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Bitcoin trading calls

  • #221
  • Apr 23, 2026 12:24pm Apr 23, 2026 12:24pm
Yeah Olu, I came very close to exiting too, but decided to just let it play out. Got the stop at the high and said just give it a chance.

Definitely looking better now. Oil jumping, stocks coming down, and bitcoin back down too, still far away from where im hoping it'll go, but in the right direction at least.
  • #222
  • Apr 23, 2026 12:49pm Apr 23, 2026 12:49pm
if prices can just get down to that TL I keep talking about I think the chance of a new highs becomes much lower likelihood.

Ive got more conviction on this short than I did with the long. I dont like when im in a long position with a bunch of TLs below (or vice versa). It feels like a game of musical chairs. Everything going along great then BOOM a huge move to take out all the TLs.

If you look throughout history of Bitcoin you'll see sometimes the market does in fact run from, or ride along a TL for a huge move, but those times are rare and different than this time and what is most typical. The first shows the one time in particular that caught my eye. Notice how it was basically glued to the TL for several weeks before it fucking rocket launched into outer space. But that was a rare instance.

The 2nd chart shows another instance of a market running away from a TL, but in this case there was an explosive move to start the move away and and took a long time to even get close again. Those are the times when you dont want bet on a TL break, just the opposite in fact
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  • #223
  • Apr 23, 2026 5:25pm Apr 23, 2026 5:25pm
I just closed this out at b/e
  • #224
  • Apr 23, 2026 5:29pm Apr 23, 2026 5:29pm
Its staying above that TL, and showing some strength

Trying a long here with stop at today's low
  • #225
  • Apr 23, 2026 5:32pm Apr 23, 2026 5:32pm
Stayin above that TL and sellers just really seem to be out of ammunition.

Lets see if we can FINALLY get a real move higher
  • #226
  • Apr 23, 2026 5:46pm Apr 23, 2026 5:46pm
Quoting Zappa
Its staying above that TL, and showing some strength Trying a long here with stop at today's low
I am moving closer to your idea here.
Look at price action today
Inside day doji with all the happenings today

NB: Crude oil is going up. If it doesnt form a H&S pattern there should be a real risk off situation.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #227
  • Apr 23, 2026 5:53pm Apr 23, 2026 5:53pm
Even if we continue to just stair step our way higher the next target would be 82k. Gap is filled at 84k
  • #228
  • Apr 23, 2026 5:58pm Apr 23, 2026 5:58pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} I am moving closer to your idea here. Look at price action today Inside day doji with all the happenings today NB: Crude oil is going up. If it doesnt form a H&S pattern there should be a real risk off situation. {image}
Im not entirely sold on this long idea still, just giving it a shot. Might bail out before stop if things dont look right
  • #229
  • Apr 23, 2026 6:07pm Apr 23, 2026 6:07pm
Selloffs looking weaker and weaker each time. The weekend move lower WAS on very low liquidity.

Bounce off the break of where that battle was yesterday.

Lets see..
  • #230
  • Apr 23, 2026 6:10pm Apr 23, 2026 6:10pm
Sorry, battle was Tuesday not yesterday
  • #231
  • Apr 23, 2026 6:14pm Apr 23, 2026 6:14pm
Quoting Zappa
Even if we continue to just stair step our way higher the next target would be 82k. Gap is filled at 84k
Stair stepping. That is exactly my issue. No clean continuous trends. Just a lot of 1000 points up and same down. Like today. I my short idea plays out it will cause of trader 'suffering' before it gets there
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #232
  • Apr 23, 2026 6:25pm Apr 23, 2026 6:25pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} Stair stepping. That is exactly my issue. No clean continuous trends. Just a lot of 1000 points up and same down. Like today. I my short idea plays out it will cause of trader 'suffering' before it gets there
Makes it very difficult and confusing, which is the markets speciality. NEVER fucking easy

As traders we just have to adapt or die.

If it does plan on running away from the TLs, it could really make a big move though. Next time we deal with that bothersome TL might be at 150k or something crazy
  • #233
  • Apr 23, 2026 7:51pm Apr 23, 2026 7:51pm
Looking good so far. Hope to start seeing some big green candles soon
  • #234
  • Apr 23, 2026 8:47pm Apr 23, 2026 8:47pm
Quoting Zappa
Looking good so far. Hope to start seeing some big green candles soon
Somebody oughta take the opposite side for a scalp any time I say something like this. 100% win rate
  • #235
  • Apr 23, 2026 9:47pm Apr 23, 2026 9:47pm
That first line above will be the first hurdle we'll have to get through i think. Maybe it makes its way up there by tomorrow, hovers in the area over weekend and possibly gaps higher by Sunday CME open

The next line above is a possible place to TP if it really flies
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  • #236
  • Apr 24, 2026 4:55am Apr 24, 2026 4:55am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Somebody oughta take the opposite side for a scalp any time I say something like this. 100% win rate
I know the feeling.
And I said the same statement on another forum somewhere.
Bitcoin trading has been good to me but short term only.
Trying to fit it to my usual 'Enter right, set stop and hold for dear life till TP' has just not worked out me so far though.
I have been blessed to have some more screentime these last few days.
So I could refine my entry based on things happening on the lower TFs and exit intra-trade.
I long for my preferred methodology.

For today, this is my gameplan:
bitcoin is down 700 at the moment.
I will still be looking to go short after a retracement to try and get back to my plan - may not be today
Crude oil is rising - risk off - and we are going into a weekend where the main guy can order the dropping of some objects that can cause super damage
bitcoin trades throughout the weekend so we can respond to news and price levels
I will trade the lower TFs up or down if I can find a good entry
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #237
  • Apr 24, 2026 5:29am Apr 24, 2026 5:29am
Quoting Olu
{quote} I know the feeling. And I said the same statement on another forum somewhere. Bitcoin trading has been good to me but short term only. Trying to fit it to my usual 'Enter right, set stop and hold for dear life till TP' has just not worked out me so far though. I have been blessed to have some more screentime these last few days. So I could refine my entry based on things happening on the lower TFs and exit intra-trade. I long for my preferred methodology. For today, this is my gameplan: bitcoin is down 700 at the moment. I will...
Good morning brotha!Market started going against me (again immediately after last post on here!), would've liked to watch but I had to get some sleep. So I'm still in this long. Didn't hit my stop yet, and I'm thinking there's still a decent chance it won't. At a critical point here in my opinion, but still biased long. If stopped that might change. Still thinking we might see some big green candles soon.
  • #238
  • Apr 24, 2026 5:37am Apr 24, 2026 5:37am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Good morning brotha!Market started going against me (again immediately after last post on here!), would've liked to watch but I had to get some sleep. So I'm still in this long. Didn't hit my stop yet, and I'm thinking there's still a decent chance it won't. At a critical point here in my opinion, but still biased long. If stopped that might change. Still thinking we might see some big green candles soon.
Hello bro! Maybe my English is bad, but I would like to clarify, the cue ball is currently trading in the 77800 zone~ I am also in a long position, somewhere up to 80k today I looked at the USDTD chart and now the picture is that we are testing the trend line, and if we break it, then the long btc is canceled,what do you think ?
  • #239
  • Apr 24, 2026 5:38am Apr 24, 2026 5:38am
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Good morning brotha!Market started going against me (again immediately after last post on here!), would've liked to watch but I had to get some sleep. So I'm still in this long. Didn't hit my stop yet, and I'm thinking there's still a decent chance it won't. At a critical point here in my opinion, but still biased long. If stopped that might change. Still thinking we might see some big green candles soon.
I think you will need to hold that long. The markets have gone risk on. The nasdaq is flying and is above yesterday's high
I feel like we could attack the white line again
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #240
  • Apr 24, 2026 5:49am Apr 24, 2026 5:49am
These are most important lines I'm watching right now. If it stops me out it might go back to that TL below. Will it hold again? I have my doubts and don't want to be long at that point hoping it will. Above we have that broken TL thats been containing prices. If it makes another attempt at that line it might break to the upside this time.
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