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Price Action & Order Flow (Gold|Silver|Copper)
{quote} I think price may retest 4,120 - 4,100 as demand. It seems that this is a search for liquidity and I personally maintain a bullish bias even below 4,100 since we have the quarterly and monthly VWAP at 4,080. From what I observe, the higher TF doesn't show bearish signs, the market reacted to the volumes on 4,250 which was expected. All that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the market decides to visit 4,050 for support, that would actually test the first initiated buying after the consolidation. In my opinion, 4,100 - 4,000 range maintains...
{quote} yea.. looks like they want to hit those large bids sitting at 4100s instead, can see some. which also sitting at weekly 1st vwap support.. watching if NY will go defend it. interestingly, theyre starting to go real slow at this area
- #135
- Nov 16, 2025 3:02pm Nov 16, 2025 3:02pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,203 Posts
{quote} Well, as I have understood, whatever happens to the USA will just fuel uncertainty more. Notice also the behavior of active and passive participants throughout the whole week, and how they pushed price to 4,250 just before the news hit and dropped price to the beginning of the breakout from consolidation, and placing more bids at the same zone. What is the intention here? I would say that probability favors price trading above 4.000, but if they enter into the range of consolidation then we have a problem, then the bias starts to shift....
.... I really take a simplistic view and that all revolves around AMT.I am constantly asking myself...Are we balanced or Imbalanced. I really have a short term daily view of the markets....
I dont like the word prediction...But I often think of the markets like a book... Is it easier to "predict" the outcome of the next chapter, paragraph,
sentence or word.. I go with word
....then once we have more words and sentences etc...it does give us an idea what the plot may be.So I will look at composite VPs normally a week is about it,,,and VWAP quarterly down to even a current 5m-30m bar..to gauge current value.
How does one read the market objectively? As I said a great question..and I think this may also come down to each traders personal objectives.
If I am trading a 1m or 5m ORB for ex... I may be aware of major levels around the ORB but thats about it and as we scale up in trade duration or size
perhaps its best to take in more context and confluences.
Initial Balance VP VWAP along with OHLC levels Daily Weekly Monthly... are the only tools I use and what my setups are based off of...
But again I look at the markets like a book also in the context of every picture(chart) tells a story and I have found over the years
Nuances are important..and they only come thru experience obviously.. they may be hard to quantify but they are part of the picture
I did find it interesting that Gold opened at the monthly VWAP level..1 tick off I believe As well as mostly traded within Weekly VP fair value.
Anyways Good thread and discussion !
Cheers
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
{quote} Thanks for the vote of confidence... You ask excellent questions
Market objectivity depends on the context of the situation or environment within a market.
Bluesteele takes an intraday to short-term approach, I take a short-term to mid-term approach. That should not change how one reads a market; execution may differ (subjective), but the foundation of reading the book is the same (objective).
Therefore, we never navigate a market by prediction or possibility, but by probability.
Probability is the true confidence of execution, not belief. So when I see large aggression of sellers in an environment that sustains bullish probability, how important are those sellers if all they do is get absorbed by bids that just keep stacking up?
That's what I'm talking about @dark.midas: everything is possible, but not everything is probable.
Question: What do you see and read when you look at this chart? (Big Trades filter is 50+ and DoM filter is 40+) {image}
{quote} Plenty of buy limits below… the thicker red/orange limits above seem to be SL from short sellers. Some thicker green limes likely SL from longs. If I were to take a guess, there is more orders below and the market generally flows towards pools of money. Please offer your point of view. Thanks in advance.
