EURUSD & GOLD

Excelent idea!

We will give up when the brain no longer needs training. Trading causes continuous adaptation to new situations, which is good for the brain.

And the EURUSD is preparing for a correction.

US CAPEX was high in Q4/2025, so we will see an acceleration of the US economy in the short term, probably 6 months.

I am not happy with buying gold here so I will wait

how will this impact eurusd

New All Time High

Gold is reacting to partial US government shutdown on Friday news

Ignoring RSI on daily and monthly chart

On the 8th trading day I have gone from $254 to $1860 now

How can someone expect me to leave forex now

Congratulations, Friend! I'm happy for you.

No way you're leaving FF.

Just a slow, short-term appreciation.
The EU/India agreement is expected to enter into force next year, after ratification by the European Parliament. The EU is full of bureaucracy.

The maintenance of the US interest rate, the US/EU interest rate differential and the economic data published recently tell us that the EURUSD will correct.

For Gelubrin

Catch this trail and understand what happened in gold

Microsoft crashed 12% in 6 hours
Immediately gold began the nose dive
Hedge funds coverd that technology loss from gold

Research on this topic

President Trump announced his intention to appoint Kevin Warsh as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve, which strengthened the dollar and led to a decline in gold and silver prices. Trump and Senate Democrats reached an agreement on government funding ahead of the deadline for a potential shutdown, although the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Johnson, acknowledged that there is no certainty it will be avoided.

[quote=Gelubrin;15559288]

The news appeared on the feed of a trading platform.

In my opinion, the big boys have marked the end of the month profit.

H4, two consecutive long vertical candles are extremely dangerous, the fall is imminent. However, it returned to the base: H4, EMA 200.

Someone manipulated the market that META fell by 12%. Here's why: 716:740=0.96. So around 1%. But the META price correction is normal after the strong rally that day. The manipulative story was that META's debt had increased excessively, which is not unusual for the company.

I’m basing this strictly on the figures in the screenshot and what they mean for Q4 / Meta’s current situation.

Big picture – very solid
Meta looks like a company that is:

1. highly profitable
2. very liquid
3. carrying manageable debt
4. but expensively valued on the stock market

Profitability (major strength)

1. Gross Profit: 48.99B
2. Operating Profit / EBIT: 24.75B
3. Net Income: 22.77B
4. EBITDA: 36.05B

Excellent margins. Meta operates with a level of efficiency that’s rare for a company of this size.

Important detail:

1. EBIT ≈ Operating Profit → operating costs are well controlled
2. Small gap between EBIT and Net Income → low interest + reasonable taxes

Liquidity & balance sheet

1. Cash & Equivalents: 35.87B
2. Current Assets: 108.72B
3. Current Liabilities: 41.84B

Current ratio ≈ 2.6 → very healthy
Meta has no short-term financing stress.

Debt (well under control)

1. Debt: 51.06B
2. Loan Capital: 58.74B
3. Interest Expense: 227M
4. Interest Income: 359M

Extremely important:

1. Meta earns more from interest than it pays
2. Cost of debt is negligible relative to profits

This gives Meta huge flexibility for:

1. share buybacks
2. AI investments
3. capex without financial pressure

Market valuation (this is where the “but” appears)

1. Market Cap: $1.82T
2. EPS: 8.88
3. P/E: 28.1

P/E ~28 means the market:

1. has already priced in future growth
2. has high expectations for AI / ads / WhatsApp & Reels monetization

It’s not cheap.
It’s quality growth, not value.

Operational structure

1. Employees: 67.3K

Profit per employee is exceptional
Meta remains one of the most operationally efficient tech companies in the world.

Q4 interpretation / outlook

What’s very good

Large cash position
Excellent margins
Manageable debt
Stable operating profit
Strong buyback capacity

What to watch

High P/E → vulnerable to:

1. AI disappointment
2. advertising slowdown
3. regulatory pressure

Future AI capex could:

1. temporarily reduce free cash flow
2. compress margins in the short term

Honest conclusio
Meta isn’t expensive as a business.
It’s expensive in terms of expectations.

For investors:

1. great to hold
2. not ideal to buy aggressively at any price

For traders:

1. any earnings miss → fast correction
2. earnings beat + strong AI guidance → rally

MSFT fell for reasons I mentioned a while ago: circular transactions in companies inside OPENAI. Thus, GOLD should have risen after the MSFT release, not fallen.

dxy

When this is going up on 1 hour how can gold climb. Gold has to fall