US Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Unexpectedly Falls in August | Metals Mine

  • US Producer Price Index: Wholesale Inflation Unexpectedly Falls in August

    From advisorperspectives.com

    Wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell in August, with prices declining for the first time in four months. The producer price index (PPI) for final demand dropped 0.1% month-over-month after a downwardly revised 0.7% increase in July. This was well below the expected 0.3% monthly growth. On an annual basis, headline PPI increased 2.6% year-over-year, a slowdown from 3.1% in July and lower than the expected 3.3% growth. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, was down 0.1% month-over-month after a downwardly revised 0.7% increase in July. This was well below the expected 0.3% monthly growth. On an annual basis ... (full story)

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Jr123
Sep 10, 2025 12:31pm
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Quoting Trader#080B
{quote} No, that's not at all what I've said. Producers are not paying more for products. The tariffs are being paid for by foreign exporters of raw materials. They are not being passed on to domestic producers. That's why there hasn't been any inflation, despite the hysterics .
Please explain why foreign exporters would bother to ship goods to the US at a loss. Better to ship goods to more profitable countries. Just saying as a businessman.
Pretty sure they won't be shipping to the US much longer.
Reply
Schultz
Sep 10, 2025 11:22am
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Quoting Jr123
{quote} So what your saying is business's pay more for products but sell them for the same low price? Sounds like bad business and lower profits.
Trump may have had similar policies for all his casinos that went bankrupt. I'm beginning to understand.
Reply
Schultz
Sep 10, 2025 9:40am
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Quoting Trader#080B
Gah! How many times do I have to get kicked in the teeth before I stop betting against Trump? The man has proven over and over again that his policies work and that he knows what he's doing.
What Trump policy influences domestic cost of production?
Reply
Vancarbon
Sep 10, 2025 11:29am
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Surely, it’s the American importers who are paying the tariffs !

Oh , and the “ no inflation “ comment .

From the last PMI report 3 weeks ago :

While this upturn in demand has fueled a surge in hiring, it has also bolstered firms’ pricing power. Companies have consequently passed tariff-related cost increases through to customers in increasing numbers, indicating that inflation pressures are now at their highest for three
years.

“The resulting rise in selling prices for goods and services suggests that consumer price inflation will rise further above the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months. Indeed, combined with the upturn in business activity and hiring, the rise in prices signaled by the survey puts the PMI data more into rate hiking, rather than cutting, territory according to the historical relationship between these economic indicators and FOMC policy changes.”

I’m not sure I believe today’s data .
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Vancarbon
Sep 10, 2025 12:23pm
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It’s the American importers who are most certainly paying the tariffs .

I believe this report says it all : and his credentials are impeccable.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P
Global Market Intelligence:

Not sure how other people arrive at their conclusions .
Reply
Subdude
Sep 11, 2025 3:07am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#080B
{quote} No, that's not at all what I've said. Producers are not paying more for products. The tariffs are being paid for by foreign exporters of raw materials. They are not being passed on to domestic producers. That's why there hasn't been any inflation, despite the hysterics .
Okay stable genius, let's see here - imagine a hypothetical situation where this is reversed. I am making a product in US that has demand in Canada, but Canada has no real competition for my product, because they don't have domestic manufacturing of the product, at scale or with the same quality as my stuff. So, they want to import it. Now Canada declares a 20% tariff on all imports from US. Who's paying the extra tax - me, as the producer? Or some mythical American intermediary who picks up my stuff from the factory and ships it to Canada, at a loss to themselves - all to shield Canadian importers and consumers from paying the tariff?

That is effectively what you're claiming is happening as far as tariffed goods imported to U.S., raw or not.
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Subdude
Sep 11, 2025 3:11am
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It's not unexpected, it's actually expected. Remember which agency publishes these inflation numbers? It's the same one that dared to draw Trump's ire by publishing less than flattering job data last month, so he fired the chief statistician and installed his lackey in her place. What a coincidence! Well, get used to these "unexpected" positive surprises coming from this same organization, starting now.
Reply
Schultz
Sep 10, 2025 10:15am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#080B
{quote} Tariffs, and the cost of materials that go into the domestic cost of production that all the dummies in the news have been screaming about causing runaway inflation
This is why I asked, and I still don't understand your explanation.

If tariffs are included in the cost of production, why did the PPI actually fall in August?
Reply
Schultz
Sep 10, 2025 10:42pm — Edited
Permalink
Quoting Jr123
{quote} Please explain why foreign exporters would bother to ship goods to the US at a loss. Better to ship goods to more profitable countries. Just saying as a businessman. Pretty sure they won't be shipping to the US much longer.
It generally doesn't happen, but let's pretend for a moment, and I'll come back to dumping.

As has been conveyed here too many times to remember, it is to maintain market share.

This is not sustainable of course, unless there is the opportunity to diversify worldwide with deep pockets, eg, Toyota.

Maybe it was taught as a viable strategy for a normal business at Trump University, where courses in asset management and wealth creation were offered. Anyway, I'm sure that some businesses think it's a swell idea.

In industrial game theory all manner of tactics are employed in industry, some of them illegal.

Toyota may be thinking more than simply maintaining market share, since by their own admission GM and Ford are bleeding due to increased costs of components.

Toyota would have a decent defence to the anti-dumping provisions of GATT which provides that dumping is prohibited if it causes or threatens to cause material injury to a domestic industry in the importing country.

The tariffs made me do it.

Unintended consequences.

And yeah, I have no faith in the numbers either, but that is nearly to be expected for reasons. Really odd.
Reply
Trader#080B
Sep 10, 2025 10:34am
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Quoting Schultz
{quote} This is why I asked, and I still don't understand your explanation. If tariffs are included in the cost of production, why did the PPI actually fall in August?
Because the tariffs are being paid for by foreign importers (as they should be for gaining access to U.S. markets) instead of being paid for by producers and consumers. It’s similar to how sellers pay fees to list items on eBay in exchange for access to the profitable marketplace eBay has cultivated
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Trader#080B
Sep 10, 2025 11:19am
Permalink
Quoting Jr123
{quote} So what your saying is business's pay more for products but sell them for the same low price? Sounds like bad business and lower profits.
No, that's not at all what I've said. Producers are not paying more for products. The tariffs are being paid for by foreign exporters of raw materials. They are not being passed on to domestic producers. That's why there hasn't been any inflation, despite the hysterics .
Reply
Jr123
Sep 10, 2025 11:06am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#080B
{quote} Because the tariffs are being paid for by foreign importers (as they should be for gaining access to U.S. markets) instead of being paid for by producers and consumers. It’s similar to how sellers pay fees to list items on eBay in exchange for access to the profitable marketplace eBay has cultivated
So what your saying is business's pay more for products but sell them for the same low price? Sounds like bad business and lower profits.
Reply
Trader#080B
Sep 10, 2025 8:59am
Permalink
Gah! How many times do I have to get kicked in the teeth before I stop betting against Trump? The man has proven over and over again that his policies work and that he knows what he's doing.
Reply
Trader#080B
Sep 10, 2025 9:55am
Permalink
Quoting Schultz
{quote} What Trump policy influences domestic cost of production?
Tariffs, and the cost of materials that go into the domestic cost of production that all the dummies in the news have been screaming about causing runaway inflation
Reply
Trader#0BF7
Sep 10, 2025 10:08am
Permalink
Quoting Trader#080B
Gah! How many times do I have to get kicked in the teeth before I stop betting against Trump? The man has proven over and over again that his policies work and that he knows what he's doing.
Thanks for the contrarian signal - if you keep losing betting against Trump, maybe it's time for me to start.
Reply
Trader#B749
Sep 10, 2025 10:18am
Permalink
Quoting Schultz
{quote} This is why I asked, and I still don't understand your explanation. If tariffs are included in the cost of production, why did the PPI actually fall in August?
Lower the price of gas/diesel fuel, and everything else will follow.
We had $4 / gal gas for the last 4yrs, now it's 2.90, and slowly dropping
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Trader#2A20
Sep 11, 2025 1:45am
Permalink
Quoting Jr123
{quote} Please explain why foreign exporters would bother to ship goods to the US at a loss. Better to ship goods to more profitable countries. Just saying as a businessman. Pretty sure they won't be shipping to the US much longer.
I don’t think you realize just how massive the U.S. market share is. The American consumer’s purchasing power drives the global economy, and without access to the U.S. middle class, most foreign companies would collapse. Access to the U.S. is what gave Trump leverage to impose tariffs, and why they're being paid for by foreign exporters.
Reply
Trader#2A20
Sep 11, 2025 4:22am
Permalink
Quoting Subdude
{quote} Okay stable genius, let's see here - imagine a hypothetical situation where this is reversed. I am making a product in US that has demand in Canada, but Canada has no real competition for my product, because they don't have domestic manufacturing of the product, at scale or with the same quality as my stuff. So, they want to import it. Now Canada declares a 20% tariff on all imports from US. Who's paying the extra tax - me, as the producer? Or some mythical American intermediary who picks up my stuff from the factory and ships it to Canada,...
You seem frustrated that tariffs aren’t showing up as inflation, even though the mechanisms and math point in that direction. Do you normally trade your emotions? or do you trade what is?
Reply
Trader#080B
Sep 10, 2025 11:45am
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
Surely, it’s the American importers who are paying the tariffs !
Math says it's not
Reply
Trader#66AA
Sep 10, 2025 12:05pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
suggests that consumer price inflation will rise further...
Two more weeks then
Reply
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