EURUSD & GOLD

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The data that will be released today will appreciate the USD.

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Very important

$DXY US dollar here now

The USD direction was given by Michigan 1Year inflation exceptation.

Same logic: what could move the federal funds rate.

And inflation is an unresolved problem of the FED.

EMA200 is the leader.

In the picture: EMA20/50/100/200.

When the leader strengthens his team, he can act.

Here, the leader gathered the team and gave them direction. As we talked about before FOMC, USD will continue to be strong.

FOMC minutes confirm the direction, with some risks (example: private credit).
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monet...es20260429.htm

just a minor logic and template change and lot size control to strictly use 0.75% margin and the fastest account growth on xauusd

how will xauusd react the these news this week

This calendar highlights major macroeconomic triggers for the U.S. dollar, which shares an inverse relationship with Gold (XAU/USD).
1. Mid-Week Volatility: CB Consumer Confidence (Orange Impact)

1. Expected Forecast: 91.9
2. XAU/USD Reaction:
   1. Bullish (Gold Rises): If consumer confidence misses expectations (lower than 91.9), it signals economic cooling. This weakens the USD and drives XAU/USD higher.
   2. Bearish (Gold Falls): An upside beat (higher than 91.9) indicates economic resilience, fueling expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates, boosting the USD, and weighing down Gold.

2. Speeches: Fed Officials (Yellow Impact)

1. Key Events: Logan, Cook, Jefferson, and Goolsbee speaking across May 27–28.
2. XAU/USD Reaction:
   1. Bullish: Hawkish rhetoric is largely priced into the market. If these members lean slightly dovish—expressing concerns over growth or highlighting cooling inflation—bond yields will drop, pushing Gold up.
   2. Bearish: Solidly hawkish commentary regarding lingering inflation pressures will support the USD, providing immediate selling pressure on XAU/USD.

3. The Main Trigger: US Core PCE Price Index (Red High-Impact)

1. Expected Forecast: 0.3% m/m (May 28)
2. XAU/USD Reaction:
   1. Bullish Breakout: If Core PCE comes in below 0.3% (e.g., 0.1% or 0.2%), it will signal that inflation is cooling efficiently. This boosts rate-cut expectations, crushes the USD, and will likely trigger a massive rally in XAU/USD.
   2. Bearish Drop: If Core PCE prints a hot 0.4% or higher, it severely delays the Fed's easing cycle. This will prompt a sharp rally in the USD and a steep technical sell-off for Gold.

Summary Trading Matrix for XAU/USD
Economic OutcomeUS Dollar (USD)Gold (XAU/USD) DirectionStrategy / Notes
Hot PCE / High ConfidenceStrengthens Bearish Look for short entries on technical resistance levels.
Soft PCE / Low ConfidenceWeakens Bullish High-probability buy setups on pullbacks to support.
Mixed Data / Hawkish FedChoppy / Strong Range-bound / Bearish Scalping intraday ranges; avoid long-term swing positions.
If you want to plan your entry zones, let me know:

1. What are your key support and resistance levels on the chart right now?
2. What timeframe (e.g., 15m, 1H, 4H) do you typically trade?
3. Are you looking for scalping opportunities or a swing trade layout for the week?

hint

this is like walking on the road with side rails

I think the 10Y price will support the green railing tomorrow.

USD is preparing for a new rally.

The boss, EMA200, has gathered his subordinates and will immediately tell them: "Go North!"

you know this technique

and you also know about the sweet spot touch on daily after Nov 2023 on gold

These economic indicators from the US tell me that the Core PCE Price Index M&M increased in April.. So Core PCE >0.3.
I could be wrong.

Inflation indicators were slightly weaker (M&M) and in line with expectations (Y&Y), higher unemployment, lower GDP than expected. Conclusion: the data does not cause an increase in interest rates, as the market believed, but rather an expectation. Thus, the USD was weaker after the news release.
In many cases, the price increases in the hours before the release of economic news on the calendar based on forecasts. During the release of news, the price can react strongly in both directions and is risky to trade without solid training.
After the release, we trade in the direction given by the news.

Oil prices will rise again.
Oklahoma delivery hub inventories fell, US oil imports rose, refinery capacity increased.
Global inventories fell to near operating levels.