As I mentioned in a previous post, we interpret the data published daily to find out if it causes the FED to raise or lower the federal funds rate. That is, if inflation is rising or falling.
The FED's objectives: maintaining price stability and full employment.
For example, today:
-NFP strong compared to estimates;
-Average hourly earnings (MoM and YoY) and Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectation, below expectations; less money in the economy, so lower inflation is expected. Therefore, the FED would not have to raise the federal funds rate taking into account this data.
Conclusion: USD weak after the publication of news about the US economy
Exception: news with geopolitical impact that can suddenly change the direction of the USD.
The FED's objectives: maintaining price stability and full employment.
For example, today:
-NFP strong compared to estimates;
-Average hourly earnings (MoM and YoY) and Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectation, below expectations; less money in the economy, so lower inflation is expected. Therefore, the FED would not have to raise the federal funds rate taking into account this data.
Conclusion: USD weak after the publication of news about the US economy
Exception: news with geopolitical impact that can suddenly change the direction of the USD.
2