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Bitcoin trading calls

  • #361
  • Apr 29, 2026 3:59am Apr 29, 2026 3:59am
Bitcoin price put in a nice recovery action and at some point I started to think that bitcoin has diverged from my favourite indicator - the SP500
Watching price action a bit more of the 2 instruments it looks like the relationship is still there.
Bitcoin just has a wider range to manoeuvre and play in before succumbing to the relationship/correlation.
Hence our wide stops when we trade bitcoin.

Today is Fed day and price is tentative and apprehensive.
I am sure the Feds will want to talk things up but the market is the market and will react to its own parts of the speech despite all intentions.
The fact still remains that fundamentally we are in a war and the biggest contributor to inflation is still an issue.

WTI crude oil is up near 4% and the market has not yet responded to that move.
Will it?
Won't it?
No one but the market knows.
But my response is to position for the response without losing my account.
NB: I am short the SP500 with a tightish stop.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #362
  • Apr 29, 2026 4:58am Apr 29, 2026 4:58am
Bitcoin putting in a stonking performance so far.
Despite crude oil up $3, dollar Index up, gold down big, silver down as well and the stock market ranging to down.
Correlations are being broken. Something has to give.
I am watching the pink (or is it purple?) trend line.
Is this an aggressive retest?
78k is a possible test short area for me.
But it would depend on price action there for me. A convincing close above that price is a reason (with other instruments in line) to get long some
Well done on your trade Zappa. Well done indeed
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #363
  • Apr 29, 2026 6:13am Apr 29, 2026 6:13am
Nipped out for a while. Got back and this is the current state of play.
Price attacked the trend line but did not touch it before reversing
I am still torn.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #364
  • Apr 29, 2026 6:25am Apr 29, 2026 6:25am
Quoting Olu
Bitcoin putting in a stonking performance so far. Despite crude oil up $3, dollar Index up, gold down big, silver down as well and the stock market ranging to down. Correlations are being broken. Something has to give. I am watching the pink (or is it purple?) trend line. Is this an aggressive retest? 78k is a possible test short area for me. But it would depend on price action there for me. A convincing close above that price is a reason (with other instruments in line) to get long some Well done on your trade Zappa. Well done indeed {image}...
Thank you Olu, so far so good.

I try not to put a whole lot of weight into correlations with other markets. When I used to trade forex I would always be comparing the different pairs. It usually screwed me up more than anything. For me, its better to concentrate on one market and while I might glance over to see what oil, or gold, stocks, are doing, its more out of curiosity..

Anyways, thats just me.
  • #365
  • Apr 29, 2026 6:34am Apr 29, 2026 6:34am
Gotta say, making the change last night to r/r limit did take a lot of atress away. Im conatantly tinkering with targets, second guessing myself, and trying to control greed.
With the limit on r/r, the only thing I need to decide is 1:1, 1:2, or 1:3 risk reward. Makes it very simple and with smaller targets much more likely to be hit. Feeling good about this so far.

Will be annoyed if the market finally makes some epic wave that I could of surfed, but im mentally prepared for that.

I just have to remember that there are ALWAYS opportunities. The market is constantly moving. Even in a strong trending move with small pullbacks there are opportunities to enter and profit.
  • #366
  • Apr 29, 2026 6:43am Apr 29, 2026 6:43am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Thank you Olu, so far so good. I try not to put a whole lot of weight into correlations with other markets. When I used to trade forex I would always be comparing the different pairs. It usually screwed me up more than anything. For me, its better to concentrate on one market and while I might glance over to see what oil, or gold, stocks, are doing, its more out of curiosity.. Anyways, thats just me.
I hear you Zappa.
You are going great.
I am only correlating bitcoin with sp500 at the moment even though I mentioned other instruments just for support.
We are starting to get negative candles in bitcoin now. Nothing is set in stone right now.
Proximity to the trend line is an issue for me.
I will sell the break of the low of the doji candle looking for 75.6k
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #367
  • Apr 29, 2026 6:49am Apr 29, 2026 6:49am
Hello everyone, let me introduce myself quickly, I'm brand new here.
I'm Magiix, 27 years old, french, and have been involved in crypto for a few years, but I haven't been into serious trading for very long.
I have a lot of psychological gaps to overcome, but I'm on the right track and progressing every day.
I'm currently trading Prop Firms and only in BTC to have rules to follow. They help guide me and ensure I don't do anything reckless.
I really appreciate your perspectives (Olu and Zappa), your critical thinking, and your well-reasoned opinions. It's great to be able to read and exchange ideas with others.
Until now, I've been on my own, and I think that to progress, it's important to discuss things with others!
I've already taken several of your tips and insights into my trading over the past few days. I plan to participate in your discussions from time to time, perhaps even sharing my chart, although I'm generally following your lead.
I want to try and see the same things you do and gradually develop my own style.
Thank you for your messages, in any case!
I hope to be welcome and to learn something.
I won't give up.
  • #368
  • Apr 29, 2026 7:05am Apr 29, 2026 7:05am
Price for bitcoin and sp500 as we stand now
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #369
  • Apr 29, 2026 7:14am Apr 29, 2026 7:14am
Price has retraced below yesterday high. Not looking good right now.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #370
  • Apr 29, 2026 7:23am Apr 29, 2026 7:23am
If price blows the blue line I will add to short with a tight stop
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #371
  • Apr 29, 2026 7:43am Apr 29, 2026 7:43am
Quoting MaGiix
Hello everyone, let me introduce myself quickly, I'm brand new here. I'm Magiix, 27 years old, french, and have been involved in crypto for a few years, but I haven't been into serious trading for very long. I have a lot of psychological gaps to overcome, but I'm on the right track and progressing every day. I'm currently trading Prop Firms and only in BTC to have rules to follow. They help guide me and ensure I don't do anything reckless. I really appreciate your perspectives (Olu and Zappa), your critical thinking, and your well-reasoned opinions....
Hi MaGiix
Welcome to the thread.
There is no right or wrong - only better analysis
Please post your thoughts.
I always say iron sharpens iron
Share your thoughts and people on this thread will either agree or disagree with it.
We are also trying to move away from 'I think' to evidence in the form of a chart.
You are welcome.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #372
  • Apr 29, 2026 7:47am Apr 29, 2026 7:47am
Price is teasing my sell line. I am not amused.
Even the SP500 spiked down and recovered somewhat.
Today is a day of angling because of FOMC
However it is irresponsible to cut rates right now
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #373
  • Apr 29, 2026 8:11am Apr 29, 2026 8:11am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Hi MaGiix Welcome to the thread. There is no right or wrong - only better analysis Please post your thoughts. I always say iron sharpens iron Share your thoughts and people on this thread will either agree or disagree with it. We are also trying to move away from 'I think' to evidence in the form of a chart. You are welcome.
Thanks! That's right.
And that's also the goal, to point out the errors or "things" that the person doesn't see in order to inform their judgment.
Here's my chart. I think we've re-entered the POC and the bearish TL in red of the last few days after the fakeout, of the last 12 days to confirm the downtrend, and that we're going to plunge back to the lower target of Zappa. This is in addition to the generally bearish market condition, we will see in the next minute/hour. My perspective is that of a novice, I apologize I don't want to mislead anyone!
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I won't give up.
  • #374
  • Apr 29, 2026 8:15am Apr 29, 2026 8:15am
Quoting MaGiix
Hello everyone, let me introduce myself quickly, I'm brand new here. I'm Magiix, 27 years old, french, and have been involved in crypto for a few years, but I haven't been into serious trading for very long. I have a lot of psychological gaps to overcome, but I'm on the right track and progressing every day. I'm currently trading Prop Firms and only in BTC to have rules to follow. They help guide me and ensure I don't do anything reckless. I really appreciate your perspectives (Olu and Zappa), your critical thinking, and your well-reasoned opinions....
Yes MaGiix, welcome to the thread brotha
  • #375
  • Apr 29, 2026 8:20am Apr 29, 2026 8:20am
It is FOMC day, could be a big move one way or the other, or could be some whipsaws.

I'm setting TP just below the low at 78,284....so 78200. Got a TL below I'm not liking. Still a better than 1:1 reward if TP is hit. Moving stop to b/e
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  • #376
  • Apr 29, 2026 8:30am Apr 29, 2026 8:30am
Quoting Zappa
It is FOMC day, could be a big move one way or the other, or could be some whipsaws. I'm setting TP just below the low at 78,284....so 78200. Got a TL below I'm not liking. Still a better than 1:1 reward if TP is hit. Moving stop to b/e {image}
Its good to be cautious Zappa. Today is a crossover meeting. Old chairman is out and new one in. That could itself bring some volatility and whipswaws.
My shorts are going good at the moment and I am thinking of going flat everything right now
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #377
  • Apr 29, 2026 8:32am Apr 29, 2026 8:32am
Damn. My bitcoin sell line has been breached and I am not in it.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #378
  • Apr 29, 2026 8:50am Apr 29, 2026 8:50am
Out at b/e. Going to be extra tricky today
  • #379
  • Apr 29, 2026 9:15am Apr 29, 2026 9:15am
Quoting Zappa
Out at b/e. Going to be extra tricky today
Glad you were able to exit at b/e Zappa.
Was thinking about you in this move down.
So, we are both flat now. Let's pick things up from here.
I am trade positive for today so far but I want to push my short idea conviction to the fullest.
75.5k is my immediate target
Price reclaiming the 76.5k is not good for my bearish idea
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #380
  • Apr 29, 2026 9:26am Apr 29, 2026 9:26am
im a new user and also new for trading , i monitor you guys for past 2 days actually its very helpfull first of all thank you soo much guys.. kindly help us to take a perfect trade with the help of news.. thanking you
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Olu