Fed unlikely to cut rates despite pressure | Metals Mine

Fed unlikely to cut rates despite pressure | Metals Mine

Fed unlikely to cut rates despite pressure

From breakingthenews.net

The United States Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision later today, with analysts predicting that rates will remain in the current range of 4.25% and 4.50%, amid persisting uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs on global trade. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering the rates and argued for a three-point cut, adding that "each point" would save the US economy $360 billion. Notably, Washington and Brussels reached a trade deal over the weekend, lowering the tariff rate on the EU to 15%. Previously, the US also concluded a trade ... (full story)

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Jul 30, 2025 7:09am

So , let’s look at the facts :

CPI currently running at 2.7% with tariffs averaging -

Current Tariff Rate: Consumers face an overall average effective tariff rate of 18.2%, the highest since 1934. After consumption shifts, the average tariff rate will be 17.3%, the highest since 1935.

https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/...20since%201935.

Trump is calling for a Fed rate 3% lower .

Inventory run off is still occurring.Tariffs on the whole are inflationary , there are exceptions but these require other fundamentals to fall in line .

We’ll have to beg to differ on this one . I think you’re way off the mark.You’re making way too many presumptions without hard data to back up your thesis.

2

Jul 30, 2025 7:23am

Something to consider is the inflation rate relative to whatever interest rate is considered.

I think - correct me if I am wrong - the latest published annual inflation figures for the USA was 2.5%. {Correction - 2.7% - I wrote this before reading Vancarbon's post above}

The Fed rate is around 4.25 to 4.5%. Let's make it 4.37%.

In economics, only the "real" rate of interest is really relevant.

In this case it is 4.37 less 2.5 which is roughly 1.87%.

Make your own judgement as to whether 1.87% is brutally high, or whatever, in all the circumstances. I know that is the rate that the Fed considers.

1

Jul 30, 2025 8:05am

Quoting Schultz

Disliked

{quote} I guess it could depend on the data and the context from when it was chosen. Let's take data from the early 1930's and see what happens.

Ignored

that's one cherry picked context.

1

Jul 30, 2025 7:03am

Quoting CycleGF

Disliked

{quote}historically, the data has been proven Tariffs don't have much impact on Inflation.

Ignored

what?! can you gives source for that. I wonder where that ever happened.

Prices go up and inflation doesn't, how does that even make any sense.

Jul 30, 2025 7:19am

Quoting CycleGF

Disliked

{quote} Go Fetch the data for yourself... Inflation goes up due to the Supply Chain, where the Supply dont meet the Demand, and there is an overwhelming demand while the input factors such as Oil price go up that cause the cost of production go up systematically. The impact of Tariff might result into decrease in the Import or reducing the export, or relocation of the manufacturing to the US to reduce the Cost rather than Export. You guys have to do some reading, go back to school

Ignored

i blame the US education system.

Jul 30, 2025 6:40am

They cant just not cut rate because of the Pressure, that's ridiculous.... I think there is a true reason why the Role of the Fed and the way they do decision must be evaluated again. I can see a big crack in the Fed's way of doing business.

Why should the Fed Cut Rates Aggressively: Because its way way toooo high compared to other Currencies. And, the US economy is not booming, even if its growing moderately with a risk of downturn. The Tariffs are not substantial enough to impose an inflation. The current rates is just way too high and illegitimate, that really requires investigation, maybe the Fed is rigging the market....

Jul 30, 2025 6:52am

Its not about wanting to calm Trump, what Fed is doing is brutal, its imposing a break on an economy that is growing slowly. You don't want to kill a slow growth; that's not a good monetary policy. The Fed imposes high rates on an overheating economy with high inflation; the current rates just don't justify that.

Jul 30, 2025 6:53am

Quoting Vancarbon

Disliked

{quote} I’m interested in this part “The Tariffs are not substantial enough to impose an inflation.” How do you arrive at this conclusion and what level exactly do you think would be inflationary? I’ll await your reply before commenting further.

Ignored

Did you see any inflationary pressure due to Tariffs ? Where is the Data to back that up ?

Jul 30, 2025 6:59am

Quoting Vancarbon

Disliked

{quote} Why do you think the Fed is waiting ! Do you actually believe inventory run down is instantaneous ?

Ignored

Why do you think that the Fed should be proactive and innovative, on what possibly Tariffs can do, historically, the data has been proven Tariffs don't have much impact on Inflation. This is exactly, the problem, the Fed should be scrutinized on...

Jul 30, 2025 7:07am

Quoting Polimini

Disliked

{quote} what?! can you gives source for that. I wonder where that ever happened. Prices go up and inflation doesn't, how does that even make any sense.

Ignored

Go Fetch the data for yourself...
Inflation goes up due to the Supply Chain, where the Supply dont meet the Demand, and there is an overwhelming demand while the input factors such as Oil price go up that cause the cost of production go up systematically. The impact of Tariff might result into decrease in the Import or reducing the export, or relocation of the manufacturing to the US to reduce the Cost rather than Export. You guys have to do some reading, go back to school

Jul 30, 2025 7:38am

Quoting Polimini

Disliked

{quote} what?! can you gives source for that. I wonder where that ever happened. Prices go up and inflation doesn't, how does that even make any sense.

Ignored

I guess it could depend on the data and the context from when it was chosen. Let's take data from the early 1930's and see what happens.

Jul 30, 2025 5:29am

Someone cynical may prefer the headline to read " Fed unlikely to cut rates because of pressure to cut"

Jul 30, 2025 5:29am

Stop predicting lets see what they will do stop to manipulate the market

Trader#9241

Jul 30, 2025 5:09am

Short XAUUSD.

Trader#A042

Jul 30, 2025 6:39am

gigachad powell will increase the rate to troll trump.

Trader#F165

Jul 30, 2025 6:47am

0.25% cut rate imo, powel wants to calm trump admin abit, long xauusd/nasdaq

Trader#8A19

Jul 30, 2025 9:54am

Data you point is a massage one. Sounds like fed.

Trader#DB5A

Jul 30, 2025 10:00am

Let’s pray for rate cut , small one will do : )

Trader#3708

Jul 30, 2025 10:20am

Fed might surprise market with a sudden cut! Gold & bitcoin to the moon!

Trader#3A59

Jul 30, 2025 10:50am

Quoting Trader#3708

Disliked

Fed might surprise market with a sudden cut! Gold & bitcoin to the moon!

Ignored

Fed might surprise market with a sudden hike! Gold & bitcoin to hell!

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Jul 30, 2025 5:04am
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