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Bitcoin trading calls

  • #841
  • May 13, 2026 6:48am May 13, 2026 6:48am
Going to take a break from posting calls. Its pretty tedious to keep updating them. Wish I could just start a trade explorer, but not available with broker I use (Hyperliquid)

Watch out for those TL's below.

On log scale we're already at the first one (again). Thinking it'll break
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  • #842
  • May 13, 2026 8:44am May 13, 2026 8:44am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} This move up off 79800 actually giving me hope the down move might actually go all the way to 61500. Was looking a little too soft on the way down before this up move. This might reset it. Looking to see something impulsive on way down. Just leaving target open for now. Still thinking down, just don't know how far
Looks like this was a correct take about the reset, albeit a little premature at that moment. Selling looking much more powerful now.

This target all the way down to around 60500 still a possibility at the moment. Lets' see how hard this can fall.
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  • #843
  • May 13, 2026 8:47am May 13, 2026 8:47am
I notice there's another new bitcoin thread where the "PRO" is trading demo and happy to post targets but no stops

Sorry, couldn't bite my tongue
  • #844
  • May 13, 2026 10:12am May 13, 2026 10:12am
Quoting Zappa
I notice there's another new bitcoin thread where the "PRO" is trading demo and happy to post targets but no stops Sorry, couldn't bite my tongue
Noticed it too Zappa.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #845
  • May 13, 2026 10:16am May 13, 2026 10:16am
Today was a good day for bears 79.5k has been hit despite initial signs that the moon was attracting price
PPI was $ friendly and indicated that interest rates should in fact be going up and not coming down as the new Fed chairman and the man T wants.
If we can settle here (or slice through) then we continue to look downwards.
EDIT:
Changed the chart to reflect the minor support under 79.5k
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #846
  • May 13, 2026 10:46am May 13, 2026 10:46am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Noticed it too Zappa.

"But but but the Clarity Act."

Its always the arrogant ones who are frauds
  • #847
  • May 13, 2026 11:02am May 13, 2026 11:02am
Serious bearishness here.
79.5k support gone.
Minor support level 79275 gone as well.
There seems to be an price acceleration downwards despite stock market recovering
Can we reach the box today? Less than 1k points away now
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #848
  • Edited 1:34pm May 13, 2026 11:08am | Edited 1:34pm
Added to my short risking profits already made (less some).
I would not like to see 8000 anymore.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #849
  • May 13, 2026 11:11am May 13, 2026 11:11am
Good call on the short, thanks for explaining!
... the True North, Strong and Free
  • #850
  • May 13, 2026 1:35pm May 13, 2026 1:35pm
Quoting Olu
Added to my short risking profits already made (less some). I would not like to see 8000 anymore.
Closed out everything as price took the minor support line back.
Looking to get short again
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #851
  • May 13, 2026 1:47pm May 13, 2026 1:47pm
Just a bounce of that TL, this time in regular scale.

Don't see that holding
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  • #852
  • May 13, 2026 1:59pm May 13, 2026 1:59pm
BTC continues showing what I would call an “demanding bullish continuation” structure.
The bullish institutional regime is still active and has not been fully displaced, but transition pressure has clearly increased underneath the surface. In other words, Bitcoin still maintains bullish conviction, although the structure is no longer as clean or comfortable as before.
Non-Commercial positioning remains net long at +1,441 contracts, while Commercials continue net short at -1,539 contracts. What becomes interesting is the recent evolution in positioning:

  1. NC longs increased strongly this week (+1,870),
  2. but shorts also increased (+2,821),
  3. causing net positioning to weaken from +2,392 to +1,441.

That combination usually reflects growing friction inside the continuation structure rather than clean expansion.
At the same time, Open Interest increased sharply to 23,402 contracts (+1,710), showing that participation is still entering the market despite the growing transition pressure.
For me, this is the key message:
Bitcoin still maintains institutional bullish support, but the structure is becoming more mature, more crowded and increasingly sensitive to instability or redistribution if transition pressure keeps building in the coming weeks.
This is exactly why positioning and participation matter so much.
Price alone may still look bullish, but underneath the surface the institutional structure is already showing signs of friction that many retail traders never see.

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  • #853
  • May 13, 2026 2:35pm May 13, 2026 2:35pm
ETH looks like it might do something like this. It won't do that without BTC also dropping hard.

And Solana 4hr in 2nd chart. Looks like dead cat bounce if I've ever seen one
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  • #854
  • May 13, 2026 2:48pm May 13, 2026 2:48pm
Today's selloff was good, but I'd like to see it pick up intensity even further. Expecting this to be quick and scary. It will remove any weak handed longs and set the stage for next bull run in my opinion. Wants to take the easy longs liquidity out first.

I'm thinking we should probably be at 63k before end of month. Should NOT go back to 81300 if I'm right about this.
  • #855
  • May 13, 2026 4:23pm May 13, 2026 4:23pm
Quoting Zappa
Just a bounce of that TL, this time in regular scale. Don't see that holding {image}
Got shaken out by that bounce Zappa. Too much screen time and second guessing things
Note to self: Leave things alone
Price could still get to the middle of the support box by the end of this week
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #856
  • May 13, 2026 11:52pm May 13, 2026 11:52pm
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  • #857
  • May 14, 2026 3:31am May 14, 2026 3:31am
Quoting chelsea9
{image}
Thanks Chelsea9 for adding your thoughts.
So for you, the bearish idea is still intact up to 80.2k. Am I right?
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #858
  • May 14, 2026 3:48am May 14, 2026 3:48am
This is my current working chart for Bitcoin.
The white box is yesterday's full range.
I am bearish bitcoin but trying not to be married to any position.
Price had a breakdown from the 79.5k area and the 79.2k area.
It looked like it was speedily going for the box.
It didn't reach the box before it reversed. Almost like a liquidity grab
Then a retest of the breakdown area (or an attempt to continue the move down) but is now moving upwards.
The real sign of trouble for the bearish camp (me) is price reaching the downtrend line (80.8k).
Alarm bells will be ringing like cathedral bells
Price taking out yesterday's high is really bad for bears
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #859
  • May 14, 2026 3:50am May 14, 2026 3:50am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Thanks Chelsea9 for adding your thoughts. So for you, the bearish idea is still intact up to 80.2k. Am I right?
yeah, it is currently going for the inducement
  • #860
  • May 14, 2026 6:49am May 14, 2026 6:49am
Once again price took off to the upside but in now back at 79.2k.
The bearish story is still relevant.
EDIT: The white box is yesterday's price action
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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