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Bitcoin trading calls

  • #121
  • Apr 18, 2026 11:50am Apr 18, 2026 11:50am
Quoting Olu
{quote} Thanks. These little nuances are nice to know. I am a firm believer in trading a very small basket of instruments. This is so that one can feel the 'pulse' and understand the character of the market. With too many instruments you may not have the time to 'notice' these things
I just focus and trade Bitcoin only. I'll check ETH to see if things look similar, but dont do full analysis on it.

I stare at the fucking bitcoin chart all day long and STILL miss signs! I'll see them later on and be like "of course it did that you damn fool". When you're looking at every timeframe, tons of trendlines, multiple retracement levels, extensions....there's a lot of analyze! One market is all I can handle!

And on top of all that, with the 4hr charts and up its a dilemma of which scale to use, regular or log.
  • #122
  • Apr 18, 2026 12:05pm Apr 18, 2026 12:05pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} I just focus and trade Bitcoin only. I'll check ETH to see if things look similar, but dont do full analysis on it. I stare at the fucking bitcoin chart all day long and STILL miss signs! I'll see them later on and be like "of course it did that you damn fool". When you're looking at every timeframe, tons of trendlines, multiple retracement levels, extensions....there's a lot of analyze! One market is all I can handle! And on top of all that, with the 4hr charts and up its a dilemma of which scale to use, regular or log.
You put a smile on my face Zappa.
Your experience is similar to mine but I look at bitcoin, silver and sp500.
I don't use a lot of timeframes just daily hourly and 5min (only for entries)
But like you I have said the same lines you said many times.
Not to worry though your analysis is great and meaningful.

By the way, Bitcoin is showing down 1171 and 74.5k could happen. That's just yesterday's low. News is playing havoc with price
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #123
  • Apr 18, 2026 12:39pm Apr 18, 2026 12:39pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} You put a smile on my face Zappa. Your experience is similar to mine but I look at bitcoin, silver and sp500. I don't use a lot of timeframes just daily hourly and 5min (only for entries) But like you I have said the same lines you said many times. Not to worry though your analysis is great and meaningful. {image}
Thanks Olu for kind words. Glad you appreciate my analysis!
We can either laugh or cry about our mistakes. Ive done both. Important thing is to learn from them.
  • #124
  • Apr 18, 2026 12:43pm Apr 18, 2026 12:43pm
Quoting zappa
{quote} thanks olu for kind words. Glad you appreciate my analysis! We can either laugh or cry about our mistakes. Ive done both. Important thing is to learn from them.
zappa i have something to show you
  • #125
  • Apr 18, 2026 12:50pm Apr 18, 2026 12:50pm
Quoting Kobbyf
{quote} zappa i have something to show you
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Btc tapped into an important zone on h4 and is showing rejection

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Here's what I think will play out
  • #126
  • Apr 18, 2026 1:04pm Apr 18, 2026 1:04pm
Quoting Kobbyf
{quote} {image} Btc tapped into an important zone on h4 and is showing rejection {image} Here's what I think will play out
Thanks Kobbyf. We're on same page. Funny because I was just about to post these same 2 lines.

This intersection will be a spot to watch out for. A test of the broken TL and a retest of the TL. Lets see how it looks if it gets there.

In 2nd chart is what I was just bitching about. Log or regular scaling. Same exact lines, but 1st chart is regular scale and 2nd chart is log scale. Both scales seem to work
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  • #127
  • Apr 18, 2026 1:13pm Apr 18, 2026 1:13pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} Thanks Kobbyf. We're on same page. Funny because I was just about to post these same 2 lines. This intersection will be a spot to watch out for. A test of the broken TL and a retest of the TL. Lets see how it looks if it gets there. In 2nd chart is what I was just bitching about. Log or regular scaling. Same exact lines, but 1st chart is regular scale and 2nd chart is log scale. Both scales seem to work {image} {image}
im not really familiar with the log scaling but Bitcoin will make its last bearish run .just waiting for the right confirmation to enter on it
  • #128
  • Apr 18, 2026 1:16pm Apr 18, 2026 1:16pm
Quoting Kobbyf
{quote} im not really familiar with the log scaling but Bitcoin will make its last bearish run .just waiting for the right confirmation to enter on it
Definitely something you want to have a look at on longer term charts.
  • #129
  • Apr 18, 2026 1:24pm Apr 18, 2026 1:24pm
Price is trying the downside. I was looking at short around 76-76.2k area but that might be a pipe dream now
I am not chasing this. Its the weekend and the volume (participants) will be lighter than normal.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #130
  • Apr 18, 2026 1:24pm Apr 18, 2026 1:24pm
This has nothing to do with current analysis, but only noticed this recently. I was primarlity using log scale for all timeframes, and then noticed this.

These little trendlines (i guess we can call them that) seem like an afterthought. Not exactly a tradional looking trendline. But look at how price reacted to it 8 months later.

Im using 4hr because 2 connecting points this close together can be skewed if I go any higher TF. But here's what made me reconsider only using log scaling.

In 1st chart is the spot where line was connected. I cant fit the whole chart on 4hr, so in 2nd chart was where prices reacted amazingly off the line. The 2nd chart is regular scale and the 3rd chart is log scale.
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  • #131
  • Apr 18, 2026 1:35pm Apr 18, 2026 1:35pm
Quoting Olu
Price is trying the downside. I was looking at short around 76-76.2k area but that might be a pipe dream now I am not chasing this. Its the weekend and the volume (participants) will be lighter than normal. {image}
You still might get your entry Olu. Pretty close where it is right now. I guess depends what your target is, but I myself wouldn't quibble over a few hundred bitcoin dollars if my target is 1,000s away. I just get in.

Its been slowly declining along this TL on small TFs. The angle is not steep, about 45°. Hasn't gone too far from the TL either. Ive noticed that a market behaving like this around a TL can respect the TL before eventually pulling away from it. These are the type of TLs I dont worry too much about it breaking. Though a strong break would raise a red flag.

Ive made the mistake of trying to fade a move before, expecting a break of TL and it just keeps going. Something im paying attention to right now anyways
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  • #132
  • Apr 18, 2026 1:48pm Apr 18, 2026 1:48pm
Quoting Zappa
{quote} You still might get your entry Olu. Pretty close where it is right now. I guess depends what your target is, but I myself wouldn't quibble over a few hundred bitcoin dollars if my target is 1,000s away. I just get in. Its been slowly declining along this TL on small TFs. The angle is not steep, about 45°. Hasn't gone too far from the TL either. Ive noticed that a market behaving like this around a TL can respect the TL before eventually pulling away from it. These are the type of TLs I dont worry too much about it breaking. Though a strong...
True words Zappa
There are times I want to be smart and wait for a retracement to get in and price does not look back at all and end up losing on all the trade.
And there were other times the retracement idea worked like a charm and you just feel cool.
True the real consideration is the trade parameters and expectations. For all you know price action right now could be a liquidity sweep
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #133
  • Apr 18, 2026 3:37pm Apr 18, 2026 3:37pm
For me it's just how much do I want to risk on this trade. Generally the smaller the stop, the smaller the risk, and vice versa. A small stop has greater chance of getting hit, so dont want risk the same amount as I would with a bigger stop.

I try to get best entry I can too of course, but end of day the risk is the same even with slightly better entry. Thats why I usually just get in when im confident it will go a certain direction. Sometimes I do place limit orders, but not as often.
  • #134
  • Apr 19, 2026 8:23am Apr 19, 2026 8:23am
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TODAYS SETUP..
  • #135
  • Apr 19, 2026 8:31am Apr 19, 2026 8:31am
Quoting Kobbyf
{image} TODAYS SETUP..
SO basically btc is headed downwards its making a possible retracement to the downside. wait for a fib touch or a choch. ps don't enter without confirmation
  • #136
  • Apr 19, 2026 8:49am Apr 19, 2026 8:49am
Hi KobbyF
Your trendline is not resting in any price. What are you trying to say. Did you mean this trend line?
By the way it looks like the news is changing for the better as price is recovering nicely.
Even overnight gold which was to gap down 45$ has recovered to +10$ as depicted by xauusdt which moves over the weekend
Anything can happen still. Bulls and bears have a reason to trade this market
The box in the picture is saturday's price action extended to the right a bit.
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #137
  • Apr 19, 2026 8:59am Apr 19, 2026 8:59am
I'm not concerned about this move. Just a test of the broken TL I think. Expecting new lows soon
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  • #138
  • Apr 19, 2026 1:05pm Apr 19, 2026 1:05pm
Just put a TP order in at 69k.

Can see the blue rectangle being strong support and a reversal at 67,808. The gap would essentially be closed, then we have this weekends gap to fill. Should be more signs to go long around 68k by then

Thats the plan for now anyway
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  • #139
  • Edited 5:35pm Apr 19, 2026 5:25pm | Edited 5:35pm
Bitcoin is behaving as I have been talking about.
For me it's all about managing my short now.
I am looking for the lower trend line first
This instrument is super volatile though...
And we are running into some support
Daily RSI is helpful
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #140
  • Apr 20, 2026 4:32am Apr 20, 2026 4:32am
Stonking performance by price off the support line
NB:
Posted this somewhere else:
I was monitoring the support line I drew yesterday and saw the bounce off support and closed my short.
I did not open a long so missed all the upmove.
We are partially risk on or at least in a 'consideration' mode.
Almost all the usual instrument have bitten loads into their gaps
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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