Bitcoin trading calls

Hello,
Want to start a thread for sharing bitcoin CALLS and analysis, as well thoughts on how to improve performance or things you could have done better.

Not interested in starting another bitcoin thread on just where you think support/resistance is. Not very helpful in my opinion.

Please include your actual target and stop loss when making a call.

Ill start with trade Im in right now that I posted in other Bitcoin thread a couple hours ago

Took a short at 71,786 entry price
Stop is 76k
Target is 63k

I was in a long position until this morning when I was stopped at 72900 for a decent profit (again, analysis for what I was thinking at the time is in the other thread).

I was biased short after getting stopped, but wanted to wait until after the FOMC statement was out to look for an entry.

The reason for the short is based on several different factors, but main one being bitcoin inability to continue higher after breaking out of range on the 4hr.

The move higher did look a little labored to me, but sometimes it can look that way until a pop out of nowhere. That didnt happen and it started to break down instead.

Now we have some trendlines below that I think will be tested (and broken). The whole move higher looks fully tested out already, so I dont anticipate a big bounce until target is hit. But as always, I will be on lookout to spot signs that im wrong about that and try to limit risk as the move unfolds.

I always try to learn from my last trade, things i did right and more importantly, things I did wrong or missed.

Last night I was waking up constantly and checking the charts. Thats almost always a sign for me to get out. Will need to pay more attention to that in furure trades to improve.

Another thing, this morning I woke up and gut told me this did not look right (see arrow in chart for exact time I was thinking that). I dont like to wait until stop is hit if Im not feeling it anymore, but I did let it run to stop. Was still wiping the eye crusties from my eyes as I saw this, and don't like to make quick decisions immediately upon waking, but I should've listened to my gut and got out early (and reversed!).

FOMO is a weakness of mine. I figured just let it play out, but I knew at that moment the odds of getting stopped were very high. I didnt exit early just in case in turned and took off, but deep down I knew that was highly unlikely by that point.

Another lesson to trust my gut and react quickly

Ive been toying with the idea of staggering my targets. Had many good entries lately and been up a significant enough amount on them, only to see much of it disappear. That is something Ive struggled with for over 20 years now.....where to put the target???

The entry is not the hardest part, and the stop isnt either...its the target. Not to say a picking a good entry and place to put stop is easy...its not. .but its easier than deciding on a target. At least for me it is.

So the idea is to basically cut the target into 3 spots, taking a third off at each one. The thing I like about the idea is that most of the trades that go my way initially will at least get a 1/3 off in profit, cutting risk and ensuring at least some profit if I can safely move stop to b/e or better.

The thing I DONT like about it is if all 3 targets are hit, the profit will be equal to what it would have been had i just set it all at 66% of the highest target ( a significantly more likely chance of getting filled than the higher target!l. So might as well just go for the 66% target

But then theres all that only go a third of the way and fizzle out, at least Ill have some profit booked on those.

Again, I think its my FOMO getting the best of me. My natural instinct is to take full advantage of a move going my way and make the most i can, but spread out over many trades, perhaps it is more profitable to stagger the targets

Well maybe next trade ill do that. Just cant bring myself to do it on this trade. Bitcoin looks like the dominoes are about to fall and this nose dives. 63k might even be conservative. I dont care though. We're halfway through March already and I want at least one trade that goes all the way to target this month. Thinking this will be the one.

With that said, I dont want to see it hanging around here for long. I think the bulls are holding out hope that this selloff was just a move to fill the CME weekend gap. I think itll turn out to be way more than that, but I could be wrong of course. So want to see this start dropping soon. I didnt get a great entry (did start going my way immediately which is a good sign) but using a wide stop on this one. Will probably be out way before it ever gets to 76k if im wrong, and the way to do that is by watching for either confirmation I am right or warnings that I am wrong

I like to look at where its trying to turn. The first time it turned here, I thought it would, because the previous move had some impulse moves and looked pretty strong (had a break out, surprise move).

When it came back, to test, well that move itself looked pretty strong too, but it fizzled out. I see that a lot....a move starts strong then fizzled out. Like a lowercase "r" shape if its going up.

Now we're right back there and looking at the second move it just doesn't have that power that the first one had. So why would it turn here??? I dont think it will

If the fucking thing had some balls on it we'd be long gone by now on our way to 84k, but it just doesnt

Last thing i want to say for tonight (probably) is i didnt even read the FOMC statement or check if they cut/raised rates. I look at the charts. The charts tell you everything you need to know. Start mixing in fundamental analysis and and it'll screw with your technical analysis. Too much info in my opinion. Just analyze the charts. Know when news is coming out so you know when to expect volatility, but otherwise I pay no attention to it

Just closed the short. Taking too long and need a good night rest

Just reversed!
Soon as I closed the fucker finally showing some balls!

stop at 69k
target 87k

That little move it just made....

Shows me the bulls are still alive. Lets go!

Bulls coming through when they had to, the story of bitcoin, haha.

Dont think this will even go back to 70,500, but 69k is safer and close enough as it is.

Looks like it WAS just a run to fill the gap (and take stops of course).

Well im hoping we'll FINALLY get some follow through this time once we break 76k. Going to stagger the targets like I talked about. But Ill figure where exactly tomorrow. Going to sleep

One thing I didnt like about the low we had over the weekend was how bitcoin took out this low (circle in chart 1) after CME closed and then gapped higher and that same spot circled in 1st chart didnt get touched on CME until after FOMC (2nd chart)

When they run stops they want it all the greedy pigs. CME futures doesn't get off easy just becasue they are closed (actually they never get off easy, even worse because they have no control over position over weekend). So maybe this was another big hint I saw but didnt place enough importance on to know we would even come back to this area.

Well let's see what happens now. At least it makes a little more sense to me why we even had to come back here in the first place. To fuck over every last trader we can on CME of course!

Thats my theory for now anyways, Might be proven wrong before I can even finish this post.. I think ill be alright, got a pretty tight stop on it anyways, and really didnt like my entry on that short

Price came uncomfortably close to my stop (see chart), but still in this. The reason Ive got the stop at that spot is because thats where a fakeout ended and it shouldn't touch that number again.

I went long last night after I saw one semi powerful looking buy order. That told me that there are some buyers around here and it might turn soon. Jumped the gun too early, but perfection is impossible.

Stop at 69k is tight, and could've used a wider stop, but just dont think I want to be long if that spot is touched again.

Anyways this thing owes me one. I had a partial target at 76k on the long position a few days ago and it didnt get filled by less than $100.

Not out of woods on this long by any means, but there are some buyers here and the structure on 4hr doesn't look like the selloff will continue, but I could be wrong

Another close call, but such is life as a trader.

Well if this does turn here I think it'll surprise a lot of traders and Im thinking it should be explosive if its going to propel us all the way to 87-89k. Asking for a lot, I know, but it looks beyond ready at this point.

Got my fingers crossed. Lets go bulls! Where ya at!

Stop loss was hit but trying again because im just not sold on this structure. Stop at 65700

65700 stop is where i probably should of put it to begin with, but as i said 69k at time of entry seemd safe enough and was thinking i probably didnt want to still be long if it went there.

But price action and structure not suggesting to me to reverse. Still looks like it might turn here.

It looks to me like theres accumulation in this zone