that
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,088
  • May 25, 2026 4:42pm May 25, 2026 4:42pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Well said Zappa. We are all different with out own individual 'madnesses' - if there is a word like that
Can you make heads or tails at what that guy was getting at? Reading back it does appear i misunderstood him (I do tend to do that when I'm already annoyed with someone). Thought he wanted me to post position size (like a screen shot or something). Assumed he was trying to get me to prove something like a big position size or whatever. Ended up posting my account balance

Maybe the guy had good intentions, but didn't like his first couple posts towards me. Didn't help i was already pissed off at myself for trades last week.

Still not sure why my position size relative to account is so important to him. We're not here trying out for the fucking trading Olympics. Just sharing thoughts, analysis, and trades.
  • #1,089
  • May 25, 2026 4:57pm May 25, 2026 4:57pm
Well for the record since we've talked so much about it today. This is generally how much i risk.

Wide stop (few thousand points or more) 3%
Medium stop (about 2 thousand pts) 1.5% to 2% (depending how strong i feel about the set-up)
Small stop (anything under 1000 pts) 0.5 to 1.0%.
Might even only risk 0.25% if stop is SUPER close, but I dont usually place stops that close.

Right now I'm testing out my scalping skills. Its been a while since I've focused on scalping. Want to see how I do this week and maybe next. Risking 0.25% per trade

Not that any of this should matter to anyone reading this. If i had a small account there's no way I'd be trading this risk averse.
  • #1,090
  • May 25, 2026 5:25pm May 25, 2026 5:25pm
If i had a small account this is what i would do.

Start with something extremely small. An amount you could lose 7 days a week and not even notice.

Lets say $25 (could be even less, doesn't matter)

Wait for a good set-up, risk it all on that trade and close when it doubles. You're going to need a broker with high leverage

Now you're at $50. This time give yourself 2 chances to double it. Maybe you could double that in one trade, but you don't risk it all on one trade.

Double that again to $100 and close.

At $100 now give 3 chances.
At $200, 4 chances
At $400, 5 chances
And so one....
Every time you double it you add another chance. And it not like there aren't going to be some b/e trades, small gains, small losses. Every trade is different. But you always risk same amount that you started with at each level. Though I should also add that if you use very tight stops you should give yourself more chances from the start.

The thing is you have to make good trades. There's no getting around that fact.

Then there's also going for a BIG trade, which is how I actually made a big leap. Wasn't like I just deposited money into account and next trade was a big winner. I clawed around winning here, losing there. Was grinding out some gains. Doubled account a few times over time and then went balls deep in a BiG trade that actually worked out. Risked it all on that trade, and continued to risk it all as I added size to position as it went my way. Were many sleepless night during that ride. Nails were completely bitten off. Every slight move against me had me sweating, and every move for me made me want to kiss the person standing next to me.

Wasn't the first time I had done that, but every other time I ended up blowing it. Made it to 100k and never risked % like that ever again.

Took me YEARS and many blown accounts to finally get the perfect combo of some hard earned doubles on smaller trades and then a BiG grand slam to finish it off.

And to be sure, if I had saved every dollar up to that point and never deposited shit into the account, I could easily have just taken the money saved and deposited 100k into the account, but then I wouldn't be prepared to actually trade it. You have to earn it the hard way. Go deposit a bunch of money in an account and you are probably going to lose it the hard way
  • #1,091
  • May 25, 2026 5:26pm May 25, 2026 5:26pm
Quoting Zappa
Well for the record since we've talked so much about it today. This is generally how much i risk. Wide stop (few thousand points or more) 3% Medium stop (about 2 thousand pts) 1.5% to 2% (depending how strong i feel about the set-up) Small stop (anything under 1000 pts) 0.5 to 1.0%. Might even only risk 0.25% if stop is SUPER close, but I dont usually place stops that close. Right now I'm testing out my scalping skills. Its been a while since I've focused on scalping. Want to see how I do this week and maybe next. Risking 0.25% per trade Not that...
I use 1000 points generally and 1% risk. most of my trades start out like I will be holding for life but most times they don't last as long as I purposed.
I like your idea the smaller the stop the smaller the risk i.e increased chances of being stopped out
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,092
  • May 25, 2026 5:33pm May 25, 2026 5:33pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I use 1000 points generally and 1% risk. most of my trades start out like I will be holding for life but most times they don't last as long as I purposed. I like your idea the smaller the stop the smaller the risk i.e increased chances of being stopped out
Yeah I mean if you've got a 300 pt stop loss, you don't want to risk same amount as you would with 2,000 pt stop loss. Much more likely to get hit.
  • #1,093
  • May 25, 2026 7:18pm May 25, 2026 7:18pm
Hi all
The markets are starting to lose the weekend and yesterday's you know who's manufactured rally.
It is crazy that someone of this position can just post untruths and the counterparty come out and say it is untrue.
In the meantime the markets have gone wild.
Anyways, if the markets continue risk off then the downside is back on in bitcoin.
This idea is rubbish if 78.2k area is taken out
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,094
  • May 25, 2026 7:24pm May 25, 2026 7:24pm
Just closed the long around b/e (small loss)

Should have taken profits at 1.5.
  • #1,095
  • May 25, 2026 7:25pm May 25, 2026 7:25pm
Quoting Olu
Hi all The markets are starting to lose the weekend and yesterday's you know who's manufactured rally. It is crazy that someone of this position can just post untruths and the counterparty come out and say it is untrue. In the meantime the markets have gone wild. Anyways, if the markets continue risk off then the downside is back on in bitcoin. This idea is rubbish if 78.2k area is taken out {image}
Volatility is good though. Otherwise its boring as shit
  • #1,096
  • May 25, 2026 7:31pm May 25, 2026 7:31pm
Just went short on HYPE coin
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  • #1,097
  • May 25, 2026 7:31pm May 25, 2026 7:31pm
Target at 2
Stop at 0
  • #1,098
  • May 25, 2026 7:31pm May 25, 2026 7:31pm
Quoting Zappa
Just closed the long around b/e (small loss) Should have taken profits at 1.5.
The big guy effect. It is criminal imho
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,099
  • May 25, 2026 7:32pm May 25, 2026 7:32pm
A lot of action and volume on that coin lately. Its the coin of the broker I use Hyperliquid.
  • #1,100
  • May 25, 2026 7:35pm May 25, 2026 7:35pm
Forget 2.0
I think 3.0 has a good shot at getting hit
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