Trump: Lower dollar makes the tariffs worth more | Metals Mine
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djyzz
Jul 25, 2025 8:50am
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That is very true. China for decades kept their currency weak in order to have a trade surplus.
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atillaken
Jul 25, 2025 8:54am
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BOJ is the biggest manipulator of FX market. But they are at the end of the roadway.
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xyzabcfoff
Jul 25, 2025 11:15am
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I'm not sure why Trump is so fixated on his trade deficit. The US is one of the largest countries in the world with probably the richest workforce in the world. Obviously people in such a country are going to buy a lot of "cheap cr@p" from overseas. If he feels the need to end that, he should probably have started by significantly reducing his budget deficit, since that is in large part financed by his trade deficit. All those USD that are exchanged for foreign ccy to buy "cheap foreign cr@p" are recycled back into the US treasury market. Reduced trade deficit = reduced bond purchases by foreigners = higher interest rates = higher ddebt financing costs.
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ffghost
Jul 25, 2025 12:00pm
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I don't really believe this will transpire, BUT........what if Trump spoke to Powell, and said "I want cuts. You want to cut, but are unsure of the tariff impact. We know the framework for China. If I make a deal with the EU this weekend, we will be able to say the two largest economic partners are now nearly certain. Take those tariff numbers and plug them into your equation, then figure out how to lower rates starting in July so I can claim a win and I will call off the dogs...for a while".

Fed cut odds are so low right now, that would throw massive fuel to the market rally. I have been holding back for the last few %, but this scenario would lead to a huge spike in /zb and likely a quick rally in equities before correcting due to overextension.

I wonder.......
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ffghost
Jul 25, 2025 1:08pm
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Quoting Trader#3731
{quote} Stocks went over two years without a pullback or a single down trend before April. We have only had three months of straight up so far. Your guess is already being priced in slightly, firms putting out 7k target for s and p.
Not sure if we are looking at the same charts, BUT, since the start of 2023 (these are estimated numbers), the /nq saw a 10% pullback in Feb 2023, an 11% pullback July > Oct 2023, 8.5% in April 2024, 17.5% pullback during the July/Aug yen unwind, followed by a rally and then another 8.5% pullback, along with multiple 5% pullbacks in between.

It may SEEM like the markets went straight up, but the reality is far from the truth. Hence why so many on here have been expecting a 5-10% pullback to "naturally" happen after such an excessive rally.

To me, the chart is looking more like the COVID recovery cycle (with a big run up on market euphoria into new highs with a little, 4% down head fake in August 2020, blasting off into Sept before the 18% correction across the rest of September (12% of which happened in 3 days).

We are not yet so far into "overbought" territory that I foresee the 20% correction coming early August, but I do suspect something is going to give within the next 3 months offering the chance to once again reload at lower levels than today. Between now and then, however, is anyone's guess.
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Blessed-man
Jul 25, 2025 9:34am
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Quoting Trader#6BDC
Weak USD means weaker USA .. how to maintain your 1st class military service
It is neither here or there

Have you not seen EURUSD @ 1.4/1.5 before, not seen GBPUSD @ 1.7/1.8 some years ago.

USD can still lose 2,000 pips against most majors (beside CHF) and will still not be at All Time High
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sanchezzz
Jul 25, 2025 9:21am
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Just a bunch of morons are selling right now. Just from the 2 minute video of Trump and Powell you could analyze yourself what really is going on. Not everybody need degrees but have some common sense.
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HonzaD
Jul 25, 2025 10:17am
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Quoting StewGnom
{quote} Not sure what TF you refer to, but USD has continously been sliding down last months, and about 10% since start of this year. To those wonder why he likes lower USD: If you are a foreigner (with f.ex. Euro) and like to buy US goods, you paid about 10% more for it in Jan. than now. If lower price for US goods (lower USD), some more competing strenght, if any, and possibly more volume sold. And it can align more to the tariffs put on top. He dont understand his own strategies and therefore all the mess and fuzz. My view on it; he is right...
But that is only the export perspective. Where you generally have two types of products on the market. Products that you can give any trade name to and people in the world will buy them because of the lower price. Typically Chinese products or for example fruit, vegetables, etc. But then you have the category of products that you buy because of the brand. Quality guarantee. And that is, in my opinion, most products exported from the USA. The weaker dollar, if you really wanted it, helps exports a little more, but it helps to the products which world wants regardless of their prices. So with a weak dollar you bring inflation to the USA. Trump claims that the USA does not need those products from abroad. That they will produce them in the USA. But tell me how, with those high wages in the USA, you can achieve the same or lower price compared to products from countries where, despite the transportation costs, the overall price is still cheaper and, moreover, with a strong dollar, no one mind. It is necessary to realize that those imported products are those that domestic manufacturers are not interested in producing and it would be inefficient for them to produce them.
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Strive2b1FX
Jul 25, 2025 11:48am
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Lower dollar means we all pay more because our buying power is lower. If other countries have currencies that are more valuable their buying power is higher which means they pay less when buying US goods in US dollars. This is Elementary math folks, Trump is an idiot.
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ffghost
Jul 25, 2025 1:10pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} You’ve been watching too much CSI I was going to say Miami vice but I know that was before your time . Back in the day it was Hawaii Five-O “Book him Danno “ , even Kojak , Frank Cannon couldn’t invent that script. Maybe , “ man called Ironside” could .
Would it sadden you to know that I have probably seen more Rockford Files (> 0 episodes) than CSI (0 episodes)? I could use one of those Hawaiian shirts though....and a nice beach on which to sit. If the dollar weren't so weak, I might be able to find some in your neck of the woods. As it stands, I'll just have to stick to my own locale for a while.
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ffghost
Jul 25, 2025 1:44pm
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Quoting Trader#A9F7
{quote} October 2023 to April 2025 there was no instance of a lower low or lower high, thus not one downtrend. SandP went from 4103 to 6147 with no downtrends. Small pullbacks but never challenged a previous low. A single digit pullback in a 50% run is normal. Pullbacks can always happen, but what is the trend? Very few realize that the higher stocks go the higher they actually have to go. We have a three month trend so far, a single digit percentage pullback now would still keep an uptrend and be way above where almost everyone predicted. 5700...
Well, I suppose I will concede to semantics then.

What follows is a curiosity on how participants view market trends and not, I repeat NOT an attack in any way shape or form (online things get touchy really quickly, and this isn't about that....)

The above being said, let me say that I agree with you on the fact that the 2023 > 2025 trend was "up". My trading horizon is a mix of longer term investments (set and forget), mid term (quarterly?) swing trades, and, primarily, scalping (in and out in minutes/hours). That's to give you a sense of how I look at markets. In that light, I am intrigued: lower low than what value(s) or lower high than what value(s)? I would argue that the Aug/Sept 2024 swing highs were "lower" than the July 2024 swing high. I would also argue that the Aug 2024 swing low was lower than the May 2024 swing low, but not lower than the April 2024 swing low (or, for that matter, than 1965, 2004, or 2011....etc swing low :-P)

Tongue in cheek commentary aside, however, couldn't one argue, if you zoom out enough, that we have NEVER had a downtrend in the US stock market?

I guess it kind of depends on your trading time horizon. For scalpers and swing traders, the expectation of one 10% pullback every ~15 months and ~3 5% pullbacks every ~12 months (especially inside of a "bull market") should be enough to help guide entries. We never quite know we're in a bear market until it confirms (at which point we bulls are likely well entrenched in positions, having expected them to bounce, as they "always".....right????.....seem to do).

Best of luck the rest of the year and have a great weekend (if I don't have the chance to address any replies before Monday).
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Windstrown
Jul 25, 2025 8:58am
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Since the creation of eu we have had stronger currency than us hmmmm. Oh well I keep saying this, but we just have to keep buying European and maybe even Asian cheaper lol. And ignore the noise lovely how very quickly Europeans forget about all of this and resume their buying american brands like it's nothing to do with them oh well. In a way trump is right. People are just outright dumb and they deserve what they get. Lines today for McDonald's burger king and KFC were off the charts in the malls here. Meanwhile 50% aluminum and wine tariffs and we have 30% of our exports to America blocked. We'll done Europeans don't act keep in your corner
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StewGnom
Jul 25, 2025 9:43am
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Quoting CycleGF
Trump wants Lower Dollar... But then why the Dollar is going up ?
Not sure what TF you refer to, but USD has continously been sliding down last months, and about 10% since start of this year. To those wonder why he likes lower USD: If you are a foreigner (with f.ex. Euro) and like to buy US goods, you paid about 10% more for it in Jan. than now. If lower price for US goods (lower USD), some more competing strenght, if any, and possibly more volume sold. And it can align more to the tariffs put on top. He dont understand his own strategies and therefore all the mess and fuzz. My view on it; he is right in this, but in all he is saying it is impossible not to hit target a few times. Like shooting flies with a shotgun. Generally, I believe he is wrong in all he clains about his beautiful high tariffs, but that is a longer and more complicated story.
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abimalik
Jul 25, 2025 9:36am
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how it will impact gold price?
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CycleGF
Jul 25, 2025 8:53am
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Trump wants Lower Dollar... But then why the Dollar is going up ?
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b_hand
Jul 25, 2025 10:22am
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Trump always make dolar keep going down.
The FED with the high rate makes strong dolar
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Strive2b1FX
Jul 25, 2025 5:12pm
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Quoting Trader#1B4B
{quote} Name a country.
The USD value keeps dropping against other countries. The Euro is more valuable than the USD. The Australian dollar is worth more than the USD. The Pound is worth more than the USD to name a few.
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xxl1ght
Jul 25, 2025 8:50am
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makes sense
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pimche
Jul 25, 2025 9:01am
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idiot let us trade o DOG pis of cake let us trade i lost 4k bc off you
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Dastan.lotfi
Jul 25, 2025 9:05am
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he is right.
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Trader#833D
Jul 25, 2025 9:34am
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Quoting Trader#6BDC
Weak USD means weaker USA .. how to maintain your 1st class military service
No it does not. US stock market is strong, and a lot of investors will always invest in USA. So cheaper dollar, more money coming in to invest.
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Trader#1509
Jul 25, 2025 10:40am
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Now he wants to be like the Japanese who been struggling with its economy for 3 decades. Then China weakens its currency to do what it does, but in turn has many social services for its people and the rents are cheap also food. To do that hear many things would have to change and the people here in America. I just don’t see without there being huge consequences homes prices rents overall.
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Trader#3731
Jul 25, 2025 12:50pm
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Quoting ffghost
I don't really believe this will transpire, BUT........what if Trump spoke to Powell, and said "I want cuts. You want to cut, but are unsure of the tariff impact. We know the framework for China. If I make a deal with the EU this weekend, we will be able to say the two largest economic partners are now nearly certain. Take those tariff numbers and plug them into your equation, then figure out how to lower rates starting in July so I can claim a win and I will call off the dogs...for a while". Fed cut odds are so low right now, that would...
Stocks went over two years without a pullback or a single down trend before April. We have only had three months of straight up so far. Your guess is already being priced in slightly, firms putting out 7k target for s and p.
Reply
Trader#A9F7
Jul 25, 2025 1:26pm
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} Not sure if we are looking at the same charts, BUT, since the start of 2023 (these are estimated numbers), the /nq saw a 10% pullback in Feb 2023, an 11% pullback July > Oct 2023, 8.5% in April 2024, 17.5% pullback during the July/Aug yen unwind, followed by a rally and then another 8.5% pullback, along with multiple 5% pullbacks in between. It may SEEM like the markets went straight up, but the reality is far from the truth. Hence why so many on here have been expecting a 5-10% pullback to "naturally" happen after such an excessive...
October 2023 to April 2025 there was no instance of a lower low or lower high, thus not one downtrend. SandP went from 4103 to 6147 with no downtrends. Small pullbacks but never challenged a previous low. A single digit pullback in a 50% run is normal. Pullbacks can always happen, but what is the trend? Very few realize that the higher stocks go the higher they actually have to go. We have a three month trend so far, a single digit percentage pullback now would still keep an uptrend and be way above where almost everyone predicted. 5700 is a very long way away, has to break that for anyone to say it’s not a bull market.
Reply
Trader#B36C
Jul 25, 2025 2:18pm
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Quoting ffghost
{quote} Well, I suppose I will concede to semantics then. What follows is a curiosity on how participants view market trends and not, I repeat NOT an attack in any way shape or form (online things get touchy really quickly, and this isn't about that....) The above being said, let me say that I agree with you on the fact that the 2023 > 2025 trend was "up". My trading horizon is a mix of longer term investments (set and forget), mid term (quarterly?) swing trades, and, primarily, scalping (in and out in minutes/hours). That's to give...
Analysis done on spx not ndx because ndx is only a handful of stocks, using a weekly chart with % scale. No previous low was ever challenged let alone broken, zero reason to think or even suspect uptrend was ending. As you stated, stocks almost always go up which is why it is illogical to bet on downtrends, they are rare, always be prepared for one but not put money on it until it is confirmed. A trend change should involve a series of lower or higher lows and highs. When we broken 5773 in April that was the first down trend since Oct 2023.
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Trader#E0F2
Jul 25, 2025 8:55am
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I don't like Trump
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Trader#1636
Jul 25, 2025 8:55am
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The US dollar's status as the world's dominant currency provides the United States with significant economic influence. Weaker dollar will have a different impact.
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Trader#6BDC
Jul 25, 2025 9:01am
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Weak USD means weaker USA .. how to maintain your 1st class military service
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Trader#A306
Jul 25, 2025 9:02am
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Time to flash crash USD.
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Trader#1AE0
Jul 25, 2025 9:18am
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Quoting xxl1ght
makes sense
In the sense that... abroad consumer will pay more dollars for European car?
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Trader#CC17
Jul 25, 2025 11:49am
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This man is a big r’at nothing else
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Trader#1B4B
Jul 25, 2025 3:39pm
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Quoting Strive2b1FX
If other countries have currencies that are more valuable
Name a country.
Reply

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