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Bitcoin trading calls

  • #881
  • May 15, 2026 10:23am May 15, 2026 10:23am
Showing signs of life. I'm taking profits and heading out for weekend.
  • #882
  • May 15, 2026 1:55pm May 15, 2026 1:55pm
Signing off too. Everyone have a great weekend.
The SP500 is sporting a bearish divergence
Bitcoin was not clear on the Clarity Act (see what I did there?)
That 78k shelf is not too far with bitcoin we have the whole weekend for the market to move.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #883
  • May 15, 2026 4:53pm May 15, 2026 4:53pm
New phone came in!
Yall know I can't stay away too long. Obsessed and addicted to the markets

Bear move looks done with or just about.

Took out those TLs below and fizzled out. Didn't really have a strong start, made a hard drop (though not THAT hard) and decided that was enough.

I'm thinking up from here. How far i dont know, but at least back to 82k. Its the weekend, let's see how it goes.
  • #884
  • May 15, 2026 5:08pm May 15, 2026 5:08pm
I'll say this as a counter argument to last post. If a big move south were to happen, the weekend might be the time to do it with its low liquidity.

If bulls can get this back above 79500 (not far away at all), I think the chances of a big gap down will be greatly diminished. Until then there is still a possibility they try and run this down in search for stops
  • #885
  • May 15, 2026 5:41pm May 15, 2026 5:41pm
Quoting Zappa
New phone came in! Yall know I can't stay away too long. Obsessed and addicted to the markets
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #886
  • May 15, 2026 5:51pm May 15, 2026 5:51pm
Quoting Zappa
I'll say this as a counter argument to last post. If a big move south were to happen, the weekend might be the time to do it with its low liquidity. If bulls can get this back above 79500 (not far away at all), I think the chances of a big gap down will be greatly diminished. Until then there is still a possibility they try and run this down in search for stops
Check this out. A bull flag on the chart which is bullish and price is at a point where it could go straight up.
Go figure. I have been bearish because of a bear flag on the bigger timeframe and now this bull flag looks good as well.
Price could head up to the upper boundary of the flag and beyond.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #887
  • May 15, 2026 6:24pm May 15, 2026 6:24pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Check this out. A bull flag on the chart which is bullish and price is at a point where it could go straight up. Go figure. I have been bearish because of a bear flag on the bigger timeframe and now this bull flag looks good as well. Price could head up to the upper boundary of the flag and beyond. {image}
I'm actually kind of leaning towards my counter argument at the moment until proven otherwise. Could also just be a boring weekend
  • #888
  • May 15, 2026 6:32pm May 15, 2026 6:32pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I'm actually kind of leaning towards my counter argument at the moment until proven otherwise. Could also just be a boring weekend
Geopolitics over the weekend could yield some serious downside.
Every weekend for the last few weekends, traders have waited with bated breath on what Trump will do because his action (real action or jawboning) messes things up. Comments are that he has no appetite to start bombing and I hope he doesn't start.
If he doesn't then the stock market could have some recovery from the massive selloff today and bitcoin could rally.
All these ifs and maybes...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #889
  • May 15, 2026 6:41pm May 15, 2026 6:41pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Geopolitics over the weekend could yield some serious downside. Every weekend for the last few weekends, traders have waited with bated breath on what Trump will do because his action (real action or jawboning) messes things up. Comments are that he has no appetite to start bombing and I hope he doesn't start. If he doesn't then the stock market could have some recovery from the massive selloff today and bitcoin could rally. All these ifs and maybes...
Man, i cant even try to comprehend all the variables of what's going on outside of the charts. At end of day we're trading prices, not news. Well I'm not anyways.

You could read something that just came out, think price should move a certain way, then it initially does....and then it doesn't! And then it reverses again!

Who the hell can make any sense of that. Trying to see all the hints and clues the charts give us is all I can handle
  • #890
  • Edited 1:48am May 16, 2026 1:28am | Edited 1:48am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Man, i cant even try to comprehend all the variables of what's going on outside of the charts. At end of day we're trading prices, not news. Well I'm not anyways. You could read something that just came out, think price should move a certain way, then it initially does....and then it doesn't! And then it reverses again! Who the hell can make any sense of that. Trying to see all the hints and clues the charts give us is all I can handle
will look for buy if we have false break ... otherwise sell only ..
and off course price action will show the path ..
BTW nice thread brother..
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Don't Predict Just React..
  • #891
  • May 16, 2026 4:31am May 16, 2026 4:31am
Quoting Nbr42
{quote} will look for buy if we have false break ... otherwise sell only .. and off course price action will show the path .. BTW nice thread brother.. {image}
Thank you brother!
  • #892
  • May 16, 2026 4:37am May 16, 2026 4:37am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I'm actually kind of leaning towards my counter argument at the moment until proven otherwise. Could also just be a boring weekend
Wow, nice move for a Friday night. Looks like stop run down was the right call.

Let's see how far they can push it. With all the fresh longs from the Clarity Act news earlier this week this could get ugly (or beautiful if short ). This is just another example of why we need to trade the charts and not the news. A lot of traders were super bullish after Clarity Act cleared Senate banking committee. If it seems too easy it's probably a trap.
  • #893
  • May 16, 2026 4:56am May 16, 2026 4:56am
I always like to watch the first few hours after CME close on Friday to see what direction it goes. A market with potential for big gap won't move in the opposite direction after CME close by much at all, that's the clue.

I went with the counter argument I made because it started dropping (just a little bit at the time) and a stop could be placed very close (less than 500 points) at 79500. That to me would have invalidated the big gap down idea. Was worth the risk in my opinion. Of course there were other signs pointing down that I've talked about already too in previous posts.

Now the question is how far will this go over the weekend, and will the gap be filled after CME open.

Given that this move got off to a quick start only 9 hours after CME close, it might not be filled right away. This has potential for big gap and then panic selloff once CME opens and stops are triggered.
  • #894
  • May 16, 2026 5:50am May 16, 2026 5:50am
Wao. What a difference a few hours make in bitcoin.
I logged off for the weekend and bam! market thrusted down
The support box has been hit.
Price could go either way now.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #895
  • May 16, 2026 8:24am May 16, 2026 8:24am
Quoting Olu
Wao. What a difference a few hours make in bitcoin. I logged off for the weekend and bam! market thrusted down The support box has been hit. Price could go either way now. {image}
Looks down, down, down to me.

When the manipulators start a move on Friday night they usually mean business.

I think the goal for them is push price as far as possible on low liquidity, trigger a stop loss cascade, then use that liquidity to load up on longs. CME traders ain't getting out of this unscathed. When their market opens up, their stops will get triggered. The lower we go, the more stops will get hit
  • #896
  • May 16, 2026 9:50am May 16, 2026 9:50am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Looks down, down, down to me. When the manipulators start a move on Friday night they usually mean business. I think the goal for them is push price as far as possible on low liquidity, trigger a stop loss cascade, then use that liquidity to load up on longs. CME traders ain't getting out of this unscathed. When their market opens up, their stops will get triggered. The lower we go, the more stops will get hit
I hear you Zappa.
As you know I am bearish bitcoin till we hit around 50k however this instrument is an animal.
Can move 1k in any direction before you swallow a spoon of cornflakes (I exaggerate)
Right now, price is teasing at the support area. I am looking for an entry short
Funny thing Zappa, Last week or week before the last, I was looking for a good short entry and was still looking through a near 2k upmove
I amuse myself sometimes. Work also gets in the way sometimes
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #897
  • May 16, 2026 12:41pm May 16, 2026 12:41pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I hear you Zappa. As you know I am bearish bitcoin till we hit around 50k however this instrument is an animal. Can move 1k in any direction before you swallow a spoon of cornflakes (I exaggerate) Right now, price is teasing at the support area. I am looking for an entry short Funny thing Zappa, Last week or week before the last, I was looking for a good short entry and was still looking through a near 2k upmove I amuse myself sometimes. Work also gets in the way sometimes {image}
Yeah, thats gotta be tough not being able to watch the markets during work. Makes it MUCH harder!

Up move off 77600 doesn't look like much too me. I expect selling to pick up again soon if I'm right about this.
  • #898
  • May 16, 2026 12:47pm May 16, 2026 12:47pm
ETH looks very likely to make a new low below 1750
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  • #899
  • May 16, 2026 12:58pm May 16, 2026 12:58pm
Quoting Zappa
ETH looks very likely to make a new low below 1750 {image}
Hmm. ETH
Never traded this one before but my platform allows it. What is the volatility like compared to bitcoin?
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #900
  • May 16, 2026 2:03pm May 16, 2026 2:03pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hmm. ETH Never traded this one before but my platform allows it. What is the volatility like compared to bitcoin?
I don't trade it either, but I do look at it for more clues as to what BTC will do. It follows BTC, and it aint going to drop hard if BTC isn't leading the way
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